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Spiffor is offline Spiffor
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Nov 2001
time: 06:35
  Old Post 25-08-2004 15:25
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I went to IraqiBodyCount last summer to look at the figures while debating with LOTM. The body count was slightly higher than 10,000 by then. 12,000 is the figure I seem to recall.

It means the Americans tend not to kill as many civilians during the peace (the year that separates us from the time I went there) than during the war. It's good.

DanS is offline DanS
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  Old Post 25-08-2004 18:20 Visit DanS's homepage!
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It looks to me like Sistani is a very wise man. He is calling on the Shiites to march on Najaf. The Mahdi Army has nearly been destroyed in Najaf (hats off to the US Marine Corps), so it's time for the religious leaders to take back their shrine. Sadr is countering with his own call to both Shiites and Sunnis, but we'll see who has the mostest followers...

Once they take back the shrine, I think Sadr might be finished politically. They will do an inventory of the valuables in the shrine, which as I understand are substantial, and will find some missing.

The only thing I fear is that when the Shiites get to the city, that they will be apalled at the damage done.

quote:
Sistani Returns to Iraq, Calls for March on Najaf

By Michael Georgy
Reuters
Wednesday, August 25, 2004; 6:05 AM

NAJAF, Iraq -- Iraq's most influential Shiite cleric returned to the country on Wednesday and urged Iraqis to march on the "burning city" of Najaf, where fighting is creeping ever closer to its sacred shrine.

Aides said Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani arrived in Iraq from Kuwait and was heading to Najaf, his adopted home, after getting heart treatment in London for three weeks.

The news of Sistani's return came as U.S. and Iraqi forces tightened their grip around Mahdi Army militants loyal to a radical cleric who have holed up in Najaf's Imam Ali mosque, advancing to within 400 yards of the rebel-held shrine.

The call to march on Najaf by the Shiite moderate, who has said little about a crisis that has killed hundreds and undermined the authority of interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, could escalate passions among the majority Shiite community.

"Najaf is burning. Ayatollah Sistani is on his way back and calls on Iraqis from all provinces to join him in the holy city," aide Hamed Khafaf said by telephone from Beirut.

The logistics of the march would be known shortly, he said. Another aide said the militia should leave the mosque and U.S. forces should not interfere.

Witnesses saw more than a dozen vehicles heading for the southern city of Basra from Kuwait, led by police cars with sirens wailing. Police said Sistani was in the convoy.

Sistani's departure for London coincided with the outbreak of the rebellion by the militia of radical cleric Moqtada Sadr, a young firebrand who has challenged the collegiate leadership of the Najaf clergy led by the elder Sistani.

The call to march and Sistani's sudden return appears to be an attempt to reclaim some of the political ground captured during the uprising by Sadr, who has painted himself as the face of anti-U.S. resistance and icon to the poor masses.

Sadr aide Mahmoud Soudani told Al Arabiya television the Mahdi militia were prepared to talk to halt the fighting.

"We are ready to respond to any call from Sayed Sistani or anyone else to stop the bloodshed," he said.

Sadr also called for his own followers to march on Najaf.

In the heart of Najaf's old city, American tanks fired shells and troops advanced closer to the mosque after U.S. aircraft unleashed their firepower overnight. A threatened assault on the shrine has not yet gone ahead.

Gunfire rocked the area and smoke rose into the sky.

Army 1st Lieut. Michael Throckmortan, speaking not far from the mosque, said American and Iraqi forces were trying to isolate the militia in one place before an attack.

"What we are trying to do is shape the battlefield to create the big picture. We are trying to do everything that will give us the advantage," Throckmortan told Reuters.

Asked what Iraqi forces who entered the battle zone for the first time on Tuesday would do, Throckmortan said: "We hope that they are the first ones to set foot inside [the shrine]."

Iraqi Defense Minister Hazim Shalan had warned the Mahdi fighters they would be wiped out if they did not leave the mosque by Tuesday evening. U.S. and Iraqi officials have said only Iraqi forces would storm the mosque.

Asked about reports some militia had fled the shrine, Throckmortan said: "I've seen no evidence they are leaving."

Some 500 Iraqi troops have been deployed to the area around the shrine.

In an interview broadcast on the BBC earlier on Wednesday, one of Sistani's aides in London called on Sadr's militia to leave the shrine and added U.S. troops should not be involved in bringing the fighting to an end.

Sayed Mohamed Musawi said the situation could be solved only by the Iraqi government alone.

"Americans interfering in this will not help the situation at all," he said. "We always say that the Americans should be very far from the holy places. They should not involve themselves in this problem."

One Sadr aide said on Tuesday the militia was willing to hold talks to end the fighting. But another mocked Defense Minister Shalan's threat -- the latest in a series of government ultimatums.

The fighting in the southern city has driven oil prices to record highs and sparked clashes in other Iraqi cities.

Some 2,000 U.S. Marines backed by aircraft and tanks have done most of the fighting, pounding rebels whose main weapons are AK-47 assault rifles, rocket propelled grenades and mortars.

But any raid by U.S. troops on the shrine could trigger mass protests from the majority Shiite community.

U.S. aircraft attacked targets in the staunchly Sunni Iraqi city of Fallujah early on Wednesday, killing three people and wounding four others, a hospital official said.

Additional reporting by Khaled Yacoub Oweis and Andrew Marshall in Baghdad, Fadil Badran in Fallujah, Kate Kelland and Michael Holden in London.

Last edited by DanS on 25-08-2004 at 18:26

Ned is offline Ned
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  Old Post 25-08-2004 21:24
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If a bunch of civilians get mixed in with Sadr's militia, this could get messy.

DanS is offline DanS
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  Old Post 25-08-2004 21:38 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Sadr's militia outside the shrine is being finished off this evening by the USMC, it is being reported. So it will be Sadr's civilians against Sistani's civilians, with the Iraqi Intervention Force (i.e., an ad hoc amalgam of the shiite militias who decided to throw in their lot with us) looking on or participating in some fashion. Rather like a religious "get out the vote" drive. Sistani has the natural upper hand, since the people of Najaf are with him, but it looks like Sadr might be able to bus some followers down from Sadr city. I think it's slightly too long to walk in one day from Sadr city to Najaf. The "showdown" starts tomorrow morning.

Last edited by DanS on 25-08-2004 at 21:50

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  Old Post 25-08-2004 21:56
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You know, I think we were lucky that the original battle for Baghdad last year did not turn out like this!

Joseph is offline Joseph
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  Old Post 26-08-2004 05:16
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This is good, he Sadr hides in a shrine and shoot at us, but no, no, no you can shoot back because this is a shrine. He very lucky that I'm not the Pres.

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
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  Old Post 26-08-2004 07:20 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Ramo
No. It'd seriously enrage the entire Shia world (to get a sense of that, most of the gov't we appointed to rule Najaf, who all hate Sadr, resigned because of our reckless policies), and even the Sunni world to some extent (the Mufti of Cairo, essentially the second most influential Sunni cleric, is getting pretty angry for instance). And if there's major destruction to the Shrine, it'll be even worse (it's bad enough that we've been bombing the most sacred cemetary they've got). And the Sadrists, who just had their comrades and relatives martyred, their most sacred site reduced to rubble, will get extraordinarily pissed off. And they'll think that the end of the world is coming. I think that it'd precipitate full-scale Sadrist rebellion. Especially if Sadr gets killed as well.


Overexaggeration.

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
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  Old Post 26-08-2004 07:21 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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Sistani is the sh1t

Sadr is a sh1thead

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  Old Post 26-08-2004 07:31
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quote:
I think Sadr might be finished politically.


If he survives he'll be a hero in the eyes of many Iraqis.
Sistani is old and I don't know who is in line to become the top dog but this Sadr dude will climb some rungs.

DanS is offline DanS
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  Old Post 26-08-2004 07:37 Visit DanS's homepage!
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More moderates are in line to become top dog. If Sistani wants to, he could end Sadr's career.

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  Old Post 26-08-2004 20:32 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Ugghhh... It turned out pretty ugly. Nothing resolved yet and 75 people died...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...-2004Aug26.html

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  Old Post 26-08-2004 20:44
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quote:
By ABDUL HUSSEIN AL-OBEIDI, Associated Press Writer

NAJAF, Iraq - Iraq (news - web sites)'s top Shiite cleric made a dramatic return to Najaf at the head of a massive convoy Thursday hoping to end three weeks of fighting in the holy city. But hours earlier, a mortar barrage hit a mosque filled with Iraqis preparing to join his march, killing 27 people and wounding 63.

Along with the mortar attack, another group of thousands of marchers heading into Najaf from its sister-city Kufa came under fire from an Iraqi National Guard base. At least three people were killed and 46 wounded.


The violence could undermine the peace effort by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani — the most widely respected cleric among Iraq's Shiite majority. His intervention could be the best hope so far to end the fighting between U.S.-Iraqi forces and the Mahdi Army militia of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.


Upon al-Sistani's arrival, the heavy clashes in Najaf appeared to ease, though gunfire still echoed sporadically across the city. Several hundred yards away from the house where al-Sistani was staying, al-Sadr fighters and Iraqi security forces exchanged fire, and at least three people were wounded.


After al-Sistani's arrival, the U.S. military announced it would hold its fire for 24 hours "to see if this agreement will be adhered to by al-Sadr," said U.S. Rear Adm. Gregory J. Slavonic, a military spokesman. "Coalition forces will support Sistani's effort to return the city to the citizens of Najaf."


With all sides — the Americans, the Iraqi government and al-Sadr — giving at least nominal support to al-Sistani's efforts, it was not known who fired the mortars that struck the mosque in Kufa or whether it was an attempt to sabotage the peace effort. Iraqi police have shot at peaceful marchers several times in the past few days.


The 75-year-old ayatollah is seeking to bring his enormous popularity to bear, encouraging Shiites to march on Najaf and get all sides to stop fighting.


Thousands of people heeded the call, marching from their hometowns to Najaf and gathering on the outskirts of the holy city Thursday, but witnesses said police barred them from entering the city.


The fighting here has killed scores of civilians and nearly paralyzed the city since it began Aug. 5. In the last 24 hours, 55 people were killed and 376 injured during clashes in Najaf, Sa'ad al-Amili of the Health Ministry said Thursday. At least 40 people have been killed in Kufa over the same period, including the victims in the mosque.


The military said Thursday that a U.S. soldier in Baghdad was killed by a mortar attack the night before. As of Wednesday, 964 U.S. service members have died since the beginning of military operations in Iraq in March 2003, according to the U.S. Defense Department.


Al-Sistani — who had been in London undergoing medical treatment — has refused to get involved in previous crises and has stayed above the fray, supporting neither al-Sadr nor the U.S. troops and the pro-U.S. government.


He holds the loyalty of a far broader swath of Iraq's Shiite majority than al-Sadr. Al-Sadr's fiery anti-U.S. message has drawn many poorer, disillusioned Shiites but is seen by other Shiites as too radical. Al-Sadr's followers have set up their own religious courts and arrested hundreds of people on charges including selling alcohol and music deemed immoral.


Al-Sistani is calling for Najaf and Kufa to be declared weapons-free cities, for all foreign forces to withdraw from Najaf and leave security to the police and for the Iraqi government to compensate those harmed by the fighting here.


Al-Sistani's 30-vehicle convoy drove 220 miles from the southern city of Basra to Najaf, joined by at least a thousand cars from towns along the way, where supporters on the street cheered al-Sistani.


He arrived in Najaf just before 3 p.m. and went directly to one of his houses in the al-Sa'ad neighborhood, about a mile from the revered Imam Ali Shrine, where the militants were holed up.


Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi declared a 24-hour cease-fire in Najaf from the time of al-Sistani's arrival "to reinforce our commitment to peace."


Allawi expressed hope al-Sistani's peace initiative would succeed so the government would not have to resort to a long-threatened raid on the Imam Ali Shrine — an action that would likely outrage Iraq's Shiite majority.





"I stress that this is the last call for peace and that this is the last chance to put an end to the spilling of innocent blood," Allawi said in a statement. "God willing, our prayers for Iraq's peace and stable security will be met."

Al-Sadr's aides had backed al-Sistani's call for a march on Najaf and urged their followers to join in.

Thousands of Shiites had gathered at the mosque in Kufa, an al-Sadr stronghold, to march to Najaf when the mortar rounds hit — one inside the mosque compound and around two others at the main gate, according to witnesses.

"This is a criminal act. We just wanted to launch a peaceful demonstration," said Hani Hashem, bringing an injured friend to the hospital.

The blasts killed 27 people and wounded 63, according to Mohammed Abdul Kadhim, an official at Furat al-Awsat hospital in Kufa.

Blood was splattered on the pavement in a courtyard beside the mosque and a pair of sandals was left nearby, according to Associated Press Television News footage. Shrapnel from the explosions tore small chunks out of walls and the pavement, but the compound did not appear to have suffered serious structural damage.

Outside the hospital's gate, crowds of angry people gathered, shouting "God is great!"

After the attack, thousands of demonstrators loyal to al-Sadr marched on nearby Najaf but came under fire from a base between the two cities housing Iraqi national guardsmen and U.S. troops, witnesses said.

The marchers scattered when the gunfire broke out. The day before, gunfire from the same base killed eight people and wounded 56 others who were taking part in what appeared to be a peaceful demonstration supporting al-Sadr.

Another mortar attack in Kufa on Wednesday, apparently targeting a police checkpoint, killed two civilians, including an 8-year-old boy.

Al-Sadr aide Hussam al-Husseini blamed the mortar attack on American forces backing Iraqi troops in the city. "We held the interim government responsible for this bombing," he said.

A U.S. military spokesman denied firing the barrage, saying troops were still avoiding targeting holy sites in Kufa and Najaf.

"We did not have any weapons systems, to include mortars, in range of the Kufa Mosque last night or today, nor have we conducted any military operations in the city for the last 48 hours," Marine Capt. Carrie Batson said in an e-mail to The Associated Press on Thursday.

Batson said that militants have been responsible for "wild, undisciplined fire" in the past.

Any damage inflicted by U.S. forces on holy sites would anger Iraq's Shiite majority and could spark a greater uprising against the fledgling interim government, which is also battling a persistent and bloody Sunni insurgency.

In other violence, saboteurs attacked about 20 oil pipelines in southern Iraq late Wednesday, reducing exports from the key oil producing region by at least one third, an official with the state-run South Oil Co. said Thursday on condition of anonymity.


Ugly, definitely.

-Arrian

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 27-08-2004 18:23
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quote:
At least 25 bodies at Sadr's religious court


NAJAF, Iraq (AFP) - At least 25 charred and bloated bodies were discovered in the basement of a religious court set up by rebel cleric Moqtada Sadr in Najaf's Old City, police said.


The bodies were brought up to ground level by police and Iraqi national guardsmen and could be seen lying in the courtyard, an AFP correspondent said.


"We entered the building which was being used as Moqtada Sadr's court and we discovered in the basement a large number of bodies of police and ordinary civilians," said the deputy head of the Najaf police, General Amer Hamza al-Daami.


"Some were executed, others were mutilated and others were burned."


A pungent odour of death hung over the courtyard where the bodies lay, their clothes soiled and muddy, the AFP correspondent said.


An array of beer cans littered the ground and a national guardsman said: "Look with your own eyes -- they drank beer and then they killed."


The consumption of alcoholic drinks is strictly forbidden under Islam.


One witness, Rahri Hussein, said he was close to the mausoleum when "a young man asked everyone to come to the court building because he said he was tortured there and he was convinced that there were prisoners still being held in there.


"When we got down there we found only two people alive, the uncle of the police chief and a boy. The rest were just dead bodies."


Adel al-Jazairi, the uncle and driver of Najaf police chief Ghaleb al-Jazairi, was kidnapped by militiamen on August 8.

DanS is offline DanS
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  Old Post 27-08-2004 22:48 Visit DanS's homepage!
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It looks to me that although this is being spun as a peace deal with no winners, this in fact a rather resounding victory for the Iraqi government and the US. What's left of Sadr's militia is out of Najaf and the shrine is in Sistani's and police hands. The US is patrolling until peace returns.

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  Old Post 27-08-2004 22:52
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
It looks to me that although this is being spun as a peace deal with no winners, this in fact a rather resounding victory for the Iraqi government and the US.


HOw?

In the end, at least this is how the story will be spun, it was Sistani, NOT the US nor Allawi that was able to bring peace to Najaf, make sure the shrine was not damaged, and got Sadr to give. This diminishes Sadr slightly, builds up Sistani greatly, the US keeps its bad image and Allawi barely gains, if he gained AT ALL.

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  Old Post 27-08-2004 23:40 Visit DanS's homepage!
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quote:
In the end, at least this is how the story will be spun, it was Sistani, NOT the US nor Allawi that was able to bring peace to Najaf, make sure the shrine was not damaged, and got Sadr to give. This diminishes Sadr slightly, builds up Sistani greatly, the US keeps its bad image and Allawi barely gains, if he gained AT ALL.


The important stuff is positive for the government and the US, even though there might be some red faces in the government. This government's (police) role of protecting the shrine, Najaf, and Kufa was validated by the highest religious authorities. Sadr's role of protecting the shrine, Najaf, and Kufa was discredited. This is several months after Sadr's role of protecting Karbala was likewise discredited.

This round began 3 weeks ago with an attack by Sadr on a police station in Najaf after the Marines started patrolling some new areas. Sadr held the Imam Ali mosque. 3 weeks later, the police are in control of the Imam Ali shrine, not Sadr.

To me, this seems like symbolicly valuable "territory" that the government gained. A big success. If Sadr continues acting up, we can finish him off in a less sensitive area of the country.

Also, there's the possibility that the shrine treasures will be audited by Sistani and Sadr will be blamed for stealing some of them. This would be bad news for Sadr.

Last edited by DanS on 27-08-2004 at 23:46

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  Old Post 27-08-2004 23:53
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quote:
To me, this seems like symbolicly valuable "territory" that the government gained. A big success. If Sadr continues acting up, we can finish him off in a less sensitive area of the country.


But Sadr did not turn the shrines over to the government- he handed it over to Sistani. It was not Allawi, but Sistani that ends the issue- it is the deal reached by Sistani that holds, not the deal made by Allawi...over and over- Sistani leave the country- a mess develops, he returns, the mess ends (sort of).

If you are a religious Shiite, who do you think is the more powerful? Allwai, whos power comes form the US Marines (and even then after 2 weeks had not yet ended the deal) or Sistani (who 3 days after coming back gets control of the shrine?)? Add to that that in the last few days there have been reports (true or false) that Allawi's police fired on Sistani supporters.

All in all, a homerun for Sistani.

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  Old Post 27-08-2004 23:59
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Good for Sistani, agreed. Simply "not terrible" for us. I'll take that.

-Arrian

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  Old Post 28-08-2004 00:04
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Anything that is not a plus for the US is negative, cause the longer we are there, the worse we are. In short, we are always losing points with time- any event in which we don't gain points is essentially a wash for us.

I mean: Sadr is still free, his fighters in Najaf leave armed, he still has his base in Sadr City- people streaming to Najaf see a city devastated by US firepower and get to blame not only the US but Allawi as well- I mean, the only "good" is that Sadr is much weaker (if no out), but Allawi is diminished as well, and he is our guy in Iraq, cause we are not turning the show over to Sistani.

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quote:
But Sadr did not turn the shrines over to the government- he handed it over to Sistani.


It doesn't matter. The police are now the ones patrolling the shrine. They are the only ones who can legitimately carry arms in the city. Their legitimacy is secured. Sadr is challenging the government's legitimacy, so he lost this battle. It's true that the city is battered, but the claims for damage will be paid, which reinforces the government's legitimacy.

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  Old Post 28-08-2004 00:22
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And who made that demand? Sistani, not Allawi, who happens to be the head of the government- so goodie, the government has authority! as long as Sistani approves.

On the other hand, the very men who are in the government look like a bunch of indecisive men without power in Iraq save for the backing of the US Army- that is the problem- Sistani showed he has real authority in IRaq without anyone elses aide- Allawi can only demand with the help of the US military.

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  Old Post 28-08-2004 00:34
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well, sistani was calling for Sadr to leave the shrine earlier. They only left when two things happened - US and Iraqi troops finished clearing out the old city and approached the shrine AND Sistani organized his visit. So an Iraqi can look at either as the driver, or both. Or even suspect, as i do, that the two actions were coordinated, and that the Sistani visit was to allow Sadr to save face.

Certainly the result is that the city goes to Iraqi forces - it seems that Sistanis view of who rightfully should be securing Najaf is one that is favorable to the Allawi govt, even if he has his own political agenda.

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GePap: It's a religious site. How can you begrudge the proper religious authorities a predominate say over what happens at the site?

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  Old Post 28-08-2004 00:53
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
well, sistani was calling for Sadr to leave the shrine earlier. They only left when two things happened - US and Iraqi troops finished clearing out the old city and approached the shrine AND Sistani organized his visit. So an Iraqi can look at either as the driver, or both. Or even suspect, as i do, that the two actions were coordinated, and that the Sistani visit was to allow Sadr to save face.


Which might be to Sistani's interests, but how is that to Allawi's interests? Also, given the violence of yesterday and the fact Sadr's men walked away armed, I fail to see this is anywhere near a rousing success for the Government.

quote:

Certainly the result is that the city goes to Iraqi forces - it seems that Sistanis view of who rightfully should be securing Najaf is one that is favorable to the Allawi govt, even if he has his own political agenda.


I doubt this is a nod to Allawi as opposed to a nod to the idea that the political process must be allowed to continue free of violence. That is not a nod to Allawi and his admin., but a nod to the system and the rules.

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  Old Post 28-08-2004 00:55
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
GePap: It's a religious site. How can you begrudge the proper religious authorities a predominate say over what happens at the site?


Well, in theory the temporal powers should have the final say at all times in terms of violent uprisings, not religious centers.

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  Old Post 28-08-2004 00:57
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[QUOTE] Originally posted by GePap


quote:
Which might be to Sistani's interests, but how is that to Allawi's interests? Also, given the violence of yesterday and the fact Sadr's men walked away armed, I fail to see this is anywhere near a rousing success for the Government.


Not rousing no. But at least several hundred of Sadrs men didnt walk away at all. And at least a few were caught smuggling weapons out and were arrested, along with some Sadr lieutenants. And most reports indicate many did turn in their weapons.

as for those who kept their weapons, next place they turn up they wont have the shrine for protection.

quote:
I doubt this is a nod to Allawi as opposed to a nod to the idea that the political process must be allowed to continue free of violence. That is not a nod to Allawi and his admin., but a nod to the system and the rules.


Well there are still some of us who think Allawi is on the side of the system and the rules. Certainly what Iraqis want from Allawi is for the system and the rules to be enforced. I think working with Sistani is one alternative way of doing that - I dont think they expect him to rely on force alone, though some rightwingers here do.

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  Old Post 28-08-2004 01:03
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark

Not rousing no. But at least several hundred of Sadrs men didnt walk away at all. And at least a few were caught smuggling weapons out and were arrested, along with some Sadr lieutenants. And most reports indicate many did turn in their weapons.

as for those who kept their weapons, next place they turn up they wont have the shrine for protection.


The men Sadr can replace relatively fast- like there is a shortage in Iraq of unemployed, disaffected young men who know the basics of holding an AK-47.

Hopefully he does not try anything in Sadr City, becuase there things would be very, very ugly.

quote:

Well there are still some of us who think Allawi is on the side of the system and the rules. Certainly what Iraqis want from Allawi is for the system and the rules to be enforced. I think working with Sistani is one alternative way of doing that - I dont think they expect him to rely on force alone, though some rightwingers here do.


That's not the point. Sistani believes that working through a suystem of rules, the Shiia will come to dominate Iraq, and fears armed Shiia resistance would simply lead to the US setting up another Sunni dictator to keep them in line. That is why he has little patience for someone like Sadr. That said, I doubt Sistani's and Allawi's vision of Iraqs future is the same- this is a question of whom wins the coming elections, and what factions come ahead. I think this whole episode weakens the political support for Allwai and his faction- is that a good thing? maybe, maybe not. I do know the US does not seem to know which faction it thinks best.

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  Old Post 28-08-2004 01:23
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[QUOTE] Originally posted by GePap

quote:
The men Sadr can replace relatively fast- like there is a shortage in Iraq of unemployed, disaffected young men who know the basics of holding an AK-47.



Im not sure, there were apparently quite alot of youngsters bearing arms at the shrine. And if this is more a win for Sistani than Allawi, its still a loss for Sadr, who had defied Sistani and then gave in to him (we will defend this shrine to the last drop of our blood -er, well, no) That MAY have an impact on recruitment.


quote:
That's not the point. Sistani believes that working through a suystem of rules, the Shiia will come to dominate Iraq, and fears armed Shiia resistance would simply lead to the US setting up another Sunni dictator to keep them in line. That is why he has little patience for someone like Sadr. That said, I doubt Sistani's and Allawi's vision of Iraqs future is the same- this is a question of whom wins the coming elections, and what factions come ahead. I think this whole episode weakens the political support for Allwai and his faction- is that a good thing? maybe, maybe not. I do know the US does not seem to know which faction it thinks best.


I would hope that we dont have our policy staked on one side or another winning the elections. I hope we are realistic enough to realize that we cant control that. BTW, Sistani wont be on the ballot in any future Iraqi election - the vehicles for the outcome you claim he wants would have to be SCIRI and Dawa, yet they played NO role in the outcome of Najaf.

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  Old Post 28-08-2004 01:31
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AP

"If the agreement brokered Thursday by al-Sistani holds, Allawi could be the biggest winner.


The government not only gains sovereignty over Najaf, it stands to receive a boost in legitimacy among Iraqi Shiites for working with al-Sistani, the most senior Shiite cleric in Iraq and one of the most respected people in the country.


It was a shrewd move by Allawi, who introduced the idea that al-Sistani and the Iraqi government were working toward a common objective, said a Bush administration official in Washington. It shows that al-Sistani recognizes Allawi's authority, and will lend his authority and prestige to the government, the official added, speaking on condition of anonymity.


But the resolution also points to the power of al-Sistani, who — even ailing after heart treatment in London — could resolve a crisis that government negotiators and troops could not.


The outcome for the U.S. military was less impressive. But it's hard to see how the Americans could have ended the Najaf standoff on a better note.


The military contorted itself to neutralize al-Sadr without killing him and creating a beloved martyr or desecrating the Imam Ali Shrine — where the militants had taken refuge — and enraging Iraq's Shiite majority. "

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  Old Post 28-08-2004 01:41
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quote:
"If the agreement brokered Thursday by al-Sistani holds, Allawi could be the biggest winner.


The government not only gains sovereignty over Najaf, it stands to receive a boost in legitimacy among Iraqi Shiites for working with al-Sistani, the most senior Shiite cleric in Iraq and one of the most respected people in the country.


It was a shrewd move by Allawi, who introduced the idea that al-Sistani and the Iraqi government were working toward a common objective, said a Bush administration official in Washington. It shows that al-Sistani recognizes Allawi's authority, and will lend his authority and prestige to the government, the official added, speaking on condition of anonymity.

 
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