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Arnelos
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of the Free World
Sep 2002
time: 00:36
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I'm thinking in similar terms to MZ.
~30 Ansar Warriors in the core aroudn Otternasenhausen (which can reach most core locations) and ~10 Ansar Warriors between Ruhrpott and Meiertopia.
When we land, they'l move the ~10 near Meirtopia to attack us. The other ~30 will move toward us as well, but cannot stop our taking of Ruhrpott.
In a one-turn attack, we raze Ruhrpott, any other city easily razable in a single turn, AND GET THE HELL OUT.
With the force on Caravels, we move it south toward former CGN lands. The only question is whether we allow GWT to intentionally sight our fleet so that they know we're headed down there.
If we HAVE a Parthe strike, the rationale would be for GWT's Ansar forces moving along the purple/lavender "highway" line I've shown in the image above to NOT BE IN RANGE OF PARTHE when that strike lands 7 turns later, or at least not enough to stop 9 knights.
THAT is the key assessment, in my opinion. Assume we do all of the above and everything works according to plan (which may be a stretch).
Will GWT not have enough Ansar within reach of Parthemunde after that to stop 9 knights?
I'm tempted to think that they will actually NOT since the main thoroughfare between Ruhrpott and the south is not within 9 of Parthemunde (quite a few tiles further away, in fact). That, said, since they will KNOW that our main force is composed of only ~21 Knights (whatever survives the first landing), how many Ansars will they send to meet it? ALL of them? Or will they write off GCA? Or will they only send a few? If they leave any at home, will there be enough left home AND IN RANGE OF PARTHE to stop the 9 knights at Parthemunde?
So there are two main questions:
1. Will GWT station enough Ansar Warriors WITHIN ONE TURN'S MOVEMENT of Ruhrpott to stop 21 knights?
2. Assuming things go according to plan in Phase 1 and we move what remains of hte Ruhrpott force south, how many Ansar Warriors would still be within ONE TURN'S MOVEMENT of Parthemunde?
If the answer in either case is too high, we want 30 knights at Ruhrpott. If the answer in both cases (or at least a pretty certain one for #1) is that they won't have enough, then the Parthe strike should still be considered.
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Master Zen
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of naughty
Jan 2003
time: 23:36
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Here's more analysis, of movement rates.
First assumption, that they'll assemble their main force somewhere arround Otternasenhausen (Otter for short) with possibly 1/4-1/3 of their ansar around Ruhrpott. That gives us a 2 turn advantage to take the city and get the hell out of there.
The best news is that if they assemble at Otter or east of it, they actually won't be able to hit our stack after it attacks which means we can retreat without any losses on the defense (except for the lone knight which takes the city).
If they assemble west of Otter, they can attack our stack, and it'll be bloody. We can pretty much expect to lose the rest of our forces since they'll also be damaged from the attack on Ruhr.
What is clear to me is that there is little chance for the Ruhr strike to fail unless we get VERY unlucky and GWT is ready for us. This is an extreme, yet NOT IMPOSSIBLE scenario. GWT isn't stupid and they can probably tell that the Ruhr area is the closest one we can actually hit.
now on to Parth.
As you can see from the map, by the 4th turn, GWT can re-assemble in or around Otter. Anything IN or east of Otter can likely get to Parthe on that same turn if Parthe is 4 tiles away from Webringen. If Parthe is 5 tiles away, they will be one tile short. GWT's core cities are all 4-tiles from Parthe except Ottern which is 5-tiles because there is a mountain in the way.
Thus, the only chance we have at taking Parthe is if:
1) We manage to DUPE GWT into following our fleet if it recovers the bulk of our army. This plan will fail if GWT manages to trash our forces at Ruhr since there will be no incentive to send so many units after the pathetic remnants of our Ruhr army. Now the question is: what objective is there where our fleet can sail that can actually trick GWT into sending most of their forces?. There isn't. They might still send them, but if they're smart, they'll only send what they need.
2) If CFC somehow manages to cause interference in the Flamburg area. If we manage to get CFC to still be alive AND to have GWT's army as far east of Otter as possible, the Parth strike will succeed. If not, it won't.
In short, we'd be depending on
1) GWT not being able to decimate our Ruhr force on turn 2 (even if we do manage to trash Ruhr)
2) GWT falling for the decoy of our fleet sailing likely south, against less than vital objectives
3) CFC managing to offer a second alternative decoy to have their army west of Otter.
If any of these three conditions are not met, I seriously doubt we can take out Parthe.
-MZ
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Adrian Hon
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Living in Perplex City
Nov 2001
time: 05:36
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I agree with this new delayed CFC attack - MZ has really made me doubt the success of the 9 Knight Parth strike given that CGN has just folded (even though I did vote for the Parth strike in this poll). However, I think if we do Tibi's timing, then I find it hard to believe that GWT will be able to successfully defend against *three* attacks across their continent.
As Sun Tzu said, 'The general is skillful in attack whose opponent does not know what to defend; and he is skillful in defense whose opponent does not know what to attack.'
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MrWhereItsAt
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New Year's Resolution: 2005 is the year of Where It's At - come get some.
Nov 2001
time: 17:36
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There are two reasons GWT has helped and continue to support GCA. One - an additional 40-turn (or less, MAYBE) advance. Two - support at the UN if it gets that far. GWT knows how weak CGN is, and they must realise that wherever CGN has fled to, it will be small and easy to destroy when they do stage an invasion. With CGN (or CFC) out, they can prevent a UN loss.
Thus GCA is of value to GWT. They will not have gone to all the effort of saving them and repatriating them into their new lands just to let us or anyone else dick them over. With what seems to be a huge effort, Poly has struck at GWT's FP. If we get out with troops (regardless of FP outcome), where is less well defended than GWT that would be a next target? GCA. So, with GWT's troops shunting south again, don't you think a landing from the OTHER direction at a spot on the map we can't even see would be more than predictable? If I were GWT and Poly had fled to sea, I would be re-enforcing the area already attacked, as clearly that is where there are still a number of troops. Corrupt or not, GWT would hardly enjoy losing those cities.
So we have a big landing by Poly at the strategic FP, then their troops vanish off to sea. Which coast is at threat? The East, where nothing has been seen, that is away from Poly's main centres (which are in the East), or the West, where Poly IS, and where it is only a few skips to relatively unprotected GCA?
And you can't have it both ways - budgeting for so many Knights as expendable in the pursuit of severe damage to GWT AND trying to hold back as much as possible in case we lose too many.
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Arnelos
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of the Free World
Sep 2002
time: 00:36
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quote:
Originally posted by MrWhereItsAt
With what seems to be a huge effort, Poly has struck at GWT's FP. If we get out with troops (regardless of FP outcome), where is less well defended than GWT that would be a next target? GCA. So, with GWT's troops shunting south again, don't you think a landing from the OTHER direction at a spot on the map we can't even see would be more than predictable? If I were GWT and Poly had fled to sea, I would be re-enforcing the area already attacked, as clearly that is where there are still a number of troops. Corrupt or not, GWT would hardly enjoy losing those cities. |
A possible answer to the question I have posed in this thread. That said, I disagree with you.
More importantly, however, either of us could be correct. I'm willing to wager 9 knights on the chance that I'm right on this wager and we get to take down Parthemunde at the risk of losing a mere 9 knights if we are wrong. You yourself shared with us how valuable a prize taking out Parthemunde would be.
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Arnelos
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of the Free World
Sep 2002
time: 00:36
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My own suggestion, as I made before, is that the Parthe strike be sent, but that the caravels hover 2 tiles outside of GWT cultural borders in the ocean (so they are not seen) until the timing is right.
If the timing never comes and GWT's entire army remains in their north, we abort the attack and they go home.
The point is that at least sending the 9 knights in 3 caravels to take advantage of an opportunity GWT may give us... well, that's DEFINATELY worthwhile in my book. We can make the decision about whether to LAND those forces and go through with the Parthe strike when we have a better idea of how GWT is reacting to our plans.
EDIT (now that 'poly is back up):
Since it seems quite doubtful that there will be much difference between 21 Knights and 30 Knights at Ruhrpott (if GWT has their ENTIRE Ansar force close, even 30 knights don't stand a chance... if they have a token force, even 15 knights could probably do the job), why not send the 9 knights to be off Parthemunde just in case the opporunity presents itself?
We'll do everything we CAN to encourage GWT to let us take that opportunity, but ultimately the decision about whether to send the bulk of their mlitary south will be up to GWT.
The idea of what to do with CFC is another thing we may want to decide on an ad hoc basis given how things are going. Have we considered the idea of CFC sending their force to a point in the ocean BETWEEN the Flammburg landing and a landing further south and then trying to decide (in collaboration with us) which one to hit at the time based upon what we know then?
Last edited by Arnelos on 24-06-2004 at 02:04
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E_T
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Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001
time: 00:36
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quote:
Originally posted by Arnelos
My own suggestion, as I made before, is that the Parthe strike be sent, but that the caravels hover 2 tiles outside of GWT cultural borders in the ocean (so they are not seen) until the timing is right.
If the timing never comes and GWT's entire army remains in their north, we abort the attack and they go home.
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And how will you know that the timing is right, when GWT is invading our shores??
quote:
The point is that at least sending the 9 knights in 3 caravels to take advantage of an opportunity GWT may give us... well, that's DEFINATELY worthwhile in my book. We can make the decision about whether to LAND those forces and go through with the Parthe strike when we have a better idea of how GWT is reacting to our plans.
EDIT (now that 'poly is back up):
Since it seems quite doubtful that there will be much difference between 21 Knights and 30 Knights at Ruhrpott (if GWT has their ENTIRE Ansar force close, even 30 knights don't stand a chance... if they have a token force, even 15 knights could probably do the job), why not send the 9 knights to be off Parthemunde just in case the opporunity presents itself?
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If Micco had survived for even 1 more turn, I would be all for continueing on this course. As you have shown, in the analysis, that GWT will have a sufficient force available to cover the area. BUT, If they still had forces down in the south and Micco had held out and heavily damaged that attack force, then 21 knights would have been a sufficient force.
That is not the case and I'm just hoping that 30 knights will be enough to do the job.
quote:
We'll do everything we CAN to encourage GWT to let us take that opportunity, but ultimately the decision about whether to send the bulk of their mlitary south will be up to GWT.
The idea of what to do with CFC is another thing we may want to decide on an ad hoc basis given how things are going. Have we considered the idea of CFC sending their force to a point in the ocean BETWEEN the Flammburg landing and a landing further south and then trying to decide (in collaboration with us) which one to hit at the time based upon what we know then? |
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23-06-2004 11:23
Having CFC land two turns ahead of our landing at Parth would definately give us a huge edge. Combine that with having our Knights back on boats and threatening the South of GWT/GCA.
using my limited knowledge of the current situation and my non-existant knowledge of GWT/Bongo's defensive strategies I'd say they are likely to have the vast majority of their ansar force somewhere along the 3 city line of Effenheim, Effenhorst and Sudpforte ready to board boats for an invasion of Apolyton. 
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