03-10-2004 09:09									#61
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quote: Originally posted by Edan LA Times Poll: link

Ah yes, LA Times... LA Times...

http://www.command-post.org/2004/2_archives/012868.html

"“Not counting independents, the Times’ results were calculated on a sample made up of 38 percent Democrats and 25 percent Republicans — a huge and unheard-of margin,” ROLL CALL claims."

They have a bad history as it is.

	03-10-2004 09:16									#62
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This is all about image.

It's not really about what the candidates are like, but about what the voters think they are like.

So far, statistically speaking, the polls are in a dead heat. I am assuming a 2.5% margin of error, so anything within 5% of each other is the same.

However, as Ramo pointed out, the trend is what's interesting. Even though, unless Kerry can carry some of the traditional Republican states, the deciding factors are the so called "Battleground States," and Bush has Florida in his back pocket.

	03-10-2004 09:20									#63
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo Ah yes, LA Times... LA Times... http://www.command-post.org/2004/2_archives/012868.html "“Not counting independents, the Times’ results were calculated on a sample made up of 38 percent Democrats and 25 percent Republicans — a huge and unheard-of margin,” ROLL CALL claims." They have a bad history as it is.

This would be because in the areas they surveyed, the voter registrations are comprised of many more democrats than republicans.

	03-10-2004 09:29									#64
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Current odds on Kerry 3 to 1. So my most important indicator is still Pro-Bush.

	03-10-2004 10:36									#65
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quote: Originally posted by Moral Hazard Current odds on Kerry 3 to 1. So my most important indicator is still Pro-Bush.

Why many people insist on going by this sort of number, which sounds outdated based on the odds Vegas Oddsmakers were giving out on the spot the other day in a news story, its questionable how accurate they actually are. The odds makers are accounting for who is betting and what odds they need to make betting seem attractive to potential betters and fairly even amounts of money on both sides. Given the odds for a bet are in favor of the house, if they can get an equal amount of money on both sides they win no matter what. The odds measure primarily public perception of who is currently likely to win, not necessarily the reality.

	03-10-2004 10:50									#66
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Ah, here we have some explanation as to why Kerry gained in this poll. From www.littlegreenfootballs.com

quote: Newsweek Poll: Stacked? Look at the makeup of Republicans vs. Democrats in Newsweek’s poll from September 11, 2004: NEWSWEEK POLL: Campaign 2004. 391 Republicans (plus or minus 6) 300 Democrats (plus or minus 7) 270 Independents (plus or minus 7) Compare against the same data from the new poll, which Newsweek is using to claim that Bush’s poll lead has “evaporated:” NEWSWEEK POLL: First Presidential Debate. 345 Republicans (plus or minus 6) 364 Democrats (plus or minus 6) 278 Independents (plus or minus 7) Did Newsweek choose a lower percentage of Republicans for the first debate to set up Kerry’s “comeback,” or did they stack the deck with more Democrats in the second poll?

	03-10-2004 11:04									#67
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Or is the author of the article a crazy conspiracy theorist? The numbers for the first poll don't reflect party ID, where Democrats have a 3 or 4% advantage according to Pew, they instead gave the Republians a 6% advantage. So, does that mean Newsweek stacked the deck to create an imaginary convention bounce for the Republicans?

	03-10-2004 11:04									#68
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Holy ****, I was right.

	03-10-2004 11:06									#69
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Converting everything into nice and easy percentages...

In the first Newsweek poll, Republicans made up 40% of those polled, Democrats 31%. Now it's 35% R (-5%), 37% D (+6%). In the second poll, Bush lost 4 points relative to the first, and Kerry gained 4 points. ...I think that the fact that Newsweek oversampled Republicans in the first poll and (slightly) oversampled Democrats in the second can account for the shift.

That said, put me in the "race is tied" category. If we get a bunch more polls like this showing a move toward Kerry in the next week or so, probably even that won't move me out of there unless a majority of the leads are outside the margin of error.

	03-10-2004 11:11									#70
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As I said in the initial debate thread, the internals of all these polls: Gallup, Newsweek, LA Times are ovewhelmingly in Kerry's favor. The horse race is typically slow to catch up. Expect it to change accordingly.

	03-10-2004 11:13									#71
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41.1251661% of statistics is made up. Newsweek sucks.

	03-10-2004 11:14									#72
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo Holy ****, I was right.

About what?

	03-10-2004 11:16									#73
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo 41.1251661% of statistics is made up. Newsweek sucks.

Wrong. 100% of statistics are made up, of course.

	03-10-2004 11:25									#74
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quote: Originally posted by Vlad Antlerkov Wrong. 100% of statistics are made up, of course.

Dude, that 41% was made up, so of course 100% are made up.

	03-10-2004 11:56									#75
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo He probably did. If you did, you would notice Kerry didn't do that great. But I don't think you watched it.

I think you're blind.


[heavy Texas accent]
"I know that! I know Saddam didn't attack us! I know that!!!"
[/heavy Texas accent]

	03-10-2004 11:57									#76
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker I think you're blind. [heavy Texas accent] "I know that! I know Osama Bin Laden didn't attack us! I know that!!!" [/heavy Texas accent]

I think you're the one who is blind. Kerry blew it.

	03-10-2004 11:59									#77
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I think you are blowing someone right now!!!!

	03-10-2004 12:02									#78
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker I think you are blowing someone right now!!!!

Tomorrow, tomorrow. Oh what the **** am I saying.. that's none of your business.

	03-10-2004 12:02									#79
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Great news .

And while I think Kerry will beat or tie Bush in the next 3 (only helping him), I think Cheney is going to beat down Edwards and expose him as the political neophyte that he is. For all these people saying Cheney was the brains of the administration, they sure seem to forgot Cheney's years in the Congress and he's superb debate in 2000 against Lieberman.

	03-10-2004 12:06									#80
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo Tomorrow, tomorrow. Oh what the **** am I saying.. that's none of your business.

Hey, sexually explicit content is forbidden here.

	03-10-2004 12:07									#81
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui I think Cheney is going to beat down Edwards and expose him as the political neophyte that he is. For all these people saying Cheney was the brains of the administration, they sure seem to forgot Cheney's years in the Congress and he's superb debate in 2000 against Lieberman.

It is about somebody, but.... Imran is defending me with that one.

	03-10-2004 12:07									#82
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quote: Did he really say that??

Yep... Cheney actually does have a pretty decent dry wit.

	03-10-2004 12:07									#83
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Hey, sexually explicit content is forbidden here.

ASK YOURSELF THAT DUDE. You are the one bringing it up. My lips are sealed.

	03-10-2004 12:08									#84
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Apparently.

	03-10-2004 12:09									#85
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edwards will eat cheney alive.

	03-10-2004 12:19									#86
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia edwards will eat cheney alive.

How the hell is that possible? How? Edwards will be the one who is eaten alive. I am still waiting for you to explain this to me. Edwards is like the democrat version of Dan Quayle.

	03-10-2004 12:38									#87
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Go Kerry!

	03-10-2004 12:39									#88
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Careful don't trip on the cord when you start to celebratea victory that isn't really there. Al Gore won the first debate in 2000 and the other ones after that but he still lost the election.

	03-10-2004 12:41									#89
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Actually Gore lost the first debate in the polls. That was probably the main thing that gave Bush the election.

	03-10-2004 12:42									#90
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Actually Gore lost the first debate in the polls. That was probably the main thing that gave Bush the election.

http://www.seniorjournal.com/NEWS/2...00GlpDebate.htm

No he didn't... (simple yahoo search).