17-09-2004 05:06									#1
	The Pentagon Papers, Iraq Edition Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

quote: Intelligence report: Iraq prospects bleak Thursday, September 16, 2004 Posted: 12:16 PM EDT (1616 GMT) WASHINGTON (AP) -- A highly classified National Intelligence Estimate assembled by some of the government's most senior analysts this summer provided a pessimistic assessment about the future security and stability of Iraq. The National Intelligence Council looked at the political, economic and security situation in the war-torn country and determined -- at best -- the situation would be tenuous in terms of stability, a U.S. official said late Wednesday, speaking on the condition of anonymity. At worst, the official said, were "trend lines that would point to a civil war." The official said it "would be fair" to call the document "pessimistic." The intelligence estimate, which was prepared for President Bush, considered the window of time between July and the end of 2005. But the official noted that the document, which spans roughly 50 pages, draws on intelligence community assessments from January 2003, before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the subsequent deteriorating security situation there. (2 Americans, Briton kidnapped in Baghdad) The latest assessment was undertaken by the National Intelligence Council, a group of senior intelligence officials who provide long-term strategic thinking for the entire U.S. intelligence community but report to the director of central intelligence, now acting CIA Director John McLaughlin. He and the leaders of the other intelligence agencies approved it. The estimate contrasts with public comments of Bush and his senior aides who speak more optimistically about the prospects for a peaceful and free Iraq. "We're making progress on the ground," Bush said at his Texas ranch late last month. A CIA spokesman declined to comment Wednesday night, and a National Security Council spokesman could not be reached for comment. The document was first reported by the New York Times on its Web site Wednesday night. It is the first formal assessment of Iraq since the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on the threat posed by fallen Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. . . . "Our committee heard blindly optimistic people from the administration prior to the war and people outside the administration -- what I call the 'dancing in the street crowd,' that we just simply will be greeted with open arms," Lugar said. "The nonsense of all of that is apparent. The lack of planning is apparent."

http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/09/16/us.iraq.ap/index.html

	17-09-2004 05:10									#2
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what a cluster*

	17-09-2004 05:24									#3
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Yet Bush will say that everything is alright, and the cheering hordes will believe him.

Democracy is dead.

	17-09-2004 06:42									#4
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Godwin, Vietnam Edition

	17-09-2004 06:44									#5
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soooo depressing - people never learn............

	17-09-2004 07:09									#6
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quote: Originally posted by Verto Godwin, Vietnam Edition

Where Godwin?

	17-09-2004 07:13									#7
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quote: The latest assessment was undertaken by the National Intelligence Council, a group of senior intelligence officials who provide long-term strategic thinking for the entire U.S. intelligence community

Then why are they providing a short term assessment?

Clearly the insurgency has thrown a monkey wrench into the works, but I have to believe most Iraqis want to be more free than under Saddam. We can stay and help them or we can cut and run and leave a mess and that would be the third time we backstabbed the Iraqi people.

	17-09-2004 07:16									#8
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quote: Yet Bush will say that everything is alright, and the cheering hordes will believe him. Democracy is dead.

One of the gripes against the market is that most people lack the information needed to make wise consumer decisions, it appears Democracy suffers from the same problem.

	17-09-2004 07:50									#9
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Yet Bush will say that everything is alright, and the cheering hordes will believe him. Democracy is dead.

Not really.

His own party in Congress just blasted him today on the reconstruction efforts.

	17-09-2004 07:58									#10
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quote: but I have to believe most Iraqis want to be more free than under Saddam.

But not at the beck and call of the US. That the US is planning to set up its largest "embassy" in Iraq would worry any Iraqi nationalist.

quote: One of the gripes against the market is that most people lack the information needed to make wise consumer decisions, it appears Democracy suffers from the same problem.

That's a wise comment. I agree to a certain extent.

However, the best arguments for democracy are that it tends to be quite quick at getting rid of absolutely terrible governments even if the governments it does produce are nothing to write home about.

But one of the things pushed by both liberals and conservatives is that democracies are a panacea when it comes to international relations. The idea is supposed to be that the democratic will won't stand for aggressive moves that lack any real justification.

Bush and Blair have shown that this is simply not true. There aren't enough people who care enough about what goes on outside their nation's borders to make a difference and political structures have become ossified to make any realistic foreign policy alternatives impossible.

ergo - there is reason to believe that nation-state democracies cannot solve the world's problems.

Now... where's my rifle and beret?

	17-09-2004 07:59									#11
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quote: His own party in Congress just blasted him today on the reconstruction efforts.

What!?! Spine!?!

I am flabbertigabbitigasted.

	17-09-2004 08:02									#12
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It's true, they even used harsh language:

quote: "It's beyond pitiful, it's beyond embarrassing, it's now in the zone of dangerous," said Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Nebraska, referring to figures showing only about 6 percent of the reconstruction money approved by Congress last year has been spent.

quote: Hagel, Committee Chairman Richard Lugar, R-Indiana, and other committee members have long argued -- even before the war -- that administration plans for rebuilding Iraq were inadequate and based on overly optimistic assumptions that Americans would be greeted as liberators. (Biden questions fitness of Iraqi security force) But the criticism from the panel's top Republicans had an extra sting coming less than seven weeks before the presidential election in which President Bush's handling of the war is a top issue. "Our committee heard blindly optimistic people from the administration prior to the war and people outside the administration -- what I call the 'dancing in the street crowd,' that we just simply will be greeted with open arms," Lugar said. "The nonsense of all of that is apparent. The lack of planning is apparent." He said the need to shift the reconstruction funds was clear in July, but the administration was slow to make the request. "This is an extraordinary, ineffective administrative procedure. It is exasperating from anybody looking at this from any vantage point," he said.

	17-09-2004 08:04									#13
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I seem to recall Hagel as being one of the few Republicans (and frankly one of the few Senators) who occasionally utters an original thought.

	17-09-2004 08:05									#14
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You guys really need to vote that nut out.

	17-09-2004 08:05									#15
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I just edited it. Also read Lugar's scathing comments.

	17-09-2004 08:06									#16
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon You guys really need to vote that nut out.

He's a moron.

I let everyone I know that he sucks and I'm voting him out.

	17-09-2004 08:08									#17
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So when can we expect your CPA membership application?

	17-09-2004 08:08									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon But one of the things pushed by both liberals and conservatives is that democracies are a panacea when it comes to international relations. The idea is supposed to be that the democratic will won't stand for aggressive moves that lack any real justification. Bush and Blair have shown that this is simply not true. There aren't enough people who care enough about what goes on outside their nation's borders to make a difference and political structures have become ossified to make any realistic foreign policy alternatives impossible.

Would you care to demonstrate how Saddam was the leader of a democratically elected government?

	17-09-2004 08:08									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon So when can we expect your CPA membership application?

Don't push it!

	17-09-2004 08:21									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker He's a moron. I let everyone I know that he sucks and I'm voting him out.

Someone should inform John Kerry of the urgency.

Perhaps a letter.


11 Credibility St.
Bum****
Arkansas

16-09-2004

Dear Senator Kerry,

It has perhaps escaped your attention that a grave crisis threatens the Republic: the president is a moron surrounded by a bunch of maniacal incompetents who have no idea how to conduct effective foreign policy.

In response to this deadly danger something needs to be done. So I am urging you to immediately retrieve your testicles from wherever you have put them and start acting like you've got a pair. Your present campaign strategy of "act like an ineffectual arse" isn't working, other than to convey an aura of non-specific ineffectual arseness to the general public.

Please alter this strategy to "George Bush is a stupid mother****** and we and the rest of the world are ***ed if he stays". Every speech you give should include the words "liar", "chickenhawk" and "asshat" in close proximity to your opponent's name.

So start acting like a man. If you need reminding what it feels like to be a man, get a fat intern with big boobs to blow you. It worked for Clinton, and the sexual exploitation of women is the traditional Democratic way (everyone knows that the "F" in John F Kennedy stood for "**** machine" - why do you think that Monroe bimbo always looked so dazed?).

So pull your finger out you ****.


Yours

Elmer Fudd.

	17-09-2004 08:22									#21
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quote: Would you care to demonstrate how Saddam was the leader of a democratically elected government?

I was talking about our side, not his... SFB.

	17-09-2004 08:33									#22
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quote: But not at the beck and call of the US. That the US is planning to set up its largest "embassy" in Iraq would worry any Iraqi nationalist.

True, we can't afford to hang around and treat the country like a foothold in the ME for future endeavors, but I doubt there are many nationalists waging this insurrection. It's more the people who had power under Saddam and who fear a transfer of power to potential and actual enemies within the country. So there are at least two kinds of nationalists, Saddam's supporters and Saddam's more numerous opponents and the latter group, with at least 1 notable exception (Sadr) is not only giving us time but helping. It's the same in Afghanistan, nationalists who hate the Taliban versus nationalists who support the Taliban... It's only logical that the first few months of the effort would be the most difficult.

	17-09-2004 08:36									#23
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quote: I doubt there are many nationalists waging this insurrection. It's more the people who had power under Saddam and who fear a transfer of power to potential and actual enemies within the country

No. It's all of them, and they are ganging up because they hate the US more than each other. I saw a couple of ex-military academics state this as fact last week, and it has been in the press for some time.

	17-09-2004 08:40									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Berzerker I doubt there are many nationalists waging this insurrection. It's more the people who had power under Saddam

According to the talking heads, you iz wrong. Last year there were talking about 5,000 insurgents. The Pentagon now believes there are 15,000, and are expected to continue growing.

	17-09-2004 08:47									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon I was talking about our side, not his... SFB.

My bad. I was assuming you were on about democracies attacking democracies. I think it was this line:

quote: ergo - there is reason to believe that nation-state democracies cannot solve the world's problems.

Still, was the US a party to a ceasefire or were they not? Was Saddam honouring the terms of said cease fire, or was he not.

You said, 'lack any real justification'. Some would say getting rid of Saddam was justification enough. The fact that he wasn't honouring ceasefires is all that is/was needed.

	17-09-2004 08:50									#26
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither You said, 'lack any real justification'. Some would say getting rid of Saddam was justification enough. The fact that he wasn't honouring ceasefires is all that is/was needed.

This is all off-thread. The point of this thread is that the Administration, having information that not only is all not going well, but that it isn't going to go well, continues to lie to the American public.

	17-09-2004 08:50									#27
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quote: Some would say getting rid of Saddam was justification enough.

You forget rule #1 - calculate the risks involved with either option. Leaving him be was the lesser risk as people argued at the time and as has now proved to be the case.

	17-09-2004 08:51									#28
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Stop threadjacking!

	17-09-2004 08:53									#29
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quote: Stop threadjacking!

Stalinist!!!!

	17-09-2004 08:53									#30
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Stop threadjacking!

What? It's what Canucks do! You have your nice little stream flowing peacefully into the pond. WHAM! beaver damn.