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vulture
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Leeds, UK
Jun 2001
time: 05:17
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So this turn we, along with GoW, are hopefully going to raze ten or more important Lego cities, trash their unit production power and cripple either their ability to support a military, or their ability to research. While it might not be the death blow, it is going to be a very serious one (and all because Lego vastly overestimated how many infantry they needed in Abilene to defend it from 68 tanks; they could have had almost 20 infantry to scatter around in other places).
How is ND going to react? They aren't exactly active supporters of GAUL, and are basically just staying out of the way while Lego goes down, leaving them in pole position, more or less. This turn, they are going to see Lego lose a boat-load of cities. At this point, they just might think that they've stayed out of the way long enough. If ten Lego cities go, Lego aren't a competitor to ND any more, and only we and GoW remain in the race along with ND. And when is ND going to have a better chance to do to us what we just did to Lego? Neither we nor GoW have a great deal of defense left at home. What if next turn ND mobilises, guts GoW with a tank/settler/cavalry blitz, and then looks in our direction (assuming they need to).
Basically, my question is this: even though it seems vastly premature, is now the time to start organising our builds back home to focus on defending Stormia? Or are we stuck without a choice and need to keep sending units to Legoland, and just hope that ND leave us alone for the time being.
ISTM that if we can do enough damage this turn, Lego has zero chance of winning the space race (which is probably how this is going to be decided), and we don't actually need to do any more over there.
And even if you disagree, its still worth bearing in mind that our focus isn't on defeating Lego's military: it's winning the game against all other civs.
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Cort Haus
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London
Apr 2002
time: 05:17
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quote:
Originally posted by DeepO
I've got to say one thing: I know attacking is possibly the best option right now, but don't forget the Bobian war. We need someone who wants to focus us on this, and I'm not going to be that guy. Do not start a war with ND, unless we are commited to it, otherwise we would be much better off on our island.
DeepO |
Damn right. GROND jokes aside, I doubt we've got another war in us, to be honest. I reckon GoW are itching to use nukes in this game. With Lego now pruned to GS-proportions the only target is ND. Maybe that's where we can slip through the hole to an SS.
The clear #1 (now ND) and the clear #2 (GoW) have the responsibility to duke it out. Of course GoW will want us as allies, but we can dig in and sit it out, saying "hey, 3 is enough - you guys are a war behind us!". No-one could take on Lego alone, but GoW/ND could realistically hit each other alone. This puts GS in a good diplomatic position. Both GoW and ND will not want us in the other camp. We can be cordial with both, and maybe enjoy favours in the same way as ND enjoyed favours from us as we strove to keep them out of Lego's camp.
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:17
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Lego with only one city left is basically gone... nukes are not effective when you only have one It's either mass deployment, or no deployment at all. Besides, how are they going to get the techs required?
I'm not sure if there will be time or not. ND said they needed 13 turns for the next tech (last turn, or the one before). In 25 turns, a lot can happen, certainly if the forces are present. Granted, it was not as expected, but after 3 turns of naval warfare, Lego gets detroyed in 2 turns time... and the Bobians don't need 3 turns of naval warfare, not to get us, nor the other Bobian...
DeepO
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:17
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keep on putting it out there, vmxa. It's appreciated.
Maybe up until last turn, we could settle for peace with some cities left. But right now, when they are at the brink of losing everything but 1, possibly 3-4 cities? We just can't do that. And I doubt it if they want to. If I would be in Lego at this point, I would call for one giant attack, do the damage we can, and die honorably. They already know from Vox and RP, that staying in the game as a minor power is no fun at all. And they would become the smallest of all.
So I think, that they won't even consider a peace treaty with this carnage. I'm not sure if they can abandon their capital, they can't give it for sure, but in the end, something like is going to happen. While it used to be different, this turn has made it a fight to death for them.
WW: I'm not perfectly sure how it works, but currently, we're not feeling a lot. If we reach peace quickly, we still have to get everything into position again... only moving our transports back is taking 3 turns, and let them get on the other side to check on ND takes another 5 or so. By that time, we would have the troops we need, and are ready to invade.
GoW probably needs a bit less time, even if they so far lost a lot more troops. And they have universal suffrage. The border between these tow nations is so large, that any attack will punch through the first defense. Given the settler blitz, a single attacker is going to cut a path right through the empire, taking out the palace. This is true for both ND and GoW. This is especially true for as long as there are no MIs to defend. There is very little to stop this initial attack. However, it won't be enough to keep any land, and the counterattack will be bloody as well. After doing that 2 times, you end up with devastated land, no offensive troops, and about the same border as at first.
The only possible way to tilt the balance would be a joint attack. So either we will be approached, or we're next.
DeepO
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zeit
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Meet my blade!
Sep 2002
time: 06:17
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quote:
GoW probably needs a bit less time, even if they so far lost a lot more troops. And they have universal suffrage. The border between these tow nations is so large, that any attack will punch through the first defense. Given the settler blitz, a single attacker is going to cut a path right through the empire, taking out the palace. This is true for both ND and GoW. This is especially true for as long as there are no MIs to defend. There is very little to stop this initial attack. However, it won't be enough to keep any land, and the counterattack will be bloody as well. After doing that 2 times, you end up with devastated land, no offensive troops, and about the same border as at first. |
A truly frightening balance of terror (is that the right expression in english?), with both sides knowing that the opponent's second strike could be at least as devestating as it own initial offensive...
Lego doesn't have the option for this kind of counter-attack, and certainly weren't fully aware of this kind of tactic, so in this war it can be safely said that the settler-blitz has won, but the next war, possibly a land based conflict between two mammoths?
It can't guarantee a quick, clean victory, even with numerical superiority.
Seriously, someone must come up with an efficient counter-tactic for this blitz. honestly, doesn't it seem like an almost too potent tactic?
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:17
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Zeit, there are two effective ways of stopping it, but the problem is, neither will work well on a broad defensive line.
1st one is pillaging the roads. No roads, no blitz. This can be done beforehand (if you feel invasion is imminent). Let's take the example of Stormia... even if it is not ideal beacuse our cities are cramped together, it is easier because we have a very long stretched land. You could cut the roads near Elipolis, over the whole stretch of land, and create a barrier no settler can take (Elipolis itself could be lost to tanks or MA).
Do the same right after Elipolis, and you create a stripe of land, which is independent from the rest. Do the same 1 band of cities further, and you got a perfect defense to settler blitzing. The problem is, of course, that in our case you would also lose half your commerce as there are no roads anywhere. And you need airports / harbors in every band, to make sure luxuries and resources are present everywhere.
Second possibility, but this will only work before MA, is to create bands of forest. If you do this right next to the cities, and have cities close enough together (or pillage the roads on those tiles which are not ideal), you stop all 2-movers. So while the attacker can build settlers, and diminish the distance their tanks have to travel to 1 tile (and then attacking or stepping into the city) like we just have done with Lego, their tanks will be stopped before being able to reach us. This works best in hilly terrain, as a hill has the same effect. It won't help against 3-movers, but as long as there are no MA, MI will keep the cavs away. Mountains are in this respect ideal, as they eat up more mp, and not even cavs or MA can reach them.
A combination of these two approaches will work best. Forests to keep the road open for the defender, so that he can reach all bands, while pillaging the roads in cases where this doesn't work (forests are only effective next to a city, and the attackers side even).
Actually, I've been thinking on this for the past day or so, in between all the other stuff, and I think we should really apply this to Elipolis. We only need 2 forests next to it (facing RP), and we can create a reasonable barrier. Now that this settler blitzing is out of the closet, we're at grave risk. 2 forests there will cut into our production, but at least it should provide for 1 turn warning in case GoW decides to come from us through RP. (together with adequate defensive forces in Elipolis, of course, otherwise cavs are still going to get through)
One turn is all we need, to transform our empire into a defensive stronghold. This settler blitzing tactic only works once, next turn it is possible to abandon the cities that are undefendable, pillage roads everywhere, build forests where possible, and generally transform from a highly accessible, productive empire, into a stronghold which has lost all its production over night.
For us, the cost of this might be reasonable. We've got the spinebreakers which are better than forests (although we might need to relocate Monsoon to just next to the spines, while in the Voxian war we were glad it was one tile off). We can create fortresses at those tiles which we absolutely can't miss. And if we only need e.g. 3 bands in our empire, we only need 3 of those stripes of green (green lungs, as it where. The environmentalists would be pleased!).
But look at the cost of this in an empire the size of ND, or GoW. It's huge! Plus, they have the added problem that we can work in bands, but they have to work in squares, grouping e.g. 4 cities together each time. Their cities are not so close together, meaning a lot more roads have to be pillaged (actually, in many cases an extra city is favourable, which is a bit counter intuitive).
I think I'm going to put the 2 forests on the agenda for Elipolis next turn. Right now, our biggest risk is RP's 1-tile passage to GoW. We can minimize that risk for the cost of something like 3 spt.
DeepO
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:17
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If I was in GoW's / ND's case, I would create stress points. Given the terrain, and given the above protection mechanisms, it is possible to e.g. protect 3 cities with the majority of your defenders, while isolating the rest with forests / roadpillages. The main problem is that you can never hold a broad defensive line, even if defenders have a longer life than attackers. So identify which sites you need to keep, double it's defensive force, and simply make the rest expendable, but without creating any openings to your hinterland.
But in the end, the best measure against these tactics, is to switch your opponent to your ally, and invade someone else.
DeepO
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:17
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CH, I'm not certain I'm following... partly, yes, but the whole of it.
In case GoW can't destroy Stanwix, Lego will be extremely limited in what they're going to do next. They don't need an FP right now, as Abilene has become their palace... their Southern cities are already productive. Lego's main problem is that a doughnut is not defendeable: that whole patch of RRed, free terrain is freely useable for every settler / tank combination. We just gave them the worst defensive line you can get. They can only try to keep us from getting on that RR, or next turn, they are about to lose most of their cities anyway. It's just not defendable. If GoW doesn't destroy Stanwix, Lego will put everything on 2 goals: defending Stanwix, and keeping us from their roads.
This has little to do with the ND / GoW situation, though. It's very hard to defend against this kind of settler blitzing for large empires, with large borders. But you can be sure that neither of the two is going to leave its inner cities undefended. And the moment hostilities erupt, we're going to see some pillaging as well. Now that the tactic is shown to be highly effective, more people are going to think on how to prevent it, or at least minimize its damage.
But again, those Bobians' best option is to keep the peace for a while longer, and attack either Lego (unlikely they will play any role in this), or us.
Or, we get invited to join in the war. 1 on 1 might only damage both sides, without killing anyone easily, but 2 on 1 remains a certain kill... if two nations settler blitz their way through an empire, most of its defenders / attackers will be gone as well. And without those, no decent counter attack is possible, if you intend to survive another turn (which is exactly what Lego is facing in the event of Stanwix holding on)
DeepO
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:17
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I agree, vmxa. For our defense, we are going to have to look into a couple of things.
1. navy. This won't help with GoW using RP as an extension board to get to us, nor will it help for ND when they use their closest crossing (but we still have a galley there, and that galley hasn't seen anything for as long as it has been scouting). We do need a navy, including lots of subs, to minimize the sites they can go to, and to block forks whereever possible. If they want to circumvent our navy by going for those few spots which they can reach risk free, we know where they are going to (begin Elipolis, and WW)
2. more artillery. MIs are not covering tanks, in case they are pummeled first. Look at what Lego did to our MIs in the open: granted, we didn't bring many, but only 8 artillery knocked 6 of those MIs to 2 or 3 hp. If they used their full 62 arties, all our defenders would have been so seriously hit, that they had free reign on our tanks. They have chosen the other option (take it out on GoW), and I guess it was a simply question of numbers... we could only reach 1 city, so less defenders are needed on our side for keeping the full stack at bay. GoW forked 2 cities... double the defenders, so each attacker destroyed is worth 2 defenders less to worry about.
In hindsight, we got lucky, as otherwise we would have landed on Q 21 (the fork) for sure. Making us the target.
3. fighters / jets. Bombers are very serious threats from now on. Each CV of bombers hitting an MI gets it down to a level where marines can take it out relatively easy. Navy is not going to defend against this, in the very narrow sea between us and Bob. So, we need to cover our cities with fighters, especially in those cities which can be reached without warning.
Other than that, I'm thinking on defensive buildings too. We can build those while still in mob (although I'd rather build more MI right about now), but I'm not sure on how bombardment works. Do they target the defensive buildings first? Coastal fortresses, do they help against marines? And what about those other things, defense networks or what are they called... I never built one in my life. If they add 100% to our defense, while remaining relatively hard to dismantle, these have to become priority once we've got 2-3 troops in a city.
DeepO
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Dominae
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Do RP and GoW have some sort of NAP? Because it seems to me that if RP decides to attack GoW at this very moment, GoW goes down and there's nothing anyone can do to stop it. Then we crown ND the champions of this game.
Or am I missing something?
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vmxa1
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Oviedo, Fl
Nov 2001
time: 21:17
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If they have a settler or two in the boats, those can continue on as soon as we see a safe path. Any scrappable units like explorers could come as well, but any defenders are better in the homeland.
They can get their satisfaction by having some land of their own. I would really like to get them off of Stormia, so we can controll it properly. They acted a bit to sluggishly at times and not 100% the way we needed, such as some of the trades the initiated.
We can send them some cash to help with the cost up relocation down the road.
Last edited by vmxa1 on 11-12-2004 at 21:52
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09-12-2004 21:29
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