27-08-2004 10:30									#1
	Spy planted with GS Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

We have successfully planted a spy with GS (for 132g), but failed to plant a spy with GoW (losing 120g in the process).

GS forces:

3 settlers
35 workers
1 explorer
2 knights
20 riflemen
57 infantry
34 tanks
14 artillery
2 galleys
12 galleons
10 transports
2 carriers
3 submarines
15 destroyers
11 medieval infantry

Gotta run - back in about 5 hours.

	27-08-2004 12:09									#2
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In comparison with our own forces, as of last turn (to be updated with latest figures):

code:


GS
Lego
Medieval Infantries
11
0
Horsemen/Knights
2(K)
8(H)
Cavalries
0
51
Tanks
34
0
Riflemen
20
26
Infantries
57
43
Cannons
0
2
Artileries
14
42
Galleys/Caravels
2
3
Galleons
12
5
Transports
10
7
Carriers
2
0
Submarines
3
1
Ironclads
0
16
Destroyers
15
3
Battleships
0
2
Fighters
0
0
Bombers
0
0

Well, this is certainly an offensive, not a defensive force. 34 tanks and only 14 arties ... (btw, how the hell did they build 34 tanks already ?!)

Assuming that they will wait a few more turns (4-8) they will be able to land with 40 tanks and 40 infantries, which won't be ... hmmm... very amusing.

They also have 3 settlers, and if those are not combat settlers, then call me a warchicken

Oh, and 2 carriers already! Maybe they will wait to build a few bombers before attacking. This is the only information that leads me to believe that we are the target. Why would they need carriers to attack ND?

Last edited by Tiberius on 29-08-2004 at 17:14

	27-08-2004 14:49									#3
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Agreed on pretty much all what Tibi says. This is an attack force, not a defense force. And I'm 99.9% sure we are the target - if ND was the target, GS would have already attacked (remember ND is weak vs. us and we are weak vs. GS - means GS is more than 50% stronger than ND... ND would fall like flies against this monster army).

The bad news is the number of tanks and infantries - that's a helluva lot of them (remember my analysis about the possible number of GS tanks landing on Legos some time ago? I hate to be right on this...).

The good news is that I can see no airforce and no marines yet. Pulling an attack without them would be very difficult, so I assume GS will wait few more turns before sailing out. 8 turns would be golden, but I would hope for mo more than 4-5.

Seems we could have a BB superiority - GS probably have no suitable BB production centers (or are using them to build tanks instead). OTOH, we are far behind in DDs...

Looking at the situation, I guess we better upgrade all we have... we can't afford to have a single rifleman or cannon while they could be infantries or artillery.

Good news from Vox - Flight now in 4t only (one more turn faster). This means we will most probably have at least some feeble airforce when GS lands.

I need to spend some time with my business now... but I hope I will be able to play the turn before going to bed, around 10-12pm GMT.

	27-08-2004 15:00									#4
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quote: Originally posted by vondrack The good news is that I can see no airforce and no marines yet. Pulling an attack without them would be very difficult, so I assume GS will wait few more turns before sailing out.

This is what I was thinking about as well. This is VERY good news, unless GS builds 10 marines in the next 5 turns. So, if they come after us in the next 4-5 turns, without marines, we can build a seawall and they won't be able to land!!! I'd doubt that they won't build marines, but who knows? They could make the mistake to be confident about the landing; after all, who builds a seawall in the modern era?? This could be a mistake we could use, hopefully (though I wouldn't bet on it).

This spy is worth 10 times his weight in gold !

PS I agree to upgrade as much as possible this turn.

	27-08-2004 15:14									#5
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I think we should seriously focus on our navy- If they can't land their tropps then we can't take any major damage what so ever. perhaps we should start cranking out submarmines and battle ships- how long does it take to produce them?

	27-08-2004 15:16									#6
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while I agree, the problem is that we won't be able to build enough navy to prevent this landing.
Besides, we would need a sizeble bombers army to help the navy, and we don't have those either.

	27-08-2004 15:24									#7
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

So can I scream around shouting 'ARRGHH!!!!! We are all dooomed the end is nigh!!!!!!!'? - seems quite appropiate

	27-08-2004 15:30									#8
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Are we going to upgrade the horses as well?

	27-08-2004 16:25									#9
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I wouldn't upgrade the horses - just cannons and rifles. I am not that sure spending 800 gold on getting 8 more almost obsolete cavalries is what we urgently need to do now... The GS invasion force is formidable, but dare I say we would be able to face it with decent odds ATM. We will need arty and infantry to wear them down. 51 cavalries should be enough to pick their exhausted units.

rendelnep - run around and scream as much as you like, just do not take it outside of this forum. We don't want GS to know we have a spy with them (pity we failed to plant a spy with GoW... they may tell GS).

We are currently building 3t BBs in two cities - Jackson and Kloreepville. That's 2 new BBs every 3t. Sounds like we could have 5+ when the time comes. A new sub every 3t from Horsefish. A new DD every 2t from Zargonia. A new transport every 2t from Panama. Everything else is on arty and infantry.

	27-08-2004 19:49									#10
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

I suspect that GoW and GS are working together. In which case, GoW may have the marines and the bombers...just a guess.

I can't imagine GS launching an invasion force without marines; that makes no sense. They could manage without bombers, though.

I don't think GoW will just sit back and watch the war. They will have a hand in it.

	27-08-2004 19:54									#11
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As for our current course of actions, I agree with what we are doing. This is the only course of action we have.

	27-08-2004 20:17									#12
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GS WILL build bombers, otherwise they wouldn't have 2 carriers already. However, they might attack earlier, and bring in the aviation in the 2nd wave.

It looks like we will have more battleships than GS. Unfortunately if they won't be in attack range when the GS's transports will come, then we still have to rely on our arties, infantries and cavalries, so lets build as many as possible.

	27-08-2004 22:01									#13
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by vondrack I wouldn't upgrade the horses - just cannons and rifles. I am not that sure spending 800 gold on getting 8 more almost obsolete cavalries is what we urgently need to do now... The GS invasion force is formidable, but dare I say we would be able to face it with decent odds ATM. We will need arty and infantry to wear them down. 51 cavalries should be enough to pick their exhausted units.

You're right. Besides, if we really need a few extra cavalries, we have lots of cities perfectly fitted for 2 turn cavalries. I think we could easily build something like 10 cavs in 2 turns, if we really need them (we lose too many in the battle).

Are we going to play the turn anytime soon?

	27-08-2004 22:07									#14
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I am going to finish my business chores only (about 1 more hour to go) and then move on to playing the turn. I will try to post here after I figure out the last minute changes (we will have to make some, because we were hit by 3 polluted tiles, some of them messing the build - e.g. in Jackson).

	27-08-2004 22:33									#15
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ok

	27-08-2004 23:21									#16
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Going to play the turn now.

	28-08-2004 00:39									#17
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quote: Originally posted by vondrack The bad news is the number of tanks and infantries - that's a helluva lot of them (remember my analysis about the possible number of GS tanks landing on Legos some time ago? I hate to be right on this...). The good news is that I can see no airforce and no marines yet. Pulling an attack without them would be very difficult, so I assume GS will wait few more turns before sailing out. 8 turns would be golden, but I would hope for mo more than 4-5.

The airforce can wait if they have enough sea bombardment units for the initial attack.

The marines they will have to wait for if they don't want to expose their stack on the first turn. The problem is, they've demonstrated they can produce the Tanks quite nicely; I'm sure they can churn out Marines once they get them.

quote: Originally posted by vondrack Seems we could have a BB superiority - GS probably have no suitable BB production centers (or are using them to build tanks instead). OTOH, we are far behind in DDs...

I'm doubtful we can match their navy quickly enough. We'd still need 15 BBs, backed by some ironclades, to take on 15 destroyers. In collateral damage-less Civ3, there is strength in numbers.

quote: Originally posted by vondrack Looking at the situation, I guess we better upgrade all we have... we can't afford to have a single rifleman or cannon while they could be infantries or artillery.

Agreed.

quote: Originally posted by vondrack Good news from Vox - Flight now in 4t only (one more turn faster). This means we will most probably have at least some feeble airforce when GS lands.

I'm not sure how much good fighters will do us, but the Bombers could come in handy.

quote: Originally posted by vondrack rendelnep - run around and scream as much as you like, just do not take it outside of this forum. We don't want GS to know we have a spy with them (pity we failed to plant a spy with GoW... they may tell GS).

Do you get notified in PBEM? None of my PBEMs have reached the Ind.

	28-08-2004 02:14									#18
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OK, here is a quick rundown of changes and additions for the turn plan (I have been figuring out changes so far, so it's only now I am going to play the turn - it's going to take at least an hour, so comment ASAP... I'll check before finalizing the turn):

- Jackson missed on arty due to pollution, switches to battleship (to be finished in 2t)
- Panama missed on transport due to pollution, switches to carrier (to be finished in 2t)
- Q.M. shortrushes to 60S (48g) and maxxes shields to shave a turn off the hospital build (we need it cranking our DDs ASAP)
- all cannons upgraded
- one galleon upgraded to transport (80g) to partially balance the cancelled transport build in Panama
- no rifles upgraded, 1100g left in bank
- +234gpt/841bpt at 60% science

More info:

- Flight still with GS & GoW only
- Amphibious Warfare not discovered yet (good!)
- our decline on the powergraph has stopped

	28-08-2004 02:40									#19
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Hmmm... it might be pointless, but it might be worth a shot talking to GoW, if they are even willing to. It's quite clear that GS is a military production monster, and helping them take us out is only going to doom GoW and ND. I'm positive we won't convince them to help us, but we might be able to convince them to not hinder us.

	28-08-2004 02:47									#20
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quote: Originally posted by ZargonX Hmmm... it might be pointless, but it might be worth a shot talking to GoW, if they are even willing to. It's quite clear that GS is a military production monster, and helping them take us out is only going to doom GoW and ND. I'm positive we won't convince them to help us, but we might be able to convince them to not hinder us.

GS would take a while to gain from this. But assuming they go it alone and are victorious, they could eventually make Legos productive, jumping their palace over to one part and having RP build a FP in another area.

I'm doubtful they'll agree to stay out of this until we've been hurt, though. We pretty much are the singly most powerful civ.

	28-08-2004 02:55									#21
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Sounds good, except for that carrier. We don't really need it right now. Maybe Commercial Docks instead? It'd bring some extra gold for us, and would be ready also in 2 turns.
Just an idea.

PS We would win as much as 10 commerce(gold+beakers)/turn right now, or 18 if we add 4 workers to Panama.

Last edited by Tiberius on 28-08-2004 at 03:07

	28-08-2004 03:03									#22
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Yep, I pretty much agree with Kloreep. GoW will help GS destroying us, at least in the beginning, until we will have been hurt enough.
They will probably gamble to help GS until a point when GS are not strong enough yet, and we are not strong enough anymore.

No, I think we shouldn't speak with them. This would only let them know that we know what is coming.

	28-08-2004 03:07									#23
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quote: Originally posted by Tiberius No, I think we shouldn't speak with them. This would only let them know that we know what is coming.

But would this not perhaps cause a rethink and buy us a few more turns?

	28-08-2004 03:08									#24
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no, they would attack earlier, to deny us those few turns of preparation.

It could be any of these scenarios, actually.

	28-08-2004 03:25									#25
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Their timetable is probably capable of being squished only so far. If they don't have Amphib warfare, then they aren't ready; period. If they land somewhere, we can pound them with arty and then send in the Cav.

However, it's possible they spend a little more time building up if we don't give a sign we know what's up. Though if GoW knows we're planting spies, they know we'll eventually see the military buildup regardless.

And yes, I actually do think time is on our side. Currently, our picket net is stretched thin. The more ships we get out there, the harder we make it for them to make feints all over the place simply by taking out a picet with a pair of destroyers.

	28-08-2004 03:32									#26
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I'm 100% sure they are not aware of our current military buildup effort, and I'd like to keep it this way for a while. Once we have enough military in place to stop them, then I'd let them know that we know.

If they will find out that we know their plans for quite some time and we will be average vs Gs, then they may hesitate. When they will hesitate, that's the moment when we can do something on the diplomatic level.

	28-08-2004 03:54									#27
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

Guys, what would you say if we stayed on low science for one more turn? We seem to need more fast pickets - and there are 5 galleons sitting in Crossing. Plus, I have found out I will be able to upgrade 20 cannons only (and no rifles at all).

I believe the intel from our spy says we WILL delay AT by 1 more turn anyway...

So?

	28-08-2004 04:01									#28
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

One more turn on 20% would mean 800 gold, which is the cost for upgrading all of our rifles plus the galleons, right? Then go for it.

Besides, who knows, maybe we will need some aggressive shortrushes for the near future.

Radek, what do you think about my idea with the Commercial Docks in Panama?

	28-08-2004 04:08									#29
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After consulting with Kloreep, I've changed the build to a battleship in 2t - needed some tweaking, but should be good. Commercial Docks are dandy, but a BB delivers a bigger punch...

	28-08-2004 04:13									#30
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I thought a BB can't be done in 2 turns in Panama. If yes, I agree of course (shortrush to Commercial Docks? ).