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Q Cubed
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t3h y3ll0w p3ril
Apr 1999
time: 23:17
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quote:
Deterrence requires that both sides are thinking rationally. It also requires that neither side feels the situation is hopeless. |
*nods*
quote:
In the case of NK, I am not sure that Kim Jong Il is completely rational. He might miscalculate and think that China would support him and therefore that the US would not dare retaliate. He might think that we are bogged down in Iraq and can't retaliate against him. Furthermore, the NK economy is disastrous, and there is a terrible famine. Kim Jong Il may feel that the situation is so bad that he has nothing to lose by invading South Korea. |
and kill off the one country that is, for no good reason other than self-interest, supporting it? especially in light of the fact that all moves the north has done recently has been to solidify and tighten their control over their nation; why would they imperil their own power? their fanatic in their belief of the power of their nation, but not to the point of martyrdom.
the fact that nkorea is not making any moves towards invading the south is proof enough that the deterrent, nuclear or not, is working, no? especially in light of the fact that the skorean army is strong enough these days to not buckle as they did in the 50's.
nkorea's rhetoric about nuclear warfare is no different from the ussr's constant threats of burying the americans and the west because history is on the side of the soviets. have they made any recent moves towards launching a nuclear missile towards us? not recently.
plus, your contention is that deterrence requires both sides to think rationally and not have a sense of helplessness. abm, which would render nkorea's nuclear arsenal worthless, would only exacerbate any sense of hopelessness on nkorea's part.
do i think abm is a good idea? yes, if it worked. do i think it's worth shortchanging other programs with better returns for our country? no.
quote:
It seems to me to be a good idea to have some kind of defense system just in case deterrence doesn't work. If there is uncertainty and a chance that deterrence might fail, why gamble with the lives of millions of Americans? |
this is nothing more than the "better than nothing" argument.
it seems to me to be a good idea to have some kind of social security system just in case people lose their jobs. if there is uncertainty and a chance that employment might vanish, why gamble with the lives of millions of Americans?
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chegitz guevara
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Ft. Lauderdale, FL Communist Party of Apolyton
Jun 2000
time: 00:17
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quote:
Originally posted by Patroklos
Ever stop to think about why they are deploying it? |
Yeah, cuz Raytheon lobbied hard to have the Fed's givem them $20 billion.
quote:
Oh I see Che, because it only has a 60% chance of working right now we should just leave all that infrustructure dormant untill it us fully 100%, because god damn it if it isn't 100% it isn't worth a damn. |
If it was an actual 60%, I'd say go for it. Hell, if it was 20% I'd say go for it, maybe even 10%. As it is now, it won't work against an actual ICBM attack, since the enemy is highly unlikely to launch the missile near a U.S. tracking station in a trajectory away from the U.S. and with a giant radar balloon saying hit me and no decoys.
As it is now, it's simply $20 billion in waste that could be better spent beefing up our port security.
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Jon Miller
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I cheered for them in the olympics though
Jon Miller
(they got 4th in gymnastics or something like that...
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notyoueither
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of naught
Aug 2001
time: 22:17
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You gotta admit, this is simply bizarre. You think the guy(s) running this show are rational?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/as...fic/4097031.stm
quote:
N Korea warns Japan on sanctions
Tokyo is furious over the issue of Japanese abducted by the North
North Korea has warned that it will regard any economic sanctions imposed by Japan in response to an ongoing kidnap row as a "declaration of war".
The Japanese government has already suspended food aid to North Korea as a result of the dispute.
Tokyo was outraged after human remains provided by North Korea were not those of a kidnapped Japanese woman.
North Korea has said it kidnapped some Japanese to train its spies, but denies any are still alive in the North.
A Japanese government official said sanctions against North Korea were one of the measures Tokyo was considering, but it first wanted to analyse all the information on missing Japanese nationals that its officials gathered during a visit to the North last month.
He said the decision would be made by the end of the year.
Heartbreak in Japan
Sanctions could involve restricting Japanese port calls by North Korean vessels, remittances from Koreans living in Japan to the North, and imports of North Korean foods such as sea food and specialist mushrooms.
Pyongyang accused Japan of falsifying the tests to damage ties and said that if sanctions were imposed, it would hit back with an "effective physical response". The impoverished state relies heavily on contributions from Korean nationals in Japan.
"If sanctions are applied against the DPRK (North Korea)... we will regard it as a declaration of war against our country and promptly react to the action by an effective physical method," a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency said.
The statement said North Korea would also reconsider taking part in six-nation talks on its nuclear programme if Tokyo halted aid shipments. The Japanese government said earlier this week that as a result of the abduction row, it would hold back half of the 250,000 tonnes of food aid it promised North Korea in May.
More than six million North Koreans rely on foreign food aid for basic sustenance. Japan's gift has made it one of the North's most generous recent donors, but the North has survived Japanese freezes in the past. Before it promised the lump sum earlier this year, Tokyo had not pledged food aid to North Korea since 2001.
Any moves to change Japan's financial relationship with North Korea, however, are unlikely to be supported by Washington and other Japanese allies, as this would complicate the multinational talks process under way with Pyongyang.
Japanese anger
But pressure is mounting within Japan for action against its impoverished neighbour.
Last week, DNA tests showed that bones provided by North Korea to prove that a missing Japanese woman, Megumi Yokota, was dead, did not belong to her but to several other people.
Pyongyang admitted kidnapping her in 1977 but said she committed suicide in 1984. Many in Japan, including her parents, are suspicious and believe she is still alive.
Some believe she is being detained because she knows too much about the secretive country.
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi suggested the latest threats from North Korea might be part of a political strategy.
"We have to look carefully at what their true intentions are," he told reporters.
Pyongyang admitted in 2002 to abducting 13 Japanese nationals in the 1970s and 80s, who were to be used as cultural trainers for North Korean spies.
Five were allowed to return to Japan in 2002, while North Korea said the others had died or never entered the country. |
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Apolyton Time is 00:17. |
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22-12-2004 08:04
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