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Berzerker
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topeka, kansas,USA
May 1999
time: 23:23
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Out of a country of 25 million, 15,000 is not much when gauging public opinion. Why do you think 15,000 constitutes more than a very small minority? In any war of liberation, and this qualifies, the first resistance (if any) comes from the elite who were in power. Obviously Saddam and his cronies were a minority, hence there fear of sharing or relinquishing power via democracy. The danger comes when the nationalists who wanted or needed help getting rid of Saddam start thinking their new government is an antagonistic puppet of the US. That's when we'll see nationalists who oppose each other ally to get rid of the occupier and that's when we are in trouble... The Kurds are on our side and most of the Shi'ites are either on our side or just waiting for the smoke to clear. Most of the trouble is coming from the Sunni triangle and Saddam's tribal associations. Actually, I'd expect far more than 15,000 given the population size if most Iraqis were really angry with us...
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Berzerker
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topeka, kansas,USA
May 1999
time: 23:23
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quote:
No. It's all of them, and they are ganging up because they hate the US more than each other. I saw a couple of ex-military academics state this as fact last week, and it has been in the press for some time. |
Sure, some people hate us more than they hate each other, but the numbers posted by chegitz show that the insurrectionists are relatively small in number.
quote:
No, not really. Where the Arab Nationalist insurrection is strongest, in places like Fallujah, the insurrection has beem divorced from Saddam's former government for a while. And the Sadrists (who could be considered Iraqi Nationalists) have absolutely nothing to do with the former government (besides being a target of their repression). |
And Sadr was reigned in by... Sistani...certainly a nationalist (most people are nationalists). The constant attacks are coming from the Sunnis who were in control under Saddam, not nationalists in the broad sense of the term. Their goal is not nationalism, it's avoiding vengeful opponents they tormented when Saddam was in power. If the Iraqis really opposed the US, the insurrectionists would cut across religious and tribal boundaries and they'd number in the hundreds of thousands or millions... I'm not saying that can't become the reality, but I believe most Iraqis want to give us the chance to help get them back on track.
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Ramo
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Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:23
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quote:
And Sadr was reigned in by... Sistani...certainly a nationalist (most people are nationalists). |
Actually Sadr (and the Sadrists) is much more of an (Iraqi) nationalist than Sistani. That's partially why they're so opposed to Sistani - he's of Iranian descent. Sistani has much more of an internationalist orientation.
quote:
The constant attacks are coming from the Sunnis who were in control under Saddam, not nationalists in the broad sense of the term. Their goal is not nationalism, it's avoiding vengeful opponents they tormented when Saddam was in power. If the Iraqis really opposed the US, the insurrectionists would cut across religious and tribal boundaries and they'd number in the hundreds of thousands or millions... I'm not saying that can't become the reality, but I believe most Iraqis want to give us the chance to help get them back on track. |
The Ba'athists are Arab Nationalists. Most Sunnis are also Arab Nationalists. And as I said, the core of the Arab Nationalist insurgency hasn't had much to do with Saddam's gov't. The Fallujah insurgents are certainly not the same thing as the Tikriti Clan.
The insurrection does cut across the religious and tribal lines (specifically, there are two insurrections, one Sunni and on Shia and both cut across tribal lines). As for the number of insurrectionists, it's no doubt huge. Keep in mind that there are cities where essentially the US or Allawi gov't can't operate.
What most Iraqis believe is that we've totally ****ed up their country, and that we ought to organize elections and get the hell out right now.
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Ted Striker
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United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:23
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I trust Senator Lugar's judgement and also his integrity.
He is probably the greatest foreign policy scholar of our time.
What is so odd about this is that he has been very vocal during most of his career, but we haven't heard a peep from him on Iraq until today.
This is the first time I have heard him since I can remember. Very odd, but I doubt it was a coincidence.
Last edited by Ted Striker on 17-09-2004 at 10:11
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Berzerker
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topeka, kansas,USA
May 1999
time: 23:23
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chegitz - quote:
You think wars of liberation start as explosions, the a general uprising? It's true, out of 25 mil, 15K aren't necessarily significant. Except that they've had phenomenal growth in the last ten months. This growth shows no sign of slowing down. |
I've already said it can get worse. But we haven't reached the critical point either and your numbers handily prove it. What is a sign of slowing down? Increasing attacks were expected as it became clear to the insurgents we weren't running this time and an Iraqi government was going to be built and they were going to lose some power to the other factions in the country, antagonistic factions.
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It is the Pentagon that has said this is becomming a nationalist uprising. |
Where? And I'll believe that when I see Kurds and Shi'ites join in, they are well ahead of the Sunni triangle wrt rebuilding after Saddam... The NIE only says a worst case scenario is civil war. Well, the damn country wouldn't even exist if not for the Brits so divide it up among the 3 factions. Hell, there could be 2 civil wars - among the Sunnis and then with the majority. But I don't think the latter will happen, we're helping the Sunnis who want to rebuild and live by helping to fight their Sunni opponents - and there ain't many of them. The key to this is the Iraqi people taking real control asap...
Ramo - quote:
The Ba'athists are Arab Nationalists. |
When they are in control, how is that different from everyone else? People generally discriminate based on distance, the greater the distance, the more blatant the discrimination. So what is a nationalist? Someone who discriminates based on distance - the greater distance being that of the foreigner compared to the countryman. Me, my family, my friends, my neighborhood and town, my state, my country...foreigners come last.
quote:
Most Sunnis are also Arab Nationalists. And as I said, the core of the Arab Nationalist insurgency hasn't had much to do with Saddam's gov't. The Fallujah insurgents are certainly not the same thing as the Tikriti Clan. |
Do you mean "hadn't much to do with Saddam's gov't"?
The Sunnis were his base of support, obviously not all Sunnis were equally supportive because they're a product of tribalism too which goes back to the distance and discrimination thing...
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The insurrection does cut across the religious and tribal lines (specifically, there are two insurrections, one Sunni and on Shia and both cut across tribal lines). |
The Shia problem is dissipating because of Sistani, it's escalating among the Sunnis for stated reasons.
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As for the number of insurrectionists, it's no doubt huge. Keep in mind that there are cities where essentially the US or Allawi gov't can't operate. |
And most of the people in those cities don't want to be involved, just a hunch... But what are they going to do, vote out the insurrectionists? A gang moves in and the locals no longer have much of a say.
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What most Iraqis believe is that we've totally ****ed up their country, and that we ought to organize elections and get the hell out right now. |
Thanks for agreeing, but their country was already ****ed up, had been ever since it was created.  Thank the Brits for that  
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Ramo
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Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:23
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quote:
When they are in control, how is that different from everyone else? People generally discriminate based on distance, the greater the distance, the more blatant the discrimination. So what is a nationalist? Someone who discriminates based on distance - the greater distance being that of the foreigner compared to the countryman. Me, my family, my friends, my neighborhood and town, my state, my country...foreigners come last. |
There are different nationalisms. People, even of the same ethnicity or same state, may identify with different nations. As I said, the Sunni Arabs identify with a common Arab nation, the Sunni Kurds identify with a common Kurdish nation, and the Shia generally identify with a common Iraqi nation.
quote:
Do you mean "hadn't much to do with Saddam's gov't"?
The Sunnis were his base of support, obviously not all Sunnis were equally supportive because they're a product of tribalism too which goes back to the distance and discrimination thing... |
I mean, now. The Arab Nationalist (i.e. Sunni) insurgents' goals aren't to put Saddam's gov't back in power.
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The Shia problem is dissipating because of Sistani, it's escalating among the Sunnis for stated reasons. |
It was created in the first place in fear of a Shia majority (not Saddm loyalism). It's escalating due to our actions, particularly the extraordinarily reckless military and police tactics on our part.
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And most of the people in those cities don't want to be involved, just a hunch... But what are they going to do, vote out the insurrectionists? A gang moves in and the locals no longer have much of a say.
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That's not the nature of the groups in Sadr City or Fallujah. It was the case in Najaf, and they was visible opposition to the Sadrists there - and it was retaken in part due to the lack of suppor for them in the cityt.
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Thanks for agreeing, but their country was already ****ed up, had been ever since it was created. Thank the Brits for that |
But we ****ed it up a lot more.
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Berzerker
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topeka, kansas,USA
May 1999
time: 23:23
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Ramo - quote:
Berz, if it were only 15,000 who oppose us militantly, they wouldn't be able to take control of major population centers. Fallujah and Sadr City (the latter is Shia BTW) would be under our control. |
We aren't using chegitz numbers? How many then?
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Further, the vast majority of Iraqis think we've totally screwed up, and want us out and an elected Iraqi gov't in ASAP (like Sistani). |
What are we debating? The question is not whether Iraqis think we screwed up, the question is about the number of insurrectionists and the strength of their support.
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That doesn't mean these people support the insurrection, which is an important distinction. |
That's what I said...
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And you're misunderstanding a key point. That the insurrections are run by nationalists of varying sorts does not mean that the insurrection is about promoting the Iraqi nation. |
Obviously, the Sunnis are leaning away from a united Iraq because of "democracy" and a brutalised majority waiting to storm the gates. That's what I've been saying all along.
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Iraqi nationalism is really prominent only among the Shia, and for their militants (the Sadrists) other priorities eclipse it. |
Only now that they may be getting a majority rule system as opposed to a Sunni dictator. The Shia were wanting us to overthrow "their" nation just a few years back, so nationalism is a rather pointless term - most everyone is nationalistic when they have some power in the form of nationhood.
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I never said that that that wasn't a reason why they're fighting. |
Calling it a nationalistic insurgency is saying they have no other relevant or dominant motive, they do have one, their existence...
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However the Sunni insurgents are by and large Arab Nationalists. That's their ideology. So it's an element in their resistance. |
Nevermind, I'm not getting through
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Berzerker
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topeka, kansas,USA
May 1999
time: 23:23
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quote:
There are different nationalisms. People, even of the same ethnicity or same state, may identify with different nations. |
Because tribalism comes before nationalism when discriminating.
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As I said, the Sunni Arabs identify with a common Arab nation, the Sunni Kurds identify with a common Kurdish nation, and the Shia generally identify with a common Iraqi nation. |
Which means they are all nationalistic to varying degrees. I said that already
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I mean, now. The Arab Nationalist (i.e. Sunni) insurgents' goals aren't to put Saddam's gov't back in power. |
Of course not, they want the power to deter revenge.
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It was created in the first place in fear of a Shia majority (not Saddm loyalism). |
Saddam wasn't even alive when Iraq was created. And how did the Brits suppress that majority? By creating a country with 3 primary factions to keep them at war while the Brits got the oil.
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It's escalating due to our actions, particularly the extraordinarily reckless military and police tactics on our part. |
Of course it's escalating, the Bushies told us it would months ago as the handover of power proceeded.
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debeest
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quote:
Originally posted by notyoueither
Still, was the US a party to a ceasefire or were they not? Was Saddam honouring the terms of said cease fire, or was he not.
You said, 'lack any real justification'. Some would say getting rid of Saddam was justification enough. The fact that he wasn't honouring ceasefires is all that is/was needed. |
Are you aware that the U.S. bombed Iraq about once a week throughout most of the period between the two Gulf wars? It's hard to claim that Hussein dishonored the ceasefire as much as we did. But it's pretty clear that almost all of the death, injuries, illness, and property damage was suffered by Iraq, not by the US.
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17-09-2004 08:59
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