07-06-2004 05:26									#1
	Canadian Election Tread (part deux) Inflate your Upload Space

Continued from here.

	07-06-2004 05:29									#2
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

Not too shabby.

I wonder how many of these we will fill before the election finishes.

	07-06-2004 05:34									#3
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

The hot topic at the moment seems to be seat counts in Ontario and Quebec.

I admit I have not bothered to look in detail at ridings and historical votes, but I think things in Ontario and Quebec are more volatile and less likely to be accurately predicted than many might believe.

	07-06-2004 05:35									#4
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

When is the election?

	07-06-2004 05:35									#5
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi The conservatives win in that situation, since they might stand at 15% or so. Oddly, the Conservatives stand higher in some of the Bloq seats than the ones controlled by the Liberals.

Are you looking at premerger vote total for the PCs?

	07-06-2004 05:36									#6
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: Originally posted by Kucinich When is the election?

June 28.

	07-06-2004 05:36									#7
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

This is a table...

Top 11 NDP seats last election.

Conservatives and Alliance voters cluster together to show the new status.

LIB / BQ / NDP / OTHER / CON

1. Outremont [QC] 47.7% 28.3% 5.6% 7.1% 11.3%
2. Westmount - Ville-Marie [QC] 60.3% 10.7% 5.2% 7.5% 16.4%
3. Laurier - Sainte-Marie [QC] 25.7% 52.8% 4.8% 10.4% 6.4%
4. Notre-Dame-de-Grace - Lachine [QC] 60.6% 18.1% 4.7% 4.9% 11.7%
5. Papineau - Saint-Denis [QC] 53.5% 27.1% 4.5% 7.3% 7.5%
6. Jonquiere [QC] 35.8% 50.1% 3.5% 10.6%
7. Hull - Aylmer [QC] 51.3% 23.1% 3.5% 4.1% 18.0%
8. Gatineau [QC] 51.2% 25.6% 3.5% 2.5% 17.2%
9. Quebec [QC] 35.1% 43.7% 3.3% 4.2% 13.7%
10. Rosemont - Petite-Patrie [QC] 33.4% 49.1% 3.0% 7.0% 7.5%
11. Matapedia - Matane [QC] 45.8% 46.6% 3.0% 4.6%

	07-06-2004 05:38									#8
	Inflate your Upload Space

Did the NDP outpoll the CA in all those ridings last time?

	07-06-2004 05:40									#9
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

Now, splitting the Liberal vote 60-40 between the Liberals (60) and the NDP (40)

This is the picture for the top ten seats. Outrement is #11.

1. Mount Royal [QC] 48.7% 4.3% 35.0% 2.3% 9.7%
2. Lac-Saint-Louis [QC] 44.5% 6.6% 32.2% 2.0% 14.7%
3. Saint-Laurent - Cartierville [QC] 44.2% 13.0% 31.8% 1.5% 9.5%
4. Saint-Leonard - Saint-Michel [QC] 46.0% 14.4% 31.8% 1.7% 6.1%
5. Pierrefonds - Dollard [QC] 43.5% 10.9% 31.0% 2.1% 12.4%
6. Westmount - Ville-Marie [QC] 36.2% 10.7% 29.3% 7.5% 16.4%
7. Notre-Dame-de-Grace - Lachine [QC] 36.3% 18.1% 29.0% 4.9% 11.7%
8. LaSalle - Emard [QC] 39.5% 24.2% 28.0% 2.3% 6.0%
9. Bourassa [QC] 37.2% 28.2% 26.6% 1.1% 6.7%
10. Papineau - Saint-Denis [QC] 32.1% 27.1% 26.0% 7.3% 7.5%


Even with a 40% shift in Liberal voters to the NDP, the NDP do not win a single seat in Quebec.

	07-06-2004 05:43									#10
	Increase the size of your Attachments

NYE:

No.

NDP / CA

1. Outremont [QC] 5.6% 3.2%
2. Westmount - Ville-Marie [QC] 5.2% 4.4%
3. Laurier - Sainte-Marie [QC] 4.8% 2.2%
4. Notre-Dame-de-Grace - Lachine [QC] 4.7% 4.3%
5. Papineau - Saint-Denis [QC] 4.5% 4.7%
6. Jonquiere [QC] 3.5% 10.6%
7. Hull - Aylmer [QC] 3.5% 8.4%
8. Gatineau [QC] 3.5% 10.1%
9. Quebec [QC] 3.3% 7.6%
10. Rosemont - Petite-Patrie [QC] 3.0% 2.9%

	07-06-2004 05:46									#11
	Full PM-box? Change here!

quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi Now, splitting the Liberal vote 60-40 between the Liberals (60) and the NDP (40)

That's not going to happen. Just telling you.

Especially not in Westmount and Outremont, the two richest ridings in all of Quebec. The NDP vote there is rich, educated kids voting against their parents.

	07-06-2004 05:49									#12
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: 4. Notre-Dame-de-Grace - Lachine [QC] 4.7% 4.3%

This is probably the only one which would ever have a shot of going to the good guys.

	07-06-2004 05:50									#13
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

NDG and Lachine are working-class anglo (with a significant French minority) boroughs. They'll probably stick Liberal this time though.

	07-06-2004 05:50									#14
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse About 10 seats which are majority federalist might be affected. It happened in 1993. 20 seats or so have so little Bloc support that to ask for them to go BQ is silly. The problem with this scenario is that the new Conservatives have really not done anything to endear themselves to French Canadians. This is the demographic that's important in aforementioned weakly federalist ridings.

For Ben also.

Well, I think that a couple of things might be important. One, the level of the PO factor. How many life long Liberals simply stay home.

Also, where do the former Tories park themselves? To me it seems the Liberals would have had a good chance at them, but the NDP have as much chance at them as the NCons now. We are talking about people trying to send a message.

What remains to be seen is how does Harper do there and do any of the Old guard of the Tories back him up.

My thinking goes that if Harper can beat the Reform/CA rap, and if he can do well in the French language debate, and a few other things break for him, then the Tories could do well.

Failing the resurgence of the Tories at this time (which I can't think as likely without a lot of good breaks) then what do the disaffected PC and po'd middle road and Liberals do? As Krazy says, they shouldn't go Bloc, so the only voting option left is NDP and Green. Voting Green isn't likely to send many messages. NDP might.

To give perspective. I am perceiving more volatility than in Campbell's crash. Not necessarily so many Liberals gone, but certainly a wider swing in some places than is being predicted by many.

	07-06-2004 05:50									#15
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

quote: That's not going to happen. Just telling you.

Oh, I believe you.

I just think it's much more reasonable to have the separatists win 65 seats in Quebec.

	07-06-2004 05:53									#16
	Support Apolyton

NYE:

My figures are based on giving the Conservatives about 80% of the PC vote in addition to the base for the Alliance.

The only really tough part of my numbers is figuring out where Liberal support splits.

In order to raise the Bloc numbers, I need to bounce about 5% of the Liberal supporters to the Bloc, and another 10% to the NDP, and then a few percent to the Greens.

To get about 28% support for the Liberals, I still have to suppress turnout a little.

	07-06-2004 05:55									#17
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi NYE: No.

I don;t think it's reasonable to assume that the old Tory vote will transfer directly to the NCons everywhere, but especially in Quebec.

	07-06-2004 05:59									#18
	Tired of ads?

That's what I've been saying.

My prediction remains what it always has: 45 Bloc, 30 Libs

i.e. Bloc landslide

Overall, I think we'll see 140-145 Libs (I've pretty much decided that they're not making majority this time) in a minority with 20-25 NDPers.

I don't think the Conservatives will do much better than 100 seats, with the Bloc pulling in 45

	07-06-2004 06:03									#19
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

I think we may be shocked come election night.

I know what I'm doing after work on the 28th.

	07-06-2004 06:05									#20
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

I'll agree that this is probably the hardest election to call in a long while. I know I'll be glued to whatever means of communication gets me the quickest riding-by-riding updates.

I've got my ballot and will mail it in on June 9th (the day the list of candidates is finalised).

	07-06-2004 06:06									#21
	Tired of ads?

quote: Overall, I think we'll see 140-145 Libs (I've pretty much decided that they're not making majority this time) in a minority with 20-25 NDPers. I don't think the Conservatives will do much better than 100 seats, with the Bloc pulling in 45

45 + 25 + 100 + 145 =

70 + 245 = 315.

Yeah, that works. You could even drop the Conservatives down to 90, and still have all your numbers work.

Trouble is, the support for the Conservatives would have to drop and the Liberals would have to rise.

I don't see the Liberals forming a government, majority or minority just with the current trends, let alone what may happen over the next few weeks.

	07-06-2004 06:08									#22
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi 45 + 25 + 100 + 145 = 70 + 245 = 315.

Uhh...if you've got two numbers with a swing of 5 each you should probably take the middle of the range.

In other words the combined Lib-NDP seats will be ~165

By the way, why did Harper beg off the town hall meeting where the candidates were quizzed by uni students?

	07-06-2004 06:10									#23
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Don't know, but he has been very set on keeping his own schedule, and not buckling under to pressure exerted by others to do it their way.

	07-06-2004 06:11									#24
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

News to me.

I was just doing a quick calculation to make sure that given the high range, you would still have enough seats to cover the totals.

Another problem for me is that I can't predict new ridings.

	07-06-2004 06:14									#25
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

I think support for the Liberals has pretty much found its bottom, and support for the Conservatives has plateaued. With a good bounce in the next couple weeks, the Liberals could get close to majority territory again.

	07-06-2004 06:16									#26
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

That's not what opinion trackers are saying, Jon. They say the Liberals may be nowhere near bottom.

	07-06-2004 06:17									#27
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

I'd be shocked if 32% of Canadians are life-time, never waver, Liberals.

	07-06-2004 06:18									#28
	Full PM-box? Change here!

quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse By the way, why did Harper beg off the town hall meeting where the candidates were quizzed by uni students?

His strategy is to act like the front runner, a la Schwartzenegger, and not get into any situation where he has to face potential voters unless he has to. So far it seems to be working for him.

	07-06-2004 06:23									#29
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by notyoueither That's not what opinion trackers are saying, Jon. They say the Liberals may be nowhere near bottom.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens, then. I think we'll see more voters take a critical look at Harper now that he's looking more and more like the front-runner.

All he needs is for another of his candidates to say something dumb, and his numbers might start slipping.

	07-06-2004 06:25									#30
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

quote: All he needs is for another of his candidates to say something dumb, and his numbers might start slipping.

Gee, I'll remember to use that same standard for Layton. Judge the leader by his candidates.