25-05-2004 08:28									#1
	Canadian Election: It's On Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

I'm sort of surprised no one has posted this yet.

What we know so far.

Ipsos-Reid, CTV, May 21
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNe...ion2004&no_ads=
Libs 35%
Tories 26%
NDP 18%
Greens 5%

In Quebec
Bloc 50%
Libs 28%
NDP 8%
Tories 7%

Undecided not reported

Ipsos-Reid should have the Liberals well out of majority country, but for no other party topping 30% they are predicting a range for the Liberals that would result in a majority.
However, if NDP and Tory support is concentrated enough there could be an upset. Chop 20 seats off the Liberals in Ontario, and 10 in Quebec, and we are looking at a minority government. Obviously then, rural Ontario for the Conservatives and the areas open to NDP support are the critical battlegrounds.

Some things that the pundits are ignoring, mostly, but that could be interesting. My money would be on a slightly better showing for the Tories and NDP in Quebec than the polls show now. I'd look for 2 or 3 Tories and maybe an NDP candidate to win. The word is volatile. A lot could happen in Quebec and Ontario in the next 5 weeks.

Also, the good people of BC are completely capable of rewarding the Greens with their first MP ever. Again, volatile. People are PO'ed and a Green MP is just the sort of thing that some riding in BC might pick as an answer.

Other factors. With new election finance laws coming into effect where each party receives modest funding per vote cast for them, there is no such thing as a meaningless vote any longer. Sure, some kind of proportional representation might be better, but at least the fringe parties, and the wanabe national parties who aren't there yet, have a reason to give supporters to show up and cast a ballot. That's a drum the Greens are being wise to bang on.

Quotes of the day:

Harper's idea for a new Liberal slogan: "Tax me, I'm Canadian."

Layton on Martin and democratic reform (paraphrased): The Liberals should go for the 2010 Olympics. Martin could save a bunch by simply appointing the medal winners.

Last edited by notyoueither on 25-05-2004 at 08:50

	25-05-2004 09:55									#2
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I think it'll be an interesting election. I think the NDP will double its seats, and the Bloc and Conservatives will pick up at least 10 more each. That leaves the Liberals in a pretty precarious position.

	25-05-2004 10:12									#3
	Suffering from ads?

Yep. I see the NDP as the big winners so far. Them and the Bloc. Harper is fighting off Liberal attacks so far, while trying to dish some out as well. Hopefully he can get a bit more snappy, and wrest the intiative away.

To be honest with you, Martin is plumbing the depths of my disgust, already. According to him, anything to the right of him is an American. God, I've had enough of that **** and I really wonder if the people of Central Canada will be stupid enough to fall for it a 4th time.

The only blessing I see so far is that Anne McLellan has fled to Edm Centre, so I wouldn't have to puke while voting to keep a voice for Alberta in the Federal cabinet. It's on someone else this time.

	25-05-2004 10:18									#4
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And then Martin rants about how the NDP will rack up deficits.

Does this guy have anything other than stereotypes?

	25-05-2004 10:26									#5
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Quite frankly, I'm disgusted it took someone this long to post this.

Interesting note: I was away for the weekend (I had to work Victoria Day, but that doesn't mean I can't celebrate the rest of the weekend stereotypically: drunk at a cabin by a sub-par Albertan lake! BOOYEAH!), cut off from society. I come into work today and see the newspaper stacks: Election on June 28 (The Journal, paraphrased) and IT'S ON, MOFO (The Sun, paraphrased). I feel so dirty going a whole 24 hours without knowing it was declared.

quote: Originally posted by notyoueither The only blessing I see so far is that Anne McLellan has fled to Edm Centre, so I wouldn't have to puke while voting to keep a voice for Alberta in the Federal cabinet. It's on someone else this time.

She's switching ridings? Who's Edmonton West's liberal candidate now? Damn, that might shoot a bunch of holes in my 'Strategic Vote' theory, as well... Laurie What's-his-name must be dancing up and down 124th street.

	25-05-2004 10:29									#6
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Duff Stewart: Liberal Candidate for Vegreville-Wainwright.

Also known as Assured Failure.

	25-05-2004 10:31									#7
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quote: Originally posted by cinch She's switching ridings? Who's Edmonton West's liberal candidate now? Damn, that might shoot a bunch of holes in my 'Strategic Vote' theory, as well... Laurie What's-his-name must be dancing up and down 124th street.

Wait... I just checked Elections Canada... there is no Edmonton West anymore. I'm now Edmonton Centre. Now I am disgusted by myself for not realising this sooner.

Where does Edmonton Centre begin and end? Wha-zuh? Huzoo?

	25-05-2004 10:33									#8
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Well, I'll be back in Vancouver in time to vote for Libby Davies (I think... they went and split her riding in half as part of the redistricting). I like an election where I don't have to run home and take a shower after voting.

	25-05-2004 10:39									#9
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Alright, I just found the map. Man, I'm rambling. So the expanded Edmonton Centre pretty far to the West. I can dig it. Annie Mac is still my mop. Laurie Hawn is the main contendah. David Parker is the Green candidate. I can't find the NDP one on their website (it's mostly just a Jack Layton personality cult anyway).

Screw B.C., Parker's actually sounding pretty good right now...

	25-05-2004 10:39									#10
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quote: Originally posted by cinch Wait... I just checked Elections Canada... there is no Edmonton West anymore. I'm now Edmonton Centre. Now I am disgusted by myself for not realising this sooner. Where does Edmonton Centre begin and end? Wha-zuh? Huzoo?

The map I looked at showed Edm Centre and Edm West, but the Liberal site showed no Edm West candidate. Ohh ohh.

	25-05-2004 10:45									#11
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither The map I looked at showed Edm Centre and Edm West, but the Liberal site showed no Edm West candidate. Ohh ohh.

Map Link to Elections Canada

Looks to me like they split Edmonton West up and bits of it were absorbed into Edmonton Centre, Edmonton-Spruce Grove, and Edmonton-St. Albert.

Hm.

	25-05-2004 10:46									#12
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Oh lovely! According to Elections Canada, a large chunck of Edmonton has fled to Spruce Grove! Anything other than a Conservative is as likely in this riding as a Bolivian Stanley Cup Champion!

Baaaa, which hay stack is the Conservative?

	25-05-2004 10:48									#13
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I get a little red x when I try to call up the vancouver map.

http://www.elections.ca/scripts/Pss...x?L=e&map=59907

	25-05-2004 10:49									#14
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Oh lovely! According to Elections Canada, a large chunck of Edmonton has fled to Spruce Grove! Anything other than a Conservative is as likely in this riding as a Bolivian Stanley Cup Champion! Baaaa, which hay stack is the Conservative?

Does seem strange that EC has decided to lump so much urban land in with the 'burbs like that... It's almost like...

A CONSERVATIVE CONSPIRACY!

That wasn't part of our deal, Manning! That wasn't paaaaaart!!!

	25-05-2004 10:49									#15
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If that map were brought in under Tories, there would be cries of gerrymandering from one end of Red through the Greens and all the way to the door-step of blue.

Huge chunks of Edmonton have just become 'rural'.

	25-05-2004 10:54									#16
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Or maybe it is reverse infection. Redmonton is now expected to spread the germ of socialism out towards the burbs.

	25-05-2004 11:14									#17
	Full PM-box? Change here!

Olivia Chow is easy on the eyes.

Acquisition of the Summer: Eskies sign Daryl Mitchell. It's a risk, but there's very little downside. Booyeah.

	25-05-2004 11:55									#18
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quote: According to him, anything to the right of him is an American.

This is seen as a bad thing? Christ, when will you Canucks wake up and realize you're Americans in everything but name? You're northern Minnesota...

	25-05-2004 11:58									#19
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Does Minnesota hate the Democrats as right wing reactionaries?

	25-05-2004 11:59									#20
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You obviously haven't been reading Odin's posts if you had to ask that question. You would also do well to remember what state Paul Wellstone was from...

	25-05-2004 12:04									#21
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I couldn't remember what I posted two hours ago, let alone keep track of what some other blurb posted.

Suffice to say that the boogey-man of being Americans has been trotted out for a few elections now. The bets are for how much longer people in Ontario will be stupid enough to base their voting on it.

	25-05-2004 12:07									#22
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[troll]For as long as Albertans keep acting like Americans[/troll]

	25-05-2004 12:10									#23
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quote: Suffice to say that the boogey-man of being Americans has been trotted out for a few elections now. The bets are for how much longer people in Ontario will be stupid enough to base their voting on it.

All joking aside, this is really an interesting piece of information. I knew Canadians had a chip on their shoulder about their big brother to the south, but I never knew it was big enough to be used as an election tactic. Does this happen anywhere else? Do candidates in New Zealand get accused of being too "Australian"?

	25-05-2004 12:19									#24
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I don't know about NZ, but I doubt it.

It comes from small minds that feel threatened by disruptions to the status quo being either American (from the right) or Communist (from the left).

The Liberals have been surfing that wave to power for a hundred years.

	25-05-2004 12:37									#25
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quote: Originally posted by joncha [troll]For as long as Albertans keep acting like Americans[/troll]

I'll deal with you later, young man!

	25-05-2004 18:41									#26
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I'd love to actually see Harper's plan to achieve his goal of lower taxes than the US, but without any cuts to core social spending and increased spending on the military, all the while not running a deficit.

	25-05-2004 18:52									#27
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is this about dancing

jM

	25-05-2004 18:53									#28
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Question: I'm a registered voter, but I did so when I lived in Calgary.

What do I have to do to vote here in Ontario?

	25-05-2004 18:58									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Asher Question: I'm a registered voter, but I did so when I lived in Calgary. What do I have to do to vote here in Ontario?

www.elections.ca

	25-05-2004 18:59									#30
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Too much work!

I don't know if I'm going to vote anyway. I hate the Liberals, but I like Martin over Harper...

They're all worthless parties.