19-02-2005 00:27									#121
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin Shall I pull out another quality study showing what pieces of **** Euro cars are compared to American cars? Not even your luxury brands are put together as well as our econo brands. You Euros need to learn how to put together a quality car.

Mercs and BMWs are crap compared to US cars? Love to see some evidence of that! Moreover our looking at luxury brands like Rollys Royce, how can that be badly made with that many high skilled workers putting in that many man hours?

	19-02-2005 00:28									#122
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quote: Originally posted by DanS I just don't know what will happen -- assuming that global warming is real -- and neither do you. Neither do the scientists, because they're basing their work on models of unknown validity. I find it incredible that you have so much faith in the outlines of a phenomenon about which we don't know much. You're a religious fanatic.

I honestly, really resent that. Really...no kidding. Have I insulted you in any way?

I am no zealot, and certainly no tree-hugger, or anything like that. I just take the point of view, that there is a risk that we know little about, and therefore it is far better to play safe. Since the potential risk involves the whole world, then the whole world has to play ball. That's all I'm saying.

Asmodean

	19-02-2005 00:32									#123
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin You see now you're using logic. That's no good since they love to run around in fits of hysteria. They'd love to forget about the hysterical claims about the Ozone layer being gone by 2000 or the Amazon rain forest being gone in 1995. There are always these dire prodictions about the end of the world that never come true and which can be averted by very small changes. Over reacting and having tantrums usually does more harm then good.

To be fair quite a lot was done to head those disasters off. CFC emissions have dropped drastically and the brazilian govenrment has dramatically altered it's policies toward forest preservation since those predictions were made. Global warming could still bite us all in the arse and we shouldn't be prepared to write it off as another chicken little hysterical fit just because the models we use to predict the net effects are inadequate. Rather we need to spend big bucks to learn now what the resulting climate will look like so we can decide what price we want to pay to alter that outcome and to what degree.

	19-02-2005 00:38									#124
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quote: I am no zealot, and certainly no tree-hugger, or anything like that. I just take the point of view, that there is a risk that we know little about, and therefore it is far better to play safe. Since the potential risk involves the whole world, then the whole world has to play ball. That's all I'm saying.

It might not be a correct course of action to play it safe. It might be several orders of magnitude incorrect. We don't know.

quote: I honestly, really resent that.

You're basing your opinions on emotion and vague belief rather than science. How could I describe this in terms that wouldn't make you resentful?

	19-02-2005 00:39									#125
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quote: Originally posted by Drogue Mercs and BMWs are crap compared to US cars? Love to see some evidence of that! Moreover our looking at luxury brands like Rollys Royce, how can that be badly made with that many high skilled workers putting in that many man hours?

http://www.jdpower.com/news/release....asp?ID=2004037

The top ten brands are 1) Lexus 2) Cadilliac 3) Jaguar 4) Honda 5) Buick 6) Mercury 7) Hyundai 8) Infinity 9) Toyota 10) Mercedes Benz

Ten worst: 1) Hummer 2) VW 3) Porche 4) Scion 5) Mazda 6) Nissan 7) Kia 8) Suzuki 9) Saturn 10) Land Rover.

Top ten has 4 Japanese, 3 America, 1 British (American owned), 1 German, 1 Korean.

The Bottom Ten: 4 Japanese, 2 American, 2 German, 1 British, 1 Korean.

	19-02-2005 00:42									#126
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin OK, I'm a geologist and I'm going to tell you that you are full of crap. Atmospheric CO2 changes widely depending upon organic activity and, most importantly, volcanism. When Krakatoa went off temperatures world wide went down 5-10 degrees and CO2 went up 10%-15%. That's how insignificant we are in the big picture. One volcano can put out more then all humans combined. A portion of this warming is likely natural and a portion is likely man made (mostly from deforestation not industry). Lowering emissions will help some what if you can do it globally (not bloody likely) instead if you really want to do the most good instead you should plant a tree.

I know it vairies, but the level of CO2 level was lower during glacials, wasn't it?

	19-02-2005 00:44									#127
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quote: Originally posted by Geronimo To be fair quite a lot was done to head those disasters off. CFC emissions have dropped drastically and the brazilian govenrment has dramatically altered it's policies toward forest preservation since those predictions were made. Global warming could still bite us all in the arse and we shouldn't be prepared to write it off as another chicken little hysterical fit just because the models we use to predict the net effects are inadequate. Rather we need to spend big bucks to learn now what the resulting climate will look like so we can decide what price we want to pay to alter that outcome and to what degree.

I agree that action should be taken but excessaive damage to the economy isn't necissary or helpful. Instead the best possible thing the US could do is raise the gasoline tax by $0.50 and spend the money on mass transite. Switching from coal to cleaner natural gas power plant, or best of all Nuclear, would help as well. Better housing codes requiring more insulation will lower energy usage and large scale tree planting will suck up excess CO2.

Those things wll help and costs are moderate while Kyoto won't help on a global scale and the costs are not moderate. That's why I am against Kyoto but for the alternative.

	19-02-2005 00:45									#128
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quote: Originally posted by DanS It might not be a correct course of action to play it safe. It might be several orders of magnitude incorrect. We don't know.

Yeah....I see how playing it safe could be an incorrect course of action. NOT!!!!

quote: You're basing your opinions on emotion and vague belief rather than science. How could I describe this in terms that wouldn't make you resentful?

I know...tact comes hard to some people.

Asmodean

	19-02-2005 00:46									#129
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin OK, I'm a geologist and I'm going to tell you that you are full of crap. Atmospheric CO2 changes widely depending upon organic activity and, most importantly, volcanism. When Krakatoa went off temperatures world wide went down 5-10 degrees and CO2 went up 10%-15%. That's how insignificant we are in the big picture. One volcano can put out more then all humans combined. A portion of this warming is likely natural and a portion is likely man made (mostly from deforestation not industry). Lowering emissions will help some what if you can do it globally (not bloody likely) instead if you really want to do the most good instead you should plant a tree.

I see this a lot and everytime I have checked it out it has turned out that volcanos - even during large eruptions - emit significantly less CO2 than modern net CO2 emissions from burning of fossil fuels. Are you sure you got your information about krakatoa from a reputable source and if so can you direct me to the same source?

	19-02-2005 00:47									#130
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quote: Originally posted by Odin I know it vairies, but the level of CO2 level was lower during glacials, wasn't it?

Sure it was. Humans have had an impact both in industry but primarially through deforestation. The best thing we can do is go after cleaner energy when ever possible and planet a trees every where we can to replace the vast forests we've cut down.

	19-02-2005 00:49									#131
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quote: Yeah....I see how playing it safe could be an incorrect course of action. NOT!!!!

This is a really insane position to take.

An example. I'm getting into a car this evening and driving 500 miles. I know for certain fact that taking a plane is much less risky to myself and others. However, I am still driving because of cost and convenience. This is a rational decision and I'm not playing it safe. I'm not sweating this decision and I think I'm being reasonably responsible in my actions.

	19-02-2005 00:54									#132
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quote: Originally posted by Geronimo I see this a lot and everytime I have checked it out it has turned out that volcanos - even during large eruptions - emit significantly less CO2 than modern net CO2 emissions from burning of fossil fuels. Are you sure you got your information about krakatoa from a reputable source and if so can you direct me to the same source?

http://www.geocities.com/CollegePar...es-analysis.htm

Man made sources account for about 3.5%-4% of global green house gas production. We're small potatos.

Our big impact is that we are cutting down trees thus killing the biggest absorbers of green house gases.

It's funny to note that humans farting produces just over 3% of total green house gas production

	19-02-2005 00:54									#133
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin Sure it was. Humans have had an impact both in industry but primarially through deforestation. The best thing we can do is go after cleaner energy when ever possible and planet a trees every where we can to replace the vast forests we've cut down.

We should also build more long term wooden structures since a forest can only remove so much CO2 before forest turn over caused by decay of old wood causes the forest to no longer contribute to a net removal of CO2. This progress can be especially undone if such a forest is allowed to eventually undergo a large forest fire.

The only way to make CO2 removal from trees semi permanent is to build enduring wooden stuff out of the trees and then keep planting new ones to repeat the process. Trees can't make CO2 magically disappear. All they do is temporarily sequester it in the form of carbon locked up in the wood and other plant tissues.

	19-02-2005 00:55									#134
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The fact remains that you, and likeminded people are willing to bet the future of many coastal areas on your fears of losing lifestyle and money.

The fact remains that allthough I and likeminded people perhaps have an irrational fear of the unknown, and perhaps are not basing our arguments on science, we are basing our arguments on scientists. And there are plenty of them, even respected scientists, that recommend a safe course of action, involving lowering CO2 emissions.

That you are even willing to overhear them, says a lot about you, IMHO.

Asmodean

	19-02-2005 00:58									#135
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin http://www.geocities.com/CollegePar...es-analysis.htm Man made sources account for about 3.5%-4% of global green house gas production. We're small potatos. Our big impact is that we are cutting down trees thus killing the biggest absorbers of green house gases. It's funny to note that humans farting produces just over 3% of total green house gas production

heh, seriously what source do you use?


(erm I sure hope you knew you cited a humor page just now )

	19-02-2005 01:02									#136
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quote: The fact remains that you, and likeminded people are willing to bet the future of many coastal areas on your fears of losing lifestyle and money.

I don't know how you could say that's a bad bet, considering that your characterization of the risk is pretty much non-existant.

	19-02-2005 01:03									#137
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin I agree that action should be taken but excessaive damage to the economy isn't necissary or helpful. Instead the best possible thing the US could do is raise the gasoline tax by $0.50 and spend the money on mass transite. Switching from coal to cleaner natural gas power plant, or best of all Nuclear, would help as well. Better housing codes requiring more insulation will lower energy usage and large scale tree planting will suck up excess CO2. Those things wll help and costs are moderate while Kyoto won't help on a global scale and the costs are not moderate. That's why I am against Kyoto but for the alternative.

these are good ideas

However given the many ways the federal politicians found to spend the money generated by the 1980's hike in payroll taxes which was designed to keep SS solvent when the baby boomers retire, do you realy think they'd be any better at using gas tax revenue to improve mass transit?

	19-02-2005 01:06									#138
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quote: Originally posted by DanS I don't know how you could characterize that as a bad bet, considering that your characterization of the risk is pretty much non-existant.

at the very least it should help substantially drive up the value of my inland property. Sounds like a good bet from my pov

	19-02-2005 01:10									#139
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Yeh, if you can get an envirofanatic appraiser to account for this "risk."

	19-02-2005 01:12									#140
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quote: Originally posted by Asmodean The fact remains that you, and likeminded people are willing to bet the future of many coastal areas on your fears of losing lifestyle and money.

No, I'm not. I, and people like me, have offered a valid alternative with a graduated response instead of a knee jerk go for broke response Kyoto calls for. This is all about making our response being proportional to the threat. We have so little in the way of reliable data that it is only prodent to have a graduated response and adjust our tactics as more data becomes available.

	19-02-2005 01:13									#141
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Yeh, if you can get an envirofanatic appraiser to account for this "risk."

actually I meant when the coastlands are all drowned as Kyoto advocates predict

	19-02-2005 01:14									#142
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quote: Originally posted by Geronimo heh, seriously what source do you use? (erm I sure hope you knew you cited a humor page just now )

Opps, OK. My sources were based upon University lectures where as that page I just typed in "Green House Gas Sources" into google. Let me try again.

	19-02-2005 01:15									#143
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Dan, I am sick of you comparing the Eco-nuts with the scientists who are doing the research.

	19-02-2005 01:15									#144
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Geronimo: Well, then you should be rewarded for your foresight my good man!

	19-02-2005 01:17									#145
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quote: Dan, I am sick of you comparing the Eco-nuts with the scientists who are doing the research.

Many of the scientists who make it into the newspaper are polticians as opposed to scientists. You can spot them by their use of colorful language and models of unknown validity.

	19-02-2005 01:21									#146
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin No, I'm not. I, and people like me, have offered a valid alternative with a graduated response instead of a knee jerk go for broke response Kyoto calls for. This is all about making our response being proportional to the threat. We have so little in the way of reliable data that it is only prodent to have a graduated response and adjust our tactics as more data becomes available.

Then my point wasn't directed at you. You at least seem to acknowledge the threat, if not just ready to accept the consequences.

Look...I am no scientist, but many of those that are, are warning against this. You, Oerdin, may disagree with their findings, but grant me this: There are so many unknowns in this, that it at least warrants close scrutiny. Many (especially US) politicians seem to write the whole thing of to ramblings from eco-nuts and tree-huggers. That!! is the mistake here. Kyoto aside, what I want is for the problem to be taken seriously. At present, that is not happening.

Asmodean

	19-02-2005 01:24									#147
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I did find his which is interesting.from Ecology.com

This graph shows US production of CO2, EU production of CO2, and everyone elses production of CO2. Notice how the US and Europe are pretty much flat where as the 3rd world is rapidly expanding its production of CO2. You can cap the 1st world all you want but that's not where the big problem is; the big problem is with the 3rd world which Kyoto doesn't even touch. That's why Kyoto won't solve ay problems but will harm 1st world economies.

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	19-02-2005 01:24									#148
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All the scientists definitively say if you read carefully is that:

1. atmospheric CO2 levels have trended higher in direct relation to anthropic CO2 emissions.

2. Temperatures have been trending higher at a rate consistent to predictions based upon the expected greenhouse effect from anthropic emissions.

That's it really. The predictions of the results of this temperature increase are far more uncertain.

scientists agree that global warming appears to be occuring as a result of human activity but they do not agree on what the outcome will look like.

	19-02-2005 01:28									#149
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin I did find his which is interesting.from Ecology.com This graph shows US production of CO2, EU production of CO2, and everyone elses production of CO2. Notice how the US and Europe are pretty much flat where as the 3rd world is rapidly expanding its production of CO2. You can cap the 1st world all you want but that's not where the big problem is; the big problem is with the 3rd world which Kyoto doesn't even touch. That's why Kyoto won't solve ay problems but will harm 1st world economies.

[DanS]
These predictions are based on models of unknown validity
[/DanS]

I never said that Kyoto was good. I want the Bush administration to acknowledge that there is a potential problem, and then to work on a solution. As of now, they are doing neither.

Asmodean

	19-02-2005 01:28									#150
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quote: Originally posted by Asmodean You, Oerdin, may disagree with their findings, but grant me this: There are so many unknowns in this, that it at least warrants close scrutiny. Many (especially US) politicians seem to write the whole thing of to ramblings from eco-nuts and tree-huggers. That!! is the mistake here. Kyoto aside, what I want is for the problem to be taken seriously. At present, that is not happening.

The whole thing certainly needs more research funding. I'm not certain what you mean by take this seriously unless you mean jump on the Kyptp bandwagon. I'd be all for a Kyoto that doesn't let 3/4 of the world off the hook and sticks the minority with all the costs.