03-11-2004 09:30									#181
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Mostly I find playing with the LA Times election simulator fun.

Joncha, I bet my Apolyton avatar on AR being blue. That's a risk to take, but I'm still confident.

	03-11-2004 09:31									#182
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui ****... 10 out of the 11 states that voted on whether to ban gay marriage / civil unions, voted to ban then . Discrimination

Stupid

	03-11-2004 09:32									#183
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quote: ****... 10 out of the 11 states that voted on whether to ban gay marriage / civil unions, voted to ban then . Discrimination

Gay marriage was already banned in AR; this was just a constitutional addition.

	03-11-2004 09:33									#184
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Alright, Florida is now at 95% reported and Wolf Blitzer keeps sputtering about absentee ballots. Bush has a 5% lead which amounts to about 300,000 votes.

Why the hell haven't they called the state? Miami Dade is at 94%! Bush has Central Florida!

	03-11-2004 09:34									#185
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Nobody has the guts to call Oregon for Kerry or Florida for Bush yet. Someone on Fox News said Bush had it basically locked up, though.

	03-11-2004 09:35									#186
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quote: Originally posted by Jaguar Nobody has the guts to call Oregon for Kerry or Florida for Bush yet.

Yeah no kidding, Fox is being ultra-conservative and CNN, for all their nifty analysis crap they've been droning on about, can't call it.

	03-11-2004 09:35									#187
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quote: Originally posted by Harry Tuttle Alright, Florida is now at 95% reported and Wolf Blitzer keeps sputtering about absentee ballots. Bush has a 5% lead which amounts to about 300,000 votes. Why the hell haven't they called the state? Miami Dade is at 94%! Bush has Central Florida!

Apparently they haven't added in the early voters yet. That might be why.

	03-11-2004 09:35									#188
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quote: Originally posted by mrmitchell Joncha, I bet my Apolyton avatar on AR being blue. That's a risk to take, but I'm still confident.

If Bush wins I will switch my avatar to an aardvark.

	03-11-2004 09:37									#189
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A question... after 2000, would YOU call Florida before it hits 98%, 99%, 100%? They are being ultra cautious because they got hit hard 4 years back.

	03-11-2004 09:38									#190
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Bush has a 321,000 vote lead in FL. It's time for them to admit defeat.

	03-11-2004 09:38									#191
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Wisconsin now 50% Kerry / 49% Bush....!

	03-11-2004 09:38									#192
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quote: Originally posted by monkspider Have faith, most of the highly democratic counties in Florida have not been counted, and they still have not added early voting which has heavily favored Kerry. Also, Kerry has been outperforming Gore for the most part in Florida.

Damn, I was all depressed about Bush being ahead while eating lunch, but if that is true then things look pretty good. There's hope yet...

And Penn goes Kerry

Reports of Republicans filling lots and lots of lawsuits to tie things him in Ohio and make the waiting long enough that people give up and leave...

	03-11-2004 09:38									#193
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui A question... after 2000, would YOU call Florida before it hits 98%, 99%, 100%? They are being ultra cautious because they got hit hard 4 years back.

but then there wasn't a 320000 difference....

	03-11-2004 09:38									#194
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It has been clear for a while that Bush wins Florida. My guess is that he'll also wins Ohio, since he's had a stable ~5% lead since the start of the vote-counting process.

For Kerry, winning after that would demand a clear victory in the west coast (Oregon, Washington, Nevada) AND winning in NH and Hawaii AND a single surprise victory in a state such as Arizona, Missouri, Colorado or New Mexico (in the case of NM, it would be a tie -- > BUSH WINS)...

Like I presumed, Bush seems to be the winner here... I'll continue following this race for another 6 hours, still.

	03-11-2004 09:39									#195
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Florida: 97% counted.
Still 5% difference in favor to Bush.

	03-11-2004 09:39									#196
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Even if Kerry wins ohio...hes gotta run the tables in 3 states in order to win.

	03-11-2004 09:40									#197
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BBC has officially called Florida for George W. Bush.

	03-11-2004 09:40									#198
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I'm calling:

Republicans gain 5 house seats, 3 senate seats, keep the Presidency, and boot Daschle.

	03-11-2004 09:41									#199
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No new picture, but the Mrmitchell Organization (TM) is giving Missouri to Bush but pulling NV back into the "Too Close To Call" column, depending on the outcome of early votes....FL remains Too Close for the same reason....major upset to Kerry in WI shows how feindishly awesome my prediction capabilities are.

When all precincts are counted, the result will be called for Ohio.

	03-11-2004 09:42									#200
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By looks of the popular vote I think I called it right a week ago when I said Bush 52% Kerry 48%. Of course my "12ish" EV count is still in the air.

	03-11-2004 09:43									#201
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Isn't there a rather big discrepancy between the exit polls and the hard votes in Florida?

	03-11-2004 09:44									#202
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Yep. Exit polls suck. They're very inaccurate. Exit Polls are the reason that the media screwed up with FL last time.

	03-11-2004 09:44									#203
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The networks probably don't want to call the entire race before Alaska gets finished voting, around 12:00am.

I think Hawaii is already done voting as they are marked "processing votes" on the CNN site.

	03-11-2004 09:47									#204
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Ohio will be interesting. The Democrat areas had huge lines when the polls closed, and if you are in line when the polls 'close' you are allowed to vote. In one heavy Democratic area, they anticipated they will continue to vote until midnight!

	03-11-2004 09:47									#205
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I thought voting in Hawaii was supposed to wrap up at 11 Eastern, but CNN has been saying it closed at 10. Could be I'm just mixed up because they don't observe Daylight Savings Time...

	03-11-2004 09:48									#206
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Thune has a 2,108 vote lead against Daschle!

	03-11-2004 09:49									#207
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Remember though, we are looking at hard votes here, not a poll taken outside the voting centers. These are real numbers now.

	03-11-2004 09:50									#208
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Ohio will be interesting. The Democrat areas had huge lines when the polls closed, and if you are in line when the polls 'close' you are allowed to vote. In one heavy Democratic area, they anticipated they will continue to vote until midnight!

Also of note: only about half of the Cleveland area is in. Expect Kerry to make up at least another 110,000 there, plus another 25,000 in the Toledo area (only about half in).

Long way to go, gang.

	03-11-2004 09:51									#209
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Hmm. Are you sure that the early votes haven't been counted in Florida? Is there any hope?

	03-11-2004 09:52									#210
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Candy Crowley Reporting from Boston said the areas that have still to report in OH are big big Dem areas.

Don't give up!