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Vlad Antlerkov
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Do you have Matt Stairs in your house?
Mar 1999
time: 23:36
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Rasmussen tracking poll has the race as Bush 49, Kerry 45. Not ARG/Zogby territory, not Time/Newsweek territory either.
Edit: Meta-analysis of the various state polls, for those of you into this sort of thing.
Last edited by Vlad Antlerkov on 05-09-2004 at 00:14
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The Mad Monk
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of Ice Cream
Mar 2000
time: 23:36
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From the Zogby site:
quote:
Released: September 03, 2004
John Zogby, the first to predict “The race is Kerry’s to lose,” tells Wall $treet Week with FORTUNE viewers that investors are moving in Bush”s direction to Kerry’s peril.
Zogby identifies "make or break" battleground constituencies...
As Republican delegates say goodbye to the glitter and fanfare of Madison Square Garden, self-identified investor voters say they now favor President Bush over John Kerry by an eleven point spread (49% vs. 38%) according to a Zogby/Wall $treet Week with FORTUNE poll conducted on August 30th through September 2nd.
In tonight’s post RNC Convention episode of PBS’s Wall $treet Week with FORTUNE, Zogby will be interviewed by Karen Gibbs, W$WwF co-anchor, where he will announce that President Bush now has the advantage of a double-digit lead among self-identified Investor Class voters. Of those voters who identify themselves as owning stock, 54% say they would vote for Bush compared to 34% for Kerry’s 20 point difference.
In analyzing the poll data, Zogby will probe the “make or break” role of two key groups, the Investor Class, and the Undecideds, both of whom are increasing in numbers and potential impact as Campaign 2004 speeds toward election day.
Both the Investor Class and the Undecideds may prove to be battleground constituencies for Kerry. The poll indicated that Kerry’s support fell as the number of undecided voters rose, suggesting that by [August 30th] some of the Senators supporters may have lost confidence in him and joined the ranks of the undecided.
Zogby International conducted interviews of 1,001 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. Of these likely voters, 307 described themselves as “members of the investor class” All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from August 30th through September 2nd. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest percent and might not total 100.
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http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=858
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Drake Tungsten
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Knee deep in alien womyn...
Oct 2001
time: 14:36
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The Gallup poll is finally out. Bush leads by 7 points...
quote:
Bush leads Kerry by 7 points
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON EPresident Bush widened his lead over John Kerry after a combative Republican National Convention deepened questions about the Democratic candidate's leadership, especially on terrorism. (Related link: Poll results)
As the campaign enters its last eight weeks, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday shows Bush at 52%, Kerry at 45% and independent candidate Ralph Nader at 1% among likely voters. Before the convention, Bush led Kerry by 2 percentage points.
Among registered voters, Bush was at 48%, Kerry at 46% and Nader at 4%.
Bush's lead remains within the survey's error margin. By historical standards, the race remains too close to call.
But the New York convention has reshaped views of the political landscape and the candidates in ways helpful to the GOP. Views of whether Bush has the personality and leadership qualities to be president improved by 6 points; those of Kerry declined by 14 points.
And the importance of terrorism Ethe major issue on which Bush has an advantage Esurged. Voters now say terrorism is as important as the economy, and more important than the war in Iraq, in determining their vote. The president is preferred by 27 points over his challenger in handling terrorism, up from a 10-point edge last month. By 2-to-1, those surveyed say the chances of a terrorist attack against the USA would be less if Bush rather than Kerry were elected.
Bush strategist Matthew Dowd predicts the race will tighten again but says Bush is further ahead than the campaign expected. With the Democratic convention over, "John Kerry has lost any ability to have any one-way conversation" with voters, he says.
Mark Mellman, Kerry's pollster, says Kerry is "making progress every single day" in closing the gap with Bush. "The reality is that this was a convention filled with ugly and inaccurate speeches, and no doubt as those speeches are being heard they make some impression," he says. "Equally there's no doubt they'll fade pretty quickly."
The lessons of presidential races since World War II indicate either candidate could prevail in November.
Since World War II, three contests have been within the margin of error among registered voters at Labor Day. In those races, the leading candidate won in 1980; the trailing candidate won in 1960 and 2000.
Still, Bush received a modest bounce from his party's convention, while Kerry's standing sagged in the USA TODAY poll after the Democratic convention. The president is driving both sides of the ballot: eight of 10 of his supporters say they are voting for Bush; half of Kerry voters say they are voting against Bush. |
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politi...9-06-poll_x.htm
Let the desperate whining and infighting in the Democratic Party continue!
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Edan
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quote:
Time reports that Republicans will vote for Bush by an 89% to 9% margin; Democrats for Kerry by an 80% to 9% margin; and, unaffiliated voters for Bush 43% to 39%.
Four years ago, 35% of voters were Republicans, 39% were Democrats, and the rest were unaffiliated. If you apply those percentages to the Time internals, you find Bush up by about 3 percentage points. If you do the same with the Newsweek internal numbers, you find Bush with a six point lead. Those results are very close to the Rasmussen Reports data (excluding the Saturday sample).
All of this leads me to conclude that the President is currently ahead by 4 or 5 percentage points. |
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Pol...%20Sept%206.htm
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Apolyton Time is 00:36. |
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04-09-2004 23:30
or 
. That's fairly scary. 
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