17-06-2004 08:57									#1
	Discussion: 6 or 9 Knights to Parthemunde? Got spare money?

Currently, 2 more votes say we attack Parthemunde. But with what forces?

Previous planning had been for only 6, but 6 might not have very good chances unless they have their capital core completely undefended. So, should we raise the number to 9?

We'll be playing that way this turn, as it will be reversible next turn if we decide to have the 3 knights turn back to Ruhrpott. Next turn will be the last chance to do so, however; we have to decide before then.

So, what say you? If we send only 6 to Parthemunde, we'll have 24 knights with which to attack Ruhrpott (in addition to the 5 muskets and a combat settler). If we send 9 to Parthemunde, we'll of course have only 21 at Ruhrpott.



I think we should send 9. 6 won't be able to overcome much; 9 gives it a bit of a greater shot in hell if they have some core defenses in the area. Plus, we can then call them "The Nine" who are searching for the Pyramid of power.

	17-06-2004 09:18									#2
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9 instead of 6 is a huge increase in our chances at Parthemunde.

For Ruhrpott, 21 instead of 24 is just a drop in the bucket.

	17-06-2004 09:30									#3
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I voted no on the Parth strike, because I think it will fail.
So....I'd rather only lose 6 knights than 9.

And give the FP strike the best chance of succeeding.

	17-06-2004 10:49									#4
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I would rather we weren't going on this strike as well, but since we are, I think 9 gives it some better chances.

	17-06-2004 12:21									#5
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just to give you all a full accounting

Currently:
Group A (initial landing): 7 Boats with 1 Settler, 5 Muskets & 15 knights.
Group B (after Settler builds beachhead city): 3 Boats with 9 Knights (3 are Elite).
Parth: 2 boats with 6 Knights.
Possible Followup: 1 Galley with 2 Knights.


If we send 3 more knights to Parth, this is the OOB for the different groups:
Group A (initial landing): 6 Boats with 1 Settler, 5 Muskets & 12 knights.
Group B (after Settler builds beachhead city): 3 Boats with 9 Knights (3 are Elite).
Parth: 3 boats with 9 Knights.
Possible Followup: 1 Galley with 2 Knights.

I know that we are leaving the Initial landing group a little bit open, but this gives us a much better chance to succeed at both strikes.

Don't forget, CFC will also be helping and CGN will try to keep their forces occupied in the south for as long as possible.

lets get the best out of all of our Gambles. send 9 to Parth.

E_T

	17-06-2004 13:52									#6
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I'm thinking that 9 would be a great idea.

	17-06-2004 14:11									#7
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Nine Knights. A reduction of three at Ruhr is small. An increase of 3 at Parthe is large.

	17-06-2004 18:44									#8
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Nine.

THE Nine, even. Maybe led by one of our elites to play the part of the Witchking...[/LoTR geek]

-Arrian

	17-06-2004 18:48									#9
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I'd like to take nine, since Parth seems to be closer to their army than Ruhrpott, and we don't want to mes about gambling...

	17-06-2004 19:15									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Nine. THE Nine, even. Maybe led by one of our elites to play the part of the Witchking...[/LoTR geek] -Arrian

9

	17-06-2004 19:42									#11
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Well, if we're going to do it, let's do it well

Nine it is!

	17-06-2004 19:42									#12
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Well, if we're going to do it, let's do it well

Nine it is!

	17-06-2004 19:54									#13
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Well, if we're going to do it, let's do it well

Nine it is!

	17-06-2004 19:58									#14
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Nice triplicate.

	17-06-2004 20:18									#15
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@ Sleepy.

-Arrian

	17-06-2004 20:24									#16
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Was that a ZargonX double Post

OR

Was that a post by ZargonX and by one of his Many ZargonX Clones??

E_T

	17-06-2004 21:09									#17
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NINE!

If it were possible, I'd vote to send more. We want this mission to succeed.

--Togas

	17-06-2004 21:09									#18
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The idea of Parth was as a SIDESHOW, a secondary objective which had a possibility of being captured with minimum effort. Now we are almost using half the forces to take Parth than we are to take Ruhr, which is far and away our REAL objective and the target to which this plan had been originally conceived.

What's next, 9 isn't enough and we need 12-15 instead?

Sorry, but given that the odds keep stacking up against us (GWT gets a leader, CGN crumbles faster than we thought) why are we increasing even more the possibilities of our attacks being a total, miserable failure?

	17-06-2004 21:11									#19
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btw, in case some of you haven't noticed, Parthe will have a 3-tile border, which means they'll SEE OUR FLEET the turn before we land since they'll have a 4-tile LOS.

	17-06-2004 22:26									#20
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quote: Was that a post by ZargonX and by one of his Many ZargonX Clones??

It was a thought so nice I said it twice

	17-06-2004 22:30									#21
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9 with the Witch King of Angmar

(My kids more or less FORCE me to be a LOTR geek )

	17-06-2004 22:32									#22
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quote: Originally posted by Master Zen btw, in case some of you haven't noticed, Parthe will have a 3-tile border, which means they'll SEE OUR FLEET the turn before we land since they'll have a 4-tile LOS.

You know, I hadn't thought of that.

* Kloreep sighs

This mission is doomed to failure. All they need is 4-6 units in the area, including workers, and they can block us from landing close enough.

	17-06-2004 22:49									#23
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What? Over? Nothing's over till we say it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl harbor? Hell no!

	17-06-2004 23:13									#24
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Actually... no, it's not impossible to approach without being seen. Just difficult.

While Parth's culture radius is probably at 4 by now, it will be forced to stop 2 tiles out, on the sea layer. Culture cannot enter ocean.

So, if we stop just short of the first layer of ocean tiles that is visible to them, we can move in next turn and land, assuming that we get that move right, which may be difficult depending on Parth's location. But it probably will be right in the black area northeast of Webringen.

Edit: And asleep

Last edited by Kloreep on 17-06-2004 at 23:21

	17-06-2004 23:19									#25
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You are far too overambitious. Think of the possible losses. Again, I'm talking probably against the wind.

We've had analyses before that showed that with this amount of troops at Ruhrpott, we would have a 66% chance. How much less chance do you want?

Again I ask you: why don't you send it all to Parthemunde? Then some of you answered: "because making them lose their granaries is not hurthing them enough" and that "Parthemunde is not the main target, but Ruhrpott is".

Why are you then so hypocritical that you want to take more risk at failing for the main target and making the secend target fail too. Because:

1) If they consider Ruhrpott so important that both Trip and E_T (and everyone agreed with it!!!) that 25 knights would be needed to conquer it, with still only a chance of 66%, why would you then succeed at Parthemunde with only NINE. Is Parthemunde so much less important than Ruhrpott? I don't think so! The fact that it has a wonder proves that is one of their best cities (probably the best) after Webringen and Ruhrpott. Then you may assume that you need probably the same amount of troops to attack Parthemunde.

2) Haven't you learned from the mistakes of the past, the war against GCA? Trip has mentioned that too: chances of 66% are far from a guarantee that your unit will win a battle. Whether this ius due to GCA's magic or the simply game mechanism does not matter, the point is that you have to anticipate on it and that is what you fail to do!

3) What MZ mentions is another point: the Parthemunde strike has a higher chance of faillure. Then Why risk troops in it that can assist in destructing the Ruhrpott area.

Make your choice for either the one or the other and be wise: the ancient Greeks already said that Pride will have a fall. You are close to falling. This step may already prove to be fatal.

4) And you honestly think, Kloreep, that they don't have enough units (not even military units) there to block us? within three tiles from the landing location? Kloreep, I respect your planning, and you'd be a wonderful consul, but I think that assumin g that GWT will do nothing to prevent us from landing is a little naive.

Furthermore, I'm tempted to say that I'll be laughing when this whole attack fails, but it hurts to say so, because I don't want Apolyton to lose. Apolyton deserves to win after all that they've been through, and it would also be good if Apolyton wins, because that would show to others that even a bad starting location with jungle does, with the right approach not nessecarily mean a defeat, but that there is a real chance on victory as well. Apolyton also deserves the honour to win. Let's not throw that away while there are many chances still to win. Losing this attack now will mean a big problem, because it will only take a few more turns for GWT to mobilize that massive army of theirs.

Yet the choice is not up to me and I can only hope that people will make a wise decision here.

Aidun

Last edited by Aidun on 17-06-2004 at 23:31

	17-06-2004 23:24									#26
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Don't ask me why we're splitting forces off, Aidun. But since we are, I think we should give the pro-Parthers the benefit of the doubt and give this mission a chance, just in case the pro-Parthers are right about there being very little defense there. ( I think I've said what I think of that. But that battle is lost...)

	17-06-2004 23:42									#27
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Point 5.

Defeated by Kloreep in chat. Thank you. I forgot that they don't have navigation.

Aidun

Last edited by Aidun on 18-06-2004 at 00:11

	18-06-2004 00:11									#28
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I think that our army will be on par with the GWT army by the time that the GWT assualt on Micco is finished.

Aidun: GWT is so far behind in tech that they won't be able to land here for quite a while yet; they just don't have the techs. With them having Leo's and such a large army you can bet they are now researching at the 40 turn pace. I know that won't be forever, but long enough for our invasion of both sites to happen without fear of an almost immediate landing by GWT.

	18-06-2004 00:17									#29
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Aidun, I agree with your first three points, but not really with #4.

quote: Originally posted by Aidun 4) And you honestly think, Kloreep, that they don't have enough units (not even military units) there to block us? within three tiles from the landing location? Kloreep, I respect your planning, and you'd be a wonderful consul, but I think that assumin g that GWT will do nothing to prevent us from landing is a little naive.

Of course they'd prevent us from landing if they could; and as I said, they could even use workers they have in the area. Any unit will do to block a tile until Marines. Which is why I posted about the strike being doomed to failure when MZ brought up Parth's culture radius.

However, as I then posted, the ocean stops their culture just two tiles out from the city, limiting their cultural sight to 3 tiles from the city. That's just enough for 3-move caravels to go undetected the turn before landing. As such, we are in no more danger of having our boats sighted than is the Ruhrpott strike (which is to say, only a fortified galley in the right place can spot us; though there are probably more coast tiles where a forted galley could spot the Parth group than with the Ruhrpott strike, due to coastal shape).

	18-06-2004 00:22									#30
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Allright, we agree then, but there still is a risk, and if that risk is worth letting 9 night that can be used very well at the Ruhrpott front to cause nessecary or extra damage, that is up to each of you to determine. But I think that with an originally estimated (under the original estimated conditions) succes percentage of less than 66%, which is, for an all-or-nothing attack already quite low, with such a low percentage, you should just not attack at all and think of a better strategy.

Aidun