05-06-2004 02:09									#121
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The price of gas goes up and it goes down. Don't count on it being as expensive as it is today come November. Or even August.

	05-06-2004 02:13									#122
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quote: Originally posted by DanS The price of gas goes up and it goes down. Don't count on it being as expensive as it is today come November.

The question is, will it be back to a buck 50, which is normal, or to $1.80, which is stll mch higher than the average for the last few years.

Plus, again, it is a question of time-opne needs time to set the agenda, to have your spin work-the longer gas prices and Iraq eat up the news cycle, the less time Bush gets to try to get out a positive spin.

	05-06-2004 02:17									#123
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quote: What is your assertion of the average US voter based on? I am going by polls, and election results, which while not greta are better than just assertions not backed by numbers.

http://www.tipponline.com/articles/04/ibd/i051204.htm

quote: Confidence Rebounds As Data Drown Fears Of A 'Jobless Recovery' Brian Mitchell Investor's Business Daily - May 12, 2004 Americans' faith in the economy bounced back in May, after a three-month slide and a turnaround on jobs. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose 2 points, or 3.8%, to 54.8, its first move up since hitting a 22-month high of 60.6 in January. Over 50 means optimism. "Americans' economic confidence is quite strong," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner. "The improvement is nearly universal," he said. "The past few months have been positive on the job front, and this is going a long way towards bolstering the economic outlook." The index has a good track record of foreshadowing the confidence gauges put out later each month by the University of Michigan and the Conference Board. IBD/TIPP conducted the national poll of 981 adults from May 2-8. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. The Economic Optimism Index is made up of three components, two of which improved in May. The six-month outlook rose 1.9 points to 52.4, and the confidence in federal economic policies component jumped 4.5 points to 52.3. But the personal financial outlook shed 0.4 point to 59.9. Confidence in federal policies had sunk below 50 in each of the previous two months. But this month, more than one in three Americans (37%) give President Bush good grades for handling the economy, up 5 percentage points over April. More Americans also seem to think Bush's tax cuts are helping, now that solid hiring has resumed. The country has added 867,000 nonfarm payroll jobs so far this year, including 288,000 last month. April's employment report was released May 7, after most of the IBD/TIPP polling. Unemployment edged down to 5.6%, matching the lowest level since late 2001. New filings for jobless benefits fell in April to the lowest level since October 2000. Fear of a jobless recovery had taken its toll on consumer confidence, despite a big boost after the capture of Saddam Hussein in December. But the fear seems to be easing as the labor market improves. "The number of respondents who fear that they or someone in their household will lose a job in the next year dropped from 23% in September 2003 to 19% this month," Mayur noted. "But we are not totally out of the woods," he added. "The share of households classified as 'job sensitive' is 32%. These households tend to be pessimistic about the economy." The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index improved for nearly all demographic groups. Investors' confidence rose 2.4 points to 58.6. Non-investors saw a smaller lift of 0.8 point to 51.4. The index declined slightly in the West, in households with $30,000 to $50,000 in annual income, and for young adults and single women. While suburbanites are the most optimistic at 60.7, urbanites showed the biggest advance of 2.6 points, to 53.1. Rural households also became more optimistic, with a gain of 1.6 points to 52.9. Republicans and Democrats ticked up slightly in May. Republicans are still the most confident at 72.4, up 0.2 from April. Democrats improved a little more, gaining 0.4 point to 42.1. But the big move was among independents, rising 3.8 points to 52.1. Self-styled moderates also shifted from pessimism to optimism, adding 1.5 points to 51.3. Residents of "blue" states — Democratic strongholds — had the biggest increase in confidence, jumping 3.5 points to 53.4 in May. Battleground states gained 1.8 points. GOP strongholds rose half a point to 57.6.

	05-06-2004 02:21									#124
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Interesting-look at the personal number-flat form the month before. Add to that that that very index is down from January still, and back in january Bush did not appear at all a better pick than today.

Plus that ignores what I said-that Iraq will set overall attitudes more than the economy.

	05-06-2004 02:25									#125
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I responded to your point about Iraq in a previous post. Did you not read it?

	05-06-2004 02:30									#126
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Yes, but your answer does not match with any numbers out there.

	05-06-2004 02:34									#127
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One thing that is interesting about these employment numbers is the ratio of employment to adult population.

This has not changed at all (at 62.2%) during the last three months and is now below the level it was 10 years ago (something that hasn't happened since the 1930's).

When you add to that the fact that Labour force participation is still falling it does not look like a genuinely strong recovery in the job market yet.

	05-06-2004 02:42									#128
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hey dan, 7th time is the charm aint it.

	05-06-2004 02:45									#129
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Knowing that about a million more Americans have jobs now than they did 3 months ago is charming.

	05-06-2004 02:47									#130
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quote: Originally posted by DanS So my conclusion is that you're pulling the opinion out of your ass.

A conclusion that you probably come to a lot about several different poster at Apolyton.................

	05-06-2004 02:48									#131
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quote: Originally posted by el freako One thing that is interesting about these employment numbers is the ratio of employment to adult population. This has not changed at all (at 62.2%) during the last three months and is now below the level it was 10 years ago (something that hasn't happened since the 1930's). When you add to that the fact that Labour force participation is still falling it does not look like a genuinely strong recovery in the job market yet.

However, the "adult population" includes a vastly increased number of retirees that didn't exist in the thirties. The ratio will decrease as the baby boomers retire in increasing numbers over the years, keeping up with the trend that started a decade ago. The declining ratio of workers to retirees is also one of the reasons why the solvency of Social Security is in question.

	05-06-2004 03:34									#132
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat Now if you had wage growth in those jobs, that would be nice too. I don't find it terribly thrilling when you have large job losses, then you get job growth back to a point that's almost as many jobs as you had before. Especially when I know a lot of people who are now making < 50% to ~80% of their previous incomes.

Which is why this job growth news isn't spectacular. But wait! According to some in this thread, we're in a major economic boom! to that

	05-06-2004 03:36									#133
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quote: Originally posted by DanS It's very convenient if your aim is to make the economy look like it is doing poorly for partisan political purposes.

Compared to those trying to make it look good for partisan political purposes.

	05-06-2004 07:28									#134
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten We don't have a bubble to fuel the economy now,

Yes we do. Stocks are still priced on their seventy year earnings potential. That is outside the realm of speculation and into pure fantasy. That's a bubble. It wasn't the internet that caused the tech bubble, it was deregulation. We're still deregulated and tech ipos are already the news again. Smell that Google IPO. Good times are here again!

	05-06-2004 08:39									#135
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Stocks are only modestly overpriced. All you have to do is run a simple discounted earnings calculator to see that this is so.

	05-06-2004 08:49									#136
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quote: Originally posted by el freako (something that hasn't happened since the 1930's).

Another Great Depression prediction!!!! Run for your lives!!!

	05-06-2004 09:27									#137
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Another Great Depression prediction!!!! Run for your lives!!!

Idiot,

The 1930's were of a totally different order, all my statement means is that this is the worst employment performance in a recession since then - to equate it with the depression is nonsense.

You really should learn how to read statements properly.

quote: Originally posted by JohnT However, the "adult population" includes a vastly increased number of retirees that didn't exist in the thirties. The ratio will decrease as the baby boomers retire in increasing numbers over the years, keeping up with the trend that started a decade ago. The declining ratio of workers to retirees is also one of the reasons why the solvency of Social Security is in question.

You are clutching at straws here (I really wish people would check out the data before they make these daft assumptions).
The BLS uses the adult population as it's denominator so, as I was disputing how wonderful DanS finds this, I used that data.

However if your (unresearched) assumption is correct then you would expect to see greatly different data if you used the working age population (15-64) as this excludes retirees - however the difference between these two is negligable.

The fall in the employment/population ratio is caused by a lack of employment growth since 1990 not by increased retirement.

	05-06-2004 09:34									#138
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The way I'm reading it a recovery occurs during the period after the recession is over but before all of the loses from the recession are restored. Correct? Thus if you lose 2 million jobs in the recession but later add 1 million you'd still be in the recovery period until you gain another 1 million jobs. After you gain back all 2 million lost jobs then you could officially call it an expansion instead of a recovery.

	05-06-2004 09:40									#139
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BTW MSNBC ia reporting that if the current high rate of job creation is sustained until November then Bush will break even in terms of total number of jobs. There is still the issue that many of people are making less under Bush then under Clinton so I suspect many people will still be worse off even if the best possible economic news happens between now and election day.

	05-06-2004 09:45									#140
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quote: The BLS uses the adult population as it's denominator so, as I was disputing how wonderful DanS finds this, I used that data. However if your (unresearched) assumption is correct...

el freako, you might not have noticed that I'm the guy who brought the bls data into this discussion. My arguments might not be the most theoretically sound, but I can guarantee you that I did crunch my numbers.


The problem here is sloppy wording on your part. Here is the original quote:

quote: One thing that is interesting about these employment numbers is the ratio of employment to adult population.

I respond with the above and you come back with the above blast and a subsequent rephrasing of your position:

quote: then you would expect to see greatly different data if you used the working age population (15-64) as this excludes retirees

Pardon me for reading you straight - am I now to attempt to guess the intent of your words as well as their meaning? You didn't mention "working age" Americans, you referenced "adult" Americans. I responded about the subset of "adult" Americans assuming you knew what the hell you were talking about. My mistake.

Adult != Working Age.

	05-06-2004 09:52									#141
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JohnT,

As I stated above I used the adult population because that is what the BLS uses and it would be easy for people to go and check the data.

However your assumption that the fall in the employment ratio is caused by the rising number of retirees is what made me also bring in working population (when did I ever equate the two? - I think you are getting confused here) to show that the effect is just as pronounced when you exclude retirees.

The reason I brought up working-age population is to show that your assumption was incorrect (or at best had negligable impact).

	05-06-2004 10:01									#142
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You never equated the two and I never said you did. You used "adult" in your first post and amended that to "working age" in your second, but not without taking some time for demeaning cheapshots. I respond to what you write, not what you mean, and if you can't use the proper terms then don't jump my ass for not getting your point. Capice?

Last edited by JohnT on 05-06-2004 at 10:09

	05-06-2004 10:56									#143
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Gas prices won't go down, we are at 95% refining capacity right now, so even if they pump more, or we pump more we can't immediately use it. Also theres the issue of the fall of the dollar.

	05-06-2004 11:54									#144
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yep, weaker dollar = more expensive gas.

	05-06-2004 12:03									#145
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quote: Originally posted by JohnT You never equated the two and I never said you did. You used "adult" in your first post and amended that to "working age" in your second, but not without taking some time for demeaning cheapshots. I respond to what you write, not what you mean, and if you can't use the proper terms then don't jump my ass for not getting your point. Capice?

The reason you get 'cheap shots' is because you challenge the validity of my analysis and then, when I provide proof showing why the assumption underlying that challenge is false, you plead ignorance.

You say that I have not used the proper terms, well what terms would you like me to use? - Adult population and Working Age Population are the accepted terms worldwide, so how could you get confused about what I write as opposed to what I mean?

I suggest that the confusion arises not because I have not used the proper terms but because you do not understand what the proper terms are.

	05-06-2004 12:41									#146
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JohnT is American

You are Eurocom

Therefore JohnT has won the debate

	05-06-2004 18:18									#147
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker JohnT is American You are Eurocom Therefore JohnT has won the debate

Hey Ted, I called you an idiot before - you don't need to go out of your way to prove it!

	05-06-2004 18:21									#148
	Increase the size of your Attachments

...six hours, and that's all you could come up with?

	05-06-2004 18:23									#149
	Suffering from ads?

Some people have lives.

	05-06-2004 18:46									#150
	Increase Your PM Length

He posts here, dosen't he?