15-02-2005 00:50									#31
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Here is a good snapshot on our true short-term fiscal circumstances at the federal level. Receipts are growing healthily, driven by high growth in corporate income taxes (they now have income to tax). The government just needs to stop spending so much. This can be done easily enough even considering the continuing war costs.

So far this fiscal year, we are $25 billion ahead of last fiscal year.

http://www.briefing.com/schwab2/ecdata/budget.htm

	15-02-2005 00:59									#32
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quote: Originally posted by Odin Exactly, Taxes must be raised, but if you tell ignorant Joe American the truth about the need to raise taxes you'll be like Mondale in '84. People want thier government programs but don't want to pay for them because TEH REAGAN SAID TAXES ARE TEH EVIL AND THE REAGAN IS NEVER WRONG!!!

Taxes don't need to be raised to 25% however.Reagan had taxes at ~18% and spending at ~20% which was quite manageable. Under Clinton taxes were raised, but the republicans held the line on spending so it was 20% vs 18.5%. however today we are at ~16 and ~24. merely holding the line on spending isn't going to cut it.

	15-02-2005 01:00									#33
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quote: however today we are at ~16 and ~24

More like ~16 and ~20.

	15-02-2005 01:00									#34
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When the revolution comes, angry Americans will be able to hunt down and beat the DanS's of this world.

"DanS" that buddy!!!

	15-02-2005 01:03									#35
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quote: When the revolution comes

Not going anywhere for a while?

	15-02-2005 01:04									#36
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When the revolution comes, the people DanS you.

	15-02-2005 01:06									#37
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quote: So far this fiscal year, we are $25 billion ahead of last fiscal year.

$25 billion? thats pocket change. THE DEBT GROWS AT $1.86 BILLION A DAY.

thats like saying that a thief stole all your property, but its ok, cuz he left $20 for you at the doorway.

	15-02-2005 01:06									#38
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quote: Originally posted by DanS More like ~16 and ~20.

2.57 T / 11T = 23.4%

ah I stand corrected, The money supply has inflated so that our economy grew a trillion dollars in the past 4 years. So it is really around ~21.5% then. bea puts us at 11T in 2000 dollars, just under 12T in today's cash.

	15-02-2005 01:08									#39
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Yeh, but it won't be 11T. More like 12.5T, depending on the time period. It's was running at a 12T rate in Q4 2004.

	15-02-2005 01:11									#40
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quote: THE DEBT GROWS AT $1.86 BILLION A DAY.

No it doesn't. Where are you getting this crap math from? That would be $680 billion a year.

	15-02-2005 01:12									#41
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I probably can't edit that post anymore(without the warning showing up), so I'm forced to concede ground .

	15-02-2005 01:14									#42
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quote: Originally posted by DanS No it doesn't. Where are you getting this crap math from? That would be $680 billion a year.

probably from the fact that they have to pay back what they raid from SS.

	15-02-2005 01:14									#43
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quote: I probably can't edit that post anymore(without the warning showing up), so I'm forced to concede ground

Oh well. Worse things have happened.

	15-02-2005 01:20									#44
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quote: No it doesn't. Where are you getting this crap math from? That would be $680 billion a year.

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

	15-02-2005 01:23									#45
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Misleading statistic to make things appear worse than they are. It increases $1.86 billion every business day. Apparently for him, even the debt takes the weekends and holidays off.

	15-02-2005 01:39									#46
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ok so lets recalculate. [(1.86*5*50)/52]/7

ok so instead of 1.86 billion its 1.27 Billion. MY point stands. Youre so anxious to defend bush that you find every single small piece of good news, such as 'weve spent $25 billion less at than at this point last year'

in the end it just looks pathetic. face it, bush has ****ed up. even rats leave sinking ships.

	15-02-2005 01:41									#47
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quote: I note that CBO's forecast last year at this time for FY '04 was for a deficit of $477 billion. It ended up at $412 billion, 14% less than forecast.

and now you're arguing over a couple of billion? do you consider this a victory? is $412 billion that much better than $477 billion? a measely 13.5%?

	15-02-2005 01:50									#48
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Hey, I never used the CBO figures to make sweeping arguments about Bush's fiscal policies like you did and therefore I don't have to defend them. The math matters in these discussions, since the numbers are so often used to mislead.

My point is that the fiscal situation has turned the corner. To hear some talk of it, quite the opposite would be true.

	15-02-2005 01:55									#49
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quote: Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution Hey, I never used the CBO figures to make sweeping arguments about Bush's fiscal policies like you did and therefore I don't have to defend them. The math matters in these discussions, since the numbers are so often used to mislead.

since the CBO is non partisan group while nearly everyone else has some sort of ax to grind, i think its safe to say that these numbers are accurate. so what if the CBO was off by 13.5%. do you know someone else who was more accurate. or more importantly, do you think that theres a big difference between $477 bn and $412 bn?
what about between $1.86 bn a day and $1.27 bn a day? is $1.27bn a day acceptable to you but not $1.86 bn?

	15-02-2005 02:00									#50
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quote: or more importantly, do you think that theres a big difference between $477 bn and $412 bn

Yes, there is a big difference between the two. The favorite rhetorical gambit is to times the number by 10 for a 10-year figure (or $650 billion).

I have no problem with CBO's figures, so far as it goes. However, they are required by law and custom to assume certain things that may or may not come to pass, and to use figures that may or may not be the most up-to-date.

quote: is $1.27bn a day acceptable to you but not $1.86 bn?

No. As I have stated, Bush spent too much money. However, judging the entire fiscal picture by the most unfavorable part of the business cycle likely will mislead you.

	15-02-2005 02:03									#51
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I'd like to see a like a 1.27 bn dollar surplus per day that we use to pay off the national debt.

	15-02-2005 02:04									#52
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LA, weren't you the one who thought that airports were "safe zones" were people could not be arrested? Like it was some sort of neutral outlaw zone?

	15-02-2005 02:06									#53
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quote: LA, weren't you the one who thought that airports were "safe zones" were people could not be arrested? Like it was some sort of neutral outlaw zone?

yep, what about it?

	15-02-2005 02:20									#54
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quote: Yes, there is a big difference between the two. The favorite rhetorical gambit is to times the number by 10 for a 10-year figure (or $650 billion).

$650 billion . . . do you know by how much the economy will grow by in 10 years? lets say a 3.5% average growth rate, we are at 11.3 T right now, P * (1+r)^n, n = number of years, r = percent rate, we arrive at 15.9 T. So US GDP will grow by 4.6 T over the next 10 years.

$650 billion of 4.6 T? well that works out to be just over 14%. so over 10 years, we are off by 14%. that works out to be off by 1.4% per year. thats pretty good forecasting, dont you think?

	15-02-2005 02:29									#55
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia yep, what about it?

Just making that little factoid known.

	15-02-2005 02:33									#56
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quote: Just making that little factoid known.

aight, thats chill. what bout bushs budget? do you have anything to say about that?

	15-02-2005 02:50									#57
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The deficit is still mostly financed by USians, interest rates are low, and I don't even want to think about where the economy would be without the tax cuts. The tax cuts were a transfer of wealth to the rich. Now Bush wants to cut benefits for the poor and the average USian. Stop all this nonsense about deficit. I don't have a problem with raising taxes, but this BS about the deficit really doesn't help.

	15-02-2005 03:02									#58
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia aight, thats chill. what bout bushs budget? do you have anything to say about that?

yeah, cut the pork, keep the tax cuts.

	15-02-2005 05:09									#59
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Never understimate the role of stupidity and greed in determining world history. The GOP is partying on the Titanic. Their hubris will bring down the whole country. The solution? Revolution!

Che, Republicans? All I have heard from since Bush proposed reducing the growth rate in spending is from Democrats.

	15-02-2005 05:32									#60
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quote: yeah, cut the pork, keep the tax cuts.

what pork specifically?

quote: All I have heard from since Bush proposed reducing the growth rate in spending is from Democrats.

that shouldnt be a problem since you control both houses. if stuff doesnt happen, its not on the democrats, its on you.