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Q Cubed
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t3h y3ll0w p3ril
Apr 1999
time: 23:23
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obama's speaking doesn't turn moderates off so much as his policies. that said, i like obama.
then again, it's not like the Dear Leader says or does anything that brings moderates to him.
kerry is a douchebag, bush is a ****tard, and badarnik is a crook. last time we had a crook for president, a few good things happened: vietnam ended, epa was founded, scandals were revealed and proved that our democracy is strong.
i might just go and vote badarnik. he seems like the least of all evils, and with the electoral college, it's not like my vote will matter anyway--GA will go for bush, and IL for kerry.
for 2008? i don't know. mccain isn't half bad, nor is giuliani. i don't mind edwards too much, except now he seems like a dan quayle, i do like obama. i dislike frist and santorum, and i don't trust condi rice.
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Admiral
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of the peace and coexistance movement
Feb 2001
time: 00:23
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For all the talk that Bush is dominating the polls, and that Kerry has no chance, you are overlooking a couple of key factors. First, in a technical sense, the popular vote doesn't matter. And in the states, currently Kerry has 252 votes to Bush's 254. Florida and Nevada are tied. All Kerry would have to do would be to win Florida, and he'd be in the whitehouse. That would also allow Colorodo, currently in the Kerry camp but rather unlikely to vote for him, to swing to Bush. Also, if the ammendment there to divide the EC votes proportionally manages to pass, it will apply to this election, and Kerry would likely recieve 4 out of the 9, which, if Bush takes Florida but Kerry picks up Pennsylvania (which he is likely to, and where he is only behind by a couple of points) that also would put him into the whitehouse. Also, bear in mind that the tie in the EC, which would normally be resolved by the house, likely won't occur, as a WV elector for Bush has promised not to vote for him (based upon data from www.electoral-vote.com).
Also, Kerry went down in the national polls due really to two things: the swift boat ads and ensuing controversy, and the Bush rephrasing of the election solely in terms of safety for America. With all the material coming out now about Bush and lying about his national guard record (interesting piece by Paul Krugman in the NYTimes. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/10/o.../10krugman.html), that could start to have the same effect as swift boat, especially with the help of some attack ads (also, that biography coming out about him, I forget who by, could create some controversy). Also, with the Iraq conflict not looking any brighter, and a rash of new casualties, some swing voters could well start to doubt Bush's war-president image (let's face it, the "mission accomplished" stunt wasn't exactly the most strategically brilliant move).
Finally, Zogby, the offical pollster for the Wall Street Journal (to prevent criticism of being a mindless lefty) attacked the Newsweek and Rassutten polls that everyone seems to be basing their "Bush is ahead" gloating on, for polling to many Republicans. I forget Zogby's exact conclusion, but I think he had Bush ahead by about 3%.
The conclusion being, the race is still close. Kerry is not "dead in the water."
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Admiral
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of the peace and coexistance movement
Feb 2001
time: 00:23
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Virginia is apparently now a battleground state (which is nice. I always like to think that I can have some effect), and Kerry is now starting to campaign heavily there. The guy who runs the Electoral-Vote site himself admits that the projected votes regression lines is bogus until october, and in some states will be bogus until the election. I don't know where you can possibly argue that Wisconsin is leaning-Bush, as it have voted democratic since Reagan, and has been leaning democratic the entire summer. New Mexico, too, has been Kerry all summer, and also has a democratic voting history. Arkansas and NC will almost assuredly go for Bush, and if they don't, it will be because of a major major Bush scandal, leading to a Kerry landslide, which in my eyes would be rather unlikely.
However, I think that with the ream of material that Kerry has to attack Bush on, and with the fact that he is finally starting to take a stance on the war in Iraq, that Kerry can swing enough votes to win a slim victory. Also, despite Bush's claims that the economy is doing just nicely, the fact of the matter is that the economic situation of the country is in a rather bad way (and I refer again to the Krugman piece, http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/10/o.../10krugman.html), and that Pennsylvania and WV, where the economy is significant, could both easily vote for Kerry.
Finally, in defense of electoral-vote.com, there is really no partisan lean on the site. He takes every state poll, and averages state polls taken over the same time-period. While certain polls are bogus, like the one having a statistical tie in Ca, and Kerry ahead in Tennassee, taken as a whole, they present a fair picture of the political battleground.
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10-09-2004 21:25
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