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Vlad Antlerkov is offline Vlad Antlerkov
King
Do you have Matt Stairs in your house?
Mar 1999
time: 23:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 00:28 Visit Vlad Antlerkov's homepage!
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#361 Report this post to a moderator
Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

This post was in a separate thread before I corrected my brain-fart.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/11/2/135756/299

Apparently, Jerome Armstrong over at MyDD managed to get a hold of the Voter News Service (didn't they get disbanded after messing up 2002 completely?) early (as in, 2 PM ET) polls. Like all other polls, take with your usual 20-pound grain of salt.

---- AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 00:29 Visit DanS's homepage!
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I just got back from voting and the lines for A-N were about a half hour. The lines for O-Z were about 5 minutes.

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 00:31 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Those numbers don't look right at all. I seriously doubt PA is 60/40 for instance. Pound of salt taken.

Wezil is offline Wezil
King
Ontario, Canada
Nov 1999
time: 01:49
  Old Post 03-11-2004 00:35
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Virtually all the final polls in our last election were off. The results were not as close as the polls indicated they would be.

Jaguar is offline Jaguar
King
Montgomery County, MD
Apr 2000
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 00:46
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quote:
Originally posted by OzzyKP
So you think this nation is split by the election?

Check out my front yard:

Ozzy, I'm fairly certain that I've driven past your yard. I know where you live.

Jaguar is offline Jaguar
King
Montgomery County, MD
Apr 2000
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 00:47
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http://www.suntimes.com/output/elec...ws-calls02.html
quote:
Schwarzkopf for Kerry? He says it isn't so

November 2, 2004

LANSING, Mich. -- Some Michigan voters have received phone calls falsely claiming that Sen. John Kerry would make gay marriage legal. In New Jersey, some voters have heard a man claiming to be former Army Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf backing the Democrat. Elderly voters in Pennsylvania have been told they are ineligible to vote.

Republicans and Democrats were furious Monday about the blatantly false, 11th-hour political calls to voters and demanded an end to the messages.

Schwarzkopf has endorsed President Bush, but in a recording of a phone call played for the Associated Press, a man identifying himself as the Persian Gulf War general says, ''In 2000, I voted for George W. Bush, but this year I'm voting for John Kerry. ... John Kerry has a real plan to make our military stronger and to go after terrorists wherever they hide. We need a vote for change, vote for John Kerry.''

A voice says the message was paid for by the Democratic National Committee.

In a statement from the Bush campaign, Schwarzkopf said the DNC was making fraudulent phone calls claiming that he had endorsed Kerry, and ''nothing could be further from the truth, and I demand that they stop immediately.''

The DNC had no immediate reaction. AP

OzzyKP is offline OzzyKP
King
Rockville, MD
Oct 1999
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 00:47 Visit OzzyKP's homepage!
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HA! Small world indeed.

BeBro is offline BeBro
King
of the Krauts
Mar 2000
time: 06:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 00:52 Visit BeBro's homepage!
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Tired of ads?

I this the right thread complain how evil Americans vote too late, so that the results come in at times when every good Eurocom is asleep?

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
King
of Internet Music.
Sep 2001
time: 21:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 01:13
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This is done intentionally so we can secretly conspire while Eurocoms sleep.

Zkribbler is offline Zkribbler
King
Los Angeles, CA, USA
Feb 1999
time: 21:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 01:35
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
Those numbers don't look right at all. I seriously doubt PA is 60/40 for instance. Pound of salt taken.


It depends upon what your definition of "right" is.

A poll like this is most probably focused on urban centers, which is Kerry territory. It would underemphasize hard-to-keep-track-of rural areas -- which is Bush country -- and it would not count at all absentee ballots and military ballots, both of which are traditionally pro-Republican.

So the poll is probably accurately reflecting what the observers are seeing, but more is yet to come.

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 01:37 Visit DanS's homepage!
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As it turns out, the sample for those numbers was 59% female. The gender gap isn't as big this year, but it is still there.

OzzyKP is offline OzzyKP
King
Rockville, MD
Oct 1999
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 02:29 Visit OzzyKP's homepage!
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Anyone hear who won yet?

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 02:38 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Here's a funny article...

quote:
No Matter What Happens, Relax

By George F. Will
Tuesday, November 2, 2004; Page A21

During tonight's tumult of election returns, remember:

If, for the fourth consecutive election, neither candidate wins a popular vote majority, relax. There were four consecutive such elections from 1880 to 1892. In 1876 a candidate (Samuel Tilden) got 51 percent -- and lost (to Rutherford Hayes). Six elections since World War II produced plurality presidents -- 1948, 1960, 1968, 1992, 1996, 2000. Woodrow Wilson was consequential although he won his first term with just 41.8 percent and his second with 49.2 percent.

If today's election produces vast consequences from slender margins, relax. This is not unusual. In 1916 a switch of 1,771 votes in California would have enabled Charles Evans Hughes to rescue the nation from President Wilson. In 1948 a switch of 30,262 votes in California, Illinois, Ohio and Nevada would have replaced President Harry Truman with Tom Dewey. In 1968 a switch of 53,034 votes in New Jersey, New Hampshire and Missouri would have denied Richard Nixon an electoral vote majority and, because George Wallace won 46 electoral votes, the House probably would have awarded the presidency to Hubert Humphrey. In 1976 a switch of 9,246 votes in Ohio and Hawaii would have enabled President Gerald Ford to beat Jimmy Carter with 270 electoral votes -- but 1.5 million fewer popular votes than Carter had.

If George W. Bush loses, relax. Turbulence is normal. Since 1900, not including Bush, there have been 18 presidents, of whom only five served a full eight years or more. Only 11 of the 42 presidents before Bush served two consecutive terms. Between 1837 and Wilson, only Grant served two consecutive terms. If Bush wins, this will be what the poet William Carlos Williams called "the rare occurrence of the expected." All the winners of elections after 1960 will have been from the Sunbelt -- Georgia, Arkansas, Texas, Southern California.

This is the first wartime election since 1972, when the president presiding over a divisive war trounced an antiwar candidate in 49 states. In wartime 1968, the nation narrowly decided to change the party holding the presidency. In 1944 the commander in chief won a fourth term, but with only 53 percent of the vote, and in 1864 the president might have lost if Atlanta had not been captured before the election.

Watch Nevada. Even though in 1864 it had only one-fifth the population required for statehood, it was admitted to the Union to give an embattled wartime president three extra electoral votes. Bush could lose Nevada's five votes because of his decision -- wise but unpopular -- to proceed with the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository.

Watch Maine's 2nd Congressional District. Maine, like Nebraska, allocates an electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district. Kerry will win Maine, but Bush could win the 2nd. Watch Ohio. If Bush carries the state hit hardest by job losses, can we retire the canard that Americans "vote their pocketbooks''? Many issues often trump banal calculations of short-term material well-being.

So watch the black vote. If, as several pre-election polls suggested, Bush doubles the 9 percent of African American votes he won in 2000, it will be partly because efforts were made, especially on black radio, to use Bush's stance on same-sex marriage to appeal to the black community's cultural conservatism.

In 2002 Bush became the second president since the Civil War whose party increased its House and Senate seats in the middle of his first term -- although a switch of just 82,763 votes out of 75.7 million votes cast would have given Democrats control of the House and Senate. If today Republicans again gain seats, this strength will beget strength: It will trigger the retirement of some congressional Democrats disheartened by the prospect of protracted minority status.

If Democrat Brad Carson defeats Republican Tom Coburn for Oklahoma's open Senate seat while Bush is carrying the state by, say, 30 points, this remarkable ticket-splitting might lead, mercifully, to abandonment of the blue state-red state dichotomy. Concerning which, if Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle is reelected in South Dakota, a great anomaly will continue: four Democratic senators from the two Dakotas, where Bush's 2000 victories were by an average of 25 percent.

Perhaps this will reconcile liberals to the fact that 16 percent of Americans elect half the Senate. Of course, some egalitarians will continue to consider the Constitution's provision regarding the composition of the Senate an unconstitutional violation of the Constitution's guarantee of equal protection of the laws.

MrFun is offline MrFun
King
of Iowa
Nov 2000
time: 23:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 02:43 Visit MrFun's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by OzzyKP
Anyone hear who won yet?



Well, if win the campaign, it will be the end of the country as we know it.

Jaguar is offline Jaguar
King
Montgomery County, MD
Apr 2000
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:21
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Got spare money?

http://www.latimes.com/news/politic...0,1851284.flash

This thing's pretty cool.



I don't think it's possible for Bush to win without Florida. Even if I'm very charitable to him, he still doesn't quite make it.

Attachment: ec.jpg
This has been downloaded 71 time(s).

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:27 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Zogby's last poll has Bush winning the popular vote, but losing the election. It's that close!

OzzyKP is offline OzzyKP
King
Rockville, MD
Oct 1999
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:29 Visit OzzyKP's homepage!
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Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Oh that'd be fun

Revenge for 2000!

Jaguar is offline Jaguar
King
Montgomery County, MD
Apr 2000
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:29
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I think that's what's going to happen. I am certain Bush will win the popular vote, but I'm about 60% sure Kerry will win overall.

OzzyKP is offline OzzyKP
King
Rockville, MD
Oct 1999
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:31 Visit OzzyKP's homepage!
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Based on what?

I've no idea how this will turn out.

Jaguar is offline Jaguar
King
Montgomery County, MD
Apr 2000
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:35
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The Kerry wins EC but Bush wins popular vote theory:


- Bush is winning a lot of states in the Plains and the South by gigantic double digit margins.

- Kerry isn't as strong in many usual Democratic strongholds, such as New Jersey and Hawaii. However, he'll still probably win them.

- This suggests more of Bush's votes will be wasted.

Winston is offline Winston
King
Danmark
Mar 1999
time: 06:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:36
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That was an interesting article DanS. Where is it from?

Agathon is offline Agathon
Prince
Leafs 4TW!! - CPA
Dec 2002
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:39
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So what time do you think the gloating (one way or the other) will begin? I say 10:30.

Hueij is offline Hueij
Emperor
Kokonino Kounty
May 1999
time: 06:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:39
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#383 Report this post to a moderator
Tired of ads?

There was an article in one of the mayor Dutch papers about this as well this morning. Bush gets the popular vote and Kerry will be the next president.

Q Cubed is offline Q Cubed
Prince
t3h y3ll0w p3ril
Apr 1999
time: 23:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:44 Visit Q Cubed's homepage!
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#384 Report this post to a moderator
Put an end to popups!

get ready for recount and voter irregularity lawsuits up the wazoo or bajingo, depending on what you have.

Flubber is offline Flubber
Emperor
With a view of the Rockies
Aug 2000
time: 22:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:45
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#385 Report this post to a moderator
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THat LA times map is fun

I like being able to switch states back and forth and play with the combinations

Ben Kenobi is offline Ben Kenobi
Emperor
McGregornobi!
Oct 2002
time: 21:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:46
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You're on Aggie.

Plus, even if Kerry loses, you get to root against me and my bet.

Jaguar is offline Jaguar
King
Montgomery County, MD
Apr 2000
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:51
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quote:
Originally posted by Agathon
So what time do you think the gloating (one way or the other) will begin? I say 10:30.

Once Kerry wins, I get to gloat at you, for Hasslehoff will return!

Agathon is offline Agathon
Prince
Leafs 4TW!! - CPA
Dec 2002
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:55
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Got spare money?

That he will. I'll have to make a new version of the pic as I have Polyplus size avatars.

If Kerry wins.

Although I saw Tucker Carlson looking morose on CNN. He thinks the turnout means a Kerry win. I'm not so sure.

Kuciwalker is offline Kuciwalker
Emperor
of Schmooism
Feb 2001
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:57
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quote:
Originally posted by alva
* alva wonders how many rainforests have been cut for this election alone.


Five.

Agathon is offline Agathon
Prince
Leafs 4TW!! - CPA
Dec 2002
time: 00:19
  Old Post 03-11-2004 03:57
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Hmmm

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/new...qZKE&refer=home

I refuse to believe that Americans are being sensible!!! Get back to acting like selfish morons, morons!!!

 
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