29-01-2005 03:24									#1
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Lets try to keep it to events in IRAQ, NOW, not to opinions about Bush, WMDS, the evil French, or whatever.

My comment on another thread:

recent polls suggest an overall turnout of around two thirds, ranging from just over 30% in the Sunni Arab areas, to over 90% in Kurdistan. I expect turnout will be close to zero in parts of Anbar province, and parts of Mosul. Sunni turnout will be higher in areas like Diyala prov. Big question will be turnout in Baghdad, as an indicator of security in the capital. Ive heard projections of two thirds turnout, but that would include the overwhelming Shia sections of east Baghdad.


Ive seen a poll quoted indicating likely results as 42% for the Iraqi Alliance (the Sistani-SCIRI-Dawa-Chalabi list) 22% for the Kurdish alliance, and 20% for the Iraqi List (the list of PM Allawi). Scattered votes for everyone else - including the Communists, the Monarchists, some Sunni Groups, minor ethnic groups, secular democratic groups, etc.

Based on that it would be mathematically possible for the IA to form a coalition without the Kurds or Allawi, but I think that would be politically very difficult. Similarly, Allawi and the Kurds could try to freeze Sistani out, but that would be explosive, and almost impossible.
One possibility would be a broad coalition of the three main forces. Depends how much bad blood the Shias have for Allawi and some of the ex-Baathists in his administration. Theres an excellent chance that a coalition of the IA and the Kurds could freeze Allawi out, but I dont know if the Kurds would be comfortable with that.

	29-01-2005 03:28									#2
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I heard there are 111 candidates on the ballot for PM. How in the hell do Iraqi's know who to vote for?

International election monitors will be in Amman, Jordan. That's nice.

My prediction: this is a sham, Allawi wins... is US puppet.

	29-01-2005 03:30									#3
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What will this election actually achieve, whichever way it goes?

	29-01-2005 03:33									#4
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quote: Originally posted by Whaleboy What will this election actually achieve, whichever way it goes?

FREEDOM, DUH!

	29-01-2005 03:39									#5
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quote: Originally posted by Sava I heard there are 111 candidates on the ballot for PM. How in the hell do Iraqi's know who to vote for? LOTM - there are too many parties I think. The big question for most iraqis will be to vote for the ins or the outs, and if the outs, whether to vote for Sistanis list or not. International election monitors will be in Amman, Jordan. That's nice. LOTM - apparently some int monitors WILL be in Iraq. There will also be plenty of Iraqi monitors, and plenty of international press present. My prediction: this is a sham, Allawi wins... is US puppet.

You think Allawi will get more than 40% of the vote?

	29-01-2005 03:42									#6
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Sava

I am actually interested in what relevance each different candidate will have. The whole Sunni and Shi'ite thing lost me as soon as I felt my anti-war stance was vindicated (which was a LONG time ago). Obviously the idea that democracy will bring stability and security is ludicrous and delusional.

	29-01-2005 03:42									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Whaleboy What will this election actually achieve, whichever way it goes?

A new govt I expect. Whether this will directly aid in the struggle against the insurgency, Im not sure. The ways it might are subtle, and are likely to drag our discussion away from the elections to the topic of the insurgency. I suspect we're no more than a few posts away from "insurgents are patriots" "you commie terrorist antisemite" "Bush = Hitler" and other things weve all heard before. For now Id rather not discuss strategy in the war - id rather follow the elections on their own terms.

	29-01-2005 03:44									#8
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Indeed, but I don't think it's seperable from the background of insurgency and ****age, and I fail to see how democracy as a political process is going to help things, as opposed to hinder Iraq in the medium/long term, if not short.

	29-01-2005 03:49									#9
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My prediction is (assuming minimal fraud) UIA gets a governing majority (or close to one - if not, it can always form a coalition with i.e Sadrist lists). If there's a lot of fraud, obviously Allawi's going to come out on top.

As for the problems with this election process, it's pretty much a joke, with the top-down party lists, candidates (on the lists) announced just a couple weeks before the eelction, no real campaigning (excepting, i.e. the Communist Party, and those operating in particularly safe areas of Iraq), threat of violence at voting booths (6 polling sites were just blown up yesterday), etc., etc.

	29-01-2005 03:50									#10
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I predict that Sistani's list will get a huge victory on the back of all of the out-of-the-way hamlets in the south that have been untouched by the insurgency.

Turnout should be higher than some suggest.

	29-01-2005 03:52									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Whaleboy Sava I am actually interested in what relevance each different candidate will have. The whole Sunni and Shi'ite thing lost me as soon as I felt my anti-war stance was vindicated (which was a LONG time ago).

Well first its not simply Sunni vs shia - there are several multiethnic parties, and even the so called Shia list has Kurds and Sunni arabs.

As far as I know none of the major parties is calling for an immediate US pullout, though i may be wrong about the Communists, and the anti-US Iraqi Islami Party is on the ballot, though its called for a boycott (though they seem to have relented in one province)

The allawi party is clearly opposed to setting a timetable for US withdrawl, as are the Kurds, I think. The Sistani party HAD called for a timetable, but seems to have backed off that in recent days. I beleive several other parties DO call for a timetable.

The Sistani party calls for some official recognition for Islam - its not clear how far they intend to go, esp in matters of family and inheritance law. The Kurds, Communists, and Allawi supporters, and several smaller parties, take a more secular stance.

The Allawi govt reversed some of the US's early debaathification moves - the Sistani party and the Kurds are likely to go back to debaathification.

The communists support leftist economic policies. The Kurds lean more to market measures, though their parties have socialist roots.

Allawi has been supported by the US State Department, CIA, and apparently be Condi Rice. Some neocons (most overtly Jim Hoagland of the WaPo) think the Sistani party would be an improvement over Allawi. This has much to do with opinions on debaathification, and overtures to "moderate" sunnis.

	29-01-2005 03:55									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo My prediction is (assuming minimal fraud) UIA gets a governing majority (or close to one - if not, it can always form a coalition with i.e Sadrist lists). LOTM - is there a Sadrist list - seems Sadr has gone back and forth between supporting the SIstani list, and calling for a boycott (and no, dont ask me to make sense Sadrs actions) If there's a lot of fraud, obviously Allawi's going to come out on top. As for the problems with this election process, it's pretty much a joke, with the top-down party lists, candidates (on the lists) announced just a couple weeks before the eelction, no real campaigning (excepting, i.e. the Communist Party, and those operating in particularly safe areas of Iraq), threat of violence at voting booths (6 polling sites were just blown up yesterday), etc., etc.

	29-01-2005 03:55									#13
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Too confusing, I'll stick with blackness, doom and exploding Shi'ites. More comforting somehow...

	29-01-2005 03:56									#14
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This election leads to another interim government as the legislature writes the permanent constituion, and once that is done the government will be voted on (say 2006).

I think the Sistani list will dominate the elections, not Allawi. The big mess coming up, besides the continuing insurgency, will be when the constitution is being writen and the level of Kurdish autonomy will be chosed, plus borders of that area.

	29-01-2005 03:57									#15
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Actually lotm, setting a timetable for withdrawal is one of the fundamental planks of the UIA's platform, and Hakim (of SCIRI, leader of UIA) said he favored doing that just a few days ago.

	29-01-2005 03:57									#16
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quote: Originally posted by DanS I predict that Sistani's list will get a huge victory on the back of all of the out-of-the-way hamlets in the south that have been untouched by the insurgency. Turnout should be higher than some suggest.

I dont know - seems SCIRI and Dawa have lost some support in the URBAN areas in the south - apparently theyre blamed for the way theyve run Basra (corrupt, and too fundie for a secular town) Allawi party, and the ICP may have a shot at taking over the provincial govt there.

	29-01-2005 03:58									#17
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Iraqi elections? Hmpff, humbug I say. Just an excuse to put a puppet loyal to Washington in charge of Iraq so that Bush et al can claim that freedom and democracy has finally come to the Iraqi people.

	29-01-2005 03:59									#18
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quote: LOTM - is there a Sadrist list - seems Sadr has gone back and forth between supporting the SIstani list, and calling for a boycott (and no, dont ask me to make sense Sadrs actions)

By a Sadrist list, I mean a party with a Sadrist ideology, not a list lead by Sadr.

	29-01-2005 04:03									#19
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Reagarding the Sadrist list:
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index...07387307830.xml

	29-01-2005 04:04									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Actually lotm, setting a timetable for withdrawal is one of the fundamental planks of the UIA's platform, and Hakim (of SCIRI, leader of UIA) said he favored doing that just a few days ago.

this is from the int. Herald trib


"BAGHDAD In a surprise press conference Sunday, leaders of the Shiite-dominated coalition that is expected to prevail in national elections sought to dispel fears that they are under the secret sway of Iran, or have any desire to create an Islamic theocracy.
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Speaking in offices that were damaged by a car bomb just six days before, leaders of the United Iraqi Alliance urged disaffected Sunnis to join in the elections for a National Assembly, scheduled for Jan. 30.
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They also said that if their coalition gains power it would not demand the immediate withdrawal of American troops, but would wait instead for a stronger Iraqi military.
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Insurgents on Sunday continued their unrelenting campaign to demolish the fledgling Iraqi forces, killing 18 members of the national guard and one civilian with a suicide car bomb near the town of Balad, north of Baghdad.
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"Our group believes in sharing power with all Iraqi factions," Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the Shiite cleric who heads the election slate of the powerful alliance, said at the news conference in Baghdad.
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"We have rejected the idea of a sectarian regime and we believe that Iraq is for all Iraqis." Appearing with Hakim at the briefing was Ahmed Chalabi, a secular Shiite and former exile who ranks high in the alliance slate of candidates. Chalabi said he had just returned from Tehran, where he told Iranian leaders that they must not interfere with Iraq's elections.
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The charge of secret Iranian influence over the alliance, which is led by two huge Shiite religious parties, has been voiced by the king of Jordan and some prominent Sunni politicians. These critics fear that as the Shiite religious groups assert power, Iraq could be steered toward an Iranian-style theocracy.
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Hakim, like many Shiite leaders, lived in exile in Iran during the reign of Saddam Hussein. He heads the largest single Shiite party, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, and enjoys the blessing of Ayatollah Sistani, Iraq's most revered cleric.
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Hakim and Sistani have repeatedly said they do not want clerical control of government, but suspicions run wild among Iraq's Sunnis, who are anxious about the prospect of losing their historic dominance in Iraq.
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Chalabi said in an interview that he told senior Iranian officials, including President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, three things: "First, we do not want any interference in the Iraqi elections; second, the alliance is not about an Islamic republic or a theocratic state, it is about democracy and pluralism, and third, we will need American forces to be in Iraq for the foreseeable future." The Iranian leaders accepted these points, he said. "They understand that the situation in Iraq is very different from Iran," he said.
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Chalabi and other alliance officials pledged that their coalition will not accept any election money from Iran.
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Chalabi said he had traveled to Iran as head of his own party, the Iraqi National Congress. But his rare, prominent appearance beside Hakim suggested that he has gained a strong position within the Shiite coalition.
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A onetime favorite of the Pentagon, Chalabi last year saw a rival exile, Ayad Allawi, take over as interim prime minister. He fell out of favor with the Americans, who asserted that he gave sensitive secrets to Iran. But he has cultivated ties with Shiite groups, and political experts here say that the mainstream clerics now taking center stage appear to value Chalabi's wide international contacts and political experience.
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When American occupation forces will leave Iraq is one of the touchiest political issues. The Shiite clerics know that many of their supporters would like to see foreign troops leave sooner rather than later, but they also know that U.S. protection is needed to hold elections and create a Shiite-led government.
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	29-01-2005 04:07									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Reagarding the Sadrist list: http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index...07387307830.xml

i wonder how much appeal such a list has without open endorsement from Sadr - his movement is about personal appeal as much as ideology, I think.

	29-01-2005 04:10									#22
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13,000 exiled Iraqis can vote here in Denmark, and the ones I've seen interviewed in the media have all been very excited about this opportunity to help influence the future of their country.

They've said they were grateful for the coalition ultimately providing them with democratic rights, and making it so that there were more options on the ballot than a simple "Yes" or "No" to Saddam - and that it didn't have their name and full address at the top...

	29-01-2005 04:10									#23
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Chalabi isn't exactly the most important guy in the UIA list.

From the Guardian 1/23:

quote: Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq As a matter of principle it is very clear that no nation accepts an occupation. It should be the Iraqi government that sets a timetable for the withdrawal of multinational forces. The Iraqi government and the occupation forces should cooperate together to find a suitable timetable in which they can work to have Iraq clear of any occupation forces.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Stor...1396031,00.html
The article's a good read, BTW.

	29-01-2005 04:13									#24
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quote: i wonder how much appeal such a list has without open endorsement from Sadr - his movement is about personal appeal as much as ideology, I think.

I'm not sure that's true (though he is certainly important in driving the movement). The movement after all survived the death of Sadr the Elder and a couple decades of Ba'athist repression. I don't think that a mere personality cult could do that. Anyways, I'd expect it to pick up a few percent, at least.

	29-01-2005 04:15									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Chalabi isn't exactly the most important guy in the UIA list. From the Guardian 1/23: quote: Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq As a matter of principle it is very clear that no nation accepts an occupation. It should be the Iraqi government that sets a timetable for the withdrawal of multinational forces. The Iraqi government and the occupation forces should cooperate together to find a suitable timetable in which they can work to have Iraq clear of any occupation forces.

Well I dont see a problem with that - the new Iraqi Defense Minister, Interior Minister, PM meets with Casey and Negroponte. They all agree that that it would be great to have a timetable. They then agree that this depends on the status of Iraqi forces. They discuss this status. They estimate they will need X Iraqi troops at Y level of efficiency before they can withdraw Q US forces. They agree that when this will be reached is unknowable. In lieu of that, they agree on timetables for training spefic groups of Iraqi forces.

As for Chalabis position, of course hes less important than Hakim. But he made his statements sitting next to Hakim.

	29-01-2005 04:18									#26
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1. I think he clearly said, a timetable for withdrawal, rather than a timetable for training troops.
2. I do see a problem with that. Timetables aren't always conducive to peace (see India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, etc.).

OTOH, it's unlikely that the Sunni Arabs will stop their violence without an immediate timetable.

I'm conflicted over what to do.

	29-01-2005 04:21									#27
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quote: Originally posted by Sava I heard there are 111 candidates on the ballot for PM. How in the hell do Iraqi's know who to vote for? International election monitors will be in Amman, Jordan. That's nice. My prediction: this is a sham, Allawi wins... is US puppet.

There were probably that many on the recall race in California.

A sham? Allawi isn't a US puppet. US puppet this, US puppet that.. is that all you frauds can say?

	29-01-2005 04:21									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo I don't know if there's no problem with that. Timetables aren't always conducive to stopping extremists (see India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, etc.)

thats my point - hakim doesnt demand a timetable - he asks that the Iraqi govt and the coalition should cooperate together to find one - to me that means starting the process of trying to determine a timetable - thinking TOGETHER about the criteria, strategies etc. NOT setting a date in stone.

	29-01-2005 04:22									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Winston 13,000 exiled Iraqis can vote here in Denmark, and the ones I've seen interviewed in the media have all been very excited about this opportunity to help influence the future of their country.

I read in Metro this morning that Sweden, of all places, is the country with the most expat Iraqi voters - about 31k. IIRC, the interviewed ones were both going to vote for Allawi on the grounds that Sistani's bunch isn't secular enough.

	29-01-2005 04:24									#30
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As I said, he did say that he wants a timetable, not a tentative plan that could be changed on the whim of the gov't or coalition.