04-11-2004 03:20									#121
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quote: Originally posted by Alexander's Horse An optimistic view would be Bush will learn from the first term, improve his international policy and address the budget deficit. That means revamping his cabinet and listening more to advice. The pessimistic view would be more of the same, which should give the Democrats a good shot in 2008 if they can find a competitive candidate. On Iraq, the message seems to be you got us into this, you get us out of it. How that is handled will have a big bearing on Bush's place in history, as will his management of the economy, where there is some risk of a global recession.

actually this is one of the most sensible postings here.

	04-11-2004 03:22									#122
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Say, whatever happened to Saddam Hussein? Is anyone willing to bet that by 2008 he'll be sitting back in his old chair in one of his palaces?

	04-11-2004 03:23									#123
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I'd actually think it's more likely that he'll be on the US lecture circuit.

-Arrian

	04-11-2004 03:44									#124
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Hussein will be dead by 2008. And I can't say that I'm sad about that, pro or contra death penalty.

	04-11-2004 05:01									#125
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quote: I remember the exact same things when Reagan was elected. And reelected. OTOH I also recall europeans mystified at the impeachment of Richard Nixon. This too shall pass.

Then again, Reagan did cause at least one generation to be far less america minded.
I'm not sure how many our relationship can stand.
Then again, the moment we even so much as spot a common 'enemy' (China in 20 years?), we'll end up (pretenting?) to be bestest mates.

	04-11-2004 05:39									#126
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quote: Originally posted by Sir Ralph Hussein will be dead by 2008. And I can't say that I'm sad about that, pro or contra death penalty.

I don't think they can just take him out and shoot him. That would look bad and might elicit a serious reaction from the insurgents. AFAIK his trial has been put on hold. I haven't heard anything about it since the first week after the interim Iraqi government was officially installed.

The insurgency is not abating. I doubt that a fair election could be held at this time or in the forseeable future. Whether elections are held or not we're going to have to secure the Iraqi government until.......what? Until we get tired and declare the Iraqi government a success as we withdraw our forces? At that point the insurgency begins to close in on the luckless unfortunate stuck in the Iraqi President's chair. Saddam will still be alive at that time, because he will be the last tiny amount of insurance that the sacrificial Iraqi government has. When the Iraqi government falls will the insurgents execute him or give him a victory parade?

	04-11-2004 05:46									#127
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That would give you guys enough reason to go back in, say august 2008.

	04-11-2004 06:11									#128
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Well, lets see- what these next four years will set in motion:

Politics:

A major shakeup of the two current parties: I expect the Dems to come to an end as a "great party" in the next 20 years- their going will precipitate a split of the republican party- we might be entering a new era akin to the whig collapse, or something totally new. Unfortunitelly, whatever happens, we will end again with just 2 parties.

Iraq:

Obviously, major offensive in the Sunni triangle in the coming weeks- the US wins handily (and bloodily), and elections go forward on 1/5- that government will then take up the mess of figuring out the real form of the permament government- expect a huge mess over the level of Federalism in Iraq- to a certain degree, even if the US still has 100,000 plus troops in Iraq (likely for at least 2 more years), our actual say in what goes on in Iraq will decline.

Domestically:

Bush will move ahead with a radical tax cutting and anti-deregulation agenda- the Congress will continue to swallow its words and vote for very expensive measures- making the budget deficit worse- but of course, they don't care since in reality many of them probably want the Federal government to go down in fiscal flames, thus getting rid of the Great Society and Depression era programs.

	04-11-2004 13:48									#129
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark here.

Point taken. I've edited my post.

	04-11-2004 14:30									#130
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quote: Originally posted by Dr Strangelove I don't think they can just take him out and shoot him. That would look bad and might elicit a serious reaction from the insurgents. AFAIK his trial has been put on hold. I haven't heard anything about it since the first week after the interim Iraqi government was officially installed. The insurgency is not abating. I doubt that a fair election could be held at this time or in the forseeable future. Whether elections are held or not we're going to have to secure the Iraqi government until.......what? Until we get tired and declare the Iraqi government a success as we withdraw our forces? At that point the insurgency begins to close in on the luckless unfortunate stuck in the Iraqi President's chair. Saddam will still be alive at that time, because he will be the last tiny amount of insurance that the sacrificial Iraqi government has. When the Iraqi government falls will the insurgents execute him or give him a victory parade?

Do you mean Hussein is helt as some kind of hostage? It's the first time I hear this opinion.

Generally your post sounds like resignation, like the growing awareness, that a democratic Iraq is an utopia, which just isn't going to happen anytime soon, unless you declare some strongman of your choice as "freely elected president", which wouldn't be the first time but not count as democracy. I can't say that I disagree, not because the Iraqis are evil, or terrorists or something like that, but because they aren't ripe for a democracy. If you enforce a form of government at gun point, your gun would have to stay in place, or else your government would be toast the same day you withdraw. To build up a local army to hold insurgence at bay and secure the democracy on withdrawal is also a fallacy. It would either end up in a military junta or simply fail, because the army consists of locals who will refuse to shoot at their like. Yes indeed, sounds there's not much to save.

As for Hussein being reinstalled, I doubt that the insurgents are interested in that. They are fighting for their own power, or to install some theocracy, but not to reinstall some wraith of the past. I think you can safely shoot him.

	04-11-2004 16:33									#131
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The democrats should hire Saddam to deal with Hilary.

Last edited by Alexander's Horse on 05-11-2004 at 03:39