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Trip is offline Trip
Firaxis Games
Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:23
  Old Post 19-09-2004 06:18 Visit Trip's homepage!
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Okay, I had some time this weekend so I thought I'd type this up:

First off, the Apolytonian golden age (not the in-game one ) is over. We were doing great, but GWT saw us trying to land. Now GWT has seen CFC. Both LZs are blocked. GWT has (probably now) 60+ Ansar. They have many boats, recently finished Education and are no doubt bee-lining for Navigation. At max pace they could have it in 8 turns. WW is no longer a concern. Their economy, unleashed, is still far superior to our own. With GCA on the rise they'll soon have a powerful advantage once again. And they also have Leo's Workshop.

All this means is that in 8 turns they could put together a force that lands on our continent. All of us know the skill level of CFC as well as how much they pay attention to what goes on in the game. If we aren't careful here the game could be lost. We can still win this game but doing so will require attention on the right details and focusing on the important parts of this game...

We need to turn the ship around and focus on what's most important now.

I do not believe a landing is wise any more, and I think most people agree with me. The odds of us A) getting ashore and B) doing any significant damage are quite low. At best we take a couple cities with a very slim shot at their FP, and at worst we do no damage and lose our entire fastmover force, which is likely no matter what we accomplish. Yes, the poll said to land. But things have changed since then and I believe people's opinions have changed since then.

I also think it's foolhardy for CFC to attempt anything now. They have a hard enough time producing units, the ones they lose would be even more valuable than ones we might lose. We should turn back both invasion forces, both set up a naval sentry net to watch for GWT and prepare our fastmovers for unit wall duty. I have talked with Emperor from CFC and explained the situation to him. He seems convinced and is posting all of this for his team. Hopefully they too can be convinced of the dire straights we are in and the necessary action.

Together we and CFC have quite a few ships already which can start working on the net. We will need more ships, but for now we have time since GWT still fears an invasion of their own soil. We show our fleet one last time to keep them paranoid, then bee-line for home. Drop off the units, then start setting up a screen. It's especially important to get CFC in on this effort. We cannot afford to ignore their role in this. They have ships and if they turn back they'll also have some fastmovers to help block the shore. They also have some slowmovers to help block more vital points that should never be uncovered.

We should continue researching at as fast of a pace as possible. CFC should contribute gold to our effort. They must have built up quite a bit of gold by now and with that we can push up to 4-turn research. We push as hard as we can for RRs, Factories, Infantry and later Tanks and Marines.

The Theory of Evolution wonder and its 2 free techs will be very important as GWT's research rate increases and GCA becomes more powerful. Hoover's Dam is essential. If it's lost, the game is also.

Later we can launch a Hoover powered Marine-Tank-Infantry assault of GWT and bring this game to a close. But to do that we need research, we need industry and above all we need defense. If nothing else, should we grab Hoovers and survive that far then a Space Ship victory or UN (gagh) is within our grasp even if an invasion is not deemed ideal or should happen to fail.

One of the things I disagree with most on how things are going is the focus on economic planning and economic buildup. Yes, having wonders is good, having Worker Pumps is good, having Markets and Libraries and all that is just great. But it won't matter if GWT gets 40 Ansar ashore while we still only have 15 Knights near each core. We need boats, we need units to block the shore. This deserves more attention than all the talk about Worker Pumps. GWT can INVADE us soon.

The threat is very real, we need to tailor how we play this game from now on in response to that. Cut the iron, start building Horsemen again. Get SOME cities building more boats to watch. Kick CFC's ass and get them to send us some money to help research. Also get them to build boats and units of their own. Let's get this done and the game won.

Lord Nuclear is offline Lord Nuclear
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Jun 2002
time: 21:23
  Old Post 19-09-2004 06:51
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I'm definitely in support of what Trip said. Hopefully we can decide something quickly and then set a chat up with CFC. If we play it correctly, we could win this game still.

MrWhereItsAt is offline MrWhereItsAt
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Nov 2001
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  Old Post 19-09-2004 08:22
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I still favour a landing, if nothing but to give GWT's economy a bit of a hit, but I honestly don't know how we can go about it with LZs being blocked all the time. If someone had a genius idea that would work, great, but I admit that this possibility is VERY slim.

As for a military build-up, sure, there are a number of cities that are ideal for that, and a number more that could be diverted from time to time without suffering loss of growth opportunity, and I will get onto this in the next few days. BUT Trip, I feel you are underestimating the need for continued growth in order to keep up with GWT. Stopping ourselves from being invaded is a priority, but once we have what is needed here, we MUST maintain our growth so we can compete with GWT in the future. If not, and we spend too much time on military builds now, we will end up too far behind them for ANY kind of victory but the UN, which we would not build.

These wonders we are hoping to get are as critical to long-term success as not being invaded now. If GWT gets to them first we're screwed.

So this begs the question - should we try to get CFC to turn back as well, and use their units as a coastal shield as well?

Also, why not be nice and give Education to CGN? It won't help GWT at all. It could help secure their help for the future too. There will need to be a good level of trust if we that peninsula they are on is to be protected as well, and it must be. Those tiles would be a perfect landing spot for GWT - right near our original core.

BigFree is offline BigFree

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  Old Post 19-09-2004 14:20
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See my posts in the other threads...

Thanks for this post Trip.

I agree with it for the most part..though I'm not as sure as you that GWT will actually put together a landing party of significance, shortly after their ability to make ocean crossings becomes a reality, that would warrant our drasticaly changing our continued buildup of our economy. I do, howerver, agree that a certain amount of cities should be put on military duty only.

To put it shortly, I do not think GWT will try a landing within the next 30 turns or even 40 turns. I'm not saying they won't send over a ship or two; but nothing for us to get distressed over. They will still have to watch their immense landmass and their two cores very well; not to mention their pet GCA.

Is it possible? Yes. Likely or even a 5% chance? I'd say no. Do I want to err on the side of caution? Well, sort of. Let's get the majority of our troops back home and get a picket up to ease "some" of our concerns.

It's more than likely that GWT is over reacting to spotting us and CFC. Let's not do the same. While GWT builds up more to protect their homeland, lets build our economy so that we can get a hold on this tech race for good! Once we have 4 turn research as a forgone conslusion, this game will be over.

OPD is offline OPD
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Jun 2002
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  Old Post 19-09-2004 15:42
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I agree with what Trip says.

Although I'd rather just block all the coastal tiles rather than try to fight GWT. That is where they are strong so should just wait them out untill all their ansars become redundant. Overall we can't defeat GWT millitarily right (obviously) and I don't think we can defeat them economically in the long term if we have to concentrate too much on millitary now.

I'm not saying tile blocking will be easy, we'll likely have to do alot on CFC's side too, but it's the most effective thing to do.

Hot_Enamel is offline Hot_Enamel
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  Old Post 19-09-2004 18:55
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What Trip said ... (finally)



Bring 'em all back

Krill is offline Krill
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Dec 2003
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  Old Post 19-09-2004 19:22
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Trip is offline Trip
Firaxis Games
Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
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  Old Post 19-09-2004 20:57 Visit Trip's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by MrWhereItsAt
I still favour a landing, if nothing but to give GWT's economy a bit of a hit, but I honestly don't know how we can go about it with LZs being blocked all the time. If someone had a genius idea that would work, great, but I admit that this possibility is VERY slim.

As for a military build-up, sure, there are a number of cities that are ideal for that, and a number more that could be diverted from time to time without suffering loss of growth opportunity, and I will get onto this in the next few days. BUT Trip, I feel you are underestimating the need for continued growth in order to keep up with GWT. Stopping ourselves from being invaded is a priority, but once we have what is needed here, we MUST maintain our growth so we can compete with GWT in the future. If not, and we spend too much time on military builds now, we will end up too far behind them for ANY kind of victory but the UN, which we would not build.

These wonders we are hoping to get are as critical to long-term success as not being invaded now. If GWT gets to them first we're screwed.

So this begs the question - should we try to get CFC to turn back as well, and use their units as a coastal shield as well?

Also, why not be nice and give Education to CGN? It won't help GWT at all. It could help secure their help for the future too. There will need to be a good level of trust if we that peninsula they are on is to be protected as well, and it must be. Those tiles would be a perfect landing spot for GWT - right near our original core.

I think you mistake my concentration on military affairs in this thread for lack of attention for domestic ones. I assure you, that is not the case. As I said, our priorities should be defense-research-industry. I not feel we should put economic matters on the back burner, but lately we've had no discussion of defense or military production. I feel it's better to yell too loudly about the dangers than whisper too quietly, especially with the course that we've been taking.

Why do you think it's wise to land? I too would like to be able to take down GWT's FP. But chances are they'll defend that completely because they know how valuable it is. So we land and take out 1 or 2 cities that isn't the FP city. That means we lose 30 Knights for 2 GWT cities. Considering their ability to build units compared with ours that is not a good payoff at all.

CFC should certainly turn its force back. I thought I explained that well enough in my first post. CFC is basically the "weak link." Unless we whip them into shape they'll be a perfect place for GWT to land, which we cannot afford. Education to CGN is fine, since GWT already has it.

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 19-09-2004 21:03 Visit Trip's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by BigFree
See my posts in the other threads...

Thanks for this post Trip.

I agree with it for the most part..though I'm not as sure as you that GWT will actually put together a landing party of significance, shortly after their ability to make ocean crossings becomes a reality, that would warrant our drasticaly changing our continued buildup of our economy. I do, howerver, agree that a certain amount of cities should be put on military duty only.

To put it shortly, I do not think GWT will try a landing within the next 30 turns or even 40 turns. I'm not saying they won't send over a ship or two; but nothing for us to get distressed over. They will still have to watch their immense landmass and their two cores very well; not to mention their pet GCA.

Is it possible? Yes. Likely or even a 5% chance? I'd say no. Do I want to err on the side of caution? Well, sort of. Let's get the majority of our troops back home and get a picket up to ease "some" of our concerns.

It's more than likely that GWT is over reacting to spotting us and CFC. Let's not do the same. While GWT builds up more to protect their homeland, lets build our economy so that we can get a hold on this tech race for good! Once we have 4 turn research as a forgone conslusion, this game will be over.

GWT does fear an invasion by us, but they are larger and can absorb more damage. Plus, they have a MUCH bigger military. With their Ansar alone they could block the coasts and with their slowmovers they could make a landing. We know that they had something like 15 Longbows, 10 MIs, 15 Cats and 15 Pikes down in CGN-land, who knows what other stashes of weapons they have? A landing like that would be VERY difficult to stop if they got ashore, especially with 10-20 Ansar.

I don't advocate overreacting. I advocate caution and proper planning. GWT's military is much larger than ours. They can block their coasts and defend their lands much better and with a faster response than we can. We have a smaller military and less capability to build up. GWT could concentrate on building units for the next 15 turns, then land in 20 with 100 units (it's possible). What would we do then? If we don't stop such a force from getting ashore then it's clearly game over. We need the capability to protect ourselves. I'm not talking everything to military, damn the wonders, Markets and Libraries, but a proper balance. We haven't had a city besides BFM building units consistantly since a few turns before the fleet set off. That's a very dangerous precedent.

My point is this: IF GWT were to attempt a landing and IF they were to get ashore, then all the 4-turn research in the world won't save us.

BigFree is offline BigFree

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  Old Post 19-09-2004 23:31
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100 units..20 turns??? No way in hell. CFC did not see a Galley of GWT's or GCA's. I think GWT/GCA just got "lucky" with the blockage of CFC's landing.

GWT prolly has like 8-10 Galley's and does not have enough Ansar or other units to block every tile. No, they have to use Galley's now as sentries so that they can move their Ansar into position to do some of the blocking. GWT needs many more sentries and those ships won't be doing double duty for quite some time. It's much more like 50-60 turns before we would see 100 units headed over and that would only be possible if GWT left their own lands open to invasion as well.

Don't ge me wrong, I want to prepare as well for a GWT invasion, it's jst that I don't see how they can do it as soon as you say and in the number of forces you predict without them ruining their own research goals. To "safely" send over 100 units they would have to be supporting somewhere over 400 units. How much research could they do like that?

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 20-09-2004 01:15 Visit Trip's homepage!
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BF, have you noticed how many massive coastal cities they have? Galley to Caravel upgrades cost chump change for GWT with Leo's.

If GWT focused solely on constructing Galleys/Caravels the next 15 turns, they could easily get 30 more boats built. If they wanted to. Which is the issue. They can do it, so we need to prepare for it.

GWT doesn't need to defend all of itself very well. Just hold onto the FP, hold onto the main core. Fight a defensive war anywhere else. With the massive numbers of land units they have they can afford to land anywhere. In the case of a simultaneous landing, they will win.

BigFree is offline BigFree

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  Old Post 20-09-2004 01:43
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Once they get Astro, they can't build Galley's.

BigFree is offline BigFree

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  Old Post 20-09-2004 01:51
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quote:
Originally posted by Trip

If GWT focused solely on constructing Galleys/Caravels the next 15 turns, they could easily get 30 more boats built. If they wanted to. Which is the issue. They can do it, so we need to prepare for it.



I don't think that is at all feasible for them. You have them building everything! They only have so many cities, they have choices to make as well. They are currently building both Galley's and blocking units. Even if they are overreacting just a bit they still have 50% of their cities producing Libraries and other such improvements.

They also have the gpt limit; a limit which causes them to not be able to research at a significant pace.

I think you have made your point and we will take an even keeled approach to it. We do have to react somewhat to all possibilities but we need to do so with some restraint and reason. Otherwise we risk overproducing militarily and underfunding research.

Let's just settle on doing some of both, ok?

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 20-09-2004 02:25 Visit Trip's homepage!
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BF, you're not reading what I'm saying. I've said that GWT is capable of it. I didn't say it was inevitable or that we need to throw away all of our domestic builds. My point is that we have to plan for every possible eventuality.

They could ignore Libraries and Markets. They could concentrate solely on military. They could build up 30 new boats in 20 turns. It's foolish to pretend that these aren't possibilities. Even if they don't land with that much, they could still land with 50 units or even 30. In 20 turns. Against CFC that could spell complete disaster. And a 50-unit invasion against CFC isn't that far-fetched. That's only about 17 Caravels.

Arnelos is offline Arnelos
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  Old Post 20-09-2004 05:39
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Trip sent me (and I presume a lot of people) a PM about this and I've just read up what I can on the subject.

I hate to admit it, but from what I've seen it looks like Trip is absolutely correct. The invasion needs to be aborted and our troops brought home to defend our own shores. If we can manage to block LZs the way GWT has done to us, we could force a military stalemate long enough for an industrial age strategy to pay off. It's a lot better shot at this point than hoping for an LZ.

Arrian is offline Arrian
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  Old Post 20-09-2004 19:45
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I've been saying something like this for a while now. So I'll just say that I agree: we must look to our defenses. PRONTO.

-Arrian

Master Zen is offline Master Zen
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  Old Post 20-09-2004 19:48 Visit Master Zen's homepage!
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So Trip, what part of the "if we don't land after the second turn we won't ever find a spot" finally dawned on you?

But yes, I agree 100%. Let's bring them back where we'll need them the most. Btw, remember my old BEELINE TO MILITARY-TRADITION thread? Hint hint...

Togas is offline Togas
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  Old Post 21-09-2004 01:15
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Sounds like a plan.

The only thing I'd like to add is that we CANNOT let GWT know that we're retreating and returning home. The morale boost it'll give them will encourage them to try to turn the tables and come after us at the first opportunity. We must continue to pretend to pose a threat, perhaps "accidentally" showing ships at different locations while our main force heads for home to disembark.

Psychologicly, we must force them to build units to block their shores, and not to build ships or to invest in research. We need to continue to push them to bog down their economy with a burdensome military budget.

And we definately need to get pickets and blockade units in production.

--Togas

Fried-Psitalon is offline Fried-Psitalon
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  Old Post 25-09-2004 19:02
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quote:
Originally posted by Arnelos
Trip sent me (and I presume a lot of people) a PM about this and I've just read up what I can on the subject.

I hate to admit it, but from what I've seen it looks like Trip is absolutely correct. The invasion needs to be aborted and our troops brought home to defend our own shores. If we can manage to block LZs the way GWT has done to us, we could force a military stalemate long enough for an industrial age strategy to pay off. It's a lot better shot at this point than hoping for an LZ.


Gentlemen, if I may join in the discussion. I come back to you now at the turning of the tide, as it were.

As I said once long ago, this sort of tactics is very heavily my forte and let me paint this in as clear a term as possible:

If that invasion lands - and very possibly even if it doesn't and the troops are brought home - Apolyton is in seriously deep chit.

Trip is absolutely right; MP combat is all about swings of power. Right now, the power is swinging back and forth - had your invasion worked, the swing would've been in your favor, but to do so now, you will see your force butchered by GWT, and then they will take their still-existing-and-promoted troops, put them on boats, and ram them down your rebuilding throats.

From what I've discerned and what I know of GWT, they're also quite clever. I wouldn't be surprised if they DID have a group of boats stacked up somewhere. GWT is using a very common MP tactic - "damn the infrastructure, full war ahead." There are several schools of MP (at least for Accel Prod, and not QuickCiv) thought that say this is absolutely supreme, and they may be right. *I* do not think so, but I suspect this is about to be put to the test.

The balance of strength right now is clearly to GWT, and I believe Trip is also correct about the immediacy of the invasion threat. GWT *knows* they have the power right now, and one of the basic tenets of MP is that if you have the power, USE IT IMMEDIATELY, before the balance can be shifted.

Military tradition should absolutely be the most important focus of this team right now. Magnetism will not stop the boats. (In truth I would've advocating waiting until Mil Tra and Magnetism before attacking, were I still here then, because Navigation is a waste of time IMO. The "power jump" gained by attacking a little later with cavalry in galleons is vastly superior to the speed advantage of Navigation when dealing with humans. Again, just MP experience at work.) Cavalry, however, would probably stop the boats - and will also give you a means to smash what lands, if the boats DO land in CFC's land - which is a given. They will grab a foothold in the weaker partner's land if they have any intelligence at all - which they do.

I believe Togas is also astute in that the "gambit" must continue with GWT seeing boats. This, too, is a tactic that I - though not many other MP do - use, the "empty boats trailing their coats along the shoreline" manuever. Even in PBEM, there is a limited attention span factor, and making absolutely sure they have to spend time each turn watching APO boats will help with that. Swapping caravels to galleons when the time is right would also be very wise, to make it appear that you're "serious" about what you're doing. (It might also cause GWT to build a frigate navy to try and drive your "dud" boats off, slowing their invasion somewhat.)

Honestly, I am a bit surprised about one thing GWT is doing - letting you know that THEY know what's going on. The smartest move would've been to ambush your landing force with Ansars after it arrives. The fact that they instead "warded you off" rather than springing a trap suggests that they at least respect Apolyton might to some degree - which works in your favor in the short term, since they will take longer to build a greater attack force, but against you in the long term, since the force, when it arrives, will be much larger.

Incidentally, I think it is rather unlikely that a military victory for APO over GWT will be possible. I think you should PLAN for the Space Race or the UN - GWT will try to invade, and that will either succeed, ending the game, or it will fail - and at that time they will close the research gap enough to have infantry before a meaningful tank and marine army can be assembled.

::bows, takes his staff, and shuffles out::

BigFree is offline BigFree

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  Old Post 25-09-2004 22:19
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We can have MT in 10 turns with a little gold being given by CFC; perhaps 300-400 would do it.

We are going to put the cities with Barracks on full time unit duty for now. The question that begs is do we disconnect the SP and the Iron? Or just the SP?

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 25-09-2004 22:25 Visit Trip's homepage!
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If we want to make a force of Cavalry then it will have to be the iron. 70 shield Knights are a bit much for our economy. The difference between those and 30s Horses are greater than 60s Muskets and 30s NMs.

Master Zen is offline Master Zen
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wow, nice to see you "back" F-P

Master Zen is offline Master Zen
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btw, what we can basically do is send our big stack of caravels back home, unload them, and then the ships back to act as lurkers around GWT's coast, serving also the dual purpose of trying to spot a GWT invasion fleet. Just so GWT doesn't suspect, we can replace the ships already there by using the ol' "change ship name" trick

Oh and please please PLEASE heed my words on the beeline to Military Tradition issue. I was paranoid then, I'm even more now

Trip is offline Trip
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  Old Post 25-09-2004 22:54 Visit Trip's homepage!
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We need boats to watch for GWT also. Lots of boats.

E_T is offline E_T
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  Old Post 26-09-2004 07:40
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I have no time to read either this post/thread nor any other thread at this time, as I've got 20 minutes to beat the Curfew from Hurricane Jeanne.

But I'll say this, please, please think carefully as to what is doable and not and what we will have to face fairly soon. Think about it, walk away and let it simmer while you do something else, then take a look at all of the realities and make your decision.

Now, I've got to go.

E_T

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Jan 2002
time: 06:23
  Old Post 29-09-2004 03:52
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As to the invasion: I never really believed in it, but I'm not involved enough to have anything to say about it. However, I've got some economical points to make.

1. GWT / GCA will eventually be better than us in research, unless we get CFC to research as well. we could probably reach the ToE just in time, but with their help we could race towards tanks much more efficiently. So, somewhere along the line we should get them to research on their own, even if it's only at 10-turn pace it's better than nothing.

2. Mil Trad is a waste, a detour. Navigation is as well. democracy idem ditto.

3. As already mentioned above: you don't need a lot of mil production to cover the coast. We should focus on covering all tiles, not having only a mobile defense. Otherwise, we risk that GWT comes in so many places that we can't cover them all. But, any unit will do: cut our iron, and horses will cover our coast just as easily... and with a perfect screen, the quality of the units won't matter. The only reusable units are defenders or workers, but if that takes too long to build, horses will do nicely.

4. The only way to catch up to GWT, and keep the productive power needed is to focus squarely on economic power, once our screen is in order. And that means growth, now. So.. worker pumps... veteran horses are a waste, so need for barrack's cities. More workers are needed, to improve all land, and max out cities. But you know my PoV already

5. Wonder builds: some are nice to have, some are absolutely needed to get. Hoover is overrated, but ToE is immense. And as ToE in most cases leads to Hoover, going for that is a nice extra as well. Whatever work is put in MoI MMing, should go into the prebuild for ToE... My guess is that, with the RRs coming up, there aren't too many possible places to build it, so early planning is needed.

DeepO

Fried-Psitalon is offline Fried-Psitalon
Prince
Not just another pretty face.
Dec 2002
time: 00:23
  Old Post 29-09-2004 07:52
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Do let me know your plan for covering every tile, especially the ones in CFC's lands.

DeepO is offline DeepO

Emperor
supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:23
  Old Post 29-09-2004 13:45
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What's the problem, can't they build horses anymore?

Besides, every knight is worth over 2 horses in production, and if you're looking at preventing GWT to land, instead of destroying them once landed, it doesn't matter what the quality of your units are, as long as you've got many of them. So cut that iron right now!

DeepO

Fried-Psitalon is offline Fried-Psitalon
Prince
Not just another pretty face.
Dec 2002
time: 00:23
  Old Post 29-09-2004 17:33
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Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

I'm putting together a report of likely GWT attack sites; areas we want to cover first and hardest. I should have it done this evening.

conmcb25 is offline conmcb25

Emperor
Angmar
Aug 2002
time: 23:23
  Old Post 29-09-2004 20:14 Visit conmcb25<br><a href=/members><img src=/forums/images/inmate-icon.gif border=0></a><BR>'s homepage!
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Ok it seems like we are now heading down the path of withdrawl and build up.

Has anyone talked to CFC about this? I have not seen anything at the Alliance Forum at CGN.

We really need to convince them to withdraw as well......

 
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