30-12-2004 04:03									#211
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LOTM, thanks for the article.

I think there are two other quotes from it that deserve emphasis:

quote: In its 2003 annual report on human rights, the U.S. State Department warned that the "alleged espionage cases ... caused continued concerns regarding the lack of due process and the influence of the FSB in court cases. "

quote: Human Rights Watch and other critics say that the defendants are often not allowed to see the charges against them, and that FSB officials sometimes publicly label the defendants guilty even before their cases go to court. '

The Vagabond:
I think these quotes that I emphasize can show a grave problem. The lack of due process, the lack of the "innocent until proven guilty" principle, and the impossibility to know the charges against you are extremely anti-rule-of-law.
I would probably dismiss these problems as inherent to the difficult transition Russia is undergoing... But the really worrisome thing is that this situations seem to be increasing. If these bad processes were an avatar of the transition, they would be decreasing instead.

	30-12-2004 04:45									#212
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark So I take it you have 4 networks that are largely hostile to Putin, and one that automatically defends him?

So you can take it we no longer have networks that irresponsibly destabilize the country at it core.

	30-12-2004 04:51									#213
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor Err, secret services are needed indeed, but only to gather information about violent groups that cannot be fought with the rule of law. A secret police (the way we Westerners understand it) is not the same as ordinary secret services: it strikes people in a completely non-transparent manner, and without following the Law. The rule of Law is extremely important to a functioning democracy (and the State can still function properly), and a secret police is by nature incompatible with this principle. I don't know where DanS has it from, that your secret police is resurging. However, if he has good clues of tsuch a resurgence, it is something that you as a supporter of the democratic principles (even though you want a specific brand of democracy adapted to Russia), should be very wary of.

Well, I believe rumors about a resurging secret police are exaggerated. As for the secret services, they really need to be strenthened. They suffered badly under Yeltsin.

	30-12-2004 04:59									#214
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quote: Originally posted by The Vagabond So you can take it we no longer have networks that irresponsibly destabilize the country at it core.

I really feel sorry for you living in a country where the power of a single network are so strong that the system can't survive such a critisism. That must really be a very feeble system.

I don't know how much you know about Denmark, but news here, whatever it's printed, radio or tv, has a tendency to be critical to the current government whatever the current color may be.

Your crap about that a network are trying to destabilize the country are really far out. The only thing they may be trying to destabilize is the current government so the loose the next election, but if you aren't aware of it, it's a part of democracy - well, maybe you really don't know this .

	30-12-2004 05:10									#215
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The Sutyagin case has nothing to do with secret police. It has to do with secret services.

The fact is that, during the disarray of the Yeltsin era, many scientists and specialists sold out a lot of Russian secrets for their personal benefit. This had to stop. Each country has to guard its secrets. What happens here is a step in this direction. But unfortunately it does not happen without excesses.

In the Sutyagin case, the key point is whether the report he prepared for Americans on Russian weapons systems was based solely on a stuff published in the open press, or a classified material was used. If the latter is the case, he deserves to be condemned. Although I really feel for the guy. He did this in the epoch of total permissiveness, and then suddenly the rules applied again. I think he should be amnestied.

	30-12-2004 05:42									#216
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor LOTM, thanks for the article. I think there are two other quotes from it that deserve emphasis: quote: In its 2003 annual report on human rights, the U.S. State Department warned that the "alleged espionage cases ... caused continued concerns regarding the lack of due process and the influence of the FSB in court cases. " quote: Human Rights Watch and other critics say that the defendants are often not allowed to see the charges against them, and that FSB officials sometimes publicly label the defendants guilty even before their cases go to court. ' The Vagabond: I think these quotes that I emphasize can show a grave problem. The lack of due process, the lack of the "innocent until proven guilty" principle, and the impossibility to know the charges against you are extremely anti-rule-of-law.

I don't think the US State Department and Human Rights Watch are trustworthy sources in what concerns Russia. Personally, I don't believe them a bit. But it's true that there may be nasty excesses in these FSB cases (I don't say this on the basis of the above mentioned 'sources'). For example, a Siberian physisist was acquitted in a jury trial on the charge of espionage in favor of China. Yet he was charged again in a different trial. This is absolutely unacceptable. If acquitted, he cannot be charged again. Unfortunately, there has been no judicial reform in Russia. It's a long due. In part, the excesses may also be due to a sudden change from the epoch of total permissiveness. The inertia of the pendulum, so to say.

quote: I would probably dismiss these problems as inherent to the difficult transition Russia is undergoing... But the really worrisome thing is that this situations seem to be increasing. If these bad processes were an avatar of the transition, they would be decreasing instead.

	30-12-2004 06:07									#217
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Does Sweden consider itself at war with Al Qaeda, after the Madrid attack?

Sweden doesn't consider Spain at war with AQ.

quote: Did Sweden consider itself at war with AQ after the 9/11 attack on the United States? What im getting at is that I wonder if the same "could not imagine" applies to the US and Canada as well - yet Sweden is not in NATO.

I can't speak for him, but I'd assume not.

quote: OTOH perhaps a conventional attack by a state would be considered differently, since some hold that its not legally meaningful to be "at war" with a non-state actor - in which case its not clear what it means to be neutral.

He was speaking in the context of a "traditional" war against a state actor.

He also said that traditional notions of war/peace are heading towards irrelevancy, citing precisely the meaningless of "being at war", "being neutral" and so on wrt non-state actors like AQ.

Combat Ingrid has a point, of course; there's precious little Sweden could do in a conventional war outside it's borders.

	30-12-2004 06:25									#218
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quote: Originally posted by BlackCat I really feel sorry for you living in a country where the power of a single network are so strong that the system can't survive such a critisism. That must really be a very feeble system.

Sadly, that was the case. But please note that there is criticism and criticism. Namely, constructive criticism on the one hand, and overzealous vilification and blackmail in favor of oligarchs-network owners on the other hand. It is the latter that our weakened country could not survive. And I seriously doubt that even a more stable country could survive that.

quote: I don't know how much you know about Denmark, but news here, whatever it's printed, radio or tv, has a tendency to be critical to the current government whatever the current color may be. Your crap about that a network are trying to destabilize the country are really far out. The only thing they may be trying to destabilize is the current government so the loose the next election, but if you aren't aware of it, it's a part of democracy - well, maybe you really don't know this .

Well, you have a well-adjusted system. For you, it could only mean the fall of the government. For us, destruction of the country. But I presume that you just have a civilized criticism on your TV. You have nothing similar to what we had.

Also please note that Denmark is a small country, without any geopolitical pressure on it. It just occupies a cushy place in the Western civilization, it does not depend on itself for survival. Russia, on the other hand, can rely solely on itself for survival in a hostile environment. In this sense, Russia should be compared to the US. Small wealthy and geopolitically irresponsible European countries cannot be an example for us.

	30-12-2004 06:33									#219
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quote: Originally posted by Last Conformist Sweden doesn't consider Spain at war with AQ.

Then why did AQ attack Spain ? Besides, what are your rank in the swedish governemnt ?

quote: I can't speak for him, but I'd assume not.

Why not ? After all, Sweden is a western country.

quote: He was speaking in the context of a "traditional" war against a state actor. He also said that traditional notions of war/peace are heading towards irrelevancy, citing precisely the meaningless of "being at war", "being neutral" and so on wrt non-state actors like AQ. [QUOTE] That may be because history haven't encountred such a thing like AQ before. Could be a reason to change something. [QUOTE] Combat Ingrid has a point, of course; there's precious little Sweden could do in a conventional war outside it's borders.

If i'm not wrong, then you are twisting CI's statement. She stated that Sweden in short time would be impotent to do anything; not that it should be that way.

	30-12-2004 07:00									#220
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quote: Originally posted by The Vagabond Sadly, that was the case. But please note that there is criticism and criticism. Namely, constructive criticism on the one hand, and overzealous vilification and blackmail in favor of oligarchs-network owners on the other hand. It is the latter that our weakened country could not survive. And I seriously doubt that even a more stable country could survive that. Well, you have a well-adjusted system. For you, it could only mean the fall of the government. For us, destruction of the country. But I presume that you just have a civilized criticism on your TV. You have nothing similar to what we had.

Don't by that. Those monsters you are referring to are created by the current system, but that is a simple matter of legislation to control them (of course, that demands that you have to deal with some serious "payment" problems witch will hurt many politicians). What i see is that anyone opposing the government is suppressed, and that's not good.

quote: Also please note that Denmark is a small country, without any geopolitical pressure on it. It just occupies a cushy place in the Western civilization, it does not depend on itself for survival. Russia, on the other hand, can rely solely on itself for survival in a hostile environment. In this sense, Russia should be compared to the US. Small wealthy and geopolitically irresponsible European countries cannot be an example for us.

Agyhh ? What hostile environment ? For more than 60 years the only threat has been that if they attacked others, there would be retailiation. If the soviet hasn't been agressive they may have survived - why do you want to repeat that fault ?

You may have a point about irresponsibility when talking about Denmark - in the 80'ies the opposition to the current government could have pushed the fall of the soviet empire longer into the future - luckily they didn't succed.

If i'm not wrong, then the news - no matter type - is even harsher on the current government in USA than they are in Denmark, so this argument also falls hard to the ground.

	30-12-2004 14:51									#221
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quote: Originally posted by The Vagabond If he can really assuage those concerns, good for him. Russian speakers have a vivid example of what happens to Russian speakers under the patronage of the EU and NATO (see Latvia and Estonia).

Vag, please tell me what you hear about Russian speakers in Latvia and Estonia from your media.

	30-12-2004 14:57									#222
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quote: Originally posted by BlackCat Agyhh ? What hostile environment ? For more than 60 years the only threat has been that if they attacked others, there would be retailiation. If the soviet hasn't been agressive they may have survived - why do you want to repeat that fault ?

Russians need "outside threats" to consolidate the population so that the rulers can carry on doing their thing.

OMG IT"S TEH LATVIAN NAZIS BEATING HUDREDS OF THOUSANDS RUSSIAN SPEAKERS!!!11!1!!!

	30-12-2004 15:26									#223
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quote: Originally posted by BlackCat Then why did AQ attack Spain ?

They didn't like them? They wanted to get them out of Iraq? As it happens, I do not know the motivations of the AQ leadership.

quote: Besides, what are your rank in the swedish governemnt ?

None, of course. Trying to be funny?

quote: Why not ? After all, Sweden is a western country.

What's being western got to do with it?

I'd assume so based on how he expressed himself; he spoke only of the unimaginability of remaining neutral in case of an attack on a fellow EU member - had he included the US and/or Canada, presumably he'd done so explicitly.

quote: That may be because history haven't encountred such a thing like AQ before. Could be a reason to change something.

I dunno if there's anything really new about AQ beyond scale. At any rate, it has already precipitated changes in Sweden's security arrangements. But as long as it lacks either an army to fight or a territory to occupy, it's hard to see what's to gain from seeing it as a traditional belligerent.

quote: If i'm not wrong, then you are twisting CI's statement. She stated that Sweden in short time would be impotent to do anything; not that it should be that way.

How in hell is "there's precious little Sweden could do in a conventional war outside it's borders" as statement of how anything should be?

	30-12-2004 16:41									#224
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I don't think anyone posted this yet so: Yanukovich hit by egg!

I'm especially amazed by how he's thrown to the ground by the violent force of the enemy projectile

	30-12-2004 16:48									#225
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Teh egg!

	30-12-2004 18:27									#226
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quote: Originally posted by The Vagabond I don't think the US State Department and Human Rights Watch are trustworthy sources in what concerns Russia. Personally, I don't believe them a bit.

And the Russian authorities is more of a proper source?

Yanokuvich deserves a whole bunch of eggs. He's trying to ruin his country's emerging democratic institutions. Why can't he just concede and admit that he lost? I want him investigated for what happened in the 2nd vote, if he concedes or not.

	30-12-2004 21:28									#227
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo Why can't he just concede and admit that he lost?

Why couldn't Yushchenko just concede and admit that he lost?

	30-12-2004 21:32									#228
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Yushchenko had some good reasons to believe he might still carry the day by refusing to concede. Do you think Yanukovich has?

	30-12-2004 21:40									#229
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quote: Originally posted by Last Conformist Yushchenko had some good reasons to believe he might still carry the day by refusing to concede. Do you think Yanukovich has?

I don't think so, because the seat of his support is not Kyiv, meaning that he can't have a mob-rule over the institutions. He can't have a favourable mob invade the Constitutional Court, for example.

However, he may have a legal case against Yushchenko, and he should use it. I think it would be best for Ukraine if Yushchenko won the legal case (even though I doubt it, not that I think the election was clean enough, but I think the lack of mob support in Kyiv will mean the Constitutional Court won't back him). Such a continuation of the crisis would force Ukraine to hold elections that are actually free, and that correspond to the Ukrainian Law*.
Should Yushchenko win unchallenged, it would prove that you can win elections no matter the processes or the results, if you have the support of the crowd in Kyiv.

Edit: forgot the *
*From what I gather, the Ukrainian law requires to cancel the whole election, and to start a whole new one. As it ordered only to cancel the runoff, the Court did not follow the process closely.

	30-12-2004 21:44									#230
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor I don't think so, because the seat of his support is not Kyiv, meaning that he can't have a mob-rule over the institutions. He can't have a favourable mob invade the Constitutional Court, for example. However, he may have a legal case against Yushchenko, and he should use it. I think it would be best for Ukraine if Yushchenko won the legal case (even though I doubt it, not that I think the election was clean enough, but I think the lack of mob support in Kyiv will mean the Constitutional Court won't back him). Such a continuation of the crisis would force Ukraine to hold elections that are actually free, and that correspond to the Ukrainian Law*. Should Yushchenko win unchallenged, it would prove that you can win elections no matter the processes or the results, if you have the support of the crowd in Kyiv.

spiffs swallowed it, hook, line and sinker.

	30-12-2004 21:56									#231
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark spiffs swallowed it, hook, line and sinker.

Do you think those elections were clean? Do you think the supporters of Yushchenko had "pure" intentions, in that they merely demonstrated for free elections, instead of merely demanding the victory of their candidate? Do you think Yushchenko was fighting for freedom and democracy, rather than from his own rise to power?

Yushchenko, just like Yanukovich, is a self-centered *******, and he used non-democratic means for his rise to power (namely, he used the crowd to block many strategic points in the country, and his crowd invaded institutions).

No matter how I disliked Yushchenko's role in it, I think it was a good thing that the Ukrainian population opposed the massive cheats during the first runoff. I now hope the Ukrainians will oppose the antidemocratic methods of the second runoff - even if this opposition happens to support the other antidemocratic clown that is Yanukovich.
If both crowds have it their way (in turn), I hope it will pave the way for genuine elections in Ukraine, as the candidates will understand that undemocratic elections can't pass unchallenged.

	30-12-2004 22:11									#232
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor Do you think those elections were clean? .

Based on what international observers have said, the fraud was minor this time around. AFAICT the difference in the results is ENTIRELY due to that fact. Equating the two elections is absurd, and you know it. As for whether it was legal to repeat the second election without going back to the first, I dont know enough Ukrainian law to say so, and neither do you. I however am not taking the word of two posters whose tone and substance deny them credibility. I DO know that the strategic reason that the Kuchma forces wanted to go back to round 1, was that Yuschenko was almost out of money, and they were not, DESPITE the BS being thrown around about US and EU money.

Are Yusch and his supporters interested in winning. Sure. Thats usually the case when someone contests a fraudulent election. Thats neither here nor there - maybe our anglo saxon adversary system of justice inures me to that - I do doubt very much whether the INTENSITY of the crowds was unrelated to the fraud, and larger fraudulence of the Ukrainian system under Kuchma. I gather that from Western media interviews with members of the crowds. Of course if you think all those media outlets are part of a grand conspiracy you may discount them. And of course its easier to tell whats going in Kiev from Siberia. Where you have the benefit of fair and balanced news sources.

	30-12-2004 22:13									#233
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor Yushchenko, just like Yanukovich, is a self-centered *******, and he used non-democratic means for his rise to power (namely, he used the crowd to block many strategic points in the country, and his crowd invaded institutions). .

They may have been illegal means. They were NOT undemocratic means.

	30-12-2004 22:33									#234
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark This thread sorely lacks a UKRAINIAN.

That would be me

Kharkov, East Ukraine.

Yanukovich
Yushchenko
At least it's (hopefully) over

I voted Moroz in the 1st round, Yanukovich in the 2nd, skipped the 3rd one.

Honestly, it is very difficult to say which one of the two candidates is more repulsive.

Yanukovich is unacceptable to anyone with a little intelligence. It's puzzling Giancarlo does not support him.

On a personal level Yushchenko is somewhat better (I'm grading on a curve here), but his team is a bunch of morons one cannot easily find even in James Bond movies.

The only thing I'm somewhat pleased about is that Yu didn't win by a large margin, and that his support in E.Ukraine did not change much between 2nd and 3rd rounds. At least he won't have any ground to claim that he has an overwhelming popular support or any crap like that.

BTW, could it be that Heresson calls Yu supporters orangeutants? Could it be after all that there is such a thing as a Pole not supporting Yushchenko?

	30-12-2004 22:36									#235
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Double post -- sorry

	30-12-2004 22:47									#236
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quote: Originally posted by ErikM That would be me Kharkov, East Ukraine. Yanukovich Yushchenko At least it's (hopefully) over I voted Moroz in the 1st round, Yanukovich in the 2nd, skipped the 3rd one. Honestly, it is very difficult to say which one of the two candidates is more repulsive. Yanukovich is unacceptable to anyone with a little intelligence. It's puzzling Giancarlo does not support him. On a personal level Yushchenko is somewhat better (I'm grading on a curve here), but his team is a bunch of morons one cannot easily find even in James Bond movies. The only thing I'm somewhat pleased about is that Yu didn't win by a large margin, and that his support in E.Ukraine did not change much between 2nd and 3rd rounds. At least he won't have any ground to claim that he has an overwhelming popular support or any crap like that. BTW, could it be that Heresson calls Yu supporters orangeutants? Could it be after all that there is such a thing as a Pole not supporting Yushchenko?

ah a ukrainian, at last.

Erik, i saw one article, I think it was in the Washington Post, saying that Kharkov at least was warming up to Yusch. I take it that was exagerated, and didnt effect the vote.

Were there any provinces in Ukraine that swung? the only electoral maps ive seen have been from the November election. Is Kharkov significantly different politically from Donetsk?

	30-12-2004 22:52									#237
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quote: Originally posted by Serb You ask me to waste hell knows how many hours to make a research for you? Who will pay for that study? Donetsk region alone is reponsible for 25% of Ukranian GDP. You have to believe me

Not quite but close

Value added data for Ukraine from http://ipa.net.ua:

code:

Region        Value added, mln. UAH%Total
Donetsk                       19500 12.99%
City of Kiev                  17622 11.74%
Dnepropetrovsk                14504 9.66%
Kharkov                        9815 6.54%
Odessa                         8147 5.43%
Zaporozhye                     8056 5.37%
Lugansk                        7120 4.74%
Kiev                           6341 4.22%
Lviv                           5880 3.92%
Poltava                        4810 3.20%
Crimea                         4294 2.86%
Vinnitsa                       4270 2.84%
Nikolaev                       3876 2.58%
Sumy                           3551 2.36%
IvanoFrankivsk                 3532 2.35%
Cherkassy                      3350 2.23%
Chernygiv                      3339 2.22%
Khmelnitski                    3190 2.12%
Zhitomir                       3005 2.00%
Rivny                          2773 1.85%
Kherson                        2641 1.76%
Volyn                          2500 1.66%
Zakarpatye                     2365 1.58%
Ternopil                       2099 1.40%
Kirovograd                     2027 1.35%
Chernivtsi                     1545 1.03%

Total                        150152100.00%

	30-12-2004 23:26									#238
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Erik, i saw one article, I think it was in the Washington Post, saying that Kharkov at least was warming up to Yusch. I take it that was exagerated, and didnt effect the vote.

+2% in favor of Yushchenko in Kharkov. Not statistically significant.

quote: Were there any provinces in Ukraine that swung? the only electoral maps ive seen have been from the November election.

No. In two provinces, there was a rather sharp increase in favor of Yushchenko. From memory, Sumy went something like 60%->75% in favor of Yu and Kirovograd something like 52%->60%.

quote: Is Kharkov significantly different politically from Donetsk?

Kharkov is more of a scientific/educational center, and Donetsk is more of an industrial center. For a very rough analogy, think Donetsk=Detroit and Kharkov=Boston.

Donetsk supports Yanukovich because it is reliant on Russia both import-wise and export-wise.

Kharkov supports Yanukovich by variety of reasons. For instance, I teach in one of the Kharkov universities. Despite a general decline in educational standarts in post-Soviet universities, we still remain reasonably competitive in attracting international students from China, India, Vietnam, Southern Russia, and so on, as there are a lot of Russian-speakers in these countries. Incidentally, their tuitions are an important source of funding for our universities. If Yushchenko gang pushes thru with their Ukrainization policies, we can kiss this market good-bye, and I think you'd agree that it would be a shame.

So for me the only question was whether I should cross out both candidates (which sorta gives you a moral high ground but frankly is a fairly pointless thing to do) or vote Yanukovich, a repulsive thug as he may be.

	30-12-2004 23:34									#239
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quote: Originally posted by ErikM Yanukovich is unacceptable to anyone with a little intelligence. It's puzzling Giancarlo does not support him.

I like Fez much more since I determined to view him as a bot providing comic relief.

	30-12-2004 23:39									#240
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What does this "ukrainization" programme entail, anyway?