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JohnT
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Capitalist
Mar 1999
time: 00:36
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap
Any of you gents care to challenge the fact that payrolls are lowet today than at the end of 2000? |
I'm trying to find overall payroll figures (I'm assuming you mean the aggregate paid out in salary and/or benefits by all US businesses and governments, correct?)and I can't. However, it can be extrapolated somewhat, but I'd be more confident with a cite...
Employment today is 131,224,000. The average hourly compensation for all US employees in 2002 is $17.18 (warning: URL might not work due to it being an applet and my losing the original page from the bls.gov site. Sorry.  ) and with the ECI increasing since then, average wages have not decreased since then. Regardless, assuming wages have been unchanged since 2002, this gives us an aggregate payroll cost of $2.25 billion per hour, or $4.51 trillion a year.
In March 2000, we had 1.275 million more people employed for a total employment of 132,507,000 with an average wage of $15.80. This comes out to an hourly payroll of $2.095 billion and a yearly payroll of $4.187 trillion.
Therefore, despite his assertion, payrolls have gone up in the Bush years, both in terms of cost per worker (including wages) and aggregate. However, I would prefer an official cite (not one from Faux News or the Internationale Workers Press or something) to my reasoning. Since GePap made the declaration, I'm sure you would be delighted to provide us with a link to the original source of payroll data. Thanks, man. 
Last edited by JohnT on 05-06-2004 at 01:16
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Ramo
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Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:36
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quote:
Employment today is 131,224,000. The average hourly compensation for all US employees in 2002 is $17.18 (warning: URL might not work due to it being an applet and my losing the original page from the bls.gov site. Sorry. ) and with the ECI increasing since then, average wages have not decreased since then. Regardless, assuming wages have been unchanged since 2002, this gives us an aggregate payroll cost of $2.25 billion per hour, or $4.51 trillion a year.
In March 2000, we had 1.275 million more people employed for a total employment of 132,507,000 with an average wage of $15.80. This comes out to an hourly payroll of $2.095 billion and a yearly payroll of $4.187 trillion. |
Are those wages real?
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GePap
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of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:36
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
All Bush has to say is "We were hit hard over the last couple of years, but now, because of my policies, we're back, baby!" |
Bush spin: "we are BACK!"
Dem spin "We have stagnated for 4 years".
You keep ignoring reality DanS. News are about things that change daily, exciting, so forth. Why when you hear about a muder on TV, the newscaster ususally fails to add: "But, of course, the current muder rate is half of what it was 5 years ago".
This summer tow things will dominate-certainly Iraq. War trumps peace, death trumps jobs.
High costs of living,specially oil. The cost of oil is something people see daily. It eats away at them. The price of everything goes up.
Those two stories will eat up the summer, just as the war ate up the spring (and proved your previous predictions wrong). This means Bush will, if lucky, get a very short time frame in which to bask in the job numbers-by the the race will be defined. There are always surprises, but Bush should pray harder for Osama to be caught than for these job numbers to continue.
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GePap
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of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:36
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
Yes, that dour picture will be what Kerry will try to paint over the summer. He's got to do it (what else would he do?), but it's not a winner. |
What "dour" picture?
It's called spin. You are doing it right now, by always claiming the picture is rosy. Compared to 2002, yes, to 2000? NO. And you see, the question is, which point of reference will win-2000, or 2002.
And as for Clinton's "its the economy stupid", well, that was a great quote in 1992-but it failed to be true in 2000, and given that 140,000 American are in a warzone, it will hardly be true come November. How Iraq goes will be much more important for Bush's future-note that as support of the war goes down, so does his, even if jobs increase.
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JohnT
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Capitalist
Mar 1999
time: 00:36
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quote:
Bush spin: "we are BACK!"
Dem spin "We have stagnated for 4 years". |
GePap, that only works if people blamed Bush for the economy. They don't: they blame the double-whammy of 9-11 and the laxness of oversight caused by the irrational exuberance of the 1997-2000 bubble. And, despite your assertions, the average American voter is just as likely to remember previous recessions and gas spikes as I am and a number of them will come to the conclusion that they weren't as bad as could be. After all, the highest unemployment rate for this recession was 6.3, the lowest "peak" for a recession since 1969.
Oil is comparably expensive, yes, but if anecdotal evidence is allowed we haven't seen a demand for higher payments from our regular contractors because of the oil thing. Now I expect to do so if it increases to $2.25, $2.50 at the latest, but for right now the price of gas isn't affecting our cost structure even though it is the number one expense of our contractors.
And with Iraq, who knows? Many forget that a lot of what happens in Iraq is dependent upon the Iraqis: we're seeing signs of the provisional government wanting to take things in their own hands.
It's not impossible to rebuild an occupied nation (WW2 has shown us that), but to rebuild and redirect... that's a tall order. For all we know Bush might actually pull this one off. It's very, very unlikely, but still within the realm of possibility.
Regardless, the American people don't blame Bush for the recession and a large number of them are still waiting to declare their own verdict on Iraq. Dan is correct: Good news for the economy is good news for Bush. And the country.
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GePap
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of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:36
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
The jobs numbers are not yet reflected in his approval ratings. Over time, they will be reflected as people continue to hear about their friends getting jobs. |
Yes, lets see every day discussions:
Hey Honey, did you hear Bob got a job?
Oh, yes, that nice...30 buchks for Gas! 30! What, am I made out of money!
I know, it is ridiculous, even the milk is much more expensive. Well, good thing Bob got a job, cause otherwise, how would they make it?
quote:
How much this will help Bush is uncertain. But it will help him. As sure as the sky is blue. |
Ok, he might get .1% more votes...pie in the sky?
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05-06-2004 01:08
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