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Apolyton Civilization Forums : Powered by vBulletin version 2.0.3 Apolyton Civilization Forums > Civilization III > Civ3-Democracy Game > Intersite DG: Apolyton Team > VERY IMPORTANT: Surgical Strike on GWT's FP in 15 Turns?
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Trip is offline Trip
Firaxis Games
Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:35
Exclamation  Old Post 04-05-2004 06:29 Visit Trip's homepage!
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VERY IMPORTANT: Surgical Strike on GWT's FP in 15 Turns? Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

The idea was brought up in the chatroom about a surgical strike upon GWT's FP city Ruhrpott in a timeframe of about 15 turns.

We get Astronomy in 3 more turns, and Navigation would take us 7 (or fewer) at our current pace of ~35 GPT. This gives us 10 turns to get the necessary techs to cross the ocean. It will take 4 turns from a sea tile stationing point near Incensity to a landing site near Ruhrpott. And the really exciting thing is that until GWT gets Astronomy, a Galley has to be fortified on a single exact tile in order to spot our landing force before it can land its payload. That means the chances of GWT seeing us are very slim.

I have included a map of the invasion here. The white and green dots are the points at which our navy would pass through each turn (1 through 4 after getting Navigation). The yellow shaded area is the visibility of a forted GWT Galley - the main concern would be a GWT Galley forted at point 4, as it would be able to see our fleet at point 3. Point 4 is also the final debarkation point for our invasion force, and we then land the Knights 6 of that tile (4-4 of Ruhrpott) at the debarkation point. The following turn (whatever survives) can then attack Ruhrpott and hopefully capture and raze the city.



An important part of the plan is getting CGN to hold out in some capacity for another ~15 turns so that we can be assured that GWT won't have their main army back defending the area. While GWT is still busy with CGN we can be relatively sure that the majority of GWT's army will be tied up elsewhere. It's a long way to Ruhrpott from the front. 18 or 21 Knights on a single turn when they aren't expecting it should be a death blow.

We currently have 12 Knights and 4 Galleys capable of reaching the Incensity jumping point within a reasonable amount of time. If we wish to land, say, 21 Knights on 7 Caravels this will require us to build 9 more Horsemen and 3 Caravels, and upgrade those 9 Horsemen at 80g each and our current 4 Galleys at 20g each for a total of 800g. That's a total sum of 120 shields in our coastal cities (HoD, Hispanica and Inc can handle this pretty easily) and 270 shields in our land cities with Barracks (likewise, just Mingapulco and Bananatopia can do this with ease).

The gold is a steep cost to foot, but I believe we can handle it with full support from CGN and CFC. We can cut out 1 Caravel in the group and reduce the costs by 260g down to only 540g, but still with 18 Knights.

With GWT getting Leo's (will confirm yea or nay next turn) and their economy being far beyond our own, myself and others in the chatroom feel that this may be our best shot at delivering a crippling blow on GWT before they can get their army back to Ruhrpott to stop us.

Obviously there is a certain amount of risk involved. 18-21 Knights and 6-7 Caravels would be our entire mobile force and our entire navy. If the operation fails we will have lost most if not all of those forces. We lose some production in the few cities we dedicate to preparing the extra forces for this operation. And we will spend a lot of gold to do it.

However, I feel the potential gains are far greater than the potential losses. So we lose several hundred gold and our mobile army... we will have taken a lot of GWT down with us and given the Germans a definite fright about what else we might have cooking. GWT is still quite a ways from being able to invade us (still don't even have Theology yet) and the resources we would expend on this operation really wouldn't be all that much considering what GWT can generate once they have Leo's under their control.

I realize this is a rather unorthodox plan, and many of you may be thinking "WTF?" at first, but try to keep an open mind. If you've read my other thread on GWT's potential you should be able to see how strong they can become. They will only get stronger. E_T says that we will get stronger as well, and that us getting Leo's was a long shot anyways... well that's true. But GWT's capabilities will be far beyond our own, even a long ways into the future. They will likely hold a very large advantage up until the end of our GA... I don't believe we have that long.

Everyone please weigh in on this issue, as this is a very important issue that we must decide upon promptly!

If there is support then I will start an official poll soon. We will likely have to hold the next turn that comes our way to get this sorted out.

Additionally, if you would like to help test out how this fateful invasion might turn out, please refer to the simulation, which you can find here.

Last edited by Trip on 04-05-2004 at 12:40

ZargonX is offline ZargonX
Emperor
Space
Sep 2002
time: 00:35
  Old Post 04-05-2004 06:47
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It may be unorthodox, but it's durn well better than sitting around waiting for the pending invasion. If it works, it'll be a glorious moment in Apolyton history. If it doesn't work... well... we've overcome worse

asleepathewheel is offline asleepathewheel
Emperor
listening too long to one song
Mar 2002
time: 00:35
  Old Post 04-05-2004 06:49
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nice

desperate times...

Trip is offline Trip
Firaxis Games
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Apr 2002
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 06:55 Visit Trip's homepage!
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I've run some of the details by miccofl from CGN. He says he will do the best he can to stretch out the life of CGN to tie down GWT. He also said that he can start sending us gold next turn depending on how much we need.

We can pull this off...

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 07:25 Visit Trip's homepage!
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Here's some stats on GWT with and without their FP, compared with us. The first column of stats is GWT's with their FP intact (sim results), the second is GWT with Ruhrpott razed and the third is our stats as of last turn.

The first row is measuring a civ's GNP, the second their MFG, the third their Productivity and the fourth the GPT generated at 100% tax on the slider.

code:
Stat FP NFP APO GNP 668 638 431 MFG 216 137 152 Prod 753 532 576 MaxTax 322 171 210

Hot_Enamel is offline Hot_Enamel
Emperor
Melbourne, Australia
Aug 2002
time: 14:35
  Old Post 04-05-2004 08:06
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Lets go for it

Can we afford an investigation to see if the cities are undefended ?

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 08:10 Visit Trip's homepage!
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An investigation of Ruhrpott alone would be 138g (more probably once the city grows and more stuff is built).

conmcb25 is offline conmcb25

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Angmar
Aug 2002
time: 23:35
  Old Post 04-05-2004 08:22 Visit conmcb25<br><a href=/members><img src=/forums/images/inmate-icon.gif border=0></a><BR>'s homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Trip
An investigation of Ruhrpott alone would be 138g (more probably once the city grows and more stuff is built).


Thats a lot of money BUT it maybe the best 138 gold we ever spent.

If we can work it in and afford it we should go for it

I concur with this plan, it would be optimal IF we could time it somehow to coincide with the end of hostilities over there. I would hate for GWT to get another GL right after we attack.

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 08:40 Visit Trip's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by conmcb25
Thats a lot of money BUT it maybe the best 138 gold we ever spent.

If we can work it in and afford it we should go for it

I concur with this plan, it would be optimal IF we could time it somehow to coincide with the end of hostilities over there. I would hate for GWT to get another GL right after we attack.

The problem would be in the fact that GWT doesn't HAVE to have anything in there right now or even the turn we land... it's only the turn we attack that matters. They could have 0 units in the city one turn and 20 Muskets in it the next... and we'd have no way of knowing.

E_T is offline E_T
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Mar 2001
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 09:22
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I am working on a Major post on this, looking at everything, both Land and sea Units. ALSO the FULL Economic IMPACT from this

First things first, I'm looking at trying to get this to work as best as possible, but then Trip is also talking about dumping sheilds that have already been stored (HoD for one losing most of a Aquaduct build for 1 galley now).

I'll post more soon

E_T

E_T is offline E_T
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Mar 2001
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 09:24
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quote:
Originally posted by Trip

The problem would be in the fact that GWT doesn't HAVE to have anything in there right now or even the turn we land... it's only the turn we attack that matters. They could have 0 units in the city one turn and 20 Muskets in it the next... and we'd have no way of knowing.


Except for stuff that they are currently building right now (or will be at that time).

E_T

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 09:29 Visit Trip's homepage!
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Just got done talking with Donovan Zoi from CFC. If necessary, they can supply up to 800g in the next 10 turns! Along with CGN's financial help we can probably build as many Horsemen or Galleys as we want to have ready for this.

E_T and I have been looking at further increases in the amount of resources to pour into this. Currently, from what I can tell, we can get 8 Caravels and 1 Galley into the fray, providing 26 cargo space in the initial landing. With 1 Settler (which would be used to build a city, allowing our Knights a place to heal or retreat from quickly) that allows enough space for 25 Knights. That's 12 Knights that need to be upgraded (1 Knight can be completed in Banana next turn) for a total of 960 gold. 7 Galley upgrades would be another 140 gold for a total of 1100. We should be able to foot this bill easily.

We have enough Barracks cities to get out enough Horsemen and more that need to be upgraded. The main limiting factor is boats...

Trip is offline Trip
Firaxis Games
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 09:30 Visit Trip's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by E_T
Except for stuff that they are currently building right now (or will be at that time).

Yes, but is it worth 138+ gold?

Trip is offline Trip
Firaxis Games
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 09:33 Visit Trip's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by E_T
I am working on a Major post on this, looking at everything, both Land and sea Units. ALSO the FULL Economic IMPACT from this.



quote:
First things first, I'm looking at trying to get this to work as best as possible, but then Trip is also talking about dumping sheilds that have already been stored (HoD for one losing most of a Aquaduct build for 1 galley now).

As I just said the main limiting factor in this invasion is BOATS. We have enough cities with Barracks to pump out as many Horsemen as we need. CFC has offered 800+ gold. CGN should be able to generate that much. We do 30+ per turn. That's around 2000 gold in the next 10 turns.

The thing is that we need boats to CARRY all of that...

I'm just trying to find as many places as possible to get boats out. If we come up a few Knights short in taking Ruhrpott then those shields will seem very small...

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 09:48 Visit Trip's homepage!
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Just getting more info to see if I can confirm when/where GWT built their FP...

I asked miccofl when GWT built Ruhrpott and it was turn 120. Its borders expanded on turn 127, meaning a 2-culture improvement was completed on turn 123. Now, GWT must have rushed something there... the question is whether it was a Temple for 122 gold or their FP with a leader...

I think the answer is pretty obvious.

Master Zen is offline Master Zen
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Jan 2003
time: 23:35
  Old Post 04-05-2004 09:59 Visit Master Zen's homepage!
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while the plan seems good in theory, I just want to point out a little tidbit:

Trip, you now says that GWT will be far more powerful than us for quite some time now, yet you were gloating about Apolyton's inminent supremacy not many turns ago. Seems to me Apolyton's power is relative to the plans you have in mind?

BigFree is offline BigFree

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Oct 1999
time: 21:35
  Old Post 04-05-2004 10:00
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Let's go for it!

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 10:04 Visit Trip's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Master Zen
while the plan seems good in theory, I just want to point out a little tidbit:

Trip, you now says that GWT will be far more powerful than us for quite some time now, yet you were gloating about Apolyton's inminent supremacy not many turns ago. Seems to me Apolyton's power is relative to the plans you have in mind?

Meh... the main killer for me was in GWT getting Leo's so early. As long as we had a chance to get Leo's (or GWT not getting it for at least 30+ turns) I believed we had enough time to get things going without GWT building up too much. Now that GWT is going to get the wonder so early I think the chances of that are greatly diminished. The economics of the situation now simply do not favor action far in the future.

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 10:06 Visit Trip's homepage!
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I will start an official 2 or 3-day vote on this issue tomorrow evening.

E_T is offline E_T
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Mar 2001
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 10:13
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First off, this need more than 1 day of discussion to go to a poll so soon, IMHO. If need be, we can see about getting both CFC and CGN to hold the save for as long as they can

* E_T runs to UN to see if CFC has already passed the save on yet

Good, CFC hasn't posted that they have played their turn. We need to get them to hold it for one more day, if need be.

E_T

E_T is offline E_T
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 10:17
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Wouldn't CGN be better off using it's cash to help keep GWT/GCA from taking them out sooner?? The more they can keep GWT occupied, the longer we might have to get this stuff into place.

E_T

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 10:25 Visit Trip's homepage!
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The success of our operation is more important than them delaying. That having been said though, depending on how well/poorly they're able to stand up to GWT they should definitely spend more of their cash on their defense... keeping GWT occupied for long enough is one of the most important facets of the plan.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
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Aug 2001
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 10:40
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Yowzaa.

That is just the sort of bold dash for glory that we may need.



Not a big fan of the investigation though. It's freekin obvious where their FP is, and I doubt they have enough within a turns movement to stop 20 keniggets.

Master Zen is offline Master Zen
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 10:49 Visit Master Zen's homepage!
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well first of all, the only person who had any illusions on getting Leo's was YOU Trip, it was quite obvious that any team with even a remotely decent skill at playing Civ would've vied for that wonder given the huge advantage they had over us in getting it.

Anyway, I shudder to think what would happen if we keep CGN alive, we trash Rhurpott, and then they get a leader and build their FP again. All in all, the only result of this is that we'll be getting our ass invaded shortly afterwards.

REGARDLESS of this though, I think the plan is sound, but it needs far more discussion before we even begin to implement it.

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 10:56 Visit Trip's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Master Zen
well first of all, the only person who had any illusions on getting Leo's was YOU Trip, it was quite obvious that any team with even a remotely decent skill at playing Civ would've vied for that wonder given the huge advantage they had over us in getting it.

E_T made plans for building it. So obviously not EVERYONE was COMPLETELY resigned to the fact that we would not get it. Again, I too thought it was unlikely that we would get it, but I didn't believe GWT would get it so soon.

quote:
Anyway, I shudder to think what would happen if we keep CGN alive, we trash Rhurpott, and then they get a leader and build their FP again. All in all, the only result of this is that we'll be getting our ass invaded shortly afterwards.

There's really not much we can do about that, except try to time things so that the major fighting with CGN ends at a certain point (eliminating chances for leaders) and then we land before GWT's army can return. A very thin margin of error. It's better to risk hitting early and them getting another leader (still unlikely... more unlikely than GWT getting their army back and being able to stop our landing anyways...).

quote:
REGARDLESS of this though, I think the plan is sound, but it needs far more discussion before we even begin to implement it.

Well, we can't really hold the turns indefinitely. CFC seems to be holding for a bit, and I asked miccofl to hold CGN's turn for 24 hours. We can do so with ours as well. GWT usually takes about a day by themselves anyways. That's quite a bit of time before the next turn has to be shipped off.

The main issue is that if we wish to begin implimenting this plan, we need to do so next turn. Every turn we wait directly translates to a turn delay.

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 11:18 Visit Trip's homepage!
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New image plan is up in the first post.

No more desert tiles.

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  Old Post 04-05-2004 11:38
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It also has a better approach.

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 11:41 Visit Trip's homepage!
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We could also go directly north the first two turns and then directly east after that (probably the best approach path).

I mainly wanted to show the dimensions and #s of tiles we're working with.

E_T is offline E_T
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 11:47
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quote:
Originally posted by Trip
Just got done talking with Donovan Zoi from CFC. If necessary, they can supply up to 800g in the next 10 turns! Along with CGN's financial help we can probably build as many Horsemen or Galleys as we want to have ready for this.


please post the chat logs

quote:

E_T and I have been looking at further increases in the amount of resources to pour into this. Currently, from what I can tell, we can get 8 Caravels and 1 Galley into the fray, providing 26 cargo space in the initial landing. With 1 Settler (which would be used to build a city, allowing our Knights a place to heal or retreat from quickly) that allows enough space for 25 Knights. That's 12 Knights that need to be upgraded (1 Knight can be completed in Banana next turn) for a total of 960 gold. 7 Galley upgrades would be another 140 gold for a total of 1100. We should be able to foot this bill easily.


I have been looking at seeing what I can do to get things set up for this. I have also been looking at the implications, both economically and others, for the future.

Trip has been having dreams of pillaging and rampaging around the chatroom....

quote:


We have enough Barracks cities to get out enough Horsemen and more that need to be upgraded. The main limiting factor is boats...


More on that later....

E_T

Last edited by E_T on 04-05-2004 at 11:56

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 04-05-2004 11:52 Visit Trip's homepage!
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I'm currently working on a simulation of all the possible situations we may find ourself in. It's going to be a PBEM game where you can either take on GWT (counterattacking) or Apolyton (trying to take Ruhrpott), each situation with a different number of forces on each side (determined by the tester).

 
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