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Ramo
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Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:35
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quote:
His followers may have looted the Shi'ite version of Medina -- where do you get your world view? |
Al Jazeera are terrorists. Fox News link please. 
Seriously, either the looting has been too minor for it to have any significant effect, the police were mistaken, or it was simply rumor (one'd think that the story would be carried somewhere, anywhere, if there was anything to it - I haven't seen anything from the bloggers either).
The bottom line is, as the Cole suggests, ""Moqtada's central message, of 'American troops out now!' has almost certainly moved from the fringes in May of 2003 to the political center among Iraqis in August 2004."" He had lost some troops, but he has gained far more recruits and even more political allies (vis a vis us).
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Patroklos
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Back home in good ole Norfolk VA
Dec 2001
time: 05:35
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quote:
"Moqtada's central message, of 'American troops out now" |
Of course Iraqis are not stupid, and while this may strike a heart cord with most (it should with anyone who is occupied, even if they were the forces of heaven), they know this is impossible and not in their best interests.
And Sadr's message has alot more than that. And while some poor are attracted to this one platform issue and may thus "like" Sadr for it, alot don't see eye to eye with him on his islamic law bull.
Being favorable dispositioned is not the same as cutting 20 years off your life by fighting for him.
Last edited by Patroklos on 31-08-2004 at 23:05
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Ned
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of Aptos, CA
Oct 1999
time: 21:35
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BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Rebel Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called for his followers across Iraq to stop fighting against U.S. and Iraqi forces and said he planned to enter Iraqi politics in the coming days, an al-Sadr aide said Monday.
The announcement came three days after al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia stopped fighting with U.S. and Iraqi forces in the holy city of Najaf under a peace deal brokered by religious authorities to end three weeks of fighting there.
But fighting continued in other areas of the country, and al-Sadr representatives and Iraqi government officials met Monday to try to negotiate a peace agreement to end fighting in the Baghdad slum of Sadr City.
Al-Sadr "has called for a halting of all military operations in Iraq," Naim Al-Kaabi, an al-Sadr aide in Baghdad, said Monday afternoon.
"This latest initiative shows that we want stability and security in this country by ending all confrontation in all parts of Iraq," said Sheik Raed al-Khadami, al-Sadr's spokesman in Baghdad. "Al-Sadr's office in Najaf will call within the next two days to join the political process."
The plan appeared to meet a key demand of interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, who has called for the militia to be disbanded and turned into a political movement. Al-Sadr had previously resisted that demand.
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Ramo
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Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:35
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Ned, source? I can't find a reference to this. I found a contemporaneous NYT article mentioning that the peace talks are currently at an impasse.
quote:
Of course Iraqis are not stupid, and while this may strike a heart cord with most (it should with anyone who is occupied, even if they were the forces of heaven), they know this is impossible and not in their best interests. |
That's not what he was saying. There are loads of people who don't see the US as acting in their interests, and want them out now. Them's the facts. Regardless of what you might think is best for them.
quote:
And Sadr's message has alot more than that. |
Duh. That's why he wrote "central message."
quote:
Being favorable dispositioned is not the same as cuttign 20 years off your life by fighting for him are not the same. |
Having a favorable disposition towards a cause makes it more likely that one would fight for it. In any case, I specifically mentioned what he'd get from less radically Islamist Shia: an alliance against the US. To quote from the article,
quote:
Six months ago, Sheikh Jawad al-Khalasi was what most would consider an Iraqi Shiite moderate. Critical of the militant ideas of fellow Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, Mr. Khalasi preached a more cooperative approach toward the Americans and the interim Iraqi government.
Then, last Thursday, when Iraqi snipers opened fire on him and thousands of demonstrators converging on Najaf, hoping to end the siege there and protect the shrine, Khalasi changed his mind. Now he's a radical, a troubling sign that Mr. Sadr has grown stronger from a three-week-long standoff that the Iraqi government once hoped might reduce Sadr to irrelevance.
[...]
"This is the beginning of the end for the Americans," says Khalasi, speaking from his home in Baghdad's upper-class Shiite district of Kadhimiya. "What will happen now is that all the political parties will unite to kick the Americans out of Iraq. You have seen even the Sunni people starting to support Moqtada. All this will encourage people to be united." |
Last edited by Ramo on 31-08-2004 at 01:11
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lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:35
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quote:
Originally posted by Ramo
quote:
What does Fallujah have to do with this? Incidentally, of the major Shia figures, the Sunnis admire Sadr the most. |
the insurgents in Fallujah and elsewhere may do so, as far as i can see Baghdad Sunnis do not.
[QUOTE]Najafites never liked him anyways since it was the center of the clerical establishment. He loses nothing by antagonizing them further. In the slums of every other Southern city, they love Sadr. |
I saw something the other day, from a brit source, i think the BBC, that would indicate that Sadrs men are highly disliked in Basra, and that locals are eager for Brits to drive him out.
I see no evidence that he has firm support anywhere outside of Sadr city (which is NOT to minimize his support, since Sadr city has about half the population of Baghdad, apparently)
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lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:35
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quote:
Originally posted by Ramo
Well, there've been fairly consistently pro-Sadr demonstrations and there's been a pretty significant (non-imported) Mahdi Army presence there. I'm not sure what would convince you that Sadr has a lot of support in the slums of Basra.
I'm curious, though, what exactly was the substance of this source that you're referring to? |
Daily Telegraph (I know, i know)
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British military limits patrols in Basra amid violence
By Thomas Harding
LONDON DAILY TELEGRAPH
Published August 30, 2004
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BASRA, Iraq -- After three deaths in as many weeks, the British army has stopped patrolling the streets of Basra despite pleas from residents to take on the Iraqi insurgents.
With troops now moving only in armored vehicles on patrols not more than 100 yards from base, forces loyal to rebel cleric Muqtada al-Sadr have stepped into the vacuum, roaming the streets with rocket-propelled grenades and AK-47s.
Vital reconstruction has been halted, and citizens are suffering deprivations daily.
But the military insists that its strategy of waiting out daily bombardments by Sheik al-Sadr's Mahdi's Army is preferable to attacking the militia, which they say would lead to an escalation of violence and civilian deaths.
Instead, they have thrown up a ring of steel around Basra with tanks guarding almost every bridge, watching for an estimated 600 insurgents who are expected to return from Najaf, where they left the Imam Ali shrine Friday.
The British strategy has not gone down well with residents, who are subjected to curfews, dwindling food and water supplies, scant basic amenities and daily intimidation from the militiamen.
Sheik al-Sadr does not have widespread support in Basra, but he has attracted a significant number of impoverished religious fanatics and mercenaries. The local police are inadequately armed to confront the insurgents without British support.
"These last three weeks have been very difficult for us," said a 26-year-old teacher who identified himself only as Arrif. "It is not safe to go out on the street because there are bombs and shootings. We are afraid the situation will escalate and that this will affect the economy because people cannot go to work.
"The majority of Basra people want the [British] army to enter the city."
Others agreed.
"People in Basra blame the British forces for this situation. They want them to deploy outside their barracks, because this would get rid of the Mahdi militia," said student Wa'il, 24.
"Of course, people will be killed, but we will accept casualties if the British deploy. We need your help now to prevent these bad things."
With special forces operating in the city, the British army has gathered enough intelligence on the key leaders of the estimated 400 insurgents to "take them out if we want to," according to military sources who said any decision to retake Basra by force must come from the politicians in London.
"I can understand what the Iraqis are saying, but confronting violence with violence is not going to work," said Maj. Ian Clooney, a British military spokesman in Basra.
There are frequent gunbattles between the British and insurgents, who sustained losses of about 400 in the past four months.
"If our soldiers become a target, they will fire back and take them out," Maj. Clooney said. "We don't make a big song and dance about casualties we have inflicted on them, but [rocket-propelled grenade] operators, gunmen and mortar teams are being killed."
The area around Basra remains quiet, but there are still attacks on bases. British bases have suffered more than 1,000 bombardments.
The Royal Marines of 40 Commando, who do not have armored vehicles and therefore have been consigned mainly to convoy escort duty, have made impressive inroads in befriending locals and carrying out patrols in the desert.
Although several pipelines were blown up over the weekend, the Royal Welch Fusiliers have been able to ward off many attacks on the vital conduits that pump oil to tankers in the Gulf.
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Ramo
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Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:35
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They quote a student, probably a middle or upper class person, so not very representative. So, a plea, not "pleas."
The rest of the claims go unattributed (there's the teacher - educated and probably reasonably well off - again, not Sadr's constitutency, but he doesn't say that he necessarily opposes Sadr, just that the insurgeny isn't very confortable - edit: nevermind about that read the story too quickly, but nonetheless the point remains thaht this ain't Sadr's constituency either).
Of course, it's also the Telegraph, and they're not exactly the paragon of journalism.
Last edited by Ramo on 31-08-2004 at 23:36
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lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:35
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quote:
Originally posted by Ramo
They quote a student, probably a middle or upper class person, so not very representative. So, a plea, not "pleas."
The rest of the claims go unattributed (there's the teacher - educated and probably reasonably well off - again, not Sadr's constitutency, but he doesn't say that he necessarily opposes Sadr, just that the insurgeny isn't very confortable).
Of course, it's also the Telegraph, and they're not exactly the paragon of journalism. |
But they also quote a Brit officer, defending a policy that is implicitly under attack - surely if this was just the DT hyping a couple of dug up quotes, he wouldnt say this
'"I can understand what the Iraqis are saying, but confronting violence with violence is not going to work," said Maj. Ian Clooney, a British military spokesman in Basra. "'
I understand what youre saying about the class differences. I certainly realize Sadr has support among the working class in the southern cities, although ive also seen strong hints that its not healthy to voice opposition to Sadr in many of the places where the Mahdi army is active. I dont think we'll be able to judge his support for sure till theres an election.
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lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:35
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lets look at the NYT article you linked to;
quote:
In talks with a foreigner on Monday, several traditional tribal leaders in Sadr City - men whose influence may have been undercut by Mr. Sadr and his fighters - were reluctant to criticize him. They expressed the wish above all that the Americans would clear out and let Iraqis solve their own problems.
"The Americans come in here shooting, and it has made the people want revenge," said Sheik Jadoa Abdul al-Masary, a clan leader in the northeast corner of Sadr City.
"My basic advice to the Americans is to leave this area," he said, furiously fingering a string of plastic beads. "There's no oil, no gold, just poor families. What's the reason for coming in here and making trouble?"
Sheik Jowad Maawi al-Maham, the elderly tribal head of a nearby neighborhood, said: "Our people were happy to see Saddam go. But after they entered Iraq, the Americans changed the deal."
"They used excessive force and called the Iraqi people terrorists," he said. "We haven't seen security or democracy or reconstruction."
He fully understood, he said, why young men from his neighborhood rushed to Najaf in recent weeks to fight the invaders and defend Mr. Sadr.
But as the sheik walked foreign visitors to their car, a telling exchange occurred, perhaps a hint of power-jostling to come in Sadr City and other Shiite parts of Iraq.
A young Sadr captain rushed up and peremptorily asked the visitors what they were doing here. The sheik angrily shoved the man away, shouting, "Leave them alone; these are my guests!" |
now these are tribal leaders in Sadr city, a working class Shia area, and generally considered strongly pro-Sadr. They express disappointment at the course of the occupation, and prefer not to have american troops in Sadr city, but they do not demand US withdrawl from all of Iraq. The final suggestion that there is likely power jostling between them and the sadrists seems based on thin evidence, but i presume the reporters are putting that in the context of other things they know - and these are NYT reporters, not Daily Telegraph.
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28-08-2004 23:26
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