10-12-2004 19:31									#61
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara It's about time this country swung back left.

To the left perhaps but not as far as you want to go.

Anything that promotes more moderate choices would be OK in my book. I abhor the polarization that appears to be the trend.

	10-12-2004 19:42									#62
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The Democrat's are f*cked either way. If they move to the right the far left will defect to the Greens. If the party goes to the left the Republicans will pull the "Socialist [insert government program here" sh!t and will lose suburban America because of social issues.

	10-12-2004 19:43									#63
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quote: Originally posted by Odin The Democrat's are f*cked either way. If they move to the right the far left will defect to the Greens.

How does that hurt the Dems again?

	10-12-2004 19:46									#64
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Without the voices of the likes Ed Asner and Babs where would the Dems be?

	10-12-2004 19:55									#65
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc How does that hurt the Dems again?

The left end of the party will go to the Greens.

	10-12-2004 19:59									#66
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How does that (the far left leaving) hurt the Dems again?

	10-12-2004 20:22									#67
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quote: Democrats can and do win here. Even in statewide office. Usually by seperating themselves from the national party. I fail to see how Dean could help that. I only see him hurting the Dems here.

This is the most important point. How can democrats make the national party something that is an asset to red state democrats rather than a huge hindrance?

Hey, I've got an idea. Let's elect Pelosi to head the Dems in the House!

	10-12-2004 20:26									#68
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk Gays are heading into the same boat African Americans are in -- blind allegiance to a single party. The result will be that both parties ignore you, because the one knows it's pointless to try to win you over, and the other knows you'll never leave.

Considering that there is a significant minority of gays who are Republicans, I have to disagree with your simplified perspective.

	10-12-2004 20:55									#69
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin You're claiming Dukakis & Mondale were CENTRISTS!

Dukakis, yes. Mondale, no. Mondale, however, was grey and plastic, and so one can be forgiven for thinking he wsa centrist.

	10-12-2004 20:57									#70
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk Gays are heading into the same boat African Americans are in -- blind allegiance to a single party. The result will be that both parties ignore you, because the one knows it's pointless to try to win you over, and the other knows you'll never leave.

Uh, didn't like about 20% of the black vote go to Bush?

	10-12-2004 20:58									#71
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk Gays are heading into the same boat African Americans are in -- blind allegiance to a single party.

That has less to do with the political proclivity of gays and more to do with the fact that the GOP is openly hostile to them. The Log Cabin Republicans have tried for years to make headway within the GOP, and have been snubbed time and time again.

	10-12-2004 20:58									#72
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quote: Originally posted by Harry Tuttle Uh, didn't like about 20% of the black vote go to Bush?

91% of Blacks that voted, voted for Kerry

	10-12-2004 20:59									#73
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc How does that (the far left leaving) hurt the Dems again?

Because thirty to forty percent of their party is "far" left.

	10-12-2004 21:03									#74
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Please che. Appealing to you and your ilk is and always has been a loosing election strategy, why should the Dems keep elements of thier party that cost them elections?

	10-12-2004 21:08									#75
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Cuz without their support, they'd never win another election, unless the centrist wing of the GOP defected to the Dems.

	10-12-2004 21:08									#76
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara 91% of Blacks that voted, voted for Kerry

Funny, I recall the GOP share of the black vote increasing from 11% in 2000 to 18% this time around.

	10-12-2004 21:11									#77
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That was pre-election polling.

	10-12-2004 21:21									#78
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And what is your 91% figure then?

	10-12-2004 22:22									#79
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Exit polling.

	10-12-2004 22:44									#80
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The Republicans won by exciting their base... not moving to the center. Becoming "Republican-lite" isn't the answer for the Dem's. But they don't need to "move to the left" either. Frankly, I think the Washington establishment elitists need to be removed from the Party.

	10-12-2004 22:45									#81
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Ah, so it really comes down to who you want to believe the most. Mine was used by RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie in his post-election evaluation Q&A session with the National Press Club, during which he also predicted a 2008 GOP share of the black vote of at least 30%.

I don't know where you got the <9% figure, but there's a bit of a leap to make from such a figure, to the party going public with a 30% prediction for the next election.

	10-12-2004 22:47									#82
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According to this, Bush got 11% of the Black vote.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pa...0/epolls.0.html

Ed Gillespie is a hack. Of course he's gonna say stuff like that. He's trying to pretend the GOP isn't racist, because many centrist whites are opposed to racism.

	10-12-2004 22:53									#83
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Let's just agree that it's a matter of personal belief, and how much stock you put in different types of polling. Exit polls were once again highly unreliable in predicting anything about what really happened in this election.

	10-12-2004 22:56									#84
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara According to this, Bush got 11% of the Black vote. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pa...0/epolls.0.html Ed Gillespie is a hack. Of course he's gonna say stuff like that. He's trying to pretend the GOP isn't racist, because many centrist whites are opposed to racism.

[/troll] Which explains why the Republican Party is more appealing to Ku Klux Klan members than the Democratic Party [troll\]

	10-12-2004 22:57									#85
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quote: Originally posted by Winston Exit polls were once again highly unreliable in predicting anything about what really happened in this election.

Not really. The early exit polls were, but that's why they weren't supposed to be released (and wouldn't have been had some blogger not gotten his hands on them). The full polls matched the election results.

	10-12-2004 23:02									#86
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Notice I said predicting. Which is all we really have when it comes to break down by race etc.

Of course they full polls fit the final result, once they'd been corrected enough to match it. Otherwise, exit pollers would be out of business pretty fast.

	10-12-2004 23:56									#87
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara According to this, Bush got 11% of the Black vote. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pa...0/epolls.0.html Ed Gillespie is a hack. Of course he's gonna say stuff like that. He's trying to pretend the GOP isn't racist, because many centrist whites are opposed to racism.

I was gonna say I thought Bush got 11%.

Course that 11% + the 91% that you say Kerry got means .....



As I suspected the Kerry campaign was tampering the vote...

	11-12-2004 00:33									#88
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quote: Originally posted by Sava The Republicans won by exciting their base... not moving to the center. Becoming "Republican-lite" isn't the answer for the Dem's. But they don't need to "move to the left" either. Frankly, I think the Washington establishment elitists need to be removed from the Party.

Sava: Republicans can win by exciting there base because 20% of Americans consider themselves to be conservatives and that was about equal to the "moral values" vote (that's code for the religious). By contrast liberals only make up 8% of the population. Sorry but you can motivate that 8% all you want but you won't win elections; instead you must reach out to the middle 72%.

That means Republicans can win even if they only get 31% of that 72% as long as they get their base out. If Democrats get 100% of their base out they still need 43% of that 72% in order to win. As a proportion that is 4/7 of the undecide vote needed to squeek by with a win. Is it any wonder Republicans have been winning more elections?

Sure, we need to build our base beyond blacks, gays, latinos, and educated urban whites. We need to make more liberals and more socially progressive centrists but that is a long term thing. How do you win in the short and medium term? You stay in the center and you give that 72% more reasons to vote for us then to vote for the other guy.

	11-12-2004 01:03									#89
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So now that we've established that Republicans start 12 points ahead as long as they can motivate religious conservatives to vote what can we do about it. For starters we can avoid issues which excite religious conservatives and raise their voter turn out. These skims off the Republicans' advantage in numbers. Incidentally the more we pander to the 8% of liberals with things like gay marriage the more we excite the 20% of religious conservatives and the more we encourage them to vote for Republicans.

We need to avoid those issues which are lightening rods for the religious right and we need to instead talk about things which the 72% like but which the left leaning 8% can still fall in behind. That means health care, education, the elimination of subsidies & waste, consumer protection laws and enforcing anti-trust laws, anti-corruption laws especially about big businesses buying legislation, protecting the enviroment, and promoting workers' rights. What ever we do we have to avoid looking like we're attacking religioun and we have to muzzle the anti-religious nutballs on the far left who want to ban Christmas.

	11-12-2004 01:11									#90
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quote: Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe I was gonna say I thought Bush got 11%. Course that 11% + the 91% that you say Kerry got means ..... As I suspected the Kerry campaign was tampering the vote...

Obviously I made a mistake. Kerry got 88%.