01-11-2004 05:20									#361
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

HI will defintely not be close. I can't imagine otherwise. The last legitimate poll showed the race tied at 43. The incumbent rule means that Kerry will pick up the rest of the slack.

As for Iowa, early voting is so far has been Kerry 52, Bush 41.
http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/p...9/41030009/1001

NM has been trending back to Kerry in the past couple days (i.e., ARG, Zogby). I would not say that it's in Bush's column. And there's the Richardson factor, as well as a potentially large number of hispanics that are hard to poll, that favor Kerry by large margins.

The 2000 margins in NM, Iowa, and to a lesser extent MI, were all very close, BTW.

	01-11-2004 05:22									#362
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by DanS I don't think Nevada and Virginia are in play. Considering that Gore only lost to Bush by 3 points, and the subsequent job losses, everybody knew Ohio was in play. In any event, here is the Pew Center's Poll. I place a lot of confidence in the Pew Center's polling. http://people-press.org/reports/dis...p3?ReportID=232

yeah but we need state by state polls. because there are only a few states that matter. national polls are worthless.

	01-11-2004 05:24									#363
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Note that they're tied among RV's in the Pew poll. I think turnout will confound lots of pollsters' LV models.

NV is definitely in play. SUSA showed the race tied, Ras showed Kerry down by two, Zogby showed Kerry down by 4. The all-important incumbent rule, plus unexpetected turnout, could put Kerry over the top.

VA is a longshot, but defintely not impossible.

	01-11-2004 05:25									#364
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

I DanS'ed about Nevada. It seems like an uphill battle for Kerry.

	01-11-2004 05:28									#365
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

quote: I think turnout will confound lots of pollsters' LV models.

This seems like wishful thinking to me. You might be right, but you're probably wrong.

	01-11-2004 05:29									#366
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

Why do you trust Pew so much, again?

quote: New Pew poll shows Kerry up 1 in RV (none / 0) Of course they add a good helping of LV bias, and then even more "assigning" of undecideds to Bush to come up with the 51-48 number that they headline. But here's the internal data: 46 Kerry - 45 Bush in RV (up from 45-45 last week) According to their "LV", they warp this into 48 Bush - 45 Kerry. Garbage. Note this poll is a bit older than others: 27-30th. Look at the incredibly bogus Party-ID: 37 R, 35 D, 23 I Nice! If you use the internal data of party-prefs: Reps: 93-4- Dems: 6-90- Inds: 44-48-2 And apply the 2000 exit poll 39D-35R-26I: Kerry = .39*90 + .35 * 4 + .26 * 48 = 49.0 Bush = .39*6 + .35 * 93 + .26 * 44 = 46.3 Yep, Pew data actually shows Kerry 49, Bush 46.3 Nice headline, guys. ALSO: Even with the skewed sampling they use, the internal data also has: Kerry 48 - Bush 45 in Battleground states.

Another poll using a Republican-heavy sample with no apparent basis.

In 2000, Pew had Bush up 49-47 over Gore just before the election. Bush underperformed on that model in the election, and Gore overperformed.

	01-11-2004 05:31									#367
	Put an end to popups!

Cook (of The Cook Report) said that he's never seen anything like the enthusiasm to vote this year. I have a far more limited experience, but I think he's right.

Last edited by Ramo on 01-11-2004 at 05:41

	01-11-2004 05:32									#368
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Hmmm.. misread the article. Make that Kerry up by one, rather than tied.

	01-11-2004 05:32									#369
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by DanS I DanS'ed about Nevada. It seems like an uphill battle for Kerry.

Kerry has a great shot at taking my state. More democrats than Republicans have voted in the 2 largest counties. Although the non party or 3rd party voters are still up in the air. It's hard to say who they vote for.

These are actual figures from early voting. Not polls.

	01-11-2004 05:37									#370
	Suffering from ads?

The bottom line is that Kerry is in a better position both in terms of the popular vote polls and EC map than Gore was at this point 4 years ago. And given that he has the advantage of being a challenger against an incumbent with mid-40s approval ratings who can't seem to break 48% in the polls, and that the Democrats are mounting their largest turnout engine ever, I'd say the odds are with Kerry going into the last 24 hours.

	01-11-2004 05:39									#371
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

actually I was wrong about Washoe country. The repubicans did creep up past the dems in early voting.

Total


33025
13974 13992
5059

first number is total. second is dems. third is repugs and last is others

but in Clark country nearly 10000 more democrats than republicans have voted (this was a few days ago, let me find up to date numbers)

	01-11-2004 05:41									#372
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

That doesn't say who they're voting for, though. That's a dead heat, and if the undecideds break for Kerry even slightly, he's ahead there. Any early voting numbers from 2000?

	01-11-2004 05:49									#373
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

The internals to the Pew poll show that Bush has more strength of support than he did 4 years while Kerrey has less strength of support than Gore. To hold your position, you have to believe that the difference will be made up by Bush-haters. Not impossible, to be sure.

	01-11-2004 05:49									#374
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov That doesn't say who they're voting for, though. That's a dead heat, and if the undecideds break for Kerry even slightly, he's ahead there. Any early voting numbers from 2000?

yep. but it wouldn't be right to release the actual votes. . that could sway future voters.

I'm willing to bet more republicans voted democrats than democrats voted republican. just a feeling

and as I mentioned before. It does not show how 3rd party or non party voters voted. That's the big question mark.

Even if the republicans do narrowly take Washoe county Kerry could easily win. That county is many, many times smaller than my county. And my county voted for Al Gore in 2000.

The reason why a narrow republican victory is important is because the republicans need to win BIG in the other Nevada counties in order to win the state. Something they did do in 2000.

	01-11-2004 05:54									#375
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

quote: Originally posted by DanS The internals to the Pew poll show that Bush has more strength of support than he did 4 years while Kerrey has less strength of support than Gore. To hold your position, you have to believe that the difference will be made up by Bush-haters. Not impossible, to be sure.

Not only not impossible, but most probable. As Zogby pointed out, this is Bush vs. Not Bush. While it's clear overall opinion of JK has improved a lot among Democrats since the convention, there's never been much question that this election is more about beating Bush.

Elections with incumbents are referendums on the incumbent. An incumbent who's got a 49%-46% unfavorable-favorable rating, as Bush does now, is in deep, deep trouble.

	01-11-2004 05:54									#376
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: I'm willing to bet more republicans voted democrats than democrats voted republican. just a feeling

All of the polling that I have seen suggests the opposite.

	01-11-2004 05:57									#377
	Get a bigger avatar today!

That's probably true, but I think that more Bush2000 voters are voting for Kerry than Gore2000 voters are voting for Bush.

	01-11-2004 05:57									#378
	Full PM-box? Change here!

quote: Originally posted by DanS All of the polling that I have seen suggests the opposite.

why would that be? What right minded democrat would vote for Bush? Actually I wonder what right minded republican would vote for Bush . I certainly didn't. I'm not a republican, but I usually vote republican.

	01-11-2004 05:59									#379
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

quote: Not only not impossible, but most probable.

As Pew points out, Bush's strength of support for reelect is equal to The Reagan's. That's a strong fortress to breach.

quote: why would that be? What right minded democrat would vote for Bush?

I guess those Democrats who think terrorism is the most important issue. Or a veteran, etc.

	01-11-2004 06:00									#380
	Support Apolyton

But I'd bet the strength of opposition to his re-election is far greater than in Reagan's case.

Last edited by Ramo on 01-11-2004 at 06:08

	01-11-2004 06:01									#381
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by DanS As Pew points out, Bush's strength of support for reelect is equal to The Reagan's. That's a strong fortress to breach.

That's ingoring all the other factors of what's going on. At this point in 1984, Reagan was creaming Mondale in the polls and had a much higher favorable rating.

Incumbents with approval ratings in the mid-40s lose. That's an even stronger fortress to breach.

	01-11-2004 06:03									#382
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Yep, no incumbent with Bush's numbers has ever won the Presidency.

	01-11-2004 06:14									#383
	Increase the size of your Attachments

I'd like to believe Kerry is going to win but I fear it's all just wishful thinking.

We just had an election here which all the pundits and polls were saying was too close to call and then the government romped home. Bush could do the same.

When I look at all the polls posted here I don't see Bush obviously in trouble.

	01-11-2004 06:27									#384
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

With two days to go the latest polls are showing Bush winning Ohio but Kerry taking Pennsylvania and Florida. Nevada and New Hampshire are a dead heat and there are eight states with a whopping 99 electoral votes which are barely in one side or the other. Nation wide polling shows Bush 48%, Kerry 49%, Nader just below 1%, and 2% undecided. Historically a President facing reelection almost never gets more then +/-1 from his polling numbers so we can expect Bush to get a max of 49% of the vote while the rest go for Kerry (excepting Nader's 0.8%).

Everything is coming down to voter turn out though and those eight states which are just barely leaning one direction or the other could swing either way.

	01-11-2004 06:31									#385
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

The latest CNN/Gallup poll (which also overpolls Republicans) has the race at Bush 49, Kerry 47 with LV. That's a three-point swing in favor of Kerry, as the last poll had Bush up 51-46. It's now a statistical tie, and shows Kerry has the momentum.

When Gallup predicted where undecideds would land, it got a 49-49 tie, the first it has had in the history of the poll. More importanly, it showed Bush's approval rating at 48%, making him very endangered.

	01-11-2004 06:32									#386
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

I don't think Dems can bank on the incumbent rule in this election. With terrorism and Iraq, undecideds will likely break toward Bush.

	01-11-2004 06:33									#387
	Got spare money?

Actually, Gallup has Kerry up in both Ohio and Florida. But it has Bush up in PA among LV (Kerry leads among RV, though, and the RV model was more accurate in 2000). The biggest surprise was it said Bush was up 8 in Wisconsin. This is totally at odds with several other polls just released that had it either a tie there or Kerry ahead anywhere from 1 to 8 points.

	01-11-2004 06:36									#388
	Put an end to popups!

Among RV's, Gallup has Kerry up in all of his battleground states, except in Iowa, where Bush is up by one, and in Wisconsin by three.

Nationally, Gallup has Kerry up by two among RV's.

	01-11-2004 06:37									#389
	Get a bigger avatar today!

quote: Originally posted by dojoboy I don't think Dems can bank on the incumbent rule in this election. With terrorism and Iraq, undecideds will likely break toward Bush.

There's no evidence to support that "likelihood," however.

Undecideds tend to be people who are unhappy with the incumbent but waiting to see how things play out until the last moment. That's why they heavily break for challengers. Bush hasn't done anything to help his terrorism/security stand in the last week, and it has actually been hurt by the Al Qaaqaa story. Now the Bin Laden tape surfaces and reminds people that Bush has failed to capture him. And tonight 60 minutes is airing a damning story about the administration's ineptitude in planning and running the Iraq war.

If undecideds follow the momentum, they go Kerry.

Edit: And as an aside, the Gallup poll showed among RV that the biggest issue by far was the economy.

	01-11-2004 06:39									#390
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

Man, look at the poll here at Apolyton. After 150 votes, its still neck and neck.