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Apolyton Civilization Forums : Powered by vBulletin version 2.0.3 Apolyton Civilization Forums > Miscellaneous > Archive > Off-Topic-Archive > Michael Crichton picks a fight with environmentalists
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chegitz guevara is offline chegitz guevara
King
Ft. Lauderdale, FL Communist Party of Apolyton
Jun 2000
time: 00:17
  Old Post 18-12-2004 04:30 Visit chegitz guevara's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
more water isnt being displacd - more water is being tied up. sea level drops if any. but since its melting on the other side, sea level remains the same.


It depends. You might want to give more detail about the particular ice sheets. Are they increasing in thickness or area? If it's thickness, then more water s being tied up. If it's area, then not necessarily. If could be that continental ice is sliding out in to the ocean at a faster rate.

Also, are the ice sheets increasing and decreasing at the same rates?

BlackCat is offline BlackCat
Warlord

Jul 2004
time: 05:17
  Old Post 18-12-2004 05:03
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to see that we agree on several points, but :

I don't care if MC hasn't a clue about current sceince, which i'm not that sure, but what is wrong if he elaborates what he know and write a story that is on the frontier of current knowledge ? He may be wrong, but has he in anyway claimed that what he has spoken is true ? And is he the first in this genre ? Imagine that you are a 18'century person and are reading Jules Verne. I don't think that you will take his claims for granted.

Maybe i'm wrong, but the only thing i hear from MC is that science is good as long as it's based on facts, but beware if it's based on belief.


i don't belive that desertificiation is the main issue in Sudan. That is an religious/ethnical/racial fight.

shawnmmcc is offline shawnmmcc
Prince

Jan 2003
time: 00:17
  Old Post 18-12-2004 05:56
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Blackcat, in Dafor they are all moslems. There is an ethnic/racial and power fight, but if they had enough water it would be much easier to work things out. National Geographic back in the 1980's had some excellent analysis that water would become the next major source of conflict. I wanted to use the Palestinian/Isreali conflict, but I'd get stomped all over and really hijack the thread.

If you look at my first post, Crichton is no cutting edge author, and he's lazy to boot. A sophmore level biology major, alright, a gifted sophmore level biology major, can cut the Andromeda Strain to shreds and that was back in the 70's! They might need to be a junior (embryology and genetics) for Jurassic Park. He deals in pseudo-science pap, with just enough science to make those who don't know the field to think it's believable. It's the same thing as Star Trek and astronomy/physics, in may "sound" like science, but often it's anything but (I wanted to scream in the episode where Voyager had to deal with the physical "crack" in an event horizen).

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:17
  Old Post 18-12-2004 07:40 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by notyoueither
Projected, UR. You have to read the whole thread. I quoted, and it was ignored. Then I cut the quote, and it was ignored. Eventually, I arrived at the bit you quoted.

Ted has been ignoring growth and the future, so I thought it was kosher to do likewise.



Ah, if you look at the trend line, the same one the article is basing its 20 year predictions off of you will notice that the line WAS CORRECTED.


It's ignored because it's 20 years into the future, and an irrelevent assumption.

50 years ago, there were predictions of flying cars. Well tell me, where are the flying cars!!?!!?!? (note: Moller SkyCar doesn't count)

Kinda hard to accept a projection when the opening part of it, which should be the easiest part to predict, isn't even close, and in fact moves in the opposite direction.

Last edited by Ted Striker on 18-12-2004 at 07:46

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:17
  Old Post 18-12-2004 07:43 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by notyoueither
I'm still waiting for him to show where CA is heavy on heavy industry, or even how it amounts to much at all. All I've got so far is that he can see a refinery from his bedroom window, and that chemicals are big. Well, they are 6th in US states in chemical manufacture.

We're still waiting for Ted to explain this, or in fact, to have any facts at all other than the bedroom window view.



It's a nice tactic for you to try and frame the debate on this whole caveat of heavy industry, but unfortunatley it doesn't work out.

I have already provided plenty of real world examples (note: not future projections) of areas in China where there have been heavy industry AND reductions in pollution.

Speaking of igoring, you are ignoring every other type of industry or activity (mainly transportation), all of which has increased in magnitude in California, that can increase pollution without controls in place. Yet even though these potential envrionmental loads have gone up, the air quality has continued to improve.

It's a nice tactic but sorry it doesn't work.

By the way, for those of you watching at home, some assorted facts (the latest I could find):

quote:

What's the major industry in Los Angeles? The standard cliché is that it's the movie industry. But manufacturing outweighs it with a 2000 average of 629,400 jobs in Los Angeles County, 2.5 times the movie industry's average of 255,300. Adding in the three surrounding metropolitan areas pushes the Southern California area's manufacturing base to 1,025,300 jobs.

Kyser noted that in 2000 Los Angeles County was nudged out of first place by Chicago as the nation's largest manufacturing sector. However, the job differential was small, only 2,100.

Some industry sectors are posting small year-to-year gains in 2001, including stone, clay & glass; electronic components; instruments; and chemical products.


http://www.laedc.org/data/Press/PR43.shtml

Last edited by Ted Striker on 18-12-2004 at 08:16

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:17
  Old Post 18-12-2004 07:44 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by BlackCat


Can you please tell me what my other login is ? My shrink want all the information she can get to get rid of my split personalty disorder.

Ohh wait... I have a terrible sensation - maybe, just maybe - - could it be ... no, no, that would be cruel - maybe it's Ted Striker !!! Maybe every time the Ted ego writes something hopeless, the BlackCat ego takes control and tries to reduce the damage.

No, it's just a minor slip in my grasp on reality (myst remeber to tell shrink)

If you are too chicken to defend your own statements, then don't post instead of this kind of BS.




Let Dr. Phil know that I have sent over your records.

shawnmmcc is offline shawnmmcc
Prince

Jan 2003
time: 00:17
  Old Post 18-12-2004 08:15
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Oh, an interesting aside on the Chinese. Evidently some higher up must have looked at the numbers. They are now taking the effects of pollution seriously (single source interview, so this could be window dressing but it supports everything else I've seen on their numbers), and are assigning early middle-aged rising technocrats to deal with it. For those of you who know the Chinese system, that's deadly serious. They take the long view, and as long as they don't have some new cultural revolution, that means in 20-30 years they may have an integrated, versus adversarial, relationship between industry and the environment. Police - Free Market - Wealth (for you SMAC types). It's an interesting combination.

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:17
  Old Post 18-12-2004 08:27 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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Interesting info shawnmmcc


Here's an interesting graphic, the top 5 areas that have improved air quality over the last 20 years are ALL in Southern California. All of these areas have grown in population, economy, and number of vehicles on the road, yet have improved air quality.

LA still has the worst air but has also made the most improvement overall.

http://www.cleanairprogress.org/top_20/index.asp

Attachment: calipolluters.jpg
This has been downloaded 47 time(s).

Last edited by Ted Striker on 18-12-2004 at 08:36

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
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United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:17
Thumbs up  Old Post 18-12-2004 08:29 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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One more graph.

Attachment: cali2.jpg
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Urban Ranger is offline Urban Ranger
Apolyton Duke of Off-Topic

Donate to the Red Cross
The City State of Noosphere, CPA special envoy
May 1999
time: 13:17
  Old Post 18-12-2004 09:36
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Another scientist weighs in Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote:

Glaciologist Lonnie Thompson worries that he may have found clues that show history repeating itself, and if he is right, the result could have important implications to modern society.
.
.
.
“The climate system is remarkably sensitive to natural variability,” he said. “It’s likely that it is equally sensitive to effects brought on by human activity, changes like increased greenhouse gases, altered land-use policies and fossil-fuel dependence.

“Any prudent person would agree that we don’t yet understand the complexities with the climate system and, since we don’t, we should be extremely cautious in how much we ‘tweak’ the system,” he said.

“The evidence is clear that a major climate change is underway.”


article

shawnmmcc is offline shawnmmcc
Prince

Jan 2003
time: 00:17
  Old Post 18-12-2004 09:57
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Thanks UR, I was trying to avoid assembling various cites because my posts are the result of reading probably at this point over 100 articles, and I wasn't taking notes like I would have in college. The effort would have taken me hours or days. What's interesting is that he points to 5,200 years ago, and Paleontological records show some interesting things happening to native American populations in that 7000-5200 year span.

VJ is offline VJ
Prince
Helsinki
Dec 2001
time: 07:17
  Old Post 18-12-2004 18:26
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quote:
4. temperatures around the world (large cities are adjusted for urban heat island' effect. underadjustment is what is given)
a. Punta Arenas 1888-2004: a decrease of 0.6 C
b. Pasadena 1930-2000: an increase of 3.5 C
c. Berkeley 1930 - 2000: an increase of 0.6 C
d. Death Valley 1933 - 2000: an increase of 0.3 C
e. McGill (NV) 1930-2000: a decrease of 1 C
f. Guthrie, OK 1930-2000: decrease of 0.5 C
g. Boulder 1930-1997: decrease of 0.4 C
h. Truman (MO) 1931-2000: decrease of 2.1 C
i. Greenvile (SC) 1930-2000: decrease of 2.3 C
j. Ann Arbor 1930-2000: decrease of 1C
k. Charleston (SC) 1930-2000: increase of 0.2 C
l. New York City 1930-2000: increase of 0.8 C
m. Syracuse (NY) 1930-2000:decrease of 0.9 C
n. Albany (NY) 1930-2000: decrease of 1 C
o. Oswego (NY) 1930-2000: decrease of 0.7 C
p. West Point (NY) 1931-2000: decrease of 0.5 C
q. West Point (NY) 1900-2000: increase of 0.5 C
r. West Point (NY) 1826-2000: increase of < 0.1C
s. New York City 1822-2000: increase of 5 C
t. Albany (NY) 1820-2000: decrease of 0.5 C

5. CO2 levels
1957: 315 ppm
2002: 372 ppm

Picking up random years and then using them to prove a point which you wanted to make before you researched the statistics is always suspicious. I'd be much more comfortable with a whole graph than just two separate values of it.

Apocalypse is offline Apocalypse
King
Lexington, VA: College - Houston, TX: Home
Aug 2005
time: 00:17
  Old Post 01-01-2005 03:39
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I bought the book on Monday and thread about the first 100 pages by Wednesday...and then last night I read it before going to bed around 2 am, planning on just reading a bit (I was planning on reading most of it on the drive back to Virginia) but then stayed up until 9 am reading...took a break...and then again around 1:30 pm I picked it up again and finished the last bit. It was really good. Yeah, it doesn't seem to tell the entire picture, but it makes good points and at least there is a section at the end saying exactly what the author believes. So pretty much despite how you think of what he's doing, at least it isn't that underhanded.

 
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