03-02-2005 04:49									#331
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The three big reasons for continuing black outs are 1) ever increasing demand 2) stabotage 3) Theft of copper electrical lines which are then sold for cash.

	03-02-2005 05:01									#332
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin To clear the ignorance which has built up in this thread let us review a few facts. 1) In 2004 the Iraqi economy grew at an amazing 37% rate and economists are predicting a 41% growth rate in 2005. This is due to the ending of the sanctions, the restoration of normal business and the near complete lifting of all government tariffs. Under Saddam tarrifs and export controls averaged triple digits on most goods. 2) The New Iraqi Dinar has been doing well on international markets based upon strong domestic growth and increased rates of oil exporting. 1,950 NID per $U.S. in October 2003 to around 1,460 NID per $U.S. by mid-October 2004. 3) Financially the Iraqi government is better then it has been in decades. $55 billion in aid has been given with $33 billion more pledged plus creditors have slashed the national debt from $250 billion (if reporations owed are included) to only 20% of that amount. Iraq went from being the most indebted country on earth (as a percent of GDP) to only about as bad a Brazil. 4) In 1990 Iraq Generated 9,300MW of electricity but the 1991 war destroyed 90% of Iraq's electrical grid. The Iraqi government rebuilt throughout the 1990's though pre-invasion was only producing 4000 MW. Back in Nov 2004 (the most recent figures I found) 5000MW were being produced with demand at 7500 MW. That means 25% more electicity then pre-war and power plants currently under construction will increase capacity to 9000MW by the end of 2005 though this deadline might not be achieved. 5) Unemployment has halved since the invasion and with the projected strong economic growth it is expected to continue falling. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/iraq.html

How much of the Iraqi economic growth is fueled by the debt cancelations, US aid and oil industry coming back on line? Certainly there wasn't much to build from, so even small growth (in absolute terms), from whatever source, is bound to look impressive as a percentage. What I'd like to see is what foreign private investment is doing. Last I heard, nobody wanted to touch Iraq with a ten foot pole, which means the money that could be made isn't worth the risks.

	03-02-2005 05:40									#333
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Jaako, I see you ignored my question. I understand why, given your insistence that the resistance is self-sustaining, fueled by the Iraqis themselves. But the evidence is contrary. Suicide bombers either are Saudis or duped Iraqis. The Iraqis themselves do not seem so dedicated to overthrowing democracy and restoring the rule of Saddam and his family.

The sooner Saddam is tried and actually excuted the better. It will pull the rug out from the insurgency big time.

	03-02-2005 12:50									#334
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Jaako, I see you ignored my question. I understand why, given your insistence that the resistance is self-sustaining, fueled by the Iraqis themselves. But the evidence is contrary. Suicide bombers either are Saudis or duped Iraqis. The Iraqis themselves do not seem so dedicated to overthrowing democracy and restoring the rule of Saddam and his family. The sooner Saddam is tried and actually excuted the better. It will pull the rug out from the insurgency big time.

The overwhelming majority of insurgents are NOT suicide bombers.

In any case, you tell an anecdote of a single day's events, that may or may not be accurate, and expect us to treat it as giving the entire picture of the insurgency. That doesn't make sense. In Fallujah for example, there were few foreign fighters. How does that reconcile with your ideas here?

	03-02-2005 13:16									#335
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quote: Originally posted by Jaakko How much of the Iraqi economic growth is fueled by the debt cancelations, US aid and oil industry coming back on line? Certainly there wasn't much to build from, so even small growth (in absolute terms), from whatever source, is bound to look impressive as a percentage. What I'd like to see is what foreign private investment is doing. Last I heard, nobody wanted to touch Iraq with a ten foot pole, which means the money that could be made isn't worth the risks.

Billions of dollars have been pumped into the economy. Of course the economy will grow. Amazingly the unemployment rate is over 60%. One would think that the objective would be to create jobs. Who really cares how much the economy is growing if jobs aren't created.

	03-02-2005 13:21									#336
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quote: Originally posted by Kidicious Billions of dollars have been pumped into the economy. Of course the economy will grow. Amazingly the unemployment rate is over 60%. One would think that the objective would be to create jobs. Who really cares how much the economy is growing if jobs aren't created.

Not 60%, 26.8% by the latest I saw. That 60% includes under-employment.
That's actually another interesting thing I'd like to know, how Iraq's unemployment percentages are counted. Even western countries have been known to massage the statistics to artificially lower the percentage.

	03-02-2005 20:02									#337
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quote: Originally posted by Jaakko In Fallujah for example, there were few foreign fighters. How does that reconcile with your ideas here?

we dont actually know how many foreign fighters there were in Fallujah. Captured fighters origins were determined by their Arabic dialects. Dead ones were identified only by IDs on their bodies. If a foreigner was carrying no ID, or was carrying Iraqi ID, he would not have been counted as foreign.

By the way, did you know that the old pro-Saddam Iraqi embassy in Damascus is still functioning under the protection of the govt of Syria? And that it is handing out Iraqi ids?

	03-02-2005 20:14									#338
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Indications are that Sunni minority has boycotted the election. How can any constitution be representative of Iraqi people without Sunni's involved. Until Sunni's are appeased somehow, they should be considered as insurgents who dont support the government. If the US had anyone with any foreign policy skill, they would have made sure Sunnis were on board before the election.. What a quagmire this Iraq is and will be for years..

	03-02-2005 21:40									#339
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quote: Originally posted by bfg9000 Indications are that Sunni minority has boycotted the election. How can any constitution be representative of Iraqi people without Sunni's involved. Until Sunni's are appeased somehow, they should be considered as insurgents who dont support the government. If the US had anyone with any foreign policy skill, they would have made sure Sunnis were on board before the election.. What a quagmire this Iraq is and will be for years..

some sunnis did vote. predominantly sunni parties led by Pres. Yawer and by adnan Pachachi are expected to get several assembly seats each. NY Times this morning has an article on voting in Mosul, suggesting some Sunni Arabs voted there out of tribal loyalty to Yawer.

In any case the leading Shiites have indicated strongly that they intend to invite Sunnis into the constitutional discussions, whatever the election results. The leaders of the Association of Muslim Scholars, a key group that boycotted, seem to be interested in taking them up on that.

	03-02-2005 23:13									#340
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quote: Originally posted by Jaakko The overwhelming majority of insurgents are NOT suicide bombers. In any case, you tell an anecdote of a single day's events, that may or may not be accurate, and expect us to treat it as giving the entire picture of the insurgency. That doesn't make sense. In Fallujah for example, there were few foreign fighters. How does that reconcile with your ideas here?

Good point. But there was one other incident where a suicide bomber survived. He too was duped. He had only been told to deliver a vehicle to a location. When he began to get out, the bomb went off.

I think majority, but not all of course, of the resistance consists of former regime elements. Documents indicate that Saddam planned this form of resistance as soon as war became a distinct possibility. They have been joined by Zarqawi and other foreign fighters, who may or may not support Saddam, but really do not want democracy in Iraq.

If we eliminate Saddam, a lot of the reason for the resistance will be vanish, plus a lot of the funding. Saddam is funding the resistance with skimmed oil-for-food money, which is estimated to be in the billions. But until Saddam is eliminated, or all his top lieutenants are captured, I think the resistance continues.

(While the priniciple of attorney-client privilege is sacred in American law, I hope we make an exception with Saddam. I assume he is communicating with his people through his lawyers.)

A possible problem here is that Saddam top boys may be directing events from Syria. It will be interesting to see how we handle this if we locate them. Take them out, or demand that Syria arrest them?

	03-02-2005 23:14									#341
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quote: Originally posted by Jaakko Not 60%, 26.8% by the latest I saw. That 60% includes under-employment. That's actually another interesting thing I'd like to know, how Iraq's unemployment percentages are counted. Even western countries have been known to massage the statistics to artificially lower the percentage.

I'm not going to take the coalitions word for it, when so many other sources have stated otherwise. Are there anyother sources who say the unemployment rate is lower than 50%?

	03-02-2005 23:19									#342
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quote: Originally posted by bfg9000 Indications are that Sunni minority has boycotted the election. How can any constitution be representative of Iraqi people without Sunni's involved. Until Sunni's are appeased somehow, they should be considered as insurgents who dont support the government. If the US had anyone with any foreign policy skill, they would have made sure Sunnis were on board before the election.. What a quagmire this Iraq is and will be for years..

The problem is not the "Sunni's" per se. It is Saddam.

	04-02-2005 02:10									#343
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quote: Originally posted by Jaakko My bad, it was the leader of SCIRI that said it. The Iraqi prez does hope for a withdrawal by the end of 2005, though, which was missing from your quote.

Do you actually read the things you link to?

From YOUR article

'Mr Hakim said Iraq's next government might discuss whether to tell foreign troops to leave. Washington has said it will pull out its forces if Baghdad asks it to, but says such a request is unlikely. Many mainstream Iraqi politicians say it is far too soon to talk about a troop withdrawal.

"No one welcomes the foreign troops in Iraq. We believe in the ability of Iraqis to run their own issues, including the security issue," Mr Hakim said. "Of course this issue could be brought up by the new government"'

	04-02-2005 02:17									#344
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quote: Originally posted by Ned The problem is not the "Sunni's" per se. It is Saddam.

details? how will 'getting rid of' (killing?) Saddam solve any of Iraq's serious problems?

	04-02-2005 02:37									#345
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Do you actually read the things you link to? From YOUR article 'Mr Hakim said Iraq's next government might discuss whether to tell foreign troops to leave. Washington has said it will pull out its forces if Baghdad asks it to, but says such a request is unlikely. Many mainstream Iraqi politicians say it is far too soon to talk about a troop withdrawal. "No one welcomes the foreign troops in Iraq. We believe in the ability of Iraqis to run their own issues, including the security issue," Mr Hakim said. "Of course this issue could be brought up by the new government"'

Yes, I do. Do you read the arguments you are responding to?

I originally posted the following:

As for withdrawal, it should be screamingly obvious that the American occupation is not popular, regardless of how people regard the insurgency. The vast majority of Iraqis think they can handle things themselves. The Iraqi president himself came out recently and expressed this very sentiment. In other words, you have absolutely no basis for dismissing talk of US withdrawal as the voice of suicide bombers.

The most relevant bit in bold, obviously replacing president with the Hakim fellow.

What was your accusation again?

	04-02-2005 02:48									#346
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quote: Originally posted by Jaakko Yes, I do. Do you read the arguments you are responding to? I originally posted the following: As for withdrawal, it should be screamingly obvious that the American occupation is not popular, regardless of how people regard the insurgency. The vast majority of Iraqis think they can handle things themselves. The Iraqi president himself came out recently and expressed this very sentiment. In other words, you have absolutely no basis for dismissing talk of US withdrawal as the voice of suicide bombers. The most relevant bit in bold, obviously replacing president with the Hakim fellow. What was your accusation again?

Er, in case you havent been watching too closely, the position of the US administration is that ultimately the Iraqis can handle things themselves. Thats why the US is focusing on training Iraqi forces. I assumed you meant something more than that, like Iraqi leaders think they can handle things themselves NOW. Which they do not.

	04-02-2005 02:49									#347
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Er, in case you havent been watching too closely, the position of the US administration is that ultimately the Iraqis can handle things themselves. Thats why the US is focusing on training Iraqi forces. I assumed you meant something more than that, like Iraqi leaders think they can handle things themselves NOW. Which they do not.

Well, you know what they say about people who assume...

	04-02-2005 02:57									#348
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quote: Originally posted by Jaakko Yes, I do. Do you read the arguments you are responding to? I originally posted the following: As for withdrawal, it should be screamingly obvious that the American occupation is not popular, regardless of how people regard the insurgency. The vast majority of Iraqis think they can handle things themselves. The Iraqi president himself came out recently and expressed this very sentiment. In other words, you have absolutely no basis for dismissing talk of US withdrawal as the voice of suicide bombers. The most relevant bit in bold, obviously replacing president with the Hakim fellow. What was your accusation again?

you posted in response to the following:
"Withdrawal is a fine and good thing and will be done, but doing it before there are a stable government would not do anything than start a civil war. You want that we shall respect the voice of the Iraqui people, well, why not let them speak for themself as the have done in the election instead of the "voice" of suicide bombers"



As far as I can tell from the quotes, both Yawer AND Hakim agree with Black Cats quote above - except that the focus is on adequate Iraqi security capability - im not sure if that was what black cat meant by stable govt. You responded to him as if you disagreed - ergo i assumed you thought there was something in your quotes that contradicted him.

So, we're all agreed that leading Iraqis want the US to withdraw, but not until Iraqi is much further along in its security capabilities?

	04-02-2005 03:05									#349
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Iraqi security forces are a bits away from being effective themselves. This is assuming nothing dramatic occurs in the coming months.

	04-02-2005 03:09									#350
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Iraqi security forces are a bits away from being effective themselves. This is assuming nothing dramatic occurs in the coming months.

yes my point exactly. The most optimistic Iraqi official said 6 months - most say 18 months. US officials wont give a date, just that for planning they want to keep 135,000 troops in till end of 2005.

Myers says today that of the 135,000 "trained and equipped" Iraqi forces, 40,000 can be used on there own anywhere in the country. The rest can still be useful, but have a long way to go.

	04-02-2005 03:12									#351
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark you posted in response to the following: "Withdrawal is a fine and good thing and will be done, but doing it before there are a stable government would not do anything than start a civil war. You want that we shall respect the voice of the Iraqui people, well, why not let them speak for themself as the have done in the election instead of the "voice" of suicide bombers" As far as I can tell from the quotes, both Yawer AND Hakim agree with Black Cats quote above - except that the focus is on adequate Iraqi security capability - im not sure if that was what black cat meant by stable govt. You responded to him as if you disagreed - ergo i assumed you thought there was something in your quotes that contradicted him. So, we're all agreed that leading Iraqis want the US to withdraw, but not until Iraqi is much further along in its security capabilities?

BlackCat's reply was to my post talking about agreeing to a timetable for withdrawal.
As such, it was his equating talk of early withdrawal with terrorists that bothered me, and thus I wanted to show that withdrawal is already on the table, from the (future) Iraqi government's side.

I certainly don't think US troops should just up and leave. However, I see nothing wrong with a quick timetable for withdrawal either, if the Iraqi government sees it proper. After all, it's their sovereign right to kick out foreigners, ill advised or not.

But yeah, a lot of the disagreement here was merely because of talking past one another.

	04-02-2005 04:14									#352
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quote: Originally posted by Geronimo details? how will 'getting rid of' (killing?) Saddam solve any of Iraq's serious problems?

There is overall agreement here and elsewhere that the primary resistances by "former regime elements." These people are not fighting solely to drive the Americans out of Iraq, but to restore the former regime to power. Their leader is still alive and in jail, and undoubtedly inspires even if he does not lead the resistance directly. Saddam is like a Mafia boss who has been placed in jail, but who continues to be the mob leader, regardless of whether or not he is free to personally direct day-to-day operations. The eventual goal of the resistance is to restore the former regime, as I said before, and hopefully get Saddam back in the power. So long as Saddam lives, there is hope for the former regime elements to succeed. Thus, as long as he continues to live, there is no doubt in my mind at the resistance will continue. But if he dies, there is no legitimate heir as Saddam's sons are gone. Therefore there is a chance, a good chance, that if Saddam is gone the resistance will end, at the least by the "former regime elements."

	04-02-2005 06:19									#353
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quote: Originally posted by Jaakko BlackCat's reply was to my post talking about agreeing to a timetable for withdrawal. As such, it was his equating talk of early withdrawal with terrorists that bothered me, and thus I wanted to show that withdrawal is already on the table, from the (future) Iraqi government's side. I certainly don't think US troops should just up and leave. However, I see nothing wrong with a quick timetable for withdrawal either, if the Iraqi government sees it proper. After all, it's their sovereign right to kick out foreigners, ill advised or not. But yeah, a lot of the disagreement here was merely because of talking past one another.

You may have hit something with your last line, but it has been that clear.

I certainly think that withdrawal shall happen, but when and if it shall be done according to a strict time table, there I'm not so sure.

The Iraqui government are a open question here, but unless the election should end up in something far to the right of Iran, then I think that they don't want any foreign troops to leave before Iraq itself are capable of maintaining a reasonable security. But I also think that it will be insane to commit to a strict timetable, say in six months half shall be gone and in next six the rest goes. What if after six months Iraq isn't able to take over and the missing troops make it impossible to protect people ? That would be a disaster because either you leave and chaos starts or you stay and gives ammo to the view that we are just liars that don't have the intent to leave. I'll much prefer that withdrawal is done on a 'not need to stay' descicion when the Iraquis are capable to protect themselves. Some may say that it just are an excuse to stay forever, but why are there then so much work done to build up the Iraqui policeforces ?

	04-02-2005 07:14									#354
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quote: Myers says today that of the 135,000 "trained and equipped" Iraqi forces, 40,000 can be used on there own anywhere in the country. The rest can still be useful, but have a long way to go.

Most of those are shake n' bake cops who've only had a 2 week training course.

	04-02-2005 07:37									#355
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quote: Cole accussed these bloggers of being CIA agents and he got his ass handed to him for making that rediculous statement. worm all you want but that's the kind of guy you are quoting.

Prove it. I read the post where Cole supposedly said that, it was clear that he said that they might be trolls. As I said earlier, "CIA" wasn't even in that post. Hell, he even retracted his post soon afterwards (correcting himself with regards to the TX server issue). So continue making ignorant accusations about people you disagree with, that doesn't change the facts.

quote: apparently he didnt use the word CIA, but only intimated it, talking about where they got their support from.

In his own words:
"It is now being alleged in the rightwing press (which really is a paid-for manipulation of public opinion) that I said that the Ali brothers were connected to the CIA. I never said any such thing. My phrase "certain quarters" referred to, at most, the Republican Party or organizations associated with it. As the email below should make clear, I never thought that charge plausible. Some have suggested that the controversy endangers the brothers' lives. But if meeting with high US officials in Washington and blogging about it does not, nothing would."
http://www.juancole.com/2004/12/ira...er-12-just.html

quote: Remember, this is a guy who likes to talk about the "likud supporters" in the administration. He knows how to imply something, while maintaining full deniability.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Criticizing the actions of Feith et al. with regards to Israeli policy makes you an anti-Semite?

	04-02-2005 19:24									#356
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Somehow this conversation had actually returned to facts on the ground in Iraq. Can we keep it off of the personal qualities of Juan Cole, Feith, et al? Suffice it to say that Juan Cole is highly respected in SOME quarters, and is NOT respected at all in many others, and not just in the Republican press. He can certainly be cited as one source, but I wouldnt consider him an authority. However where an ANALYSIS by him is cited, without appeal to authority, it would be preferable to critique his analysis, and not rehash other controversies about him. Similar approaches should be take to commentators and officials of all stripes - attack the analysis, not the analyst. The obvious exception is where whats being cited is not an analysis, but a statement of fact, an eyewitness report, etc where we are forced to rely on the credibility of the source.

Last edited by lord of the mark on 04-02-2005 at 19:31

	04-02-2005 19:34									#357
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quote: Originally posted by Boshko Most of those are shake n' bake cops who've only had a 2 week training course.

My understanding is that training has been transformed and intensified since Maj Gen. Petraues (sp?) took over back in June. Also the ING always received heavier training than the IP.

In any case Myers says the 40,000 are not just trained, but capable of real combat throughout Iraq. This is higher than a number cited by Joe Biden (D-Delaware) but that discussion was weeks ago, and may have used outdated info.

	04-02-2005 20:12									#358
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So now that it is clear that the pro-Iran Shiites will win the election, what does the US do? This is clearly what they do not want to happen..

	04-02-2005 20:24									#359
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quote: Originally posted by bfg9000 So now that it is clear that the pro-Iran Shiites will win the election, what does the US do? This is clearly what they do not want to happen..

I dont think Ayatollah Sistani wants Iraq to be subordinate to Iran. In any case, its NOT clear what the final returns will look like. Your source, please?

	04-02-2005 20:54									#360
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark I dont think Ayatollah Sistani wants Iraq to be subordinate to Iran. In any case, its NOT clear what the final returns will look like. Your source, please?

According to the NYT with 35% of the votes counted, mainly from Baghdad and the Shiite south the allience has 67% of the vote. It is beyond obvious that at least outside the Kurdish areas, given the lower voter turnout amongst Sunnis, that the List supported by Sistani will undoubtedly win, whih Alawi and Kurdish parties coming in second and third. By how much the Sistani supported list wins is the question left now, but its not really realisitc to think that somehow Sunnis and Kurds voted en mass for Alawi.