25-05-2004 21:39									#1
	Turn 209: 940 AD Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

Can someone forward the save to steven.bex@esat.kuleuven.ac.be please? If I got it, I can start on it in something like an hour from now.

Cheers,
DeepO

	25-05-2004 22:07									#2
	Inflate your Upload Space

Thanks!

(don't know who to thank, though, didn't recognise the addy )

DeepO

	25-05-2004 22:34									#3
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It was me, who, out of an act of kindness, yadda yadda.

	26-05-2004 01:10									#4
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Damn. Crashed. And of course before I saved the log

I'll redo the turn (was nearly finished), but first of all something to eat. It's after 10 pm already

DeepO

	26-05-2004 01:56									#5
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Doh!

Sorry to hear that. I hate it when that happens.

-Arrian

	26-05-2004 04:08									#6
	Got spare money?

okay, again. (not that bad, actually, needed to replay anyway as I made a mistake when chopping, I hadn't set a city to a wonder. It's more the log I dread.)

Start
- GoW accepted our previous deal of incense Deleted incense, added it again, and sent it unaccepted. Next turn, we should get a incense-gems trade set up.

- RP sends 200 gold + WM. accepted. Send our own WM in return. Can't send horses.

- Hurricane builds Galleon, starts galleon.

- Cyclone builds worker, starts worker.

- Bolderberg builds hospital. Starts galleon (could also use uni, as it will grow to a nice commerce city. Decide this turn if you think we should do it!)

- Tempest builds rifle. starts rifle.

- Tornado builds galleon, starts galloen

- Arashi builds worker. Starts worker. Can have 40 spt with pop size -1. Plus, can keep a scientist this turn too.

- WW builds factory. Starts aqua.

- SA builds factory. Starts market

- 2670 gold, 0%, 0 bpt, 427 gpt.

forces
(- 8 spear, 27 pikes, 22 knights, 8 cat, 12 MI, 2 galley)
- 44 workers
- 4 rifle
- 7 galleon

Moves
In general, the specific worker moves are not covered anymore, it gets too tedious. Only important stuff is mentioned.

- foresting on EotS 21(irr), 23, 41 (irr), 47, 69 (eta factory -2)

- irr on WW2

- starting forest on OG 36, Sufa 4

- 5 workers added to Bolderberg

- new rifle goes to Eli and fort.

- Galley2 (renamed galleon. Shouldn't fool anyone, is the only regular in our force) moves 1111.
- our Southern most galley moves 266, for the last of the fog. Circles around ND frigate! Who builds a frigate in a game like this?
- our Northern most galleon moves 2222. destination: Eli or lower.
- Northern most galley moves 222. Destination: Elipolis
- Newly built galleon goes towards Pica 222 (off the coast of ND)
- even newer galleon moves 4444. Destination: one of the scout points near ND.
- new galleon from Hurricane moves 6666
- Galleon from Tornado forts. We need some place to amass our galleons unspotted. Any ideas?

workforce shuffles
- Cyclone set back to ideal pattern (needs this every turn).

- Arashi set to 2 scientists, instead of taxmen. testing 3.5 turn tech pace.

- WW takes one of OG's deserts, gives hill instead.
- OG further moves off a coast onto sea, gives coast to Bolderberg.

- Blizzard moves off one of the irr grass, moves off desert. Takes 2 coast, and mined bonus rass (from SA). no effect eta cath. more gpt. Don't have chops or 50-shield build to (short)rush cathedral.

- SA takes 2x irr grass. moves of mountain and mined grass. 40 spt. shortrush to granary next turn will shave 1 turn off market. Otherwise 2x chop.

Current Builds
long term plans for our cities

Eli : factory in 22
Inchon : aqua in 15
WoC : factory in 4 (surplus of 8 shields, which should go to Inchon or Inchoff), then market in 1 (with 3 forests), cathedral in 1 (with 1 forest)
Inchoff : factory in 19
Diss : galleon in 1
Santa Ana : market in 3 (either short rush next turn, or 2x chop for eta-1)
Blizzard : cathedral in 2
Monsoon : factory in 2
Arashi : woker in 1 (last one, before going to 2-turn rifles)
WW : aqua in 5
Tempest : rifle in 1
SS: worker in 2
Hurricane : rifle in 2 (change of plan: with shipchaining allowed, we'll need less galleons. Hurricane was wasting 10 spt... perfect for rifle builds.)
OG : factory in 6
EotS : factory in 1 (needs knights next turn for hospital eta -1)
Bolderberg : galleon in 2
Cyclone: worker in 1
Tornado : galleon in 2
Typhoon :harbor in 3
Sufa : factory in 13

Other

- Lego completed Sistine last turn!

- Lego doesn't have Sanitation yet. Vox neither.

- in F11, we're #2 in production at 499 Megatons. (last turn 476).

- spent 5 workers, but our current gpt increased to 454gpt (427 start of turn)

important question
We're building up forces again. We know some of our forces are from now on totally obsolete: our knights. We need defenders as well... while I don't want to totally disband our obsolete forces (they could make it a difficult to land forces on lightly coast), I could use those shields invested in the knights for rushing: sometimes, I can short rush. Can I do this?

In 2 turns, I could for instance use a couple of knights in EotS, so that we get 1 turn less on the hospital. That means one more rifle, at the expense of 2 knights (if I counted right).

Next Turn
- Arashi mountain RRed, so that it can get to 40 spt. if at all possible, so that it doesn't hamper the eta of Monsoon's factory
- shortrush or chopping near SA (20 shields needed)
- finish chop near OG, Sufa
- if team allows, knight disbanding in EotS.

- SS can go to 2-turn worker pump without needing the fp, if desert is RRed. might not need this until after hospital of EotS

DeepO

	26-05-2004 04:41									#7
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by DeepO - Bolderberg builds hospital. Starts galleon (could also use uni, as it will grow to a nice commerce city. Decide this turn if you think we should do it!)

Units are my vote. Our tech rate is already tremendous, and thats what, 2 1/2 extra units or so?

quote: - Lego completed Sistine last turn!

Well, they're going to need it. Personally I'm glad they can't use it as a prebuild. Was it a prebuild for Hoover? Probably

quote: important question We're building up forces again. We know some of our forces are from now on totally obsolete: our knights. We need defenders as well... while I don't want to totally disband our obsolete forces (they could make it a difficult to land forces on lightly coast), I could use those shields invested in the knights for rushing: sometimes, I can short rush. Can I do this?

Question. What happens when marines amphibiously attack workers?

I think using obsolete units to increase our efficiency is wise. Knights aren't going to help a bit in the long run, but each might shave a turn off a build somewhere.


Great work again

	26-05-2004 04:54									#8
	Increase the size of your Attachments

Bolderberg can either build 2 galleons, or one uni. It still has room for chopping, which can make up the difference. it would make an extra ~30 bpt, which still is a lot for us

Sistine was a prebuild for Hoover, but not so that it depended on the availability of Sistine to get Hoover. It shaved off 2 turns by using that instead of GLib (which is now the largest prebuild, after the palace)

When marines attack workers, the workers are captured. Any other unit can't attack workers on the coast. The workers we keep for pollution duty and tweaking could be used as a sea wall in times of need. They wouldn't be extremely effective, though

DeepO

	26-05-2004 05:03									#9
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quote: Originally posted by DeepO Bolderberg can either build 2 galleons, or one uni. It still has room for chopping, which can make up the difference. it would make an extra ~30 bpt, which still is a lot for us

hmm. two galleons isn't all that great, but we don't have much else useful to build yet. Ok, I guess a uni will be better, esp if we are running mostly tax in a few turns during the war. Need to keep some research going, + culture I spose.

quote: Originally posted by DeepO Sistine was a prebuild for Hoover, but not so that it depended on the availability of Sistine to get Hoover. It shaved off 2 turns by using that instead of GLib (which is now the largest prebuild, after the palace)

ah. Anyway, I'd rather have hoover. Though I would have liked to see the public forum...

quote: Originally posted by DeepO When marines attack workers, the workers are captured. Any other unit can't attack workers on the coast. The workers we keep for pollution duty and tweaking could be used as a sea wall in times of need. They wouldn't be extremely effective, though

I had no idea, I don't use marines that often. Glad to know firaxis didn't allow that loophole

	26-05-2004 05:15									#10
	Increase the size of your Attachments

Hoover is definately better. If we wanted Sistine, we should have started a prebuild earlier, instead of a prebuild for a factory. We could have easily beaten Lego.

But the public forum would be a place where I didn't make any comment in a couple of months, I think

DeepO

	26-05-2004 05:25									#11
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

How do you feel about a ruse, deep0, involving at least Gow?

Playing with fire? better to hit them out of the blue? any tricks now might lead to an even greater lego military build up (if that's possible) Plus ND is quite untrustworthy.

	26-05-2004 05:44									#12
	Put an end to popups!

I don't think ND is untrustwothy, I'm worried more about GoW.

but what ruse? For the moment, I would keep quiet, however it won't matter much. Lego will build up. The reason why I'm tracking sanitation so closely is that if they go for large cities instead of adequate protection, they might build up their forces too late. And that's about the only thing we can hope for to take them out completely in a couple of turns.

DeepO

	26-05-2004 06:21									#13
	Inflate your Upload Space

what if we (or whomever can, I forget) sold them sanitation, say 3 turns before its go time? might force them to either eat extra shields as well as sucking up some extra lego cash...

	26-05-2004 13:58									#14
	Inflate your Upload Space

If BB is going Metro, I favour a Uni.

I expect GoW are as worried about a hypothetical attack by us as we are from them. My thoughts are that MZ is unlikely to hand the game to Lego by attacking GS, its best hope of defeating Lego and keeping GoW in the game.

Q: When will we want rubber, from whom, and for how much? We could either see if GoW want to be generous as our ally, or we could trade part-for-tech to ND and get an indepedent source of rubber from GoW, offering some security.

	26-05-2004 14:00									#15
	Remove this text

Sanitation means extra defence - less defensive units but each stronger (unless we can bombard pop bewlow 12).

	26-05-2004 14:45									#16
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BB is size 17 right now. Our biggest city.

sleepy: interesting idea, but indeed, there is the defense bonus for metros that's not so nice. And, hospitals make excellent placeholders for units, once they got attacked, they're likely to switch all their builds to defenders.

rubber: don't know exactly. once we get in mob, we can just as easily build infs then rifles. OTOH, the only reason to go in mob is to have the power to build infs (before marines and tanks, of course). asking ND sounds a good idea, if GoW agrees.

DeepO

	26-05-2004 14:57									#17
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I suspect sleepy is suggesting it for three turns before we go because Lego won't have time to build any hospitals in coastal cities (usually lower production) in the time available, but will have sunk enough shields into them that switching to infantry once they see the attack coming will only net them one infantry, when they could have got two in the same time.

Doing some simulations of marines vs cities and metros to see what the difference is...

	26-05-2004 15:41									#18
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Dealing with marines attacking infantry fortified in cities or metros on plains. As you might imagine, in cases where one side has a massive advantage, hospitals make little difference to the odds of a city falling (although it does altyer the number of defenders and attackers killed - but that's of little consequence if the only aim is to take the town with marines, regardless of the cost). In cases where the combat is reasonably balanced (chance of victory between 10 and 90%), hospitals count roughly as an extra 1/4 extrainfantry defender for every defender beyond 2, as long as the sides are reasonably balanced.

So for cities with less than 8 defenders, a hospital counts as roughly 1 infantry. If a hospital is completed and the city grows, we effectively face one more infantry. If it isn't, the build is switched to an infantry, and we face one more infantry. The result is the same either way.

If they have 8 or more infantry in the city, we're buggered anyway. We need 26 or more marines to have even a 50% chance of taking a city, and 50% isn't good enough when the game for us hinges on the success of the attack.

If our main coastal target is a city that isn't close to size 12 yet anyway, then sanitation makes very little difference to the success of our landing.

If we can get a good price for sanitation, I think there is a fair chance it will slightly reduce Lego's defence ability IF they build hospitals in place of units. The down side is if the attack stalls and we have to face a metro with a significant number of defenders, in which case we've shot ourselves in the foot.

	26-05-2004 16:03									#19
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vulture, care to see how many infs they can have in a non-metro city to have a 90% chance of taking it with 32 marines? How much marines do we need to beat down 10 infs with 90% chance of success?

Metro shouldn't be that much of a problem in our first attack: the destroyers we need for protection should be able to get the pop down to 12 or lower.

DeepO

	26-05-2004 17:56									#20
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All units veteran, no civs militaristic, effective infantry defense is 18.5 (+50% city defense, +25% fortified, +10% terrain, no amphib bonus - is the city bonus correct, since I can't check it at the moment, due to lack of computer at home).

32 marines can take out 8 infantry with 89% chance, ignoring offensive and defensive bombardment (97% against 7 infantry)

40 marines have a 91% chance of taking out 10 infantry (88% for 39 marines).

	26-05-2004 17:58									#21
	Increase the size of your Attachments

...and that should be 'How many marines...', not 'How much marines...' - naught DeepO.

I'd never bother correcting such a trivial point of grammar normally, but this is now my 1,000th post

	26-05-2004 19:16									#22
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I discovered a minor bug in the stacked combat calculator - units could get promoted beyond elite*, getting unknown boosts to hp. This has the effect of increasing the defenders odds by a few percent if promotion to elite is likely.

Corrected values:

32 marines now take out 8 infantry with 90% chance (98% against 7 infantry).

40 marines have a 92% chance vs 10 infantry (89% for 39 marines).

	26-05-2004 19:21									#23
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Thanks vulture!

Oh, and as to grammar: you all know I'm sloppy in this, I just type what I think, and most of the times incorrectly too. I did use "how many infs", so it would be silly to use "how much marines"

40 marines... that's quite a bunch... I think we should take that number into account, though. We need 90% chance of success, and if Lego spots where we can land, we can expect 10 infs. Luckily we've got RP to investigate cities for us

PS: Congrats on your 1000 post! I recently posted my 5000 post... over 4300 where in this forum. Not bad either

DeepO

	26-05-2004 22:36									#24
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quote: Originally posted by vulture I suspect sleepy is suggesting it for three turns before we go because Lego won't have time to build any hospitals in coastal cities (usually lower production) in the time available, but will have sunk enough shields into them that switching to infantry once they see the attack coming will only net them one infantry, when they could have got two in the same time. Doing some simulations of marines vs cities and metros to see what the difference is...

yup, that is what I was trying to say plus they will lose at least a couple hundred gold, which would also be put towards upgrading/rushing units.

	27-05-2004 00:41									#25
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The whole thing is of course that it is very likely that by that time (we're talking of somewhere between 25 and 30 turns from now), they are very likely to have researched it themselves. Which would still be the ideal situation, as then they wouldn't have researched something getting them closer to tanks

DeepO

	28-05-2004 06:07									#26
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DeepO:

If you get the chance, can you post screenshots before you send the next turn?

	28-05-2004 14:59									#27
	Got spare money?

I'll do my best. It won't be today, though, too busy (but as there won't be any turn arriving, that's okay )

I was thinking on updating the economical plans, and the time line, to see what's possible. At that time, screenies are easy to make.

DeepO

	28-05-2004 17:52									#28
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sigh... never say something you might regret later... turn has arrived

No problem, if I can keep it relatively sober tonight, I can do it tomorrow morning. Sleepy, I hope I can post some screenshots before noon tomorrow, but it won't be tonight: I don't plan on going home after work. At least before I drowned the previous work week.

BTW, my home e-mail account has been fixed. At last.

DeepO

	28-05-2004 22:20									#29
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hey deepo, its not a big deal, really. I was just wanting to see the placement of everything after you moved (which I can see upon the next saves arrival anyway)

Enjoy your evening