13-06-2004 05:10									#1
	Cost of housing. Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

I am once again looking to buy a house. I've talked to my dad and he has agreed to help me buy a house so things should be good right? Wrong, the cost of housing in southern California has become absolutely unreal. I make $48,000 per year which isn't a huge amount but it is higher then the national average and I dare say I make more then most other people in their mid to late 20's yet it is seriously looking like I won't be able to afford anything in the San Diego area. I know several people are going to tell me to move but I like San Diego and my family all lives here. So how much is the current going rate for a single family detached home in San Diego? $450,000 is the county wide median home price. Just 10 years ago it was like $200,000 but now you can't even buy an apartment for $200,000.

I figure, no problem, I have a VA home loan for being a vet plus I can just rent out a room but the VA office says the home loans max out at $250,000! I can't buy anything with so little an amount! Why didn't the government make the VA loans big enough so you can actually afford to buy something?

So any way I decided to look in the ghetto and see what I could see and even in the shittiest part of town the fixer uppers were going for $350,000. That's for the ghetto where I'll probably get mugged more often then Albert Spear. I looked at buying an apartment in East Village which used to be where all the homeless people lived on the streets but since the city started their urban renewal plan even a one bedroom apartment there costs $350,000. This is getting depressing.

	13-06-2004 05:14									#2
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

That's the price you pay for staying in San Diego. Laura and I bought a brand new ranch home here in Knoxville, not big at 1,500 sqft, with a 1/4 acre lot for $92,000.

	13-06-2004 05:30									#3
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

That's in the mid-west?

I think I will have to settle for an attached town home. Hopefully, I will be able to find something with a two car garage or failing that underground parking. I'm still finding reality to be depressing.

	13-06-2004 05:32									#4
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Knoxville, TN. In the Eastern part of the country.

	13-06-2004 05:37									#5
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Be glad. On Maui the average cost of housing is $625,000. Lots of "deep-pocketed" people from the mainland are gobbling up property there like it was a field day.

	13-06-2004 05:42									#6
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

Yeah, out of staters fleeing from cold winters are running up our housing prices too.

	13-06-2004 05:45									#7
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

I agree.

Priority should be given to people in-state before out-of-staters.

Oerdin=

	13-06-2004 05:47									#8
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

I don't know about priority but there should be some sort of way to subsidize housing for people who live here X number of years.

	13-06-2004 05:49									#9
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

My brother's 400 sq. foot apartment (shared kitchen) in San Jose ran him $1900 a month, back before he and my sister-in-law got a house. Meanwhile, the 1000 sq. ft. apartment that I just put down a deposit on is going to run me $600 a month. In other words, it's not just southern California -- all of California is FUBAR.

	13-06-2004 05:49									#10
	Tired of ads?

San Diego has always been pretty expensive housing-wise, hasn't it?

	13-06-2004 05:51									#11
	Suffering from ads?

I used to live in Santa Barbara. When we moved away about 9 years ago, the house was sold for a couple hundred thousand dollars. A couple years ago, it was sold for $ 1 million. One of my sis's friends parents bought their house in Santa Barbara in the 80's for a couple hundred thousand, and recently sold it for $10 million.

My sister just got a job in the bay area, and is looking for a house in Frisco. She was telling me that houses start at around $600 thousand.

There has to be a real estate bubble. How can real estate prices sustain such insane growth?

	13-06-2004 05:56									#12
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

quote: Originally posted by Oerdin I don't know about priority but there should be some sort of way to subsidize housing for people who live here X number of years.

Even better idea!

A resident within the state should be subsidized to purchase a new home within the state.

	13-06-2004 05:56									#13
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Yes, expensive but there before the last 10 years or so you could find places a few miles inland where normal people could still afford to buy. The multimillion dollar mansions were all clustered in the beach cities while nice, clean, affordable track homes were available 15 miles in land or so. Now, even 60 miles in land will run you $450,000. About 100 miles northeast in Riverside county you can still find houses for around $300,000 but that's rare. Most of the new ones are going for $400,000 even all the way out there in the desert.

So does anyone know where I can find a city with a good economy and nice weather with affordable housing?

	13-06-2004 06:01									#14
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Knoxville, TN. Didn't you read my earlier posts?

	13-06-2004 06:04									#15
	Support Apolyton

I prefer coastal cities especially west coast cities. Maybe Oregon or Washington have more reasonable home prices.

Ramo: I lived in Santa Barbara for four years between 1998 and 2002 and I know exactly what you mean. There were thirty year old track homes with four bedrooms and 1800 square feet going for $4-$5 million. I'm sure by now they are up in the $6-8 million range. I'd be surprised if there wasn't some sort of speculative bubble.

My parents were always into buying and renting out realestate but most of the people I knew growing up wouldn't ever consider doing that. Now, it seems like everyone who can possibly afford to buy a second or third home are going the buy and rent out route. Easy credit and the expectation of there always being a greater fool has lead to some huge price increases over the last 10 years.

Last edited by Oerdin on 13-06-2004 at 06:16

	13-06-2004 06:04									#16
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Oerdin, Here is the deal. many places in Ca. are experiencing a 5-7% appreciation rate PER MONTH! With your income you should look for an "interest only" loan to get the kind of house you desire. With this type of loan, you only pay the interest and have no principle reduction, but with those kinds of appreciation rates you should still build plenty of equity. If you want to maximize the kind of house you can have in 5 years, then bite the bullet and buy smaller in a high appreciation area. Hold the property until the market starts to peak and then sell and buy in a neighborhood that has had a more reasonable appreciation. There are many different tactics and many different loans available to you. If you are serious about buying then PM me. Most of the mortgage lending I do is in California. I can definately help!

	13-06-2004 06:22									#17
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

However, if CA is experiencing a housing bubble, Oerdin could lose his ass on an "interest only" loan - especially if his $300,000 loan has, as collateral, a newly-revalued $150,000 house. Ouch!

	13-06-2004 06:27									#18
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: Originally posted by JohnT However, if CA is experiencing a housing bubble, Oerdin could lose his ass on an "interest only" loan - especially if his $300,000 loan has, as collateral, a newly-revalued $150,000 house. Ouch!

Trust me...it's no where near the peak yet. Our corporate gurus say 5 years. Plus, you know I'm not going to screw somebody who's gotten shot at on my behalf!

	13-06-2004 06:32									#19
	Remove this text

High here as well.

I've seen some relatively modest houses (modest from where I'm from) go for 750,000. Back home they'd go for maybe 200,000 CDN

Everyone of my friends are looking at moving back out to the Valley when they get married, and want to have kids. None of us will be able to afford a house, and all of us are professionals of one sort or another, (doctors, nurses, etc.) so we are not that hard up.

	13-06-2004 06:39									#20
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

House prices are going to take a hit as interest rates rise over the next year or so. Remember that interest rates act like gravity in our economy. As interest rates rise, most assets, including houses, immediately become less valuable.

It's tough to know how much of a hit the prices will take. Maybe it will be just a reduced growth in house prices. Maybe it will be a substantial reduction, or something in between. House prices in California have been known to hit rough spots in the past.

	13-06-2004 07:25									#21
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

Real Estate is on a huge boom right now, and prices are very high. It might be worth delaying the purchase of a house until prices have dipped some.

	13-06-2004 07:29									#22
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi Real Estate is on a huge boom right now, and prices are very high. It might be worth delaying the purchase of a house until prices have dipped some.

That's why I'm renting instead of buying. Well, that, plus the fact that I'm broke.

	13-06-2004 08:11									#23
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: Originally posted by DanS House prices are going to take a hit as interest rates rise over the next year or so. Remember that interest rates act like gravity in our economy. As interest rates rise, most assets, including houses, immediately become less valuable. It's tough to know how much of a hit the prices will take. Maybe it will be just a reduced growth in house prices. Maybe it will be a substantial reduction, or something in between. House prices in California have been known to hit rough spots in the past.

This is not necessarily the case. Interest rates don't affect housing prices nearly as much as local economic conditions. Interest rates, in economically growing areas, tend to affect marketing time. In the California market a situation currently exists where multiple offers are being made on properties and these offers are, in many cases, above the asking price. The net-net of this is: There is an imbalance with buyers and sellers. As long as this is the case, then the market will remain very strong. The only effect that rising interest rates will have is in marketing time and loan type. For example, fixed rates on Conforming mortgages have risen approximately 100 basis points in the last 6 weeks. This has caused many buyers to purchase using 5/1 ARMs or 7/1 ARMs as opposed to fixed rate loans. It has not caused any reduction in the number of purchase applications. The main effect of rising interest rates is primarily to dampen the refinance market and the first time buyer...which it has done. The market in California is predominately made up of people who have owned before. Analysis of the California economy shows that this trend should continue.

The "rough spots" in the past have been related to two specific events: 1.) The S&L failures, and 2.) contraction of the defense industry. Suprisingly, the dot-com bubble bursting, barely caused a ripple.

	13-06-2004 08:13									#24
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

quote: Originally posted by loinburger That's why I'm renting instead of buying. Well, that, plus the fact that I'm broke.

Broke is no excuse! You can buy with $0 out of pocket.

	13-06-2004 08:24									#25
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

Sure you can, it just costs twice as much to do it.

Better to wait a coupla years, when I can put down the 20% down payment.

	13-06-2004 08:27									#26
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

Oerdin,

I am in the same situation as you.

Most of us feel trapped. The market has gotten to the point where it is impossible to get a house. The MINIMUM annual income needed to buy a house in Orange County is 80K. That's MINIMUM. But who the hell wants to live in Orange County, an overpriced strip mall with the pretentious attitude that goes with it.

I really have no idea how all of these people have houses. It is UNREAL to me. I don't know how lower income people do it. They must have bought their houses 10 years ago.

One important question you should ask yourself is, do you REALLY want a house? Or are you just doing it because you don't think you will be able to afford it in a couple of years? I know alot of people are getting into housing because they believe that there are no more affordable houses left and if they don't buy now, they will never be able to buy.

1) Riverside County is your best bet. I have a friend who just bought a house in Perris for 250K and it's a 3800 sq. foot with land. In Southern California that is UNHEARD OF. It's already appreciated 100K though.

2) Aside from that, LA County still has alot of affordable housing but you have to really know the place to find it. You have to find an area that is in a buffer zone between the ghetto and a nice area. There are a bunch of these places around Long Beach. Long Beach used to be a huge bargain but now even there the appreciation rates are the highest in the nation, even outpacing the Bay Area.


The bottom line is that Southern California is OUT of land. There is nothing left. Even in suburb areas like Orange County, they are starting to build UP and not OUT.

In my opinion this is going to continue until something like the Sky Car comes along and we can all get some cheap land out in the desert or in Arizona or Nevada.

http://www.moller.com/skycar/

	13-06-2004 08:48									#27
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

PLATO check your PM box

	13-06-2004 10:04									#28
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker PLATO check your PM box

Back at ya!

	13-06-2004 11:25									#29
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

Las Vegas is well on it's way into turning out like that.

People from California are impressed at how cheap our houses are.

But it's getting more and more difficult to find anything under $200,000 anymore

	13-06-2004 11:32									#30
	Support Apolyton

quote: Originally posted by DanS San Diego has always been pretty expensive housing-wise, hasn't it?

It didn't help that the Navy shut down the Bases in the SF Bay area, and moving most of the pacific Fleet to SD.

Granted, the actual number of ships in SD are now less than 5 years ago, but number of personnell is higher than ever. And since the Navy has been buying up land for housing, and doles out BAH based on the average cost of rent within a hundred mile radius of the base, it does a pretty good job of keeping the housing market up.