21-12-2004 07:44									#61
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quote: Originally posted by Geronimo Has anybody been able to come up with any other scenarios where the missle shield might make any difference?

The only one I can think of involves Airforce One.

	21-12-2004 07:55									#62
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quote: Originally posted by BeBro Five out of eight isn't that bad. Just hope they don't attack with nuclear warheads

Actually, five out of eight is misleading. In the tests where they were "successful" they were proof of concept tests, not tests to see whether the system was actually useful. In these tests, the targets were usually outbound drones, not inbound (which means the radar had a lot more time to track and lock on to their target than the few minutes an inbound missile would allow us. In addition, they generally wore great big targets saying, hit me, as opposed to flinging twenty decoys out to confuse the sytem.

The good news is that sucha system might eventually work. The bad news is that we are deploying a flashlight that was sold to us as a laser.

	21-12-2004 09:54									#63
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quote: Originally posted by Gatekeeper those missile fields in North Dakota are still on somebody's "to-kill" list ...

I didn't want to be reminded about that.

	21-12-2004 11:30									#64
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Hey, did you hear? Missile silos in the United States, especially those in North Dakota, are still being targetted by other nuclear powers.

Mwahahahaha!!

	21-12-2004 11:38									#65
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian ICBMs are not what we must worry about. We have the ultimate deterant : a shitload of our own ICBMs. This made at least a modicum of sense during the Cold War arms race. It makes none now. -Arrian

Exactly. Who thinks retaliation will be appreciated by a potentially psycho (who might have a terminal illness) ruler of some banana-rice republic?

Mr Kim, you've won the dictator for life game, but you're dying, what do you want to do?

'I want to make Disneyland glow!'

MAD only works with groups of people who think they have something to lose. It might be warm comfort to know that you can make Korea, and all of East Asia a radioactive hot spot for a few centuries to come, but wouldn't your efforts be better spent in trying to make the obligatory response a non issue because the few missiles a madman could luanch might not come back down again in operable condition?

	21-12-2004 11:41									#66
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It's amazing how often this line of bollocks comes up, i.e. some madman's gonna to vapourise LA if the missile shield's not in place blah blah blah.

Fortunately, us IT types are very used FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt).

	21-12-2004 11:46									#67
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Fortunately, you IT types don't run countries.

If you think for a moment that Kim is a nice, stable, influence with the bomb, you are mad.

What was the last gem? Something about if Japan didn't continue to give him stuff it would be a declaration or war?

The only Chinese who would be stupid enough not to take such a threat seriously would be the Chinese who hope that Kim catches the US with the proverbial pants down.

I'd really like to see how long he would last if Beijing were threatened with one of his toys. My money would be that N Korea would be 'under new management' in about 48 hours.

	21-12-2004 11:54									#68
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Anyone remember when they started designing the F-22?

Anyone remember when the first flight was?

Anyone remember the first time if flew in anything but perfect conditions.

Product: The best fighter plane the world has ever seen.

And does anyone here understand how ****ing hard it is to shoot down an ICBM? You guys will whine about anything.

	21-12-2004 12:02									#69
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Fortunately, you IT types don't run countries.

The propaganda is working fine

quote: Originally posted by notyoueither If you think for a moment that Kim is a nice, stable, influence with the bomb, you are mad.

That's nice, but I have seen nothing but assertions so far.

quote: Originally posted by notyoueither What was the last gem? Something about if Japan didn't continue to give him stuff it would be a declaration or war?

Did he declare war?

quote: Originally posted by notyoueither I'd really like to see how long he would last if Beijing were threatened with one of his toys. My money would be that N Korea would be 'under new management' in about 48 hours.

How do you know he has missiles with nuclear warheads ready to launch?

	21-12-2004 12:03									#70
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I'd be surprised if Japan is not secretly preparing themselves for the eventuality that they need to make N Korea an isotope soup when Kim finally goes totally off his rocker and they can't chance it anymore.

	21-12-2004 12:07									#71
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger Did he declare war?

Your're trying to make a joke, right?

You do have a clue where rattling sabres and threatening war ends up, don't you?

quote: How do you know he has missiles with nuclear warheads ready to launch?

He says he has warheads? The world says he has warheads? He lobbed a missile over the Japanese mainland?

Are you being intentionally dense?

	21-12-2004 12:11									#72
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither I'd be surprised if Japan is not secretly preparing themselves for the eventuality that they need to make N Korea an isotope soup when Kim finally goes totally off his rocker and they can't chance it anymore.

Incidently, I should think China should be concerned that the Japanese might feel that way. I should think that China should pull on the choker of their lap dog instead of snickering at the commotion it is causing.

China's choice.

However, if the US detects a missile launch from the Korean peninsula, I would think some of their scenarios assume that they have to obliterate China as part of the response.

I hope that everyone is thinking of these things. It could get awefully messy if everyone just poses for points.

	21-12-2004 16:00									#73
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quote: Originally posted by shmily_dana The always want to have good weather on flight tests so that they can get photos. Also, I imagine they have telemetry coming out of the missile. Need good weather for good reception. There are also range safety issues that mandate good weather.

Yes, yes and yes.

	21-12-2004 22:43									#74
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Who cares if the tests are successfull.

Even if it works 100% perfectly, given that it's ridiculously easy to circumvent, as a defense system it's less than useless - it's a WASTE.

Even the Maginot Line at least provided speed bump value.

	21-12-2004 22:47									#75
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If it is so ridiculously easy to circumvent, why don't you with your wealth of classified technical knowledge explain?

	22-12-2004 00:28									#76
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quote: quote: We have the ultimate deterant : a shitload of our own ICBMs. This won't work against Iran or NK.

diplomat, why doesn't the fact that we have oodles of icbms deter the nk? why does deterrance fail to work in that particular scenario?

===

quote: Fortunately, you IT types don't run countries.

unfortunately, instead of us it types running it, we have idiots who'd rather get blowjobs and buffoons who'd rather not be bothered with details like signing "we're very sorry to inform you" letters.

quote: If you think for a moment that Kim is a nice, stable, influence with the bomb, you are mad.

not as mad as you are if you think he's completely insane. his moves, as odd and idiotic as they may be, fall into a recurring pattern: lots of loud posturing and bluffing, rummaging around and revealing tantalizing tidbits before hiding them again, and demanding a payoff.

quote: What was the last gem? Something about if Japan didn't continue to give him stuff it would be a declaration or war?

when was this? the only thing i can recall that he's said recently was that international sanctions would be a declaration of war.

quote: I'd really like to see how long he would last if Beijing were threatened with one of his toys. My money would be that N Korea would be 'under new management' in about 48 hours.

'course, it seems like you believe that nkorea is completely china's lapdog. which it isn't. dependency does not equate to control.

===

quote: He says he has warheads? The world says he has warheads? He lobbed a missile over the Japanese mainland?

in this case, 2 and 2 do not necessarily make 4. they may have a primitive warhead. is it light enough to fit at the top of a missile? we don't know. do we want to chance it? not particularly.

===

quote: It could get awefully messy if everyone just poses for points.

it's an awfully thorny situation. so far as i can tell, though, and i believe, is that bush's america doesn't know what the **** to do, nkorea just wants life support, china doesn't want to deal with it, japan's worried that the us doesn't have its **** together and so is starting to do some of it themselves, and skorea's worried that the us doesn't have its **** together and wants to buy the nkoreans off so their precious capital doesn't turn into vapor.

	22-12-2004 00:34									#77
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quote: Originally posted by Patroklos Anyone remember when they started designing the F-22?

So you're saying they should have deployed it after the first test flight? Cuz, uh, that's what they're doing with the ABM. They are DEPLOYING IT!

Do you understand the difference between experimenting on something, and deploying it before it works?

Why do you people keep coming back with the same stupid argument over and over again without ONCE addressing the problem, spending $20 Billion SETTING UP a NON-WORKING system. No one is saying we shouldn't experiment on it.

	22-12-2004 00:43									#78
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quote: Originally posted by Q Cubed diplomat, why doesn't the fact that we have oodles of icbms deter the nk? why does deterrance fail to work in that particular scenario?

Deterrence requires that both sides are thinking rationally. It also requires that neither side feels the situation is hopeless.

In the case of NK, I am not sure that Kim Jong Il is completely rational. He might miscalculate and think that China would support him and therefore that the US would not dare retaliate. He might think that we are bogged down in Iraq and can't retaliate against him. Furthermore, the NK economy is disastrous, and there is a terrible famine. Kim Jong Il may feel that the situation is so bad that he has nothing to lose by invading South Korea.

It seems to me to be a good idea to have some kind of defense system just in case deterrence doesn't work. If there is uncertainty and a chance that deterrence might fail, why gamble with the lives of millions of Americans?

	22-12-2004 00:45									#79
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The other side is never rational.

Our side is always rational.

	22-12-2004 01:00									#80
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Kim is a bit of a whackjob, I'll grant that. Hey, the guy's favorite film is Gone with the Wind. But I don't think he's THAT crazy... especially while he has something to lose (this includes his "legacy" and other things that will outlive him, so just putting together a Kim-on-deathbed scenario doesn't cut it). On this we may just have to agree to disagree.

I simply do not see a ICBM threat that is not effectively countered by MAD. I *do* see nuclear weapon threats that a ABM system will do absolutely nothing to stop. Accordingly, IMO, while an ABM system is a nice thing for the wishlist, I'd give it much lower priority than it currently has.

-Arrian

	22-12-2004 01:09									#81
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Ever stop to think about why they are deploying it?

Probobly because the second we got hit with an actual missile, you and you ilk would immediatly turn you story to OMFG WHY DO WE NOT HAVE EVEN A BASIC MISSILE DEFENSE AHHHHHHHHH.

Not that deploy means anything in this instance che, because as you either neglected to mention or just don't know **** about (both are equally as likely) the majority of the equipment, or more accuretly put facilities, are STATIONARY!!! How the hell, besides the navy cruiser which is always deployed there anyways, do you deploy it besides building it and running it?

Oh I see Che, because it only has a 60% chance of working right now we should just leave all that infrustructure dormant untill it us fully 100%, because god damn it if it isn't 100% it isn't worth a damn.

So who is wasting money che, you who would rather forgo partial coverage for nothing for another five years, or the military who is delivering early and providing partial service when none was expected and still delivering full service on time.

HDTV has the same problem

Not to mention running it now at the highest possible tempo would only yeild priceless reaserch and trouble shooting data.

Not that you would ever let logic or truth get in the way of your whining, so please proceed.

	22-12-2004 01:10									#82
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quote: Originally posted by The diplomat Deterrence requires that both sides are thinking rationally. It also requires that neither side feels the situation is hopeless. In the case of NK, I am not sure that Kim Jong Il is completely rational. He might miscalculate and think that China would support him and therefore that the US would not dare retaliate. He might think that we are bogged down in Iraq and can't retaliate against him. Furthermore, the NK economy is disastrous, and there is a terrible famine. Kim Jong Il may feel that the situation is so bad that he has nothing to lose by invading South Korea.

Any regime may miscalculate the consequences of their actions. Miscalculation is a arguement for why no one should have ICBM's, not just dicatatorships. Kim has been in power for a decade now- he has not done anything nuts.

quote: It seems to me to be a good idea to have some kind of defense system just in case deterrence doesn't work. If there is uncertainty and a chance that deterrence might fail, why gamble with the lives of millions of Americans?

Gambling with the lives of Americans is exactly what is being done now. The system is not in any way rustworthy now. Why give people a false sense of security, including to decision makers?

	22-12-2004 01:11									#83
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Sad to see Patrokolos decline into Fezism.

	22-12-2004 01:20									#84
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian I simply do not see a ICBM threat that is not effectively countered by MAD.

What if someone did launch 1 single nuclear missile at a target? If that happened, MAD would have failed.

What should the US do if NK launched 1 single nuclear missile at say Japan? Should we:
a) immediately launch a large nuclear attack at NK.
b) retaliate with a single nuclear missile of our own.
c) wait and see. the missile might miss or be a dud.
d) retaliate with a conventional attack only.
e) do nothing. It was just 1 missile, and retaliating will only escalate things even worse.

	22-12-2004 01:22									#85
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Jesus GePap, you usually at least try to say something intelligent before accepting defeat and retreating under the cover fire of insults.

What happened to you?

	22-12-2004 01:24									#86
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He realized the futility of arguing with a Fezist, perhaps?

	22-12-2004 01:27									#87
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quote: So you're saying they should have deployed it after the first test flight

If we were ever in a situation where we were losing air superiority, and if this is the case it is probobly WWIII, then you can bet your ass every F-22 in the test program would be out there shooting down anything it could.

If we were ever in a situation where our primary defense against ICBMs failed (MAD), which if this is the case it is probobly close to WWIII, then you bet your ass the military would throw whatever functioning parts of the ABM system it had at the problem.

Which of course is what they should be, and are, doing.

	22-12-2004 01:28									#88
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quote: He realized the futility of arguing with a Fezist, perhaps?

If there were any around, but more likely he is scared.

	22-12-2004 01:31									#89
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quote: What should the US do if NK launched 1 single nuclear missile at say Japan? Should we

Probobly none those, because a missle targeting Japan would be in range of the full arsenel of both ours and Japan's navies.

Theatre Ballistic Missile defense has been up and running for years, and actually has gotten much better just recently, it is the ICBMs we have problems with not TBMs.

	22-12-2004 01:32									#90
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quote: What if someone did launch 1 single nuclear missile at a target?

What if [insert something absurdly unlikely here]?

That's the whole point of MAD. The leader of a nation-state would have to be full-on batshit crazy to order a launch, and his subordinates would have to also be full-on batshit crazy to follow the order.

Meanwhile, people we know ARE full-on batshit crazy and have no nation-state to worry about are most likely trying to get a nuke to the USA via container or other non-ICBM delivery method.

-Arrian