12-09-2004 04:33									#121
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Not me, Jamaica. They got hit, but they didn't take the full brunt of the storm. As much as I don't like being hit by hurricanes, we can stand it a lot better 3rd world countries, and we can recover more quickly.

Still 11 people died in jamaica But thank God it wasn't as bad as Gilbert. I hope Cuba isn't suffering to(o?) badly.

	12-09-2004 04:37									#122
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quote: Originally posted by Hueij Still 11 people died in jamaica But thank God it wasn't as bad as Gilbert. I hope Cuba isn't suffering to(o?) badly.

Yeah but that's just in Jamaica..

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040911/D851NDRG0.html

Ivan already has killed 50 people across the Caribbean this week, including 34 in Grenada.

	12-09-2004 04:41									#123
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Hueij: It's too. "Too" is an adjective and "to" is a preposition

Anyway;

quote: THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GRADUAL CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE HURRICANE MOVING ON A TRACK NOT AS CLOSE TO SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE THIS MAY BE GOOD NEWS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...IT IS NOT SO FOR OTHER REGIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN FORCING THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...DELAYING THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD TURN. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWARD TURN IS STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK INCREASES THE HURRICANE RISK FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION AND DECREASES IT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTING GRADUALLY WESTWARD. AS WAS THOUGHT POSSIBLE...IVAN HAS REGAINED CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 161 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 914 MB. THE DROP MEASURED 918 MB BUT IT HAD 29 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 145 KNOTS. THERE ARE NO SKILLS IN PREDICTING CHANGES IN INTENSITY WITH SUCH EXTREMELY INTENSE HURRICANES...SO IVAN IS KEPT AT 145 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL IN CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED. NEVERTHERLESS... IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UNITES STATES AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

	12-09-2004 04:45									#124
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I know some people in Ja, but I can't get trough to them yet, not on the net nor on the phone I hope they are okay.

	12-09-2004 04:48									#125
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quote: Originally posted by Kalius Hueij: It's too. "Too" is an adjective and "to" is a preposition

I know what "preposition" means, but what is an "adjective:?

	12-09-2004 04:53									#126
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My apologies, it's an adverb. Got the two mixed for a second.

An adjective is, loosely, a describing word, used with a noun (e.g. "yellow car", or "the gruesome story"

	12-09-2004 04:59									#127
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quote: Originally posted by Kalius My apologies, it's an adverb. Got the two mixed for a second. An adjective is, loosely, a describing word, used with a noun (e.g. "yellow car", or "the gruesome story"

Ah thanks, but now I have a new question But I started a new thread on this, I don't want to jack this one.

	12-09-2004 13:28									#128
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Not me, Jamaica. They got hit, but they didn't take the full brunt of the storm. As much as I don't like being hit by hurricanes, we can stand it a lot better 3rd world countries, and we can recover more quickly.

doh

	12-09-2004 22:34									#129
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Sure as hell didn't miss Grand Cayman.

The windchart I posted (post 49) shows a 165 arrow right over the island --

	13-09-2004 03:08									#130
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Has anyone heard from GCaymen? Or are they now : Grand Caymen Sandbar and Grille?

	13-09-2004 03:20									#131
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quote: Originally posted by smacksim Has anyone heard from GCaymen? Or are they now : Grand Caymen Sandbar and Grille?

ya know when you track these things they so often do something different

Like the jogs they have been showing with Ivan

No one had predicted them

Lets hope no other surprises are in store

Gramps

	13-09-2004 03:56									#132
	These Cape Verde storms are bad bad bad... Suffering from ads?

I have a bad feeling about this storm. A high pressure system keeps pushing it west, and if that continues, it could pass through the middle of the Gulf and strike New Orleans.

New Orleans has a 4-5 foot hurricane wall (if you've been there, you've seen it just inside the levee). But a storm like Ivan would easily swamp the wall.

	13-09-2004 05:08									#133
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I have this feeling it's gonna hit Texas.

	13-09-2004 05:13									#134
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Euargh! Go back! Into the ocean, foul beast! Stop spinning west!

	13-09-2004 07:41									#135
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Spin West! Spin West!

	13-09-2004 07:54									#136
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Into New Orleans?

	13-09-2004 20:09									#137
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Away from me! I've already had two this season.

	13-09-2004 21:00									#138
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I find it pretty ironic that millions of communists are running and hiding from something called "Ivan".

	13-09-2004 21:07									#139
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quote: millions of communists are running and hiding from something called "Ivan".

what millions?

	13-09-2004 21:08									#140
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Cuba

	13-09-2004 21:32									#141
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quote: I have this feeling it's gonna hit Texas.

	13-09-2004 21:58									#142
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I feel bad for anyone in the path of that thing. It keeps waffling between Cat 4 and 5, which means it's nastier than anything I've seen (Glory, 1985, IIRC, was a 2 when it finally hit Connecticut).

It's amazing to me how much better off a country like the U.S. is vis-a-vis a 3rd world country when hit by one of these. A neighbor of mine who works as a building instructor just got back from Equador. He and several others in that profession went down there (on the U.S. government's tab, I believe) to help instruct the Equadorians on some basics in building inspection, since they are trying to put together some real earthquake building codes. They're effectively starting from scratch on that, and need all the help they can get.

This is why big natural disasters kill hundreds or thousands in poor countries, and in rich ones it's a handfull.

-Arrian

	13-09-2004 22:02									#143
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Even having building codes doesn't necessarily mean anything. Remember the Istabul earthquake a few years ago? All those buildings that fell were supposed to be code, but weren't. But of course, regulations are bad for business, and those killed in the falling buildings have the right to sue.

	13-09-2004 22:04									#144
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I think the most striking case was the last big earthquake in Taiwan. Some buildings separated from their foundations and literally fell over. This revealed lots of empty oil drums embedded into the foundation instead of concrete reinforced with rebar.

	13-09-2004 22:12									#145
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara I have this feeling it's gonna hit Texas.

I have the same eerie feeling......

ACK!

	13-09-2004 22:13									#146
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Even having building codes doesn't necessarily mean anything. Remember the Istabul earthquake a few years ago? All those buildings that fell were supposed to be code, but weren't. But of course, regulations are bad for business, and those killed in the falling buildings have the right to sue.

Which was the whole point of sending these guys down to Equador. The codes are there, but the enforcement (proper inspection) isn't. They went down to teach the inspectors how to do their jobs.

-Arrian

	13-09-2004 22:17									#148
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In Taiwan, the inspectors were bribed.

	13-09-2004 22:20									#149
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Yeah, and that's something the Taiwanese need to deal with. Corruption we can't do much (or anything) about. But we can help in other ways (aid money, expertise).

And we do, although I imagine it's a fairly small contribution.

-Arrian

	13-09-2004 22:28									#150
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nm