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DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:35
  Old Post 07-05-2004 19:11 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Economy adds 625,000 jobs in last 2 months Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

Good news. Now back to work!

quote:
Jobless Rate Falls as Hiring Picks Up

By Leigh Strope
AP Labor Writer
Friday, May 7, 2004; 10:03 AM

Employers added 288,000 jobs to their payrolls in April as the nation's unemployment rate slipped to 5.6 percent, reinforcing hopes for a sustained turnaround in the jobs market that had lagged for so long.


Payrolls have risen now for eight straight months, with 867,000 new jobs created so far this year, the Labor Department reported Friday. The strengthening jobs market comes just in time to aid President Bush's re-election efforts, which were in question a few months ago based on his economic record.

"I'm officially declaring the jobless recovery dead," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. "I think we are now on a path of what will be substantial job gains."

Bush is on track to be the first president since the Great Depression to have lost jobs under his watch. But the hiring gains in recent months have shrunk those losses to about 1.5 million. His administration was widely criticized for an overly optimistic forecast that 2.6 million new jobs would be created this year. Economists now say the chugging economy could get close to that mark.

"I don't think these two months of big increases are a flash in pan," Mayland said of April's job growth and the revised 337,000 new jobs in March.

Despite the recent encouraging news on both jobs and economic growth, public support for Bush's handling of the economy was at 43 percent early this month, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll. That was the lowest number since Ipsos-Public Affairs began tracking that question in 2002.

Bush on Friday was touring by bus two Midwestern states he narrowly lost during the 2000 election -- Iowa and Wisconsin -- carrying a message of job gains amid the economic upswing he contends has been sparked by lower taxes. Bush rode the bus through parts of Michigan and Ohio earlier in the week.

Democrats said Bush shouldn't get a pass for Friday's positive economic news,

"The job creation picture may finally be brightening, but wages are stagnating and gas prices are soaring, so we still have a long way to go before workers begin to feel the effects of this recovery," said Rep. Pete Stark of California, the top Democrat on the Joint Economic Committee.

"We still have a jobs deficit and long-term unemployment made history last month by hovering at 20 percent for more than a year and a half. These are not the kind of records the President should be setting at this point in a recovery," he added.

n the report, hiring was widespread last month, with the service sector leading the way. Professional and business services employment rose substantially, by 123,000. In that category, gains were in employment services, including temporary help firms, services to buildings and dwellings, management and technical consulting services and architectural and engineering services.


The nation's struggling factories also appear to be turning around. Based on Labor Department revisions, the manufacturing sector added jobs for three straight months, including 21,000 in April. For the year, manufacturing payrolls are up by 27,000 overall.

The unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 5.6 percent last month, after reaching a high of 6.3 percent in June 2003 during the economic slowdown.

Revisions to payrolls also showed a stronger jobs market than previously reported. Last month's 308,000 payroll gains were revised up to 337,000. April's showing surprised analysts, who had expected payrolls of about 180,000 to 200,000.

The economy has rebounded strongly, but companies, under intense pressure to compete globally, have been holding down their costs by working employees harder instead of hiring new ones. That appears to be changing, though critics note that job gains are occurring in the lower-paying service sector at retailers and restaurants, and in temporary employment firms.

The Federal Reserve decided Tuesday to hold a key interest rate at a 46-year low of 1 percent, saying said such low rates along with productivity gains are helping to support economic activity.

But the strengthening jobs market leads economists to anticipate the first rate increases in more than four years will start this summer, probably in August, and will come in the form of one-quarter of a percentage point rises in the federal funds rate.

Other gains in April occurred in retail at building and garden supply stores, general merchandise stores and motor vehicle and parts dealers. The leisure and hospitality sector also added jobs, especially in the category of food services. Hiring also continued to be strong in health care and social assistance for the month.

Last edited by DanS on 07-05-2004 at 19:39

chegitz guevara is offline chegitz guevara
King
Ft. Lauderdale, FL Communist Party of Apolyton
Jun 2000
time: 00:35
  Old Post 07-05-2004 19:44 Visit chegitz guevara's homepage!
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Hey, two months in a row. Maybe this is real.

Now watch the Fed raise rates later this year and kill it.

JohnT is offline JohnT

Emperor
Capitalist
Mar 1999
time: 00:35
  Old Post 07-05-2004 19:51
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I don't know about the rest of the economy, but I just signed a $250,000 contract to deliver over a half-million directories in the Louisville, KY market.

DanS is offline DanS
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  Old Post 07-05-2004 19:52 Visit DanS's homepage!
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The economy couldn't grow at this pace for very long without creating inflation. Barring unforseen circumstances like a very large terrorist attack, the Fed will have to raise rates soon.

But that's a situation you want to be in. Raising interest rates is a good sign.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
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  Old Post 07-05-2004 19:54 Visit DanS's homepage!
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quote:
but I just signed a $250,000 contract to deliver over a half-million directories in the Louisville, KY


Good show. Let the good times roll!

chegitz guevara is offline chegitz guevara
King
Ft. Lauderdale, FL Communist Party of Apolyton
Jun 2000
time: 00:35
  Old Post 07-05-2004 19:56 Visit chegitz guevara's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
But that's a situation you want to be in. Raising interest rates is a good sign.


That's what they said in 2000. We're only just recovering from that. Raising rates means slowing job creation or cutting jobs because too many people employed puts pressure on bosses to raise our wages.

JohnT is offline JohnT

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Capitalist
Mar 1999
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  Old Post 07-05-2004 19:58
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Raising rates also gets us away from the situation (well, one of the situations) that had Japan in a slump in the nineties. There is a time value to money and there's no getting around that, despite what MITI might want.

DanS is offline DanS
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  Old Post 07-05-2004 19:59 Visit DanS's homepage!
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quote:
That's what they said in 2000. We're only just recovering from that.


Well, there was a real bubble economy in 2000 that needed adjustment in the worst of ways. We don't have that now. [Cue Hershell]

Besides, these interest rates are the lowest since 1958. This can't last forever.

Ogie Oglethorpe is offline Ogie Oglethorpe
King
Marietta, GA
Dec 1999
time: 05:35
  Old Post 07-05-2004 20:00
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GePap in 3...2...1....

DanS is offline DanS
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  Old Post 07-05-2004 20:02 Visit DanS's homepage!
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GePap's like a rain cloud for hire.

chegitz guevara is offline chegitz guevara
King
Ft. Lauderdale, FL Communist Party of Apolyton
Jun 2000
time: 00:35
  Old Post 07-05-2004 20:23 Visit chegitz guevara's homepage!
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I know we have to raise rates eventually. But do you really think they should be doing it so soon? The economy won't even be back to previous levels of employment until next year, that doesn't include population growth. I know the Fed is fixated on 5% unemployment being the magic number, but 4% was way cooler.

Whoha is offline Whoha
King
The TOC is supposed to be classified guys...
Dec 2001
time: 23:35
  Old Post 07-05-2004 20:57
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quote:
Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Hey, two months in a row. Maybe this is real.

Now watch the Fed raise rates later this year and kill it.


The fed can't raise rates, they said they would this month, and did not.

If they do it will kill Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, several foreign governments,etc.

Of course Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are going down!

Az is offline Az
King
MACEDONIA - It's the name of the sovereign country to the north of Greece
Apr 2000
time: 07:35
  Old Post 07-05-2004 21:01
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Yes, don't raise interest rates. Then the CB will have to do the same here.

VJ is offline VJ
Prince
Helsinki
Dec 2001
time: 07:35
  Old Post 07-05-2004 22:18
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Good news for both the USA and Bush.

Now all he's gotta do is to pull back the troops from Vietnam, and the future of the US will look decent again.

GePap is offline GePap
King
of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:35
  Old Post 07-05-2004 22:57
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Hey, nice news, only about 135,000 less than would have normally been created during the laste 90's in the same period! At this rate, Bush will only have to answer for a million less jobs!

DinoDoc is offline DinoDoc
Emperor
AECCP loves Democracy
Sep 1999
time: 23:35
  Old Post 07-05-2004 23:02
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Right on cue.

JohnT is offline JohnT

Emperor
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Mar 1999
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  Old Post 07-05-2004 23:03
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... but I thought the 90s were the sort of unsustainable bubble that you...

Oh, but that would require consistancy. Never mind.

GePap is offline GePap
King
of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:35
  Old Post 07-05-2004 23:07
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quote:
Originally posted by DinoDoc
Right on cue.


Never miss an invitation.

Notice How I didn;t even mention the drop in consumer confidence a bit, record oil prices, or the fact the trend is still upward but weaker than the month before...

I don't want to spoil the party.

quote:
... but I thought the 90s were the sort of unsustainable bubble that you...

Oh, but that would require consistancy. Never mind.


If you can quote any attack I made towards the 90's bubble in job creation, feel free to hunt for it.

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:35
  Old Post 07-05-2004 23:27 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Hey, just because your man counted on bad economic times in order to run his campaign doesn't mean you have to find the negative in 625,000 more people having jobs this month than two months ago.

Lawrence of Arabia is offline Lawrence of Arabia
King
of the Gulag Archipelago
Apr 2001
time: 06:35
  Old Post 07-05-2004 23:30
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is this net or just jobs created?

GePap is offline GePap
King
of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
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  Old Post 07-05-2004 23:35
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS


Hey, just because your man counted on bad economic times in order to run his campaign doesn't mean you have to find the negative in 625,000 more people having jobs this month than two months ago.


Now, if we take into account at least 100,000 more people join the workforce every month simply due to population growth, were are talking then about 425,000 who were not new to the job market getting jobs back basically.

As for "bad economic times", Bush is still t a net negative. Two, these are "good times" relative. Maybe we got spoiled by the last decade, but given the increase in commodities, i doubt overall people find times that good to give Bush any credit for it.

Comrade Tassadar is offline Comrade Tassadar
Settler

Aug 2005
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  Old Post 07-05-2004 23:35 Visit Comrade Tassadar's homepage!
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This is unfortunate.

DanS is offline DanS
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  Old Post 07-05-2004 23:40 Visit DanS's homepage!
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quote:
is this net or just jobs created?


Net.

laurentius is offline laurentius
King
Helsinki, Finland
Jun 2001
time: 07:35
  Old Post 08-05-2004 00:00
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One thing. Whats the use of having a job if you still cant make a living? A fact is that if continous high unemployment is Europes problem, USAs problem is that people cant make living even if they have jobs. Also the long term unemployed has far higher standard of living in here compared to the low paid american worker. The point? Is that these numbers are relative and may have very small impact to for example national private consumpsion or demand. Employment numbers are pretty worthless overall because those numbers are directly dependant on the way theyr calculated, and this varies from country to country a lot, even different institutions inside a nation can calculate unemplyment in different terms.

Japher is offline Japher
Prince
Ook! Ook! Ack! Ack! Ack!
Jun 2002
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  Old Post 08-05-2004 00:01
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quote:
GePap's like a rain cloud for hire.



I like that... sig material, but alas, I will not taint my sig.

quote:
Economy adds 625,000 jobs in last 2 months


I blame Bush!!!

GePap is offline GePap
King
of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
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  Old Post 08-05-2004 00:24
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Add it to your sig..Everyone knows I am the blessed lifegiver

DanS is offline DanS
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  Old Post 08-05-2004 00:55 Visit DanS's homepage!
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laurentius: that's a lot of issues to pick through and it's especially difficult to come to any meaningful conclusions when you are trying to compare countries with dissimilar economic structures like Finland and the United States.

Suffice it to say that there are a lot of low paying and temporary jobs among those 625,000. Then again, there are a lot of high paying permanent jobs too. All (or at least the vast majority) represent an honest day's wage. I would much rather that we have those low paying and temporary jobs than not have them. It's really a no-brainer. Those kinds of jobs have been helpful to me personally in the past.

Last edited by DanS on 08-05-2004 at 01:04

chegitz guevara is offline chegitz guevara
King
Ft. Lauderdale, FL Communist Party of Apolyton
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  Old Post 08-05-2004 07:00 Visit chegitz guevara's homepage!
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According to Now with Bill Moyers, new jobs in the U.S. are paying an average of 21% less. How can the Fed possibly be worried about inflation if wages are falling!?!

Jaguar is offline Jaguar
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Montgomery County, MD
Apr 2000
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  Old Post 08-05-2004 07:02
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When it crosses 1 million next month, GePap still will argue that we are in the greatest bear economy since 1932.

chegitz guevara is offline chegitz guevara
King
Ft. Lauderdale, FL Communist Party of Apolyton
Jun 2000
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  Old Post 08-05-2004 07:11 Visit chegitz guevara's homepage!
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Technically he'll be right, if jobs cross the 1 million mark.

 
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