03-11-2004 13:31									#1
	So, what can we expect from Four More Years? Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

(NOTENOTENOTE: NOT AN ELECTION THREAD, SEE, THIS IS A THREAD THAT DOESN'T EVEN MENTION THE WORD 'ELECTION' EXPECT IN THIS SENTENCE, THIS IS ALL ABOUT WHAT BUSH WILL DO NEXT)

So now that Bush has all but won the... ummm... vote-thingy, what will happen during the next four years? (obvious) predictions:

- Liberals, Europeans will keep on hating Dub-Dub, and will in fact find a lot of new reasons

- Iraq will still be a mess

- Osama still won't be found

- Who knows what happens with the economy

- Pundits will still prattle on and on about red states and blue states

- In 2007 and early 2008, Iowa and New Hampshire are slumped with a furious cadre of politicians, as both parties will essentially have an open-field primary

Now for the less obvious ones:

- Bush will experience a six-year itch in 2006 - some sort of a public scandal, if not Watergate-level, then at least Iran-Contra level.

- At least 3 judges will keel and Bush manages to push conservatives to replace them in the Supreme Court. Biggest result: Roe v. Wade gets overturned around 2007. As states get around to banning abortion and pro-choicers vow to fight the bans by any means necessary, all the hell breaks loose. Blood in the streets, etc.

- No big terror attacks on U.S. soil, though some smaller ones at other countries' territory.

- No big new wars, though Iraq and Afghanistan will still be sore. Iraq won't have any sort of democracy that will have high marks from any impartial observers. If there are new wars, then they'll be in unexpected countries (expected countries would be Iran, N. Korea, Syria, Sudan.) Maybe in Latin America, if the lefty wave continues?

	03-11-2004 13:40									#2
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Hey, that's what happened the last 4 years!

	03-11-2004 13:50									#3
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I see two upsides:

1) Bush will have to clean up his own mess

2) A Republican controlled government means the Guvenator can get a Constitutional Amendment passed. This will happen after his stellar record ruling California.


Downside:

1) Instead of cleaning up his mess, he'll create more new ones

2) Marines get bogged down in Helsinki

	03-11-2004 13:51									#4
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The 08 repub primaries will be very fun to watch.

	03-11-2004 13:53									#5
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we could start with 4 more wars, 4 more tax cuts, and 4 more patriot acts.

	03-11-2004 14:38									#6
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quote: The 08 repub primaries will be very fun to watch.

The 08 dem primaries will probably be Hillary vs. Stop-Hillary, and New Hampshire and Iowa will be all about who gets to be Stop-Hillary. Beats me who the candidates for that prodigious post will be, though.

Frightening thought: Hillary vs. Al Gore

	03-11-2004 14:38									#7
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My fears:

The divisions between the U.S. and the World and within the U.S. will deepen and become more entrenched. Bush is going to be unwilling to do what it takes to bring everyone back together. He will simply tell them to come and follow him and expect them to listen.

The U.S. might start to get into an Isreal-Palestine situation regarding terrorism and the Arab world. If there are more terrorist attacks and Iraq continues to be a mess then a cycle of violence might well develop.

A lot of what other people said too.

-Drachasor

PS. I am hopeful the second item I stated won't happen, though I am not sure. I strongly think the first item will happen, however.

	03-11-2004 14:40									#8
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quote: - In 2007 and early 2008, Iowa and New Hampshire are slumped with a furious cadre of politicians, as both parties will essentially have an open-field primary

I am really looking forward to this.

Have we ever really had such a clean-slate election?

	03-11-2004 14:45									#9
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Heh, a part of me was wanting a Bush win for the exact reason that there would be a good, meaty primary season, with politicians of both parties duking it all out.

Stop-Hillary will probably be a Southerner, male, and moderate. Any good candidates? I know one, but he's barred from running as he already served two terms in 1992-2000

If my Roe v. Wade prediction comes through, though, no-one could stop Hillary. Expect for revived FDR, probably.

Zombie FDR in 2008!

	03-11-2004 14:53									#10
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It's possible Bush will moderate in his second term, now that he doesn't have to worry about running again. Well, unless he decides to hell with tradition and pull an FDR.

Gatekeeper

	03-11-2004 14:57									#11
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The US will continue its fall in conservatism and religious bigotry. Stem-cell research will continue being banned.

No major war will be started by the US, at least none that requires an occupation.

Iraq will either be a mess, or will be dominated by a pro-US strongman - definitely not a modern democracy by any standards. Afghanistan will keep being the nice little feudal hellhole it has always been.

The "war on terror" propaganda will continue unabated. Just like the "war on drugs". For some reason, I don't see the "war on poverty" coming back to fashion.

Diplomacy won't be as terrible as it was during the first term. However, most countries will continue to distrust the US, and will look for ways to take care of themselves. Iran and NK won't stop their nuclear programmes unless a war happens.

Terrorist organizations will continue on their merry way, and will do plenty of small-scale attacks, especially against western interests in the Middle East.

Bush will not intervene too strongly in the Israel-Palestine situation. The American success in Iraq will depend on Bush's popularity in the Arab world, and he doesn't want to alienate Israel nor the American Jews. Hence, he'll keep the cautious stance he has adopted since the end of the Road Map.

	03-11-2004 15:00									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Gatekeeper It's possible Bush will moderate in his second term, now that he doesn't have to worry about running again. Well, unless he decides to hell with tradition and pull an FDR. Gatekeeper

Ahh, I needed that.

One is typically moderate the first term so that they can get elected again. If anything Bush will less constrained by any feeling of moderation. That's how it has always worked in the past.*

-Drachasor

*Up to some point of of pragmatism.

	03-11-2004 15:03									#13
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Stem cell research is not banned.

Iraq will improve, and will have proper elections.

Propaganda?

Diplomacy will certainly improve, now that stallers will have nothing to stall for.

Terrorists will continue to pour into the nice little terrorist trap we've created in the mideast, and leave us alone.

Israel can take care of itself.

	03-11-2004 15:13									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor The US will continue its fall in conservatism and religious bigotry. Stem-cell research will continue being banned.

On a more positive note the state of California agreed to fund $3 billion over 10 years into stem cell research. To compare Bush only funds $25 million per year.

	03-11-2004 15:14									#15
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Hmm..

- SCOTUS will turn into 6-3 conservative - less conservative

- Gay marriage, abortion, stem cell research etc will be repressed even further

- Iraq will still be a mess in 4yrs time

- There will be some form of draft to keep up the numbers in the military

- There will be air strikes (conventional and possibly bunkerbuster nukes) on Iran, remote parts of Pakistan and possibly N. Korea.

- I'd say there's a 90-95% chance that there will be an Al-Qaeda related attack on mainland US in these 4 years.

- Democratic primaries in 2008 will be between Obama and H. Clinton.

(probably not but fun nonetheless)

However, Bush will use his power in Congress/Senate and SCOTUS to declare himself God-Emperor of the world and makes Jeb his chosen successor.

	03-11-2004 15:14									#16
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk Stem cell research is not banned. Iraq will improve, and will have proper elections. Propaganda? Diplomacy will certainly improve, now that stallers will have nothing to stall for. Terrorists will continue to pour into the nice little terrorist trap we've created in the mideast, and leave us alone. Israel can take care of itself.

1) stemcell research is not banned. you only can't use stemcells to do research on... brilliant

2) great. do you even watch the news ? the place is going up in flames.

3) so, it's the worlds fault that your idiotic choice of a president has pissed off just about everyone with whom he would in the future have to make deals

4) and obviously this strategy works !!! for instance the nice little communist trap in vietnam sure was a compolete success.

5) yep. we agree on that one. when next time a resolution against israel is proposed in the UN are you still going to veto it ?

	03-11-2004 15:16									#17
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Oerdin, is Iraq going up in flames?

	03-11-2004 15:18									#18
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk Stem cell research is not banned. Iraq will improve, and will have proper elections.

It is effectively banned because the federal government doesn't fund this research. $25 million is a drop in the bucket and it comes with huge strings attached.

Iraq will have elections but it is up in the air if they will be proper or not. There is currently a major problem where 4-6 large cities are controlled by various rebel groups none of which are to egar to have elections they are likely to lose. It's more likely they'll block the elections in those areas (which have a total population of 2-3 million) and then publically challenge the validity of the elections.

That sort of propaganda will play well in the Arab world.

	03-11-2004 15:20									#19
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i'm never going to renounce my citizenship in this country.

but i can see the appeal to many why they want to be expatriates.

	03-11-2004 15:21									#20
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Headaches. Lots and lots of headaches.

	03-11-2004 15:26									#21
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk Oerdin, is Iraq going up in flames?

No but insurgent activity is picking up and more of it's funds are coming from various "charity" groups throughout the muslim world. Most of the insurgents are Iraqis not foreigners but foreigners are paying an increasing share.

The Coalition will have no choice but to launch a real ground offensive in places like Fallujah, Ramadi, Najaf, Samarra, and others if they want the vote to be held in January as planned. That will mean lots of dead bodies and lots of blown up buildings during real urban warfare. Bush put this off until after the US election and either he finishes it before the Iraqi general elections in January or it is likely the elections won't be held in rebel controlled areas.

Not holding elections in every part of Iraq would cast doubt upon the legitamacy of the new government. The only way to really end the rebellion is for everyone to see the newly elected Iraqi government as legitimate and independent. Of course there is the added complication that any government elected will have to ask the US forces to leave or the Iraqi people won't see it as independent.

	03-11-2004 15:30									#22
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Well, Powell's going to leave the State Dept., and probably be replaced with Rice -- which means that we're going to replace a real-world diplomat/realist with and academic hawk/idealist. It's hard to see how that will improve diplomacy.

(Rice, incidently, will be replaced by Wolfowitz -- who would rather be headiong up State or Defense, but who is too toxic from Iraq to survive a confirmation hearing.)

The GOP nomination will go to Jeb if he wants it, Bill Frist if Jeb says no.

Hilary's main opponent in 2008 will be Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa. Whichever one of them gets nominated will get stomped on in the general election.

	03-11-2004 15:31									#23
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quote: Originally posted by dannubis 1) stemcell research is not banned. you only can't use stemcells to do research on... brilliant

You're wrong. He just said the Federal government will only fund research conducted on five pre-existing steam cell lines. The problem is any living cell only reproduces a certain number of times and then it dies. We need a constent supply of new stem cells to replace the nearly extinct lines Bush authorized.

Also since the Feds pay for nearly all basic scientific research the ban on new funds basically killed research in this country. Luckily, a few forward thinking states are cough up hard cash to pay for more research.

	03-11-2004 15:33									#24
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I think Spiffor nicely summed it up. Other than that, not much will change. There's really no substantial difference between Bush and Kerry, both are right wing lunatics, so big deal who takes the lead. I will continue to shrug, when I hear the news, and America will be as far and as important as Kenya.

	03-11-2004 15:33									#25
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The Middle East stays a mess, but Bush's continued help will turn it into an even bigger disaster area!

The sheer anarchistic chaos in Afghanistan will spread to it's neighbouring countries!

Islamic terrorists groups will rejoice that Bush stays in power, because it'll mean that recruiting becomes lots easier!

The deficit will soar even higher, jobs lost to outsourcing will increase and tax breaks for the rich will not help a great deal! The American economy will collapse!

With the collapse of the American economy, the American military gets into severe budgetting problems and needs to be downsized considerably, which might be a problem what with all the wars going on all over the place.


All this leads to one simple conclusion:
Canada will become the world's dominant power!

	03-11-2004 15:44									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin You're wrong. He just said the Federal government will only fund research conducted on five pre-existing steam cell lines. The problem is any living cell only reproduces a certain number of times and then it dies. We need a constent supply of new stem cells to replace the nearly extinct lines Bush authorized.

It also doesn't help that there's evidence your 22 approved stem cell lines appear to be contaminated by the mouse cell scaffolding their grew on or that 5 of them are display such weak growth their value is, at best, debatable:

http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99996604

	03-11-2004 15:49									#27
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As for predictions:

1) Since Republicans now control all facites of government they will move to completely eliminate the Alternative Minimium Tax (AMT), the Capital Gains Tax, and the Estate Tax. They will instead in act a new national sales tax.

2) 1-2 Supreme Court Justices will die or retire thus giving Bush a chance to put in anti-choice judges.

3) With Daschle gone and the Republican seat count in Congress up (BTW redistricting played a key part in that) all of Bush's appointees will sail through no matter how extemist.

4) I'm not seeing a major terrorist attack in the US but I do see 2-3 more Bali style bombings taking place around the world. These will most likely take place places where muslim terrorists can easily get to like muslim countries or other countries with light border and immigration controls.

5) The budget deficit will double. This will cause interest rates to rise as the Federal government sucks up the available capital.

6) The economy will continue to improve but we will see the continued erosion of the manufactering sector. The quality of new jobs will not be as good as the old jobs.

7) I'm hoping Bush pushes for the creation of the Free Trade Zone of the Americas. This would sale through a Republican Congress and it would be good for business.

8) Without proper funding of reconstruction Iraq will remain a dangerous place as will Afghanistan. If Bush is smart he'll throw serious money at the New Iraqi Army (currently only about 25k troops which is a disgrace) and build it up to at least 200,000. That way the US & UK can start pulling out.

9) No major changes in Afghanistan meaning the government still won't control the country side, the economy will suck (but will more and more be based upon the drug trade), there will be period terrorist attacks and assassinations, and warlords will have the power of life or death over everyone.

10) With luck by 2008 the Republicans will have screwed things up so bad that Democrates will be swept into office. Jeb Bush will run against the Democratic candidate who will be from the deep south.

	03-11-2004 15:51									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Starchild It also doesn't help that there's evidence your 22 approved stem cell lines appear to be contaminated by the mouse cell scaffolding their grew on or that 5 of them are display such weak growth their value is, at best, debatable: http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99996604

I agree and that's why I voted for the creation of the California Stem Cell Research Center. It will be a major research center who's sole purpose is to work on stem cells with a $3 billion budget.

	03-11-2004 15:54									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Stefu The 08 dem primaries will probably be Hillary vs. Stop-Hillary, and New Hampshire and Iowa will be all about who gets to be Stop-Hillary. Beats me who the candidates for that prodigious post will be, though. Frightening thought: Hillary vs. Al Gore

I don't know why so many people think that Hillary will run for President. She's not studid, she knows she doesn't have the slightest chance of winning. And the Democrats do too so they'd never nominate her *knocks on wood.* Hopefully we'll get some governor candidates this time, the Dem senators have gotten knocked around enough.

quote: It's possible Bush will moderate in his second term

quote: Stem-cell research will continue being banned.

Its not banned.

quote: The "war on terror" propaganda will continue unabated.

Yeah but Republicans wouldn't be able to yelp about 9/11 continuously anymore, that will hurt them.

	03-11-2004 15:55									#30
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I predict that the morale in the military will remain high. We gave the troops the president that they wanted.