31-10-2004 09:33									#271
	Support Apolyton

The Danish media is wrong, the past couple weeks have definitely been in Kerry's favor (barring a couple days of the Mary Cheney barrage). The tracking polls:

http://www.nowchannel.com/tracking/

	31-10-2004 10:12									#272
	Put an end to popups!

all i know is that badnarik will do extremely well in the western states (AZ 2 - 3%, NM 3 - 5%, NEV 2 - 3%, CA 1%, WIS 2- 3%)

	31-10-2004 10:31									#273
	Get a bigger avatar today!

quote: Originally posted by Ramo The Danish media is wrong, the past couple weeks have definitely been in Kerry's favor (barring a couple days of the Mary Cheney barrage). The tracking polls:

One can find a poll to support anyone's personal agenda.

	31-10-2004 10:37									#274
	Full PM-box? Change here!

And if you take them together, there's been a noticable trend in favor of Kerry. Hence, the link.

	31-10-2004 11:53									#275
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

Yeah, on Fox News today, they were showing how Bush's lead (that they had) was shrinking greatly.

	31-10-2004 16:34									#276
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: Originally posted by Ramo And if you take them together, there's been a noticable trend in favor of Kerry. Hence, the link.

Lets do a poll on the number of polls that show whichever candidate is ahead.

	31-10-2004 16:58									#277
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

I'm operating under the assumption that ALL the polling is showing Bush ahead by 5-10 points more then he will actualy get in the Election due to several factors. What looks like a Tie the night before will be a strong Kerry Victory on Election night with >55% popular vote.

1 - The highest Voter turn out in a generation
2 - Poor Polling of young voters like myself who lack home phones, which prevents pollers from even realizing that 1 is coming
3 - Independents/Undesideds going for Kerry

	31-10-2004 17:47									#278
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 243 Bush 280

Strong Kerry (88)
Weak Kerry (103)
Barely Kerry (52)
Exactly tied (15)
Barely Bush (62)
Weak Bush (71)
Strong Bush (147)
Needed to win: 270

http://www.electoral-vote.com

	31-10-2004 17:55									#279
	Remove this text

Averaged Nonpartisan Polls: Kerry 248 Bush 263

Strong Kerry (84)
Weak Kerry (106)
Barely Kerry (58)
Exactly tied (27)
Barely Bush (45)
Weak Bush (71)
Strong Bush (147)
Needed to win: 270

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct30z.html

	31-10-2004 18:23									#280
	Suffering from ads?

Asuming Kerry takes NewJersy which the site says is practicaly guaranteed and that everything else goes to who its currently leaning towards then Kerry needs to do do one of 3 upsets to win.

Win Ohio
Win Michigan
Win any 2 or the following Colorado/Iowa/West Virginia

Ohio is the one most likly to happen though I belive its likly all of them will happen and their will be even deeper erosion into the "Weakly Bush" states such as Arizona ware I live.

	31-10-2004 21:36									#281
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

Kerry WILL win Michigan. It would be an upset if he did not win Michigan. He needs more than that, though.

He appears to be solidifying his leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota as well. He's pulled back ahead in the latest polls in Iowa and New Mexico. And he appears to be poised to pull New Hampshire to the Democratic column.

This would give him all the states Gore won in 2000, plus New Hampshire. He'd still be 6 EC votes short of 270.

You can forget West Virgina or Colorado--not gonna happen. Nevada too. Not out of the realm of possibility, but highly unlikely--which speaks partially to the weakness of Kerry as a candidate, as WV traditionally is a solid Democratic state (2000 notwithstanding).

He needs Ohio or Florida. Ohio seems more likely; most polls over the past few weeks have shown him in the lead. However, like in 2000 Florida, Bush's state campaign manager is also the Secretary of State, who has tried some various registration/voting shenanigans. And Florida, well, Florida is still ****ed. You know some weird **** is gonna go down; hell, it already has, with 70,000 vanished absentee ballots.

It all comes down to Ohio. With Ohio, Kerry could afford to lose 14 EC he currently has (say, Wisconsin and New Hampshire). With Florida, he could affording to lose up to 21 EC he currently has (WI, NH, NM).

	31-10-2004 21:45									#282
	Increase Your PM Length

It looks more and more like a Bush win, which means I'm going to lose $100

	31-10-2004 21:45									#283
	Tired of ads?

I forgot about WVA's faithless elector, which takes 1 vote away from the Bush column should he win the state. I wouldn't be so quick to write off WVA. The Dems still hold a huge registration advantage, and they've run an excellent ground game there. It hasn't been polled very much during the election, either. Could be an early Kerry surprise.

Also, CO's 9 votes may not all go to the winner. There's a measure on the ballot to make it so CO's votes split between the candidates based on percentage of the vote. If the measure passes, it's effective for this election. So even if Bush wins CO, Kerry could get 3-4 EVs from it, should the measure pass.

	31-10-2004 21:47									#284
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

The latest polling on that Colorado amendment is that it will lose (albeit by a narrow margin). Moreover, there have been vows of a court challenge if it did pass.

	31-10-2004 21:47									#285
	Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: Originally posted by Gangerolf It looks more and more like a Bush win, which means I'm going to lose $100

Why do you say that? The current poll data all shows a trend to Kerry. Even Fox's poll shows that, which Bush's 5-point lead shrinking to a dead heat.

Zogby's state poll numbers give Kerry a 6-4 edge in the 10 battleground states. And given the predicted massive turnout and that undecideds always break for the challenger, I'd say it's looking more and more like a Kerry win.

	31-10-2004 21:51									#286
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Right now... any "predictions" of victory are just wishful thinking. Depending on some of the Polls, Bush is a lock, and others show Kerry is a lock... Even the electorial sites that base their predictions on the latest state surveys disagree on the number of votes...

So sit back and enjoy the ride. Predictions are a waste of time at this point...

	31-10-2004 21:52									#287
	Put an end to popups!

quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Why do you say that?

Many of the polls show a solid Bush lead.

But what you say makes sense and I hope you are right.

	31-10-2004 21:59									#288
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by Gangerolf Many of the polls show a solid Bush lead.

Gallup has shown one, but their flawed method has been dissected many times. Polling more Republicans than Democrats will skew any poll, and it doesn't have any basis on actual reality when it comes to election turnout among the parties (since even when Republicans have won, the Democratic percentage of voters has been slightly higher). Newsweek's Friday poll (which has since shrunk to a tie) had the same flawed method.

But Ming is right, polls aren't predictors of voting, just indicators of current public sentiment. Lot's of people aren't being taken into account in these polls, so it's still a toss-up race.

	31-10-2004 22:06									#289
	Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov so it's still a toss-up race.

While I agree with you 100%, and that I think it will be close... I've read some articales showing how it could still be a blow out for EITHER side. The possibillity is still there for either candidate to get the supposed "mandate" of the people. This should be an interesting one. Since I think both candidates suck big time, and really wish it could work out that neither wins, it's hard to really care at this point who is going to win.

Either way, we get 4 years of a moron, so it's tough to really care

	31-10-2004 22:09									#290
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

Well, "toss-up" just means we don't know who will win, not that it MUST be a dead heat. My prediction is that, if Bush wins, it's by another hairbreadth's margin. But if Kerry wins, it will be a decisive victory thanks to the mobilization.

	31-10-2004 22:13									#291
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Well, "toss-up" just means we don't know who will win, not that it MUST be a dead heat. My prediction is that, if Bush wins, it's by another hairbreadth's margin. But if Kerry wins, it will be a decisive victory thanks to the mobilization.

Now you're just doing the wishful thinking stuff. Some of the scenarios laid out show that either be the closest election in history with either side just barely winning, or that either side could end up with the "mandate of the people"

I find it interesting that Bush is leading in the poll here at Apolyton. Anti Bush threads/posts out number the anti Kerry stuff by at least a three to one margin. I would have assumed that Kerry would have won any poll thanks to the non Americans.

But I guess that just proves how close this one will probably be.

	31-10-2004 22:13									#292
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Kerry has a double digit lead in Florida's early voting. He's also leading in Ohio. Don't know if that means much, though.

	31-10-2004 22:16									#293
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: Originally posted by Ming I find it interesting that Bush is leading in the poll here at Apolyton. Anti Bush threads/posts out number the anti Kerry stuff by at least a three to one margin.

This is a poll of who you think will win. Kerry is actually doing better here than on national polls, which show only 36% believe he will win, as opposed to 53% of Americans thinking Bush will win. I think this has to do with a lot of people who are voting for Bush having either low expecations of their fellow Americans or expecting the GOP to steal the election again.

	31-10-2004 22:17									#294
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara or expecting the GOP to steal the election again.

Give it up guys... Gore lost... time to move on

	31-10-2004 22:22									#295
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: Originally posted by Ming Now you're just doing the wishful thinking stuff.

No, it's not just wishful thinking. Kerry and the Dem's have huge registration advantage. Early indicators of turnout are that it will also be huge, something which almost always favors the challenger and/or the Dems.

So Kerry's got the mobilization thing down. But victory depends on out-mobilizing the Republicans. If Bush can really get a huge turnout of his people to offset the Dems, he can win, but it will have to be close. If he fails to get enough turnout to win, then it's likely the Dem mobilization will bowl him over.

I don't forsee, given the huge Dem turnout engine, any way Bush can win in a huge romp.

quote: I find it interesting that Bush is leading in the poll here at Apolyton. Anti Bush threads/posts out number the anti Kerry stuff by at least a three to one margin. I would have assumed that Kerry would have won any poll thanks to the non Americans.

Ben K made the same mistake. The thread's poll isn't asking people who they would vote for, but who they think will win. You got a large number of Kerry backers who are convinced that the Republicans are going steal the election no matter what. While I don't know about that, I myself voted for Bush in this poll, because 3 weeks ago I thought he was more likely to win. Were I to vote today, I'd vote Kerry. Considering this isnt' a poll that can guage the fluidity of the race (It's been open since Oct. 8 and people can't change their votes), I wouldn't put any stock in what it's saying at all.

	31-10-2004 22:37									#296
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov No, it's not just wishful thinking... I don't forsee, given the huge Dem turnout engine, any way Bush can win in a huge romp.

The fact that you can't acknowledge that chance that Bush can win in a huge romp and that your candidate can only lose a close one is just that... wishful thinking.

I'm not saying it won't happen that way... but many experts have laid out different scenarios (based on the wildly swinging state polls) that show either candidate could still get that mandate. At this point, anything could still happen... even a Bush romp.

	31-10-2004 22:47									#297
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

There won't be a Bush romp in popular votes. Everyone who the polls are ignoring, or don't take into account overwhelmingly favor Kerry. The big one is undecideds, who traditionally favor challengers and give Bush absolutely abysmal approval ratings. Newly registered voters, who are left out in most LV screens, favor Kerry by a 10-15% margin. Voters who only use cell phones favor Kerry by a similar margin. Early voters who are turning out in unprecedented rates are consistently disproportionately Democratic. If there's a romp, it will definitely be in Kerry's favor.

Electoral votes are another matter entirely, and could swing easily.

	31-10-2004 22:49									#298
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by Ramo Electoral votes are another matter entirely, and could swing easily.

That's right

Anything can still happen at this point...

	31-10-2004 22:53									#299
	Tired of ads?

Wednesday morning we'll wake up to tanks in the streets and helicopters flying overhead, with Ashcroft proclaiming the Kingdom of Gilead and announcing the ascention of King Bush the First.

I really don't want anything to happen.

	31-10-2004 22:58									#300
	Suffering from ads?

quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Wednesday morning we'll wake up to tanks in the streets and helicopters flying overhead, with Ashcroft proclaiming the Kingdom of Gilead and announcing the ascention of King Bush the First.

The nice thing about the military is that they'd *never* go along with that.

-Drachasor