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CerberusIV
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I live in one of the seats (Selby) that EiF has mentioned. I hopefully won't still be here when the General Election comes around. However, the sad truth (for the Tories) is that John Grogan was never seriously expected to win the seat in 1997 and not really expected to hold it in 2001. Before 1997 there was a solid Tory majority here and even if they do take the seat next election it is unlikely to be by anything like the majority they enjoyed a couple of dacedes ago. This is basically a rural constituency with a Labour inclined town in the middle. If the Tories aren't winning this sort of seat fairly easily they are still nowhere.
Part of the problem is a media impression, linked to the change of leadership. Hague and IDS made a show of trying to reform the party structure and broaden its appeal. Howard doesn't give the same impression so there is no real evidence of attracting new or returning voters. I would never vote Conservative (I remember Thatcher and the '80's too well) but Howard reminds me too much of that era and policies. It will take a long time for voters to trust Howard. After all, he is only party leader thanks to a political coup and his little helpers arranging to stab his predecessor in the back. That may be the way of politics but it doesn't foster trust.
The Conservatives have a further problem in that a lot of the local association members, whom they rely on for leafleting, etc are ageing. It is easy enough to bus a horde of people in for a by-election but do they have enough people to truly fight a general election on the ground. I doubt it and that leaves a media which is still somewhat pro-Labour as the main means of getting to the voters.
Labour have got things set up quite nicely. The economy and social policies aren't doing badly so there isn't a reason to vote Labour out but they aren't doing well enough that people can afford to vote for who the hell they like. Better the devil you know.
A lot depends on who wins the US Presidency and how that affects Iraq. If there is a clear way forward on Iraq before the next General Election here then that will remove Tony's only real weakness and the rest will be history.
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Zulu Elephant
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Anyone watching BBC 1? Politics show is talking about the same thing as us
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*End Is Forever*
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Salford, UK
Jan 1970
time: 05:22
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CerberusIV,
quote:
However, the sad truth (for the Tories) is that John Grogan was never seriously expected to win the seat in 1997 and not really expected to hold it in 2001. Before 1997 there was a solid Tory majority here and even if they do take the seat next election it is unlikely to be by anything like the majority they enjoyed a couple of dacedes ago. This is basically a rural constituency with a Labour inclined town in the middle. If the Tories aren't winning this sort of seat fairly easily they are still nowhere. |
You're right... and every indication is that even with no change in the national picture Mark Menzies will win that seat back, and comfortably so. My (recent) ex-girlfriend works for Grogan and even she privately conceded that they were fighting a losing battle.
I'd be disappointed if we didn't win that seat by 5000 or more.
quote:
The Conservatives have a further problem in that a lot of the local association members, whom they rely on for leafleting, etc are ageing. It is easy enough to bus a horde of people in for a by-election but do they have enough people to truly fight a general election on the ground. I doubt it and that leaves a media which is still somewhat pro-Labour as the main means of getting to the voters. |
You'd be surprised actually. Whilst it is true that the Conservatives have the highest average-age for members, the different between ourselves and Labour is only a couple of years, with the same difference between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
The most active set of party members are students, and I have no doubt that this year we'll be streets ahead in terms of student membership. The LibDems only have strong branches on a handful of campuses, and Labour (traditionally having held campuses in a strong grip) have declined so much amongst students as to be pitiful.
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Zulu Elephant
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Prediction:
Labour win the next general election with a good (50-100) majority, Blair resigns mid-to-late term (although he'll never last the whole term) and someone (the longer he takes to leave, the less chance it'll be Brown) takes over, giving Labour the boost it needs to win a decent majority in 2009.
Obviously this is all dependent on 'events' (as Harold MacMillan would say) but I think most people could get behind this idea.
Beyond that, a possible move to PR (unlikely under Blair of Brown), a Conservative implosion/split/recovery or massive increase in Lib Dem support (although nowhere near enough to break through into the main opposition bracket) will determine what happens after that.
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Zulu Elephant
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Im with you EF
Spoiling your ballot is a political act, giving you full right to complain about the government (and all parties)
Not voting leaves you with no right to criticise the government
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Apolyton Time is 00:22. |
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03-10-2004 07:37
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