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Who will win?
This poll is closed. |
| Bush |
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86 |
49.43% |
| Kerry |
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88 |
50.57% |
| Total: |
174 voters |
100% |
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dojoboy
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Tansi (USA)
Nov 2001
time: 00:21
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Article on those who put their money where their mouth is.
quote:
The bets are in--Bush to win
Published: October 29, 2004, 10:24 AM PDT
By Andy McCue
Special to CNET News.com
George W. Bush is heading for a surprise landslide victory in next week's presidential elections, going by online betting patterns.
Although U.S. opinion polls are still finding it hard to separate President Bush from his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, customers of Betfair, an online betting exchange, have overwhelmingly backed the Republican candidate.
Betfair's latest figures show 2.3 million pounds ($4.2 million) have been wagered on Bush, while Kerry has attracted only 680,000 pounds ($1.25 million) in bets. Bush is now at 1-5 odds to stay in office, whereas gamblers can still get odds of 2-1 on Kerry to win.
Betfair said its betting patterns are a more accurate indication of election results than the opinion polls. The patterns correctly predicted that Australia's Prime Minister John Howard would comfortably secure a surprise victory in last month's general election.
Mark Davies, director of communications at Betfair, said opinion polls only survey a small percentage of the population, who have no real incentive to provide accurate information.
"In contrast, Betfair's prices are based on people who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is," Davies said in a statement. "Our figures have proved to be an amazingly accurate indicator at both the Australian general election last month and the California governor's election last year. As a result, we're sure George Bush will be pleased to hear that Betfair's sharp-minded punters are backing him to the hilt."
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dojoboy
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Tansi (USA)
Nov 2001
time: 00:21
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Another random article.
quote:
Labor Memo Suggests Bush to Win Election
Oct 29, 3:53 PM (ET)
By LEIGH STROPE
WASHINGTON (AP) - Labor Department staff, analyzing statistics from private economists, report in an internal memo that President Bush is likely to do "much better" in Tuesday's election than the polls are predicting.
The Kerry campaign said the analysis was an improper use of taxpayer money, and the Labor Department acknowledged Friday, "Clearly, this kind of armchair political analysis doesn't belong in government memos, even if they are entirely internal."
The Labor Department report, obtained by The Associated Press, includes an analysis of economic models that suggest Bush will beat Democrat John Kerry. Titled "In Focus: Predicting the Election Outcome," the memo says, "Nearly every single model has him winning."
"Some show the margin of victory being smaller than the models' inherent margin of error, while others report the lead as substantial. And this is without the consideration of a third-party candidate."
Bush's win of the popular vote could be 57.5 percent, 55.7 percent or 51.2 percent, said the paper, dated Oct. 22 and prepared by the department's Employment and Training Administration staff for the assistant labor secretary.
The Bush administration blamed midlevel employees for preparing inappropriate government material.
"This appears to be an internal ETA document prepared by midlevel ETA staff," said Labor Department spokesman Ed Frank.
Kerry's campaign contended the Bush administration was wasting taxpayers' money.
"If the Bush administration focused more on the economy and less on politics, George Bush would not be the first president in 70 years to lose jobs," said Kerry campaign spokesman Phil Singer. "George Bush has turned the government into his own taxpayer-funded political machine."
The document also includes a Washington Post story, an article from Monster.com and charts and briefs on the latest economic indicators.
One factor in the election that has been "downplayed is the president's popularity," a variable the report says may be important. "Fortunately, there are models (that) incorporate this concept," it says.
The economic models are not infallible, but they do "systematically measure past data, which is a far cry better than relying on anecdotal evidence," the paper says. The models looked at an array of economic indicators, including gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation.
The analysis also discusses a futures market that lets players bid on a probable election outcome. It also checked Web sites of oddsmakers in America and abroad.
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Guynemer
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I forgot all about that.
This is so in the bag for me.
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Guynemer
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To hit 359, here's what you'll need ("most" likely scenario):
All the solid Bush states (202), plus
New Mexico 5
Colorado 9
Nevada 5
Florida 27
Ohio 20
Michigan 17
Pennsylvania 21
Iowa 7
Minnesota 10
Wisconsin 10
New Jersey 15
Arkansas 6
West Virginia 5
Or, toss in New Hampshire AND Hawai'i (4 each) and let go of WV, AR, IA, NV, or NM.
You are screwed. All Kerry has to do for me to win the bet is hold his solid states and win ANY ONE of the following: FL, PA, OH, MI, MN, WI, NJ. Even an upset in Colorado would do it.
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30-10-2004 16:41
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