07-10-2004 17:31									#1
	Invasion date delay Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

okay, this needs some prodding, it seems, not too many comments were posted on this question.

As can be seen here, I would like to delay embarking for 1 turn as opposed to the GoW plans (so turn 240(1250 AD), not 239 (1240 AD)). That will mean we've got 53 marines. We could also delay to turn 241, in which case we've got time to upgrade all our inf to MI and ship those to Lego.

To be complete: invasion is 3 turns later. So 242, 243, or 244. Lego will have tanks in 242.

So:
- no delay (turn 239, next turn), with either extensive chaining, or too few marines
- turn 240, with marines, and possibly chaining of 8 MI
- turn 241, with all MI, but facing more tanks.

DeepO

	07-10-2004 17:35									#2
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Hum, a bit of a correction: with delay to turn 241, we've got 8 MI per chaining transport. We would need to delay to 242 to have all MI.

DeepO

	07-10-2004 18:52									#3
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Presumably that 239 rather than 240 for the previous plan is because you want the extra turn of slack in transport movements in case we need to go around some Lego units, since we can do the crossing directly leaving in turn 240.

No need to wait for all MI - Lego aren't going to have enough tanks to take out 8 MI, so as long as we can have that many there first turn, we can upgrade the in-transport infs in situ. But AFAICS we can chain one boat-load of MI to join the invasion fleet turn 242 (the turn before the marine attack) whichever turn we leave, as long as we have the empty transports ready in time.

We certainly don't want to go with too few marines, and it looks like we're not going to have enough until turn 240 at the earliest, so we don't have much choice about a delay - but we should tell GoW fairly soon (and point out that it's because they were late getting Amphibious Warfare to us).

SO I say we go the turn we have enough marines. It'd be nice to have the MI, and if we can get one load of them through chaining, so much the better. But I wouldn't want to put off the invasion any more just to sail with MI in place - I think we lose more than we gain in that scenario.

	07-10-2004 19:00									#4
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Doesn't the slack in movement make sense to you? I tried, but there is no way to sail to Lego in 2 turns, unless you start the embarkment with the transports just outside Hurricane and follow the most direct route. As there are subs cruising our waters (or we can assume that), we would only give away our invasion plans one turn early.

For the marines: that should be turn 240 then. And the reason embarkment is on turn 240 instead of on turn 238, is both that we are taking more marines (2 turns production worth), and have received the tech later than expected.

But I fully agree we should tell this to GoW asap, if at all possible today!

DeepO

	07-10-2004 22:07									#5
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I think 241 is the right delay now.

	08-10-2004 03:50									#6
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241.

Now I've got access again (dial-up for now) I see I should contact GoW now!

	08-10-2004 04:24									#7
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OK, I sent a quick note to Panzer with a more polite follow-up.

Basically I said we're looking at a two-turn delay.

I'm about to start catching up and looking at the nice map on the GAUL thread. I didn't give dates or numbers to GoW as I think we were talking about launch, rather than arrival dates.

	08-10-2004 04:50									#8
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241

	08-10-2004 06:19									#9
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Good message to GoW, CH. We might want to follow that up the coming days with more on our plans. I'll see if I can put some together for them (once we settle on a final plan, of course )

As to delaying it to 241, instead of 240: No problem whatsoever for me. Economically, it makes planning a lot easier.

DeepO

	08-10-2004 20:41									#10
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Okay, GoW wants 1 turn only. The question now boils down to if we want to press for turn 241, instead of turn 240 or not.

We've got a case, but unless we want to press them, we shouldn't mention it to them.
- turn 240 was the original plan, not turn 239 as what they planned for
- Marines coming late is the main reason we're late
- with that extra turn, we can threaten another city down South. We are doing our best to fork 4 cities, while they only fork 2. They would better use that turn to build transports, and do the same as us.

I'm for pressing them. But gently

DeepO

	09-10-2004 05:28									#11
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(Forgive me if this is the chaining that has been previously suggested. I forget where it was and what it was consisted of.)

I think we can go on 240, so change my mind. Vox may be a problem, but we can do without them I think. Lego has Tanks so it might not be a great idea to give them "free" upgrades on turn 1 anyways.

Transports from Hurricane being short rushed and/or disbanded unit (Rifle) if necessary to get 1 turn Transports.

Build/Reserve 3 transports for chaining purposes. 1,2,3 need to be empty on turn 240 and sail with the main fleet.

Turn 241 we build a Transport(5). Fill 5 with Marines and chain to 1. 1,2,3 stay with fleet.

Turn 242 we build a Transport(6). Fill 6 with units (MI?). 6 chains to 5, 5 chains to 2. 1,2,3 stay with fleet.

Turn 243 we build a Transport(7). Fill 7 with units (MI/Marines/Tanks). 7 chains to 6, 6 chains to 5, 5 chains to 3. 1,2,3 are ready for invasion. That gives us 24 units (up to 16 MI right?) we can ship across.

	09-10-2004 06:42									#12
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Aeson, I saw it a little differently what chaining is concerned. I proposed 2 options for 240 (but I should be more clearer in these proposals, I'm aware they get cluttered in to much text. Sorry.)

Option 1:
- Sail in 240. Leave 1 transport behind. All marines and other stuff already build on our transports. One transport empty.
- on 241, one transport chains 8 marine to the fleet, and off we go. We can't get to MI, as computers are discovered in 241, so upgraded MI are present in 242

Option 2:
- Sail in 240. Leave 4 transports behind (or build new ones while we're waiting). Leave 4 transports empty in our fleet.
- in 241, 1 transport chains 8 marines to the fleet. It will stay behind, as well as one other empty transport.
- in 242, 2 transports leave Hurricane for the empty transports (which might not be there, by the way, as Lego will certainly go for our supply lines if they are unprotected. They have a sub nearby that has run from our detection grid), with a couple of marines if we want, and the rest, minimum 8, MI. The ex-empties chain to our fleet, and off we go.

There is of course another option, where we would only use 2 chaining transports, and chain 8 M in turn 241, and 8 MI in 242. In 241, we can have a total of 53 marines (without pollution), which is slightly less than the 56 requested. In 242, we can get 61 if wanted (possibly 62 even, but I'm counting on pollution eating at least one)

Your option of chaining with 3 transports is not necessary, as in turn 242 everything we need is built, we don't have to wait until 243. Meanwhile, those empty transports in the middle of the sea are at risk... if the BS stack would go for Hurricane instead of protecting the Lego coast, it would most definately spot our empties. The same applies for subs, of which we know at least 1 of them is currently in the neighbourhood.

After invasion, chaining becomes something else, and can give instant reinforcements to the front. However, I would like to have some protection close when that's needed, and don't risk the empties in the middle of the sea. The problem with a chain is that Lego only needs 1 sub take out 1 chain, to stop the whole line from working... a minimum of protection will prevent that (e.g. 1 sub+1 DD per empty transport). As a result, we might need to consider building a couple of subs once our marines are built, or at least retreat the ones left over from the initial attack.

I would however, whatever the outcome, build one more transport in turn 242. The rest of the chain is present or not, in case it is, we can use it for 8 more MI, without costing us anything. But only count on this as a lucky bonus, not as a tactic, as the risk simply is too big.

Oh, chaining when embraking on turn 241:
1 transport in 242 will give us 8 MI in the force (or fewer, if we want more than 53 marines). 2 transports will give up to 16 MI. There is no way Lego can interfere with these chains, as there are no empties in the water until after the units are sent across.

DeepO

	09-10-2004 22:17									#13
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If we could have a chain in place on the day of invasion it would help a lot. We wouldn't have to decide what to chain across until after we knew if we had been able to take the city or not. If we fall just short of taking the city we could send over some more Marines. If we do take the city we could instead send more Tanks/MI.

We might lose a couple of empty Transports in trying this. I think it's worthwhile though because any Transport sunk in the chain is likely a Transport/DD not sunk in the fleet. If Lego's BB stack is delayed a turn by attacking our chain, that would make it impossible for them to blockade Quanto's Harbor too. Any Submarines that attack our chain only do so at even odds and again, won't be attacking our fleet.

We also have to reserve 3 Transports in the fleet as empties. If we have enough Transports for the units we want to send across when the fleet leaves in addition to those 3 empties (so 16), it isn't a tradeoff though. It will give our fleet up to 3 extra defenders if the chain is broken, and if the chain isn't broken, 24 more units of types (MI/Marine) that couldn't have been sent with the fleet.

	09-10-2004 22:34									#14
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Perhaps since we'd have 3 extra "defenders" in the fleet, we could leave a DD behind at each leg of the chain for protection? Or better yet, build DD's from Tornado/Blizzard (short rushed) to cover the chain "1 turn behind".

So it would look like this:

Transports from Hurricane being short rushed and/or disbanded unit (Rifle) if necessary to get 1 turn Transports. DD's from Tornado (and/or Blizzard) being short rushed and/or disbanded unit (Rifle) if necessary to get a DD built on turn 241 and 242.

Build/Reserve 3 transports for chaining purposes. 1,2,3 need to be empty on turn 240 and sail with the main fleet. Reserve 1 DD(4) for protecting chain.

Turn 241 we build a Transport(5) and DD(6). Fill 5 with Marines and chain to 1. 1,2,3 stay with fleet. 4 covers 5. 6 moves out towards the chain.

Turn 242 we build a Transport(7) and DD(8). Fill 7 with units (MI?). 7 chains to 5. 5 chains to 2. 1,2,3 stay with fleet. 4 covers 5. 6 covers 7. 8 moves out towards the chain.

Turn 243 we build a Transport(9). Fill 9 with units (MI/Marines/Tanks). 9 chains to 7, 7 chains to 5, 5 chains to 3. 1,2,3 are full for invasion. 4 covers 5. 6 covers 7. 8 covers 9.

This gives us DD cover at each leg, while dropping the fleet number by 1 DD with overall fleet numbers of ships up 2 from original plans.

We could instead build a DD on 240 as well, but that would cut into the number of Marines we know will be able to make it to the fleet, because they sail with the fleet. After the fleet sails, we can only hope future builds make it to the fleet. So cutting into the number of future Marines/MI built, to make it more likely (and in the case of the Transport builds, possible at all) that future Marines/MI can be shipped across, offers far more positive value.

	10-10-2004 20:07									#15
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So does it look like we can do T240? If so, I'll confirm to Panzer at GoW.

	11-10-2004 14:52									#16
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Having a chain would be best, of course, the question is more one of where, and how much resources we want to put into it. I would feel a lot more comfortable if we could destroy the BS stack before starting one, specially becuase we will automatically count on that chain, once it is there, to reinforce our troops.

The other reason is a question on what we build in the few turns right after our marines are ready. Bombers, fighters, defenders for a couple of turns, means we don't need a chain as we have nothing to ship to Legoland. And perhaps we don't need bombers that urgently, but the others we do need. We can't trust either ND or GoW, and we will be leaving Stormia relatively unprotected. And Lego has bombers, which is going to be our main problem when protecting transports, much more then the BS stack.

PS: subs take out transports 15 out of every 16 times (both vets). Transports only defend with 4, subs have 8 attack. That's not a risk, that's more like a certitude

PSS: I'm going to play the save later tonight, I've got to run. The WE has been hell, I had no time to spend on this game... and I don't want to rush with these critical decisions. So allow me time to think on all of this, including how we can get extra transports and DDs without paying too much. Blizzard and Hurricane will be switched to transports in the build phase of next turn, which means an extra 2 of them right away (3 requested, so that's close allready). I'm very hesitant to use rifles to shortrush transports, as I think we're short on defenders as it is. But we've got a couple of MI left, and if necessary can use a worker to give the initial 2 shields (the rest can be done with gold).

Next turn, we should have the CIA built, and can check how much money we need to spend on inserting a spy, and how much money we have for extra rushes. If GoW goes for radio, cash won't be a problem, even if we can't be foolish in how to use it.

DeepO

	20-10-2004 03:40									#17
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What does the current GoW crisis and potential turn play by Trip do to this timeline?

	20-10-2004 04:07									#18
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Well it won't do much for their build schedules if MM is needed. They wouldn't be setting off like us next turn, so it might not affect the timing of attack, but if the right units aren't built ...

	20-10-2004 15:15									#19
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Well, if Trip plays like he says, not moving any unit... That would automatically move everything one turn behind, I would guess. It could be that all the ships are already present, and only need to be loaded (normally next turn), but I would expect these still need to be moved from somewhere.

We would be prepared, though... as long as we know whether GoW delays or not, we can adapt.

DeepO

	20-10-2004 20:24									#20
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So Panzer, with vocal reluctance expressed on the main forum, managed to play the turn.

I need to clarify this from Panzer:

quote: DDay is 1260 AD, right? This is the turn that we land on Lego's shores? We are going to have to declare war in 1250 AD (2 turns before DDay) to sink some sentry ships. Am I right in my thinking?

Should I say that it is 1265, not 1260? Are we still in fact working to the following timetable, as sent to GoW by Vulture? :

quote: 238 1230 GS southern task force loads up and moves out from T-5 to T-4 239 1240 GS South moved from T-4 to T-3 240 1250 GS Northern group sets sail, GS South moves (T-3->T-2) GoW group sets sail 241 1255 GS North and South move (T-2->T-1) 242 1260 All groups at T positions, hoping not to get to slaughtered by Lego 243 1265 D-Day. Amphibious invasions by GS and GoW

	20-10-2004 22:13									#21
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This is, as I see it, the time table now. It's slightly adapted from your quote, but not too much different.

quote: 239 1240 GS Deep South moved from T-4 to T-3 GS South and North in port 240 1250 GS South and North sail, with empty transports in North. GS Declares war, and attacks pickets. GoW group sets sail (?) GoW declares war, and destroys pickets? (one turn before really necessary, but for the diversion) 241 1255 GS North and South move (T-2->T-1) GS North gets first chaining reinforcements 242 1260 All groups at T positions, (hopefully with extra chaining) 243 1265 D-Day. Amphibious invasions by GS and GoW.

GoW is now proposing to declare war one turn later. They can do this, as they can reach their targets in 2 turns, instead of in 3 like we do. However, it would be best for us if war is declared simulatenously.

quote: Should I say that it is 1265, not 1260? Are we still in fact working to the following timetable, as sent to GoW by Vulture?

Well, more or less... end dates remain unchanged, only specifics have changed.

DeepO

	21-10-2004 14:21									#22
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OK, message sent.

I shall be away from Fri 22nd to Thurs 28th. A sudden opportunity to spend a few days in beautiful Lisbon has arisen which needs to be grasped I expect to have some Poly access (our hostess is a bit of a civver ) but it may be limited. I asked GoW to copy DeepO on any messages in case I don't react in time and likewise, DeepO, if I haven't sent something urgent, you may need to drop GoW a note if necessary.

Whether GoW manage to hold themselves together long enough to make the party though remains to be seen ...

	21-10-2004 15:21									#23
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CH, enjoy the trip! And no worries, I'll keep the ambassador's chair warm for you

DeepO

	21-10-2004 15:25									#24
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Have fun CH. Pity it is too late to watch the Euro championship...