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Asher is offline Asher
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Nov 1999
time: 22:18
Unhappy  Old Post 03-12-2004 19:24 Visit Asher's homepage!
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IBM to sell its PC and ThinkPad business Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/03/t...ner=rssuserland

quote:
I.B.M. Said to Put Its PC Business on the Market
By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN and STEVE LOHR

Published: December 3, 2004

International Business Machines, whose first I.B.M. PC in 1981 moved personal computing out of the hobby shop and into the corporate and consumer mainstream, has put the business up for sale, people close to the negotiations said yesterday.

While I.B.M. long ago ceded the lead in the personal computer market to Dell and Hewlett-Packard so it could focus instead on the more lucrative corporate server and computer services business, a sale would nonetheless bring the end of an era in an industry that it helped invent. The sale, likely to be in the $1 billion to $2 billion range, is expected to include the entire range of desktop, laptop and notebook computers made by I.B.M.

The retreat from the business may be the ultimate acknowledgement that the personal computer has become a staple of everyday life, a commodity product, yielding very slim profits. The companies that make the most money from PC's these days are Microsoft and Intel - whose software and chips are the standard for most of the personal computers sold, regardless of the maker.

According to the people close to the negotiations, I.B.M. is in serious discussions with Lenovo, China's largest maker of personal computers, and at least one other potential buyer for the unit. Lenovo was formerly known as Legend.

A spokesman for I.B.M., Edward Barbini, said last night, "I.B.M. has a policy of not confirming or denying rumors."

If I.B.M.'s personal computer business ends up being sold to Lenovo, it would continue the migration of high-technology manufacturing to China and Taiwan.

In the 23 years since I.B.M. lent its prowess in mainframe computers to the production of desktop machines, it has been widely criticized for having destined the machines to commodity status by giving Microsoft and Intel the rights to those essential standards. And although Apple Computer holds less than 4 percent of the personal computing market worldwide, it has been able to command relatively high prices and richer profits because it has controlled the software and hardware that goes into its machines.

A sale of the personal computer business would be a step away from I.B.M.'s traditional emphasis on the size of its revenue as a measure of its corporate power. The PC business represents about 12 percent of I.B.M.'s annual revenue of $92 billion.

For nearly a decade, though, some industry analysts have urged I.B.M. to get out of that business as it made only a modest profit or lost money. For this year, analysts have expected a pretax profit of less than $100 million.

I.B.M. executives long resisted that course, arguing that personal computers were technology products its corporate customers wanted. It held on to the business on the theory that it helped hold on to customers.

But in the most recent quarter, I.B.M. ranked a distant third in worldwide PC sales, with 5.6 percent of the market, according to Gartner, the market research firm. Dell was the leader with 16.8 percent of the world market, and Hewlett-Packard, which has absorbed Compaq Computer, had 15 percent.

A sale now, if it happens, would be consistent with the strategy pursued by Samuel J. Palmisano, who became I.B.M.'s chief executive early in 2002. He has sold hardware businesses where profits were slender and growth prospects were limited, like its hard disk drive business, which was sold to Hitachi.

Instead, Mr. Palmisano has bet on expanding the company's services business, automating a full array of operations - from product design to sales-order processing - for corporate customers. I.B.M. now casts itself as a company that does not simply sell technology but serves as a consulting partner to help its customers use technology to increase the efficiency and competitiveness of their businesses. As part of that strategy, he bought PricewaterhouseCoopers Consulting for $3.5 billion, in a deal that closed in October 2002.

"Palmisano's getting out of businesses that aren't growth opportunities and concentrating on what I.B.M. does best," said Mark Stahlman, an analyst at Carris & Company. "PC's are not where the growth is."

To trim costs, I.B.M. has steadily retreated from the manufacture of its PC's. In January 2002, it sold its desktop PC manufacturing operations in the Untied States and Europe to Sanmina-SCI, based in San Jose, Calif. I.B.M. now confines its role in PC's to design and product development out of its offices in Raleigh, N.C., with all the I.B.M.-brand desktop or notebook computers made by contract manufacturers around the world.

Leslie Fiering, a research vice president at Gartner, has predicted consolidation in the PC industry over the next few years.

"Exiting the market may be the only logical choice for global vendors bleeding profits and struggling for share," she wrote in a recent research report. And she noted that Hewlett-Packard, a broad-based technology company where PC's are only part of a much larger business, might face pressures similar to I.B.M.'s.

"The PC divisions of H. P. and I.B.M." Ms. Fiering wrote, "are vulnerable to being spun off if their drag on margins and profitability are deemed too great by their parent companies."

In the meantime, she said, Asian vendors like Lenovo "appear well positioned to leverage their strong local-market standing and low-cost operating models into a global presence."

Asia has increasingly become a major hub for technology manufacturing. More and more chip making is done in the contract factories, like Taiwan Semiconductor, and at new foundries in China.

Still, in the semiconductor industry, Intel and I.B.M. still have big factories in the United States, and Advanced Micro Devices, Intel's most prominent rival in chip making, has a leading-edge plant in Germany.

Personal computer making has followed the same path to Asia, especially in the case of notebook machines made in China and Taiwan. Lenovo has had long ties with I.B.M. It got its start in 1984 as a distributor of personal computers from I.B.M. and AST, the Taiwan PC maker.




I hope the ThinkPad line stays alive and how it is if someone else buys it. It's the only line of laptops I'll buy.

Asher is offline Asher
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Calgary, Alberta
Nov 1999
time: 22:18
  Old Post 03-12-2004 19:28 Visit Asher's homepage!
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From CBS:

quote:
IBM to sell PC business -- report
By CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:25 AM ET Dec. 3, 2004

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- International Business Machines has put its personal computer business up for sale and expects to get $1 billion to $2 billion for its desktops, laptops and notebooks, according to a media report Friday.

IBM (IBM: news, chart, profile) is in discussions with Lenovo Group Ltd (HK:992: news, chart, profile), the company formerly known as Legend that is China's largest maker of personal computers, and at least one other company, the New York Times reported in its online edition, citing unnamed people close to the talks.

IBM, which built its first personal computer in 1981, was of the pioneering companies that brought PCs into the business and consumer mainstream worldwide. But IBM sold its PC manufacturing operations in 2002 and now contributes only product design and development to the personal computers that carry its name, the Times said.

IBM refused to comment on the report of the impending sale, the Times said. The PC business represents about 12 percent of IBM's annual revenue of $92 billion, the Times said.

But the unit has been losing ground for a decade and this year analysts have expected a pretax profit of less than $100 million, the Times said.

IBM currently ranks third in the worldwide PC market, with 5.6 percent share behind Dell's 16.8 percent and Hewlett-Packard's 15 percent, according to the Times.

A sale would be consistent with Chief Executive Samuel J. Palmisano's strategy of selling hardware businesses with slim profits and limited growth prospects, the Times said.

Shares of IBM closed ahead of the news Thursday at $95.76, down 12 cents or 0.13 percent, but rose as high as $96.44, up 68 cents, in light after-hours trading.


I hope this is a joke...they may sell the ThinkPad line to a Chinese PC maker? Ugh. The stomach turns.

laurentius is offline laurentius
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Jun 2001
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 19:45
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I can already imagine you secretly buying Dell laptops in few years time

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 19:58
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Asher is offline Asher
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 20:08 Visit Asher's homepage!
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I think I'd go Toshiba over Dell.

I need to have a Trackpoint...touchpads aren't nearly as efficient.

Az is offline Az
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Apr 2000
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 20:27
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I don't think it's a smart decision... but I guess they know better...

Atahualpa is offline Atahualpa
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Mar 1999
time: 06:18
  Old Post 03-12-2004 20:38 Visit Atahualpa's homepage!
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Funny I pictured they'd have better margins than others, overpriced as they have been.

I guess I should buy Dell stocks now.

Asher is offline Asher
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Nov 1999
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 20:43 Visit Asher's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Atahualpa
Funny I pictured they'd have better margins than others, overpriced as they have been.

ThinkPads have high-quality components in them, are put under a lot of testing/validation, and they have great warranty coverage.

The reason the price is high isn't a huge profit margin, it's because they're built with quality in mind.

Which is why they're the best damn laptops out there.

Az is offline Az
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 20:45
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I didn't know you were in Marketing, Asher.

Asher is offline Asher
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Nov 1999
time: 22:18
  Old Post 03-12-2004 20:48 Visit Asher's homepage!
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I've used, owned, and loved ThinkPads well before I worked for IBM.

Atahualpa is offline Atahualpa
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Mar 1999
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 20:53 Visit Atahualpa's homepage!
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quote:
ThinkPads had high-quality components in them, were put under a lot of testing/validation, and they had great warranty coverage.

The reason the price is high is huge profit margin, it's because they have to return the $2 billion investment in brand quickly.

Which is why they're the worst damn laptops out there.




Okay, we can only hope for the best. It's sad that quality manufacturers leave the scene. I guess however this shows that even quality is not enough to make profits in this field. Overall this of course is a bad development. Especially with notebooks which you can hardly assemble on your own and you always have to rely on some brand's quality...

Asher is offline Asher
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Nov 1999
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 20:57 Visit Asher's homepage!
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quote:
I guess however this shows that even quality is not enough to make profits in this field.

Eh? They still made $100M in profit on the division.

The problem is Sam Palimisano is all about growth. He thinks IBM resources are better used in higher-margin, high-growth areas. The division was still very profitable.

mrmitchell is offline mrmitchell
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Sep 2002
time: 23:18
  Old Post 03-12-2004 21:14
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Whoah whoah whoah. You got a division that makes $100M of profits and he's selling it anyways?

Now I could see selling it if it was making a loss. The price wouldn't change much then because of the whole idea, wow, holy sh!t, you're buying IBM, the oldest, most respected brand for PCs.

This Palimisano guy must be a few cards short of a deck, because it just don't seem like a good idea.

Asher, don't you work for IBM? Hopefully your job isn't in danger of being shipped off to China.

Az is offline Az
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MACEDONIA - It's the name of the sovereign country to the north of Greece
Apr 2000
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 21:16
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Hey,it depends on how much he sells it for.

The value in the brand will be lost forever, tho.

Asher is offline Asher
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Nov 1999
time: 22:18
  Old Post 03-12-2004 21:21 Visit Asher's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by mrmitchell
Asher, don't you work for IBM? Hopefully your job isn't in danger of being shipped off to China.

Nah, I'm fine.

IBM is still making servers and supercomputers and such, which is what I work with.

The stuff we work with is growing very rapidly and has huge profit margins (we're talking about Fortune 500 companies who still pay $50,000/year in a service contract for a COBOL compiler for their 1970s-era mainframe that hasn't made a call to tech support since the 80s, and places like the LLNL which spend hundreds of millions of dollars on supercomputers yearly).

Atahualpa is offline Atahualpa
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Mar 1999
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 21:28 Visit Atahualpa's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Asher

Eh? They still made $100M in profit on the division.

The problem is Sam Palimisano is all about growth. He thinks IBM resources are better used in higher-margin, high-growth areas. The division was still very profitable.


OTOH, if he sells it for $2 billion, he had made all the profit for the next 20 years in one single day (assuming that profits don't drop).

Whaleboy is offline Whaleboy
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Jan 2003
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 21:32 Visit Whaleboy's homepage!
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Acer are pretty good aren't they?

Asher is offline Asher
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 21:37 Visit Asher's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Whaleboy
Acer are pretty good aren't they?

They may be decent, but they're no IBM...

Agathon is offline Agathon
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Dec 2002
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 22:39
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Meanwhile Apple stock is up this year.

So much for those cretins like Paul Thurrott who have long predicted Apple's death.

I guess IBM just can't hack it in the world of personal computing.

Q Cubed is offline Q Cubed
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Apr 1999
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 22:45 Visit Q Cubed's homepage!
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christ, everything asher's saying about ibm's laptops... i've been saying.



I THOUGHT THAT FIRST, YOU COPYCAT!

Agathon is offline Agathon
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 22:52
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There was a story doing the rounds the other day that three of the major PC manufacturers will be forced out of the business by 2007.

I guess IBM jumped the gun.

Asher is offline Asher
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 22:54 Visit Asher's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Agathon
Meanwhile Apple stock is up this year.

So much for those cretins like Paul Thurrott who have long predicted Apple's death.

I guess IBM just can't hack it in the world of personal computing.

IBM stock is up this year as well.

Who cares about Apple?

Apple needs IBM to survive right now...

Apple's a niche computer maker on the way to joining the ranks of other consumer electronics makers.

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 22:55
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quote:
Originally posted by Azazel
I don't think it's a smart decision... but I guess they know better...


Low margin or not it's hard to see how someone could be taken seriously in the hardware business unless they sell a full line of computers. I'm sensing IBM is doing what AT&T did in the 80's; starting a slow downward spiral. Hopefully not but we'll see.

Asher is offline Asher
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quote:
Originally posted by Oerdin
Low margin or not it's hard to see how someone could be taken seriously in the hardware business unless they sell a full line of computers. I'm sensing IBM is doing what AT&T did in the 80's; starting a slow downward spiral. Hopefully not but we'll see.

IBM's high-end customers don't care about desktops or laptops, they're fundamentally different markets.

They want reliable solutions with high performance and great service, and all of this is independent of the small PC market.

You have to remember, these aren't typical customers IBM caters to. They cater to customers who do their research, customers who will be spending millions of dollars without blinking. These kinds of customers don't base their decision to use IBM Consulting services or get IBM to build their supercomputer based upon IBM having NetVista desktops, ThinkCentre workstations or ThinkPad laptops.

Q Cubed is offline Q Cubed
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 22:59 Visit Q Cubed's homepage!
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ibm's market is also predominantly --surprise, surprise-- businesses.

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
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quote:
Originally posted by Asher
The problem is Sam Palimisano is all about growth. He thinks IBM resources are better used in higher-margin, high-growth areas. The division was still very profitable.


He may be all about growth but he's leaving a core business in his pursuit of making his short turn figures look better. Over all it's hard to see this as good for the company even if it does bring a quick shot of money to investors.

He's trying to recast the company into something else but that's going to be difficult and right now when you say IBM people think computers. Will they be able to maintain that level of market awareness after they no longer have loads of costumers seeing and using their computers on a daily basis? We shall see.

Az is offline Az
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 23:03
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quote:
There was a story doing the rounds the other day that three of the major PC manufacturers will be forced out of the business by 2007.

I guess IBM jumped the gun.


Yeah, I had that report in mind, as well, when I read this thread.

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
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  Old Post 03-12-2004 23:05
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quote:
Originally posted by Atahualpa
OTOH, if he sells it for $2 billion, he had made all the profit for the next 20 years in one single day (assuming that profits don't drop).


That's what the CEO is thinking. He wants to goose short term profits so he looks good but in the long run it will be bad for the company. IBM's main costumers may be business but if the people who invented the PC can't hack it in the PC market then I'd bet lots of potential costumers are going to see them more and more as a has been.

Az is offline Az
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Oerdin: I sorta feel that way, as well, however, that's where the cold financial analysis ( that says that if they sell it for 5bil, they're selling it at 50 P/E, and thus are doing a good deal ) fails.

Asher is offline Asher
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quote:
Originally posted by Oerdin
He may be all about growth but he's leaving a core business in his pursuit of making his short turn figures look better.

It hasn't been a core business since the early 90s. It's less than 10% of IBM's revenues these days.

quote:
He's trying to recast the company into something else but that's going to be difficult and right now when you say IBM people think computers.

Regular consumers think that, yes.
IBM's target customers don't.

quote:
Will they be able to maintain that level of market awareness after they no longer have loads of costumers seeing and using their computers on a daily basis? We shall see.

You don't seem to be in touch at all with IBM's customer base. They are not at all influenced by what brand their PC is...

I cannot emphasize enough -- IBM is not a typical consumer's company. They are a business company, period. Businesses do NOT base their purchase decisions based on brand awareness.

I assure you, the customers who spend hundreds of millions of dollars on IBM contracts do not do so based on the fact that IBM has 5% of the PC market.

 
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