04-09-2004 04:33									#31
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This isn't even taking into account the entire bounce, since it was done during the convention.

That said, I think the convention bounce will be temporary, with Bush really only having a four or five point advantage over Kerry. Even that's well more than Kerry would have wanted at this stage. It's tough for him to win against an incumbent with this kind of advantage.

	04-09-2004 05:06									#32
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FWIW, American Research Group did a poll (the second one down) in the same timeframe as the Time and Zogby polls, also covering likely voters, getting Bush 48-47. With Nader added in, it becomes Bush 47, Kerry 47, Nader 3. Those three polls (Time, Zogby, ARG) are the only post-convention polls I'm aware of at this writing.

From that same site, some other data from that same Zogby poll:

quote: Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be reelected as president of the United States, or is it time for someone new? Deserves Reelection- 46% Someone New- 48%

Also from pollingreport.com, a chart with Bush/Kerry/Nader data from the last poll from each major polling outfit. Enjoy. No Libertarians were harmed in the making of this graphic.

	04-09-2004 05:12									#33
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I still think Bush will win. This election has nothing to do with rationality, or policy. It is a thoroughly postmodern election in which sense and meaning are fluid and opinions are consistent if you say so loudly enough.

Makes North Korea look reasonable.

	04-09-2004 08:28									#34
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Bush is going to win and this place will be abso-****ing-lutely hilarious when he does. I can hardly wait...

	04-09-2004 08:32									#35
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You really want to screw America that badly just to laugh at your fellow Polytubbies?

	04-09-2004 08:34									#36
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I just checked and there aint no fat lady singing yet.

	04-09-2004 08:39									#37
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara You really want to screw America that badly just to laugh at your fellow Polytubbies?

Yes.

	04-09-2004 08:42									#38
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quote: I just checked and there aint no fat lady singing yet.

Fat ladies.

Hey Drake, remember that some of us don't mind if Bush wins.

	04-09-2004 08:47									#39
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I'm well aware of your stance, Ag, and I curse you for being no fun at all. Why can't you have an aneurysm on Election Day like the rest of the lefties?

Won't you do it for me?

	04-09-2004 09:03									#40
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Hell, if you want everyone to have aneurysms, just throw the election to Nader.

	04-09-2004 09:10									#41
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God, that would be awesome.

	04-09-2004 09:13									#42
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Don't lie...you'd HATE Ralph Nader as President

	04-09-2004 09:39									#43
	Tired of ads?

I have to say, I am extremely impressed by this. I had figured that there was such incredible polarized neither candidate would ever build up a double digit lead. Give credit to Team Bush; after defeating an incumbent VP after 8 years of Peace and prosperity, they seem to have a good shot now of re-electing a President who started a war and lost over a million jobs.

The combination of Swift Vets for Truth and the GOP convention in the month of August really hit Kerry hard, and Team Kerry has been thrown seriously off balance. The Kerry campaign had hoped that the race would simply be a referendum on Bush, and all they needed was to present a credible alternative. It now seems the Bush campaign has succeeded in turning this from a referendum on the President to a real person v. person comparison. The Bush campaign also felt the Gore campaign in 2000 made it's biggest mistake when it allowed Bush to define himself when introducing himself to the American people. The Bush campaign with it's hard, early, offensive has prevented Kerry from doing that and has soured the campaign early.

I expect Team Kerry, and John Kerry himself, must be fuming over these results and these relentless attacks. Expect them to hit back hard with negative advertisements. The gloves are off, and this can be expected to be the most nasty, most brutal, most partisan, most negative campaign in history. That will favor Bush as well, as it may depress turnout-- with the exception of Republicans, who studies have shown respond the most favorably to attack ads and get energized the most.

But whoever wins, it seems quite clear we will be polarized and devided like never before, and whoever wins will preside over a country half of whom hates them, and maybe their supporters as well. Nasty times seem ahead of us.

	04-09-2004 10:25									#44
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I give them credit too. They come up with conceivable lies, ones which, I might add, aren't often enough questioned by the supposed "left-wing" media.

The Bush Team has done a great amount of work over the past 4+ years. Not only is it unpatriotic to come out against the president or to question what he says, but its almost impossible to get regular citizens to think twice when he talks.

	04-09-2004 10:29									#45
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Kerry could dispell these "lies" pretty easily if he would just open his records.

	04-09-2004 11:03									#46
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Told ya that convention and Bush's speech did Kerry in. Maybe if the left gave up it's goal of ~socialism and joined economically right wing folks they'd win the White House and Congress. But if that happened you'd have to lighten up a bit spending other people's money and that's a tough habit to break.

	04-09-2004 11:08									#47
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I wonder why people are harping on the one poll showing the 11 point lead and ignoring the two others which show Bush leads of 2 points and 1 point. Kind of like if they ignore it, it'll go away .

	04-09-2004 11:16									#48
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Is the Gallup poll out, yet? That's the only one I take seriously.

	04-09-2004 11:20									#49
	Tired of ads?

Dumb people look at Bush and say "he's one of us".

Unfortunately there are far more dumb people in the world than smart ones.

And Kerry doesn't impress smart people much either.

	04-09-2004 11:22									#50
	Suffering from ads?

^^^Not when he uses a dozen words to describe something when six will do.

	04-09-2004 11:37									#51
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Just looking at history, Nixon won a huge landslide against the very liberal McGovern. Reagan won big against Carter and bigger against his liberal VP, Mondale. Bush I lost to Clinton, but that was because Perot siphoned Bush's vote. Bush II beat Gore, but that was because Nader siphoned Gore's vote.

But now we have another liberal running who knows that being identified as a liberal is a loser and who is trying to remake himself into a conservative. But the Swiftboat ads and the Republican convention stripped Kerry of any right to claim himself to be a conservative.

At this point, I think we may be facing a repeat of Nixon's and Reagan's re-election landslides. America does not elect liberals -- at least, knowingly.

	04-09-2004 11:40									#52
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Landslide? Whatever! Good grief, man. That's one of the most outlandish claims I've heard in a helluva long time. Whether you like it or not, this damn election is going to come down to the 5 or 10 percent of the people who are moderates and are undecided. And trust me, that, added in with the voters who have also taken sides, does *not* add up to a landslide.

Gatekeeper

	04-09-2004 11:46									#53
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Just looking at history, Nixon won a huge landslide against the very liberal McGovern. Reagan won big against Carter and bigger against his liberal VP, Mondale. Bush I lost to Clinton, but that was because Perot siphoned Bush's vote. Bush II beat Gore, but that was because Nader siphoned Gore's vote. But now we have another liberal running who knows that being identified as a liberal is a loser and who is trying to remake himself into a conservative. But the Swiftboat ads and the Republican convention stripped Kerry of any right to claim himself to be a conservative. At this point, I think we may be facing a repeat of Nixon's and Reagan's re-election landslides. America does not elect liberals -- at least, knowingly.

Are you completely insane? Are you completely unaware of what's going on in the world? Or are you just so delusional that you no longer have any grip on reality? Have your eyes failed you, or have you failed your eyes?

Reagan won 49 states in his re-election bid. Bush would be lucky to win 39, and I wouldn't be surprised if he won by a paper-thin EC margin of less than 20 votes. To win as many states as Reagan did, he'll have to pick up states like Connecticut, California, Maryland, Delaware, and New York. And Bush is no Ronald Reagan.

	04-09-2004 11:59									#54
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quote: The latest Zogby Poll show that the Presidential race has swung from Kerry up seven (50-43) in mid-August to Bush up two (46-44) currently. That is a nine point swing total, a substantial "bounce." I recall after the Kerry convention failed to impress many pundits on the left were saying that it was just the nature of the electorate this time, that everyone had made up their minds so of course there would be no change, and Bush would not get a bounce either. Looks like that is not going to be the case. Other polls may verify this. Note that according to Gallup the last time a challenger who went first and got no bounce was followed by an incumbent who went second and got a bounce was in 1972, when Nixon took 49 states. All this may have nothing to do at all with the personnell changes in the Kerry camp, certainly that's their story.

http://www.nationalreview.com/theco...hive.asp#039110

	04-09-2004 12:00									#55
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The Nedaverse only receives Fox News.

	04-09-2004 12:03									#56
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Even that can't quite explain it.

BTW, this poll seems a little far from what the other polls are reporting, so I wouldn't put too much faith in it.

	04-09-2004 13:20									#57
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quote: Dumb people look at Bush and say "he's one of us". Unfortunately there are far more dumb people in the world than smart ones. And Kerry doesn't impress smart people much either.

No, those "dumb" people look at Kerry and say, "He's not one of us".

	04-09-2004 13:24									#58
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Kerry's dumb, too. That's why he won't release his grades and SAT scores. We had both Gore and Bush's grades and test scores over a year before the election last time around.

	04-09-2004 13:27									#59
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if he got less than 1400. BTW, what did Bush get?

	04-09-2004 13:31									#60
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Bush got a 1206, 566 Verbal, 640 Math.

Gore got a 1355, 625 Verbal, 730 Math.

Kerry got... ?

http://www.insidepolitics.org/heard/heard32300.html