06-06-2004 03:51									#481
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Kucinich, US states aren't sovereign, you idiot. You like The southern State's Rights wackos in the early 1800's.

	06-06-2004 04:02									#482
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quote: The Tories cannot truely return from the wilderness until they build some bridges there

Why?

They can form a majority government with just the West and Ontario.

Ou est Lafontaine? Il n'est pas la.

	06-06-2004 04:27									#483
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In honour of Rappin' Ronnie:

President Heckled In Parliament

"When Irish eyes are smiling..."

	06-06-2004 04:33									#484
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I'm certain that people in Alberta did not enjoy being governed without representation from around here. I'm positive that the people of Quebec (especially certain groups of them) will see the problems very quick.

I really would not like to see a majority that had no representation from Quebec. It is mathematically possible, but not desirable.

OTOH, I don't suppose there is any reason they could not name a non-MP or two to cabinet. However, there would still be a problem with perception.

Of course, there is also the small problem of having to get 2/3rds of the rest of the seats if you get none in Quebec, and that ain't gonna happen with any frequency.

	06-06-2004 07:02									#485
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by Odin Kucinich, US states aren't sovereign, you idiot. You like The southern State's Rights wackos in the early 1800's.

Yes, they are. That is per the very definition of a federal government - a federation of sovereign States. The federal government is also sovereign, and within constitutional limits is superior to the States.

	06-06-2004 09:16									#486
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Go look up ghe sdefiniton of sovereing you twit.

Sovereing means habving sono superior authority over you.

	06-06-2004 09:18									#487
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The states aere nort sovereing,. If they were they would have had the authoirity to secede. The y didn't s o they aren't sovereing. They once were (\in the 18th scensturty) mbut they no laonger are.

	07-06-2004 04:07									#488
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BC:

17 CON
14 LIB
3 NDP

ALB:

24 CON
2 LIB

Prairies:

18 CON
10 LIB

Ontario:

56 CON
35 LIB
11 NDP
1 GRN (York South!)

Quebec

63 BQ
11 LIB
1 CON

Maritimes

18 LIB
10 CON
4 NDP

North:

2 LIB
1 CON

(Only a 1 seat swing from last election.)

TOTALS:

127 CON
92 LIB
63 BQ
18 NDP
1 GRN

Cool.

CON minority government. They only need another 30 seats to form a majority.

	07-06-2004 04:10									#489
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BK, you are clearly insane.

	07-06-2004 04:15									#490
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What are your numbers, Jon?

	07-06-2004 04:20									#491
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quote: BK, you are clearly insane.

Yes, I rely too much upon the Ipsos-Reid polls that give the Greens more than 10% support in BC.

Besides, are you going to be busy next weekend Joncha? I'll be working through the week, but I ought to be able to do a polymeet during the weekend.

	07-06-2004 04:42									#492
	Re: Some smile! Full PM-box? Change here!

oops! Posted my half-done prediction by mistake...

	07-06-2004 04:45									#493
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi Besides, are you going to be busy next weekend Joncha? I'll be working through the week, but I ought to be able to do a polymeet during the weekend.

I'm not sure... I'm still getting settled here. But either next weekend or the following one sounds good. I'll send you a PM when I have a better idea.

	07-06-2004 04:46									#494
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Cool.

It should be the truth, the prediction that comes between both of ours.

	07-06-2004 05:06									#495
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As requested:

code:
British Columbia
LIB    7 
CON   17 
NDP   12 

Alberta
LIB    2 
CON   26 

Saskatchewan
LIB    1 
CON    8 
NDP    5  

Manitoba
LIB    5
CON    5
NDP    4

Ontario
LIB   50
CON   44
NDP   12 

Quebec
LIB   31
BQ    44 

New Brunwick
LIB    7
CON    2
NDP    1

Nova Scotia
LIB    4
CON    3
NDP    4

Prince Edward Island
LIB    4

Newfoundland & Labrador
LIB    5
CON    2

Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut
LIB    3


TOTALS
LIB  119
CON  107
BQ    44
NDP   38

	07-06-2004 05:09									#496
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quote: LIB 31

Seems this is the largest difference in our tallies. The rest is remarkably similar.

Are you counting for the Bloq support to be concentrated heavily in a few ridings to squander their massive lead in the polls? The Liberals only have 28% support, compared to the 44% for the Bloq.

	07-06-2004 05:11									#497
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The only things I would argue with Jon about are the Liberal numbers in Quebec and Ontario. They don't jive with what I am hearing from here and there.

I'm sort of wondering how the Liberals could grab more seats with a lower percentage of the vote in Ontario. I am also led to believe the level of pissed-offishness in Quebec is greater than Krazy grants and that the Bloc could well get more seats there, or perhaps a Conservative or NDP victory or 3.

	07-06-2004 05:14									#498
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NYE:

The NDP are only sitting at 6% in Quebec, only 2 ahead of the Greens.

Conservatives are now up to 13%, which holds some promises.

When I did my analysis I get a fair number of seats with the Bloq dominating and the Conservatives finishing second.

	07-06-2004 05:14									#499
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Go look up ghe sdefiniton of sovereing you twit. Sovereing means habving sono superior authority over you.

No, it doesn't. The United States are a federation of sovereigns - hence the federal government. It is the very nature of such a federation that the federal government is supreme to the individual state governments within certain constitutional limits. Go read up on US History, OK? Especially some of the stuff from the people who lived at the time the Constitution was written.

	07-06-2004 05:19									#500
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi NYE: The NDP are only sitting at 6% in Quebec, only 2 ahead of the Greens. Conservatives are now up to 13%, which holds some promises. When I did my analysis I get a fair number of seats with the Bloq dominating and the Conservatives finishing second.

I'm going on reports of anglo federalists so pissed off they said they might vote Bloc. When the electorate is that volatile, all that has to happen is a credible alternative from the NDP or Conservatives emerge for that fury to coalesce around in the Montreal - western border areas (or where ever else the federalists are a large majority).

I see the NDP having as good a chance at that as Harper. Maybe more. The French language debate could prove decisive.

	07-06-2004 05:22									#501
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I went through and looked at it riding-by-riding as much as possible. I think 40+ seats constitutes a Bloc landslide, and I'm not sure what other ridings they could win. With Liberal support sagging so much, the Conservatives or even the NDP [ ] might be able to pick off one of their seats, but I doubt it.

I really think my projection is about as far as the Liberals can sink this time out. They may even see a rebound as more voters take a critical look at Harper. I was generous in giving so many Ontario seats to the Conservatives, by election time it may be down to 20 or so.

My "hedged" outcome is this:

code:

Liberals        120-140
Conservatives   90-110
Bloc Quebecois  40-50
NDP             30-45

	07-06-2004 05:22									#502
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quote: I'm going on reports of anglo federalists so pissed off they said they might vote Bloc

I really don't think this is realistic. They're a lot more likely to send a message by voting Conservative than Bloc. The polarisation against the Bloc by anglo voters is not something that will change in the foreseeable future.

Do you have any poll numbers backing this assessment up or is this relying on anecdotal "evidence"?

	07-06-2004 05:23									#503
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500 posts

time to die, thread

	07-06-2004 05:25									#504
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45 seats is a Bloc landslide. Every seat over and above that must come due to significant vote-splitting between the Grits and Tories. Above 55 seats is like claiming that the moon's made of green cheese...

Same reason the Liberals can't win more than 45 seats in Quebec...

	07-06-2004 05:26									#505
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The new thread can be found here.

	07-06-2004 05:28									#506
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quote: I see the NDP having as good a chance at that as Harper. Maybe more. The French language debate could prove decisive.

That would be something to see.

I can't see any reason why folks in Quebec would favour the NDP over the Bloq or the Liberals.

	07-06-2004 05:28									#507
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse I really don't think this is realistic. They're a lot more likely to send a message by voting Conservative than Bloc. The polarisation against the Bloc by anglo voters is not something that will change in the foreseeable future. Do you have any poll numbers backing this assessment up or is this relying on anecdotal "evidence"?

Some anecdotal, and I admit I am not an expert on Quebec or Ontario politics, by any means. However, the poll I posted just a way back in this thread had the Tories 3 points ahead of the Liberals in Ontario. Also, it is reported that the fury with the Liberals over the Sponsorship mess is highest in Quebec, not sure of where those polls are though.

What happens in ridings with a significant minority of potential Bloc supporters if the federalist vote splits between die-hard Liberals and the Tories / NDP?

	07-06-2004 05:30									#508
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi That would be something to see. I can't see any reason why folks in Quebec would favour the NDP over the Bloq or the Liberals.

They're not seperatists, but they're severely pissed at the Liberals while not liking the Conservatives? Sounds like NDP to me.

	07-06-2004 05:31									#509
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quote: What happens in ridings with a significant minority of potential Bloc supporters if the federalist vote splits between die-hard Liberals and the Tories / NDP?

The conservatives win in that situation, since they might stand at 15% or so.

Oddly, the Conservatives stand higher in some of the Bloq seats than the ones controlled by the Liberals.

	07-06-2004 05:39									#510
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Some anecdotal, and I admit I am not an expert on Quebec or Ontario politics, by any means. However, the poll I posted just a way back in this thread had the Tories 3 points ahead of the Liberals in Ontario. Also, it is reported that the fury with the Liberals over the Sponsorship mess is highest in Quebec, not sure of where those polls are though. What happens in ridings with a significant minority of potential Bloc supporters if the federalist vote splits between die-hard Liberals and the Tories / NDP?

About 10 seats which are majority federalist might be affected. It happened in 1993. 20 seats or so have so little Bloc support that to ask for them to go BQ is silly.

The problem with this scenario is that the new Conservatives have really not done anything to endear themselves to French Canadians. This is the demographic that's important in aforementioned weakly federalist ridings.