08-11-2004 04:31									#1
	The War: 1260AD Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Save already with GoW, so we better start thinking about the coming turn. Sorry for not posting earlier, I had a lot of business stuff to do.

Eastern Theatre

A doctored intel map of the Eastern Theatre follows. It includes all information gathered last turn. The positions of our ships are accurate as of hitting the end-turn button:



I don't think there will be much to do in 1260AD in the Eastern Theatre. Unlike in the Western Ocean, our navy here is totally outnumbered - we better keep it safe in harbours. Leaving our ships in the open is as good as scuttling them, since GoW risks nothing by first bombing them down to 1hp and sinking them with a vet DD then.

I believe it's quite obvious that GoW will move their fleet like this:



Their goal will be to threaten both Jackson & Dye Fields with a blitz-through attack at the same time (there's only this one tile allowing blitz-through attacks at both cities). With our navy in Jackson too weak to block Jackson East, we will have only one option - stuff Jackson and Dye Fields with defenders enough to rule out a successful seaborne operation by GoW.

Last turn, GoW had 36 marines, but they may add few (up to 8) more this turn. And since there is one transport we are unable to see, we shall assume that up to 8 marines built by GoW in 1260AD shall still be part of their invasion forces (GoW can use a variation of transport chaining, bringing new marines through Zayrut or Deep Dark Dungeon). Our defenses in Jackson and Dye Fields shall assume an attack by 44 marines in 1265AD, unless there is less on GoW's rooster in 1260AD.

Considering that tanks are almost as good defenders as infantries in Jackson (see the last table in this post for numbers), I suggest using mostly tanks to defend Jackson, saving infantries for other, more difficult to defend cities. I'd use 2 infantry (~8 marines), 15 tanks (~45 marines), and 5 cavalry to make Jackson impossible to take by GoW marines. It's a bit overdone, but we need to consider hitpoints lost to possible bombing...

As MZ's lines in #apolytonisdg suggest, Jackson was bombed this turn and lost 2 pop points. We might want to add 1-2 workers to the city to bring it back to "safe" (as in "metropolis-enough") and productive level. Also... opening the save, I'll check Jackson using the F1 trick and change its production to infantry or fighter, should we fall short of 100S needed to complete a tank there this turn.

As for Dye Fields, that's a city more difficult to defend, as it has no hill defense bonus. We shall definitely add workers to increase the city population and overdo its defenses if at all possible. 10 infantries (~30 marines), 10 tanks (~20 marines), and 5 cavalry?

That would be 12 infantries, 25 tanks, and 10 cavalries to defend Jackson and Dye Fields. BTW... the marine numbers in parantheses denote how many marines you need to have a 50%+ chance of killing the defending unit.

If GoW have a spy with us, they will probably be smart enough to attack no cities and instead land on the hill NE-NE of Dye Fields (best defense bonus) or grassland S-S of Jackson (tanks threatening two cities at once). We have to destroy the fortress S-S of Jackson this turn!

If there is any target near Jackson allowing our ships to hit and run back to safety of the harbour, we should do it, even if we just bomb GoW ships. Every hp off is good, as long as we lose none.

	08-11-2004 06:42									#2
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Western Theatre

A doctored intel map of the Western Theatre follows. It includes all information gathered last turn. The positions of our ships are hopefully accurate as of hitting the end-turn button:



What we do in the Western Ocean in 1260AD will mostly depend on what GS have done.

Although I would be more than happy to see them doing that move, GS will hardly move SGSF within the range of our land-based artillery in Danger Zone South (this zone is fully in range of our coastal batteries). If they really do it (although I cannot imagine why would they do it), we blast them to smithereens (all ships 1/1) and use all we have in the area (H.B.S. Tisiphone, H.B.S. Myrmidon, H.B.S. Castor, H.B.S. Pollus and 3 new DDs from Tipperary, Abilene, and Q.M., plus submarines as needed) to sink their escort. Remaining 1/1 transports will be easy to block with our own ships - in the first place, though, we'd have to block the GS transports from having a shot at the artillery used for our barrage, of course. But that should be fairly easy to do.

But I do not believe GS would make such a stupid mistake. They will most probably appear at Abilene W-W-W or Abilene W-W-SW, just outside of range of our land-based artillery. This position will allow them to threaten Abilene with a blitz-through attack, and Tipperary with a regular or blitz-through attack. Abilene W-W-SW is better from the "threat" PoV (blitz-through possible via both Abilene and Tipperary), while Abilene W-W-W is better from the "strong escort" PoV (carrier and his escort DDs would be able to join the rest of the fleet).

Which, however, puts Q.M. outside of reach of SGSF! Which, in turn, means, that we will only need to block Q.M. West against the eight NGSF DDs...

Now... assuming we leave SGSF be (because we'll be unable to stop it anyway), we could use 6 full health DDs (1 new from Sandonorico, 1 new from Q.M., 2 existing and 1 new from Abilene, plus H.B.S. Myrmidon) and 1 submarine (U-Sa1) to block Q.M. West. That's 7 ships total.

As we only need one more ship than how many GS would be able to attack Q.M. West with in 1265AD to make Q.M. safe from a seaborne attack, we will only be short of 2 ships... so, I suggest we attack NGSF with all our 4/4 BBs. We will certainly not break through the DD escort, but we should be able to cripple it enough to make blocking Q.M. West a trivial affair (once we sink 2 GS DDs, we'll be safe).

If we're lucky and sink more, we'll even be able to use DDs from Sandonorico and Q.M. to attack NGSF... since all we will need is N+1 ships at Q.M. West, where N is the number of remaining GS escort vessels in NGSF - and that number should be fairly low, after we hit them with Task Force North (we can safely ignore the carrier and transports, as those are ultimately unable to break through even just a single 4/4 DD placed at Q.M. West).

I am not going beyond this one idea, since everything else (and even this) depends on where we find the GS fleets after we open the save.

This time, I am not going to do any moves until posting about the situation in the forum. We will likely sit on the save for at least 24 hours.

This turn will be crucial for us.

	08-11-2004 06:57									#3
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DeepO's battle report suggests SGSF moved E-SE-SE to Abilene W-W-W-SW, as that's the only tile allowing GS to concentrate their forces while still killing what they killed (U-Q1 and H.B.S. Tisiphone).

That would not be bad at all... impossible to blitz through Tipperary, Q.M. out of reach.

	09-11-2004 02:31									#4
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Mulling the coming turn over in my head, there is one idea that keeps popping up... and it's related to spies.

Lots of my thoughts on what will happen in 1265AD start with "if GS have a spy with us, they will do this and this to make our position as bad as possible". We will never be able to rely on GS having no spy with us, so we will always have to plan our defenses as if they had one - but the difference is that if GS have to attack without a spy, they will not be able to adjust their strategy. And that could possibly be a big deal.

Up to this coming turn, it's been crucial for us to know how many units GS have had - so that we'd be able to plan our defenses accordingly. However, from 1265AD, when landings and seaborne assaults are to take place (I consider this a sure thing), the importance of our spy with GS will diminish somewhat - whatever new units they will be rushing in, they will not be part of the "D-Day" operation anyway.

OTOH... if GS have a spy with us (and frankly, they would be extremely daring or totally crazy to attack us without having one), it would be priceless for them right now - all they would need to pick the weakest link of our defenses would be some gold to pay for investigations of all our cities within their striking range. If they did not have this information, they would be more likely to take a suboptimal move, increasing our own chances to survive the initial blow in a good shape.

So... considering that a loss of our own spy in Stormia would be something we could live with even for a few turns (as we are not going to attack any of their cities within that timeframe anyway - and whatever new units GS build, they will need 2-3 turn time to get over the Big Pool anyway), I believe trying to expose a GS spy "just for sure" might be worth the gold, if we have it... (last turn, the cost of this operation was ~300g, if done "safely").

The worst thing that can happen is that we lose our spy with GS and waste ~300g, having to replant the spy for some more gold. The best thing that can happen is that GS would be denied information about our defenses in 1265AD, having to attack blindly. IMHO, this sounds like a risk to take. I am not saying we are drowning in gold and I am not saying our own spy in Stormia is useless. But compared to the possibility of GS attacking with no information about our defenses, it sounds like an acceptable risk that can possibly pay off big.

I suggest that, as long as we have gold to do so, our last thing to do in 1260AD should be an attempt to expose a GS spy 'safely'.

What do you think?

Look at the Study of Espionage Missions by Oystein at CFC for detailed info on how espionage missions work... unless espionage was changed from PtW to C3C, the likelihood of our attempt succeeding is 68%. Note, please, that for the purpose of "success/failure" classification, even failing because of GS having no spy with us could still be considered a success, as GS would be having no spy with us in 1265AD - and would have to try planting one.

Also... should we fail for whatever reason, we should immediately try to re-plant our spy, as the 'fail' flag would be clear.

	09-11-2004 04:07									#5
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

I absolutely agree with your suggestion. Let's expose that GS spy.

Of course, GoW may have a spy (hmmm) and they would share info with GS.

If we are successful with GS, whould be do the same for Gow? I think we should.

	09-11-2004 04:30									#6
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Fortunately for us, even if GoW had a spy in Legopolis, he would be of no use to GS - GoW would only able to provide info 1 turn old to GS, which is as good as useless.

I am not sure trying to expose a potential GoW's spy would be as important as trying to expose a potential GS' spy - GoW will only have two targets within their range, Jackson and Dye Fields. Out of these two, I am quite positive they will attack Dye Fields (if anything at all), as it is quite easy to make Jackson impossible to take. Plus, GoW may be able to contract ND for city investigations, which we cannot prevent (ND is at peace with us, so an embassy is all they need to peek at our cities).

Dunno... it will all depend on how much gold we'll be left with. As I would only try to expose enemy spies at the end of the turn, we should have time enough to decide based upon our situation then.

	09-11-2004 10:38									#7
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I definitely agree that the GS spy is more dangerous.

As you stated, we can make other decision at the end of the turn.

	10-11-2004 07:57									#8
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My question is do we have enough units to stop both invasions?

I have a feelling that the transports with just three escorts may be empty. I mean would you risk sending out a aramda of transports with just three escorts?

As for the GS spy, we might as well go for it now. Allthough we could leave the GS spy in place, stuff the city we dont want them to attack with defenders and leave the city we want them to attack with a small amount of units then change things at the last min to trick them into attacking were we want them to attack. What do you guys think about that?

	10-11-2004 12:11									#9
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

quote: Originally posted by Jack_www My question is do we have enough units to stop both invasions?

Yes and no. We would not be able to completely rule out a successfull seaborne attack at our city - if GS get extremely lucky with RNG, we could theoretically lose a city. But we have units enough to rule out a blitz-through attack that would cost us the whole game.

quote: Originally posted by Jack_www I have a feelling that the transports with just three escorts may be empty. I mean would you risk sending out a aramda of transports with just three escorts?

Yes, I would (plus, SGSF is actually escorted by 6 DDs and a carrier). Assuming GS had a spy with us on the first turn of this war, they knew our navy numbers. Their submarine had our BBs pinpointed in the far North and they sank all our DDs during their initial strike. Except possibly rushed ships, they knew there was nothing to fear in the South, but (maybe) submarines - and for those, the escort would have been adequate.

Keep in mind that we only rushed DDs in Abilene and Tipperary last turn and this turn because our submarine spotted those transports early - and GS had no way of knowing they were spotted.

So - yes, I would risk sending 11 transports with just 6 DDs under these circumstances. I would actually feel pretty safe... and btw, unless they move to within the range of our land based artillery, we'll still be unable to crack through their escort, despite all those rushed DDs and withdrawn submarines.

quote: Originally posted by Jack_www As for the GS spy, we might as well go for it now. Allthough we could leave the GS spy in place, stuff the city we dont want them to attack with defenders and leave the city we want them to attack with a small amount of units then change things at the last min to trick them into attacking were we want them to attack. What do you guys think about that?

How would you do that? GS is only going to investigate our cities on the turn they attack - we will have no way of moving our units "at the last minute"...

	10-11-2004 17:02									#10
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Attacking those DDs is actually quite necessarry. We must let those transports unprotected, otherwise they could just pull the following trick: upload the tanks and infantries on our shores, then withdraw the transports in a position where they would threaten again 2 or 3 cities. So we would have 50 tanks on our shores and 40 marines on the transports threatening us; we just wouldn't be able to defend against them. So have to make them move away the transports after the initial landing/strike.

Unfortunately there is no way to stop GoW doing this I hope they won't have this idea. I would definitely do it: land between Jackson and Dye Fields with all their tanks, then withdraw the transports to the position where they can threaten both cities with the marines. Deadly danger, to say the least. We would have to defend against 80 units, not 40 (aprox). I have no idea how to stop this

As for the GS spy, trying to catch it seems fine fo me.

	10-11-2004 19:21									#11
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Yeah now that I think about it, it is not such a great idea. So forget I even brought it up. Just try to reveal their spy.

	10-11-2004 19:40									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Tiberius Attacking those DDs is actually quite necessarry. We must let those transports unprotected, otherwise they could just pull the following trick: upload the tanks and infantries on our shores, then withdraw the transports in a position where they would threaten again 2 or 3 cities. So we would have 50 tanks on our shores and 40 marines on the transports threatening us; we just wouldn't be able to defend against them. So have to make them move away the transports after the initial landing/strike. Unfortunately there is no way to stop GoW doing this I hope they won't have this idea. I would definitely do it: land between Jackson and Dye Fields with all their tanks, then withdraw the transports to the position where they can threaten both cities with the marines. Deadly danger, to say the least. We would have to defend against 80 units, not 40 (aprox). I have no idea how to stop this

Amen.

What Tibi says is 100% correct. We must force them to land. To land all they have - otherwise, we will have to keep our defenses split, which will allow them to take at least one city and start using their combat settlers, effectively "crawling" into our interior. Then - game over.

	11-11-2004 08:56									#13
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We have the save as of an hour ago.

	11-11-2004 10:43									#14
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I did a quick look at the save, and I saw no surprises. All the armadas are just out of artillery range.

I can see no improvements to our plans. I say full steam ahead on all plans.

	11-11-2004 13:48									#15
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I have opened the save up - see the log in the chronicle entry. I am going to put maps together now.

There are hardly any big surprises indeed... though, I would not say there are no surprises at all. For some reason, GS split SGSF into two formations again - the one more to the North has 8 transports, 1 carrier, and 5 DDs. A smaller one to the South has 1 (3/4 only) DD and 3 transports - this one should be easy to eliminate, considering we can bomb it with 2 bombers and attack with as many as 2 submarines and 5 DDs... If we can take this group out (and I believe we should be able to), it would probably be safe to leave Tipperary undefended or very lightly defended.

	11-11-2004 14:56									#16
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Western Theatre

This is how the situation looks after we have opened the 1260AD save:

	11-11-2004 16:17									#17
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Northern GS Fleet (NGSF)

NGSF has been split into two groups.

There is a small detachment force out in the ocean, consisting of 1 vet DD, 1 carrier, and 1 transport. Not quite sure what good they are there... considering that GS have added 8 more marines (or so, not 100% sure about the number - but I am sure they didn't have 55 of them, which is what they have got now) to their rooster and the armada we spotted last turn had 13 transports only (and still has just that many), it could be a trace of a transport-chain used to move the newly built marines from a port to the core group... there are 2 submarines (a vet and a regular) of ours capable of attacking this detachment force - but I do not think it would be such a great idea to attack it. It's more important for us to be able to see without being seen than sinking these ships - they can do no harm to us in 1265AD.

The core of NGSF, 7 vet and 1 regular DDs escorting 13 transports, is exactly where we've been expecting it - in Danger Zone North, W-W-SW of Sandonorico, threatening Forkmouth, Sandonorico, and Quanto Mechanico. It's just outside of range of our land-based artillery, but well within the reach of Task Force North (TFN) - most our BBs actually sit right N of the NGSF core (even H.B.S. Legopolis could join the party, if needed).

We have 10 combat ships capable of attacking the core of NGSF: 7 battleships (six 4/4 ones, one 2/4 one), 2 vet DDs (newly built in Sandonorico and Q.M.), and 1 vet submarine (U-Sa1, which is S-S-SW-SW of the GS fleet). Considering that almost all GS DDs are full 4/4 health, it seems our chances to kill their whole escort are pretty low. It's not near-zero, but it's low - the probability of the eight 4/4 ships to win their battles is slightly less than 20% (overall). However, individual odds are not that bad: BBs have a 83.3% chance to sink their 4/4 DD, 4/4 DDs still sink a 4/4 DD in 2 out of 3 cases...

So... as Leo said, there seems to be little reason to change our plans here. We just ram everything we've got around into this fleet and pray loud. If we are lucky, we may reduce the DD escort to something quite weak, not allowing GS to parade along the coast in 1265AD.

The proposed order of attack:
First, we attack with all six 4/4 BBs (odds to win: 83.3%). They attack directly S and do not move any further, if victorious - to allow for maximum flexibility after the whole battle is over. Then, 4/4 DDs from Sandonorico and Quanto Mechanico (odds to win: 66.4%) attack. It seems the tile they will attack from is not that important... we just keep in mind that the only tile within the reach of the new 4/4 DD finished in Q.M. this turn that is outside of any GS ship range in 1265AD, is E of the NGSF - thus, we either attack from SE or E with this DD, so that we can move to Sandonorico W-SW, if surviving the battle.

Then we attack with H.B.S. Legopolis or U-Sa1, depending on which one of them will have better odds of killing the strongest remaining DD. Then we send in the other one.

And that will be it.

BTW... because of where GS moved SGSF, our plan to block Q.M. West is now very difficult to carry out - that tile is within the reach of both NGSF and SGSF, so we'd have to stuff ships there enough to stop attacks by DDs from both their fleets... we'd have to be extremely lucky with our strike at NGSF to still be able to pull the trick...

The number of GS DDs capable of attacking Q.M. West will be 5+(8-V1) (5 DDs from the SGSF, the rest is how many DDs are left in the NGSF - V1 is the number of our victorious attacks there). The number of our ships capable of defending that tile will be 3+V2 (3 DDs from Abilene and whatever survives the strike at NGSF and is still capable of reaching Q.M. West - means only victorius BBs now N of NGSF... denoted V2).

Means, for every 4/4 BB lost, we'll need one other non-4/4-BB (a DD, sub, or 2/4 BB) to win to be safe at Q.M. West, since if just a single 4/4 BB loses, the balance would be 5+(8-5)=8 attackers against 3+(6-1)=8 defenders. GS would have to be extremely lucky to break through in this case, but we are talking about leaving Q.M. completely undefended here - we could take NO risk at all.

That's not really... uhm... encouraging...

	11-11-2004 17:47									#18
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Southern GS Fleet (NGSF)

SGSF has been split into two groups, too.

There is a small force composed of one 3/4 DD and three transports W-W-SW-SW of Abilene. This is just plain suspicious... such a weak escort... but alas, we can rely on no assumptions here - the transports can still be full of marines, for all we know. We can bomb this group with 2 bombers from Abilene and attack with 7 ships total: 2 vet submarines (U-H1 and U-H3), 3 vet DDs (H.B.S. Myrmidon, H.B.S. Pollux in Abilene, and the newly built DD in Tipperary), and 2 regular DDs (H.B.S. Castor and the newly built DD, both in Abilene). This sounds like pretty good odds to wipe this force out... even if it turned out to be just a decoy, we would be able to safely leave Tipperary out of the defense equation - and that, gentlemen, would be awesome! Tipperary is one of our most difficult to defend cities, since it's on flat ground and not a metropolis.

The core of SGSF is now N-N-N of the smaller SGSF force (W-W-SW-SW-SW of Q.M.). It consists of 3 veteran and 2 regular DDs, a carrier, and 8 transports. It's capable of mounting a blitz-through attack at Q.M. or Abilene. If there were no other operations of ours, we could use up to 6 ships to attack it: 1 vet submarine (U-Sa1, N-NE of SGSF), 3 vet DDs (H.B.S. Myrmidon, H.B. Pollux from Abilene, and a newly built DD from Q.M.), and 2 regular DDs (both now in Abilene).

We should, however, keep in mind that this would compromise attacks at NGSF (using U-Sa1 and the new 4/4 DD from Q.M.) and the smaller SGSF fleet (using the bombers and almost all DDs in the area). To sink all six DDs, all our attackers would have to win, because at a certain moment, the 4/4 GS carrier (stats 1/8/4) would become the top defender thanks to its defense of 8 (same as a DD, which is stats 12/8/5), leaving one of the DDs to be the last defender.

Completely or almost completely stripping NGSF of its escort and getting safely rid of the distraction SGSF fleet (being able to leave Tipperary defensesless) sounds like more important and easier to achieve goals than trying to expose the core of SGSF.

So... I am not 100% sure about the plan here, but IMHO, we should focus on the smaller force, using as much force to sink it as necessary. That would allow us to leave Tipperary defensless - after all, that would more than balance having to defend Q.M. (as Q.M. is a metro, thus having better defense bonus than Tipperary).

	11-11-2004 18:10									#19
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Because of the importance of this turn (and because I've got some work to do, too ), I'm going to wait until evening my time to start playing the turn. Say, 8pm GMT? I know that you guys from the US will not be home yet, but if I wait for you, I will get no sleep.

I hope you will have a couple of spare minutes to have a look and let me know if there's anything I should do differently. Currently, the plan would be:

1) throw everything we have at NGSF
2) sink the smaller SGSF force

Everything past these two operations would be subject to the results we get.

	11-11-2004 18:13									#20
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I agree completely. Having looked at the save I think on a good day, with the RNG in our favour we could possibly sink the 8 dds from NGSF and surround the transports meaning they can't land. GS would have to divert the escort from the larger SGSF force to break these transports out. At the very least it puts a spanner in their plans.

Worth a go

	12-11-2004 02:20									#21
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Alright, 8:15pm GMT. After sorting through all your responses , I guess it's time to roll the dice.

I am going to attack NGSF with all we have and then hopefully sink the detached part of SGSF as posted earlier today. Report should be up within half an hour.

God help us.

	12-11-2004 02:38									#22
	Inflate your Upload Space

FREAKIN' UNBELIEVABLE!!!!!

ALL EIGHT 4/4 SHIPS ATTACKING NGSF WON THEIR BATTLES!!! NGSF LEFT WITH NO ESCORT!!!

**** me if I hoped for such a result!

	12-11-2004 02:48									#23
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WOW!!!!!!

So we can build the sea wall, which would almost eliminate an amphib. assault on a city. I doubt that GS will attack with a fully loaded transport.

I hope our luck holds out. We still have the SGSF to attack (I hope the transports are full), and the spy mission. Please keep me posting the updates.

Leo

	12-11-2004 02:50									#24
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OK, before engaging the transports, here is the list of GS units as reported by our spy:

10 settlers
25 workers
4 explorers
55 marines
20 riflemen
40 infantry
70 tanks
18 mech. infantry
14 artillery
2 galleys
27 transports
2 carriers
12 destroyers
2 fighters

	12-11-2004 02:51									#25
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YAY !!!



So, should we attack with H.B.S Legopolis and U-Sa1 as well ? Maybe we could sink some full transports after all

	12-11-2004 02:55									#26
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As we are going to attack NGSF with both U-Sa1 and H.B.S. Legopolis, it does not matter which one goes first - both will be attacking a 4/4 transport. So, let's use the BB first, then sub.

BTW - I have updated the chronicle entry with the first eight attacks.

Stay tuned!

	12-11-2004 03:01									#27
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quote: Originally posted by Tiberius So, should we attack with H.B.S Legopolis and U-Sa1 as well ? Maybe we could sink some full transports after all

I believe this is a no-brainer. Sinking a transport with eight of anything would be golden. Considering the odds to sink a 4/4 transport are 74.5% (BB) and 79.2% (sub), I do not see any options here. Just gimme a sec, I need to calm down a bit...

Updates coming soon.

	12-11-2004 03:05									#28
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Damnit, you're killing me. I'm sitting in a hotel lobby in Stockholm at 11 PM waiting for the latest Lego war news! I must be crazy

GIMME THE DAMN NEWS !!!!!!!!!!!!

	12-11-2004 03:06									#29
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H.B.S. Legopolis sank a 4/4 transport with 8 marines aboard. Lost no hp, promoted to elite (3/5).

	12-11-2004 03:07									#30
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That's f***ing unbelievable