28-11-2004 16:51									#91
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quote: Iran doesn't "need" nukes because Israel has them. That's a phony argument. As long as they don't decide to attack Israel, what exactly do they have to fear?

US invasion.

Consider: Iran started the uranium enrichment process again right after US attacked their neighbour. Coincidence?

quote: Iran: What the **** are we going to do about it?

I don't think sending diplomats to take fake promises from clerics is gonna work jack **** unless our objective is to humiliate ourselves in front of the whole world. Iran is determined to get nukes now: they're afraid of US and hope that getting new evil boogie weapons will work as a deterrant.

	28-11-2004 16:54									#92
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It's pretty clear the Iranians want to do what the North Koreans did. That is make promises, buy time, take the pay off money, but secretly continue to develop nuclear weapons any way.

	28-11-2004 17:59									#93
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quote: Iran: What the **** are we going to do about it?

For now, continue to use the good cop/bad cop routine with the Euros to try to convince the Iranians to disband their program. If that doesn't work, you may have to offer serious concessions in return for Iranian cooperation (some sort of normalization of relations, most likely). If all else fails, military options will probably come into play. I'm sure we have guys planning out right now the best way to attempt to destroy or seriously degrade the Iranian weapons program via air strikes.

	28-11-2004 18:10									#94
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quote: Originally posted by Edan Maybe it's because you never made it? You stated that: I've shown examples where the technology has spread to, but where nuclear weapons have not proliferated.

Only as a matter of choice. If any of those countries decide that they do need nuclear weapons, they would have them in a matter of weeks.


And likewise, they can also help another country or organization build nuclear weapons - volountarily or not.

	28-11-2004 18:20									#95
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: Iran: What the **** are we going to do about it? For now, continue to use the good cop/bad cop routine with the Euros to try to convince the Iranians to disband their program. If that doesn't work, you may have to offer serious concessions in return for Iranian cooperation (some sort of normalization of relations, most likely). If all else fails, military options will probably come into play. I'm sure we have guys planning out right now the best way to attempt to destroy or seriously degrade the Iranian weapons program via air strikes.

Good luck.

I suppose you missed the part where they were conducting their program in a tunnel under half a mile of rock?

	28-11-2004 18:40									#96
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That's not the totality of their program. I doubt you can knock the entire program out, but you can certainly do serious damage. I'd prefer to avoid using that option, though...

	28-11-2004 18:42									#97
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How much do you think the Iranians are going to leave above ground that isn't easily replaceable if they think the US will send in the bombers? Let's not forget that we've already learned how vulnerable nuke reactors are to, say, Israeli bombs...

	28-11-2004 18:45									#98
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If it was easy to carry out all their enrichment programs in underground facilities, I'm sure they would do that. Lucky for us, it isn't that simple a task, though...

	28-11-2004 18:51									#99
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Easy enough. Easier to put it above ground, but certainly not worth risking losing it all...

The Iranians are going to get the bomb sooner or later. Probably within a decade. The technology is becoming more accessible all the time and we've already had 4 bad examples in the last 6 years. NK successfully developed nuclear weapons and is still standing. Iraq made a half-hearted attempt and is gone. India and Pakistan built themselves a nice little stockpile and everybody's forgiven them...

And it's not like Pakistan or NK are that much more technically adept than any of half a dozen other countries we'd rather not have nukes...

	28-11-2004 18:54									#100
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quote: The Iranians are going to get the bomb sooner or later. Probably within a decade.

I don't disagree. I was just laying out possible options, since someone seems to think there are none.

	28-11-2004 19:13									#101
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I'm pretty confident that nuking Iran to the stone age would stop them from getting nukes of their own for decades. Again, the question is whether the damage is less than that of letting the acquire nukes.

	28-11-2004 19:54									#102
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quote: Originally posted by VJ Consider: Iran started the uranium enrichment process again right after US attacked their neighbour. Coincidence?

What makes you think they ever stopped the enrichment process?

	28-11-2004 20:07									#103
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quote: Originally posted by General Ludd Only as a matter of choice. If any of those countries decide that they do need nuclear weapons, they would have them in a matter of weeks.

Perhaps, but they don't. Most countries that don't have a specific reason to get nuclear weapons don't, because they realize that uness there is a specific need to get them, they're far more expensivve to make and maintain and far more trouble than they're worth.

	28-11-2004 20:12									#104
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Iran: What the **** are we going to do about it?

Some possibilities for what we could do is:

• Do nothing and hope that everything will just work out.
  
• Pressure Russia to stop assissting Iran.
  
• Work diplomatically to try to get Iran to halt it's enrichment process.
  
• Put sanctions on Iran.
  
• Blockade Iran.
  
• Launch an air strike
  
• Invade Iran.
  

	28-11-2004 20:28									#105
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Iran wants nukes? I say let's send some...via Minuteman Missles.





just kidding

	28-11-2004 20:38									#106
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse I suppose you missed the part where they were conducting their program in a tunnel under half a mile of rock?

Apparently, I did miss that.

quote: The magazine said that according to the intelligence documents, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei personally issued a directive at the start of October to build the secret tunnel.

That suggests that they haven't yet been conducting their program in that tunnel.

I also couldn't find anything about the depth of the tunnel. Cite?

	28-11-2004 22:15									#107
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Good luck. I suppose you missed the part where they were conducting their program in a tunnel under half a mile of rock?

Bunker busters would finish that in a hurry, if we could find it.

	28-11-2004 23:18									#108
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Nobody is answering the question. Iran: What the **** are we going to do about it?

I'm going to mail them a giant card signed by dozens of people, calling for nuclear disarmnament and world peace, with lots of pretty flowers drawn on it.



flower power

	29-11-2004 01:25									#109
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Bunker busters would finish that in a hurry, if we could find it.

No they couldn't

	29-11-2004 03:48									#110
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From what I read in newspapers, its a production system which is spread out in dozens of secret sites, usually under hundreds of meters of rock or concrete.

I doubt Israel or the US could get 50% of that, even using their entire bomb stock.

	29-11-2004 06:32									#111
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Iran begun work on nukes when the Shah was in power- I think that if the Shah had remained in power Iran would already be a nuclear power like Pakistan. There is no rational reason why the Iranian regime should not seek nukes- they are in a bad neighborhood, they have unfriendly regimes all around, several of which are nuclear powers, and their vast supplies of oil mean that a sactions regime against them for an infraction of the NPT is not likely to happen any day. If the Iraninans really want it, they could just simply opt out of the NPT- they have the right.

A military attack will simply delay the program, but can;t stop it. Only a full sacle invasion could, and that is not going to happen.

I doubt an internal regime change would really end Iran's nuclear ambitions- we have India as a fine example of a democracy saying screw it, we want nukes too.

	29-11-2004 06:44									#112
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Unless you think these two countries have some divine right to stick their nose in everyone else's business (which is what Shrub seems to think), you can't blame countries like Iran for wanting to protect themselves.

I would say that the leaders of these countries have a sworn duty to protect their citizens. If they decide that Iran not having nukes is needed to accomplish this, then what do you expect them to do? Give in to some hairbrained notion of equality of rights among countries?

Maybe in a perfect world, but not the real one.

	29-11-2004 06:46									#113
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Iran begun work on nukes when the Shah was in power- I think that if the Shah had remained in power Iran would already be a nuclear power like Pakistan. There is no rational reason why the Iranian regime should not seek nukes- they are in a bad neighborhood, they have unfriendly regimes all around, several of which are nuclear powers, and their vast supplies of oil mean that a sactions regime against them for an infraction of the NPT is not likely to happen any day. If the Iraninans really want it, they could just simply opt out of the NPT- they have the right. A military attack will simply delay the program, but can;t stop it. Only a full sacle invasion could, and that is not going to happen. I doubt an internal regime change would really end Iran's nuclear ambitions- we have India as a fine example of a democracy saying screw it, we want nukes too.

All this is true. It does not however address our right to act in our self interest. If we decide that they are a threat to us, then how can we not act in some manner to oppose this?

	29-11-2004 06:53									#114
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quote: Originally posted by PLATO All this is true. It does not however address our right to act in our self interest. If we decide that they are a threat to us, then how can we not act in some manner to oppose this?

I am a firm believer in deterence, and I sure as hell do not think that Iranian nukes are a threat to the US itself- maybe to our regional interest, but no the US. As for the tired "terrorist" arguement- the Iranians used Chemical weapons in the Iran-Iraq war- if Iran wanted to pass any WMD capability to Hizbullah, they have had 16 years to do it, and as of today no one has even claimed they have.

As for acting in our self interests- I don;t think we have the ability to stop a drive by Iran to make nukes, nor are we willing to do anything that might make the Iranians less jumpy right now, so we should plan for a future with Iran as a nuclear state.

	29-11-2004 06:59									#115
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I would still say Iran getting nukes is a grave mistake. First NK, now Iran, they basically say FU we'll get them anyway. Well that is what always happened with countries getting them, so this is nothing new. But this sets a pretext to other nations as well, hostile or not. Hey, if you're not a hostile country, ****, I bet no one even bothers to write about it, since hostile ones only get 'well, damn it that's bad!'.

That also leads to a simpel point that yet another country posesses the cabability. And they are now also able to pass the technology to other folks, who are not yet capable but willing. They can form blocks if another country gets nukes and at that point, it doesn't matter what we think or say, we're in a stalemate or even at losing point of possible nuclear confrontation. Basically, it won't get any better in the future. It can only get worse, nuclear wise. So I'm all for action. What ever it takes. Well, not what ever it takes, but let's just say I wouldn't protest if they were gunned down and smashed. The nukes that is. And the future ability for some years to come.

	29-11-2004 07:00									#116
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quote: Originally posted by GePap As for acting in our self interests- I don;t think we have the ability to stop a drive by Iran to make nukes, nor are we willing to do anything that might make the Iranians less jumpy right now, so we should plan for a future with Iran as a nuclear state.

I agree. I do think that our self interest and regional interest dictate that we make it as politically and economically difficult as we can however.

The face of the ME changes yet again when they become a nuclear state. Unfortunately, it will probably lead to a declared Israeli state...and then a very unfortunate arms race.

	29-11-2004 07:02									#117
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quote: Originally posted by Pekka I would still say Iran getting nukes is a grave mistake. First NK, now Iran, they basically say FU we'll get them anyway. Well that is what always happened with countries getting them, so this is nothing new. But this sets a pretext to other nations as well, hostile or not. Hey, if you're not a hostile country, ****, I bet no one even bothers to write about it, since hostile ones only get 'well, damn it that's bad!'.

And why should anyone have nukes? As long as the five nuclear powers decide to keep them, as they all have, and three states are allowed to have them free of consequence the arguements for stopping others can solely be based on past regime behavior.

quote: That also leads to a simpel point that yet another country posesses the cabability. And they are now also able to pass the technology to other folks, who are not yet capable but willing. They can form blocks if another country gets nukes and at that point, it doesn't matter what we think or say, we're in a stalemate or even at losing point of possible nuclear confrontation. Basically, it won't get any better in the future. It can only get worse, nuclear wise. So I'm all for action. What ever it takes. Well, not what ever it takes, but let's just say I wouldn't protest if they were gunned down and smashed. The nukes that is. And the future ability for some years to come.

Except that no one is about to invade Iran, and that is what it will take, unless the regime decides it does not need nukes.

	29-11-2004 07:04									#118
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quote: Originally posted by Pekka That also leads to a simpel point that yet another country posesses the cabability. And they are now also able to pass the technology to other folks, who are not yet capable but willing. They can form blocks if another country gets nukes and at that point, it doesn't matter what we think or say, we're in a stalemate or even at losing point of possible nuclear confrontation. Basically, it won't get any better in the future. It can only get worse, nuclear wise. So I'm all for action. What ever it takes. Well, not what ever it takes, but let's just say I wouldn't protest if they were gunned down and smashed. The nukes that is. And the future ability for some years to come.

The world does not have the will to act. As usual, world politics will be reactive, not proactive.

If the nuclear states would band together and declare "No More!" and show the political and military will to back it up, then there might be progress. Fat chance, however.

	29-11-2004 07:04									#119
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The only problem I see is that at some point I do fear a military attack on Iran's nuclear installations will be carried out- which will slow down Iran but will also allow the regime to crack down hard internally by claiming to be under attack, and the Iranians will act out in Iraq.

	29-11-2004 07:04									#120
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"And why should anyone have nukes?"

Who knows. Don't think we know everyones mindset and logics. There just might be none.

"Except that no one is about to invade Iran, and that is what it will take, unless the regime decides it does not need nukes."

no one will invade Iran. And in the future, no one will invade Iran.