04-10-2004 04:49									#121
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Gallup's numbers show a huge bounce for Kerry.

Two-Way RV's
Bush Kerry
10/3 49 47
9/26 54 41

Two-way LV's
Bush Kerry
10/3 49 49
9/26 52 44

That's an 11 point bounce on RV's, and an 8 point bounce on LV's.

Since Gallup significantly oversamples Republicans, Kerry probably has a few points lead on RV's.

	04-10-2004 05:09									#122
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What "huge" bounce? I don't really see a huge bounce there. Sorry.

	04-10-2004 05:10									#123
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quote: Originally posted by MrFun Apparently, you do not realize that Bush is a president who has had stronger ties with religious right organizations than some other past Republican presidents. That is NOT moderation.

You support the a growing line of left wing power hungry snobs like John Kerry. That is not moderation.

	04-10-2004 05:13									#124
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quote: What "huge" bounce? I don't really see a huge bounce there. Sorry.

Of course you don't! You'd rather hang yourself than turn left on a street corner!

	04-10-2004 05:15									#125
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quote: Originally posted by Whaleboy Of course you don't! You'd rather hang yourself than turn left on a street corner!

I don't think Bush had a lead to begin with. I said this before. I think this nation is evenly split, but I believe Bush will win the election because some non-partisan registered voters as myself will vote for him instead of Kerry.

	04-10-2004 06:10									#126
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quote: Originally posted by Vlad Antlerkov Nitpick: Election day is 11/2, not 11/3. But yes, I understand and partially agree with the sentiment. (Polls are useful for judging momentum, but that's about it when we're this far out. all IMHO, of course.)

oops girlfriends birthday is nov 4th

*checks to see if my birthday is still tuesday.

	04-10-2004 07:47									#127
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ahhahhaha spanish fruity boy is mad because he knows Bush is going to lose have fun with your bf

Even my lazy ass will get out of the house that day (election day). I'm going to make a life's pledge and never vote for a Republican EVER! w00t!

Edwards is goign to pwn Cheney. He's going to say HALLIBURTION WAS RUN BY CHENEY... and everyone is going to go, "man that guy is an ass... I like edwards"

I smoke too much nOT!@

	04-10-2004 07:48									#128
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Gallup's numbers show a huge bounce for Kerry. Two-Way RV's Bush Kerry 10/3 49 47 9/26 54 41 Two-way LV's Bush Kerry 10/3 49 49 9/26 52 44 That's an 11 point bounce on RV's, and an 8 point bounce on LV's. Since Gallup significantly oversamples Republicans, Kerry probably has a few points lead on RV's.

Did Gallup oversample Republicans this time? They go by Party ID, not Party Registration, which is more fluid and has changed as different candidates become stronger.

	05-10-2004 00:37									#129
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Zogby: has it at Bush 46 - Kerry 45 (two way), Bush 46 - Kerry 43 (multiparty).

quote: Pollster John Zogby: "The close race got even closer. There is some evidence that Kerry’s debate performance and increased clarity on the war has helped him consolidate at least some of the support that he has lost. But undecideds are up to 8 percent and there is still a month to go. There is also no doubt that Ralph Nader is hurting Kerry. The post convention bounce for Bush is over and his biggest hurdle is among undecided voters who give him a 31 percent positive job performance rating and a 69 percent negative rating. Only 13 percent of undecided voters feel that the president deserves re-election (his lowest yet) while 37 percent feel it is time for someone new. Undecideds at 8 percent are high because we don’t push them until later. Five points of these are hard undecideds, two-points use to be with Kerry, and one point with Bush. How will they break in the end? Will they even vote?

All these polls tend to point to one thing - a close race within the margin of errors.

	05-10-2004 02:06									#130
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quote: Originally posted by Sava ahhahhaha spanish fruity boy is mad because he knows Bush is going to lose have fun with your bf

Actually Bush isn't. Check out the Rasmussen poll again.. Bush lost a stunning... -.4%... Kerry is going to lose the election. You must examine the facts real closely please. Then you can talk to me.

quote: Edwards is goign to pwn Cheney. He's going to say HALLIBURTION WAS RUN BY CHENEY... and everyone is going to go, "man that guy is an ass... I like edwards"

He can't because Edwards is an idiot. Cheney is a very smart man. He's going to say Halliburton was run by Cheney? Boohoo, boohoo, boo ****ing hoo.. who the hell cares? Everybody already knows. How much wealth does Kerry have? Six multi-million dollar properties.. how much money does edwards have? FAR MORE THEN CHENEY.

	05-10-2004 02:29									#131
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I think you underestimate Edwards, Giancarlo. The man didn't go from broke-ass white-trash to rich trial lawyer by being an idiot. And BTW, he defeated the Jesse Helm's political machine in North Carolina when he ran for the Senate.

So go on underestimating Edwards like you have been. The man is bright, intelligent, and an expert at shmoozing people over. We'll see on Tuesday.

But I'm sure even after Edwards pwns Cheney and the polls prove it, that you will continue to deny it.

	05-10-2004 02:33									#132
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quote: Originally posted by Sava I think you underestimate Edwards, Giancarlo. The man didn't go from broke-ass white-trash to rich trial lawyer by being an idiot. And BTW, he defeated the Jesse Helm's political machine in North Carolina when he ran for the Senate. So go on underestimating Edwards like you have been. The man is bright, intelligent, and an expert at shmoozing people over. We'll see on Tuesday. But I'm sure even after Edwards pwns Cheney and the polls prove it, that you will continue to deny it.

I think you underestimate Cheney, big time too. Edwards is not very smart. I've seen plenty of lawyers who aren't very smart but have plenty of money.

You are underestimating Cheney big time. Cheney is very cunning, incredibly clever, highly intelligent and incredibly bright. He has a direct way of speaking as I've actually seen him in person when he was going to Italy last summer.

Cheney will PWN Edwards and the polls will prove it.

BTW... I have some very bad news for you Sava...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...4-2004Oct4.html

Bush holds a 5% lead according to that poll.

	05-10-2004 03:00									#133
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Well, I might be under-estimating Cheney... but I've seen him speak. I saw him in the debate in 2000. He didn't come across as all that cunning.

He's not a stupid man... and I do think he's diabolically intelligent. But he's far from charismatic. And this ticket the Democrats have is the perfect 1-2 punch against the Bush ticket.

Kerry is smarter than Bush and pwns Bush in the debate.

Edwards is more charismatic and articulate than Cheney and will pwn in the debate.

Bush might still have an edge, like that poll suggests. But his lead is not strong. Kerry is closing the gap.

Just think back to the 2000 election. Nobody who voted for Gore is going to vote for Bush in 2004. But some non-voters, Nader voters, or disgruntled Republicans like Imran will vote Kerry. That will be the edge Kerry needs and that will be why Kerry is going to win. It's simple, but how can you argue against that reasoning?

	05-10-2004 03:03									#134
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quote: Originally posted by Sava Well, I might be under-estimating Cheney... but I've seen him speak. I saw him in the debate in 2000. He didn't come across as all that cunning.

I've actually seen him in person. Was about five feet away from him. These are things I noticed. He is a great speaker.

quote: And this ticket the Democrats have is the perfect 1-2 punch against the Bush ticket.

That's utter crap and you know it. You know Cheney is a far better speaker then Edwards. Edwards is simplistic like Bush.

quote: Kerry is smarter than Bush and pwns Bush in the debate.

Not totally according to polls. Bush's favorable image actually went up.

quote: Edwards is more charismatic and articulate than Cheney and will pwn in the debate.

NOPE! Not at all.

quote: Bush might still have an edge, like that poll suggests. But his lead is not strong. Kerry is closing the gap.

Not really. Kerry's momentum isn't that fast.

quote: Just think back to the 2000 election. Nobody who voted for Gore is going to vote for Bush in 2004. But some non-voters, Nader voters, or disgruntled Republicans like Imran will vote Kerry. That will be the edge Kerry needs and that will be why Kerry is going to win. It's simple, but how can you argue against that reasoning?

Kerry can't win. Reason... because he is relying on voter blocs that are very weak, and Bush is relying on those who are stronger and he has the support of his party. Gore didn't secure enough support from his own party. You are wrong again. But what else is new? Just I'll remind you it when Bush in his second inauguration.

	05-10-2004 03:04									#135
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We are also not counting on the massive voter registration drives that have occured-there are millions of new voters this election year. Lets see which way they go.

	05-10-2004 03:05									#136
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empty empty words...

I'll mail you some kleenex after the election.

edit: to fezcarlo

	05-10-2004 03:07									#137
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quote: Originally posted by Sava empty empty words... I'll mail you some kleenex after the election. edit: to fezcarlo

I'll mail them back when Kerry makes his concession speech.

	05-10-2004 04:45									#138
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ick

	05-10-2004 05:00									#139
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quote: Originally posted by GePap We are also not counting on the massive voter registration drives that have occured-there are millions of new voters this election year. Lets see which way they go.

Also, what percentage of them actually turn out and vote.

	05-10-2004 05:03									#140
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and what percentage are Republican?

	05-10-2004 05:20									#141
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo Careful don't trip on the cord when you start to celebratea victory that isn't really there. Al Gore won the first debate in 2000 and the other ones after that but he still lost the election.

Forgive me. I'll begin celebrating King George II's victory and America's inevitable conquest of this world soon enough!

	05-10-2004 05:24									#142
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quote: Originally posted by Harry Tuttle and what percentage are Republican?

A minority of them are, if all the information available is any good. BUt more important is the size of these drives in swing states.

	05-10-2004 05:49									#143
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quote: Originally posted by GePap A minority of them are, if all the information available is any good.

In Ohio and Florida, at least, according to a sampling by the NY Times.



But, like I said, turnout is key.

	05-10-2004 05:50									#144
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Zogby, which has been the Democratic outlier so far, has Bush still leading. Washington Post/ ABC has a 5 point lead, so does Pew. Pew also has a 15 point lead for Bush in Battleground States.l

http://people-press.org/reports/tables/227.pdf

One things I noticed that had happened in the polls coming prior to the debates was that Bush was gaining ground in Democratic states such as Maryland, New Jersey, and New York. Debates typically have the effect at rallying their own party behind their candidate, so what we could be seeing is those Kerry voters who may have strayed returning to Kerry.

In any case, stay tuned to www.realclearpolitics.com for the averages of all the polls done.

	05-10-2004 05:59									#145
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quote: In any case, stay tuned to www.realclearpolitics.com for the averages of all the polls done.

Is averaging them intended to take out the statistical error/bias/flawed methadology?

Heh. Two wrongs don't make a right, but maybe the average of multiple wrongs....

	05-10-2004 06:09									#146
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its how we do it in science

JM

	05-10-2004 06:17									#147
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Um. How does that work? If you have one poll of 600 people and one of 3000, and you just average the percentages, doesn't that add too much weight to the 600 poll?

	05-10-2004 06:20									#148
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quote: Originally posted by Jon Miller its how we do it in science

Perhaps, but it seems rather silly to me, considering the sampling differences, different methadologies, different phrasing of the questions, pushing leaners vs. not, two-way races vs multiparty, the occasional outlier poll, taken at different dates, with different margins of error, etc, to tell me, what? That the race is close?

I already know that.

	05-10-2004 06:25									#149
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quote: Originally posted by dv8ed Um. How does that work? If you have one poll of 600 people and one of 3000, and you just average the percentages, doesn't that add too much weight to the 600 poll?

If you're just averaging them, yep. Especially as (assuming no bias) the 3000 one likely going to be more accurate than the 600 one.

Now, if you have the internal of the two polls, and the methadologies were the same, you could try to compute a figure weighting the two appropriately, although that wouldn't really lower the margin of error very much. (going from a 3000 size poll to a 3600 size poll only reduces the margin of error by about 00.15%)

	05-10-2004 06:29									#150
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quote: Originally posted by Jon Miller its how we do it in science JM

You left out the "pseudo-"

-Drachasor