19-02-2005 01:26									#31
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quote: It certainly is an answer. If the other models don't fit, but one does, what other conclusion is one to make?

That it's a liberal conspiracy and the traitorous scientists are in league with Osama Bin Laden?

	19-02-2005 01:29									#32
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov It certainly is an answer. If the other models don't fit, but one does, what other conclusion is one to make?

Only if they can demonstrate they've considered all possible models, which could be tricky.

This is physics, not math. Strict proofs aren't on the menu.

	19-02-2005 01:32									#33
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov It certainly is an answer. If the other models don't fit, but one does, what other conclusion is one to make?

I was asking how they didn't fit! They're answering me by saying that they don't fit! It's circular reasoning!

I pointed out that the article is short on actual facts - I was hoping someone had a link to the actual scientific publication.

	19-02-2005 01:34									#34
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Kuci, that would be surprising, as academic studies are often published in expensive publications.

	19-02-2005 01:35									#35
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If someone has the name of the study, then I can probably access it through my school's subscriptions to various online databases.

EDIT: actually, all I need are the names, which are in the article. w00t

	19-02-2005 01:39									#36
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker If someone has the name of the study, then I can probably access it through my school's subscriptions to various online databases. EDIT: actually, all I need are the names, which are in the article. w00t

You lucky SOB, I wish I had that in my high school.

	19-02-2005 01:40									#37
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Kuci, regardless of this particular study, it is well established that humans have had an enormous effect on environmental change in the past 200,000 years.

Look at the midwest. Look at the absense of mega fauna in North America. Look at the Arizona desert. Look at ancient Mesopotamia. If you're not familiar with what has happened in these areas, then clearly you're not up to date on what the ecological and archaeological record has proven humans to be capable of.

This doesn't in itself prove that this study is correct, but in light of history, it sure seems pretty likely... especially now that we've been spewing crap into the atmosphere for about 200 years or so.

	19-02-2005 01:41									#38
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I find it funny that some people are still arguing that greenhouse effect gases don't have a greenhouse effect.

	19-02-2005 01:41									#39
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Unfortunately, the most recent publications I can find by a Tim Barnett are from January of 2004

	19-02-2005 01:42									#40
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quote: Originally posted by Oncle Boris I find it funny that some people are still arguing that greenhouse effect gases don't have a greenhouse effect.

Again, the only thing in the entire thread that I've said is that the article is very low on facts and justification.

	19-02-2005 01:42									#41
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker I was asking how they didn't fit! They're answering me by saying that they don't fit! It's circular reasoning!

You were doing so with the tone of "yeah, right." Not very scientifically-minded.

quote: I pointed out that the article is short on actual facts - I was hoping someone had a link to the actual scientific publication.

If you had read the article carefully, you'd see how it said the study has not been published yet.

	19-02-2005 01:44									#42
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quote: Originally posted by JimmyCracksCorn Kuci, regardless of this particular study, it is well established that humans have had an enormous effect on environmental change in the past 200,000 years. Look at the midwest. Look at the absense of mega fauna in North America. Look at the Arizona desert. If you're not familiar with what has happened in these areas, then clearly you're not up to date on what the ecological and archaeological record has proven humans to be capable of. This doesn't in itself prove that this study is correct, but in light of history, it sure seems pretty likely... especially now that we've been spewing crap into the atmosphere for about 200 years or so.

'well established' only extends back a few tens of thousands of years at most. The role of humans in the extinction of mega fauna in north america is still hotly debated.

	19-02-2005 01:45									#43
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btw, that the article comes to what is a correct conclusion does not somehow defend its argument. I could argue that the force of gravity decreases with the square of the distance because 1+1=2, but that would be a rather poor argument despite its correct conclusion.

	19-02-2005 01:49									#44
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quote: Originally posted by Geronimo The role of humans in the extinction of mega fauna in north america is still hotly debated.

The hell if it is; the people who think it was climate need to get a brain, the megafauna survived many previous glacials. that they disappear the same time people arrive is too much to be coincidence. I think these people just don't want to put the myth of the noble savage at one with nature to rest.

	19-02-2005 02:12									#45
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quote: Originally posted by Geronimo 'well established' only extends back a few tens of thousands of years at most. The role of humans in the extinction of mega fauna in north america is still hotly debated.

Its hotly debated whether or not humans were solely responsible for it. But its pretty established that we played a huge role in it. The archaeological record supports this.

But as far as the rest, we know that humans drastically alter every ecological niche that we enter. Its not always for the worse, but it certainly doesn't exclude negative changes either.

	19-02-2005 02:28									#46
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quote: Originally posted by JimmyCracksCorn Kuci, regardless of this particular study, it is well established that humans have had an enormous effect on environmental change in the past 200,000 years.

There's a difference between micro and macro effects. Only a complete idiot, and yes, I know there are many, would deny we have an impact in limited areas. What they deny is our impact on a global scale. They have soemthing of a point (of course, we're a global species and if we effect everywhere on the micro level, we've done it on a macro level). What this study does is say, only these models "of unknown validity" match the real world data. Incidentally, that would be what it takes to validate the models.

	19-02-2005 02:59									#47
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker Again, the only thing in the entire thread that I've said is that the article is very low on facts and justification.

And yet it claims distinct victory over any other theories, I knew there was a reason why Aggie liked it so much.

	19-02-2005 03:05									#48
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quote: And yet it claims distinct victory over any other theories, I knew there was a reason why Aggie liked it so much.

You can wait for the paper to come out. This is just them announcing what they have discovered. This is the norm in science.

Of course the fact that they are respectable scientists counts for nothing with you.

You can wait until the paper comes out to be officially pwned.

	19-02-2005 03:07									#49
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Why do conservatives hate the Earth so much?

	19-02-2005 03:07									#50
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon quote: And yet it claims distinct victory over any other theories, I knew there was a reason why Aggie liked it so much. You can wait for the paper to come out. This is just them announcing what they have discovered. This is the norm in science. Of course the fact that they are respectable scientists counts for nothing with you. You can wait until the paper comes out to be officially pwned.

Naah I'm just observing the behavior seems bizzarly similar.

	19-02-2005 03:08									#51
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quote: Originally posted by Odin The hell if it is; the people who think it was climate need to get a brain, the megafauna survived many previous glacials. that they disappear the same time people arrive is too much to be coincidence. I think these people just don't want to put the myth of the noble savage at one with nature to rest.

But there arent that many archaeologically documented megafauna kills. IIUC the current theory is that the megafauna were stressed by climate change, but this time the presence of human hunters pressed them over the edge. IIUC there are mathematical models showing that a small amount of hunting can have a huge effect on an already stressed population.

	19-02-2005 03:10									#52
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Why do conservatives hate the Earth so much?

theyre afraid it will be used to get them to do stuff they dont wanna do - kinda like liberals and Kurds

Did you see the thing i posted awhile back on neocons driving hybrid cars? Of course theyre not REAL conservatives.

	19-02-2005 03:11									#53
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quote: Why do conservatives hate the Earth so much?

Because they love dominating things to cover up their sexual inadequacies.

This time it's global warming; last time WMDs. It must hurt for them to be so wrong, so often.

	19-02-2005 03:17									#54
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The real reason is that government action is the only way to deal with such problems.

More frighteningly for them international governance is required to deal with this specific problem, which will render them subject to international law, which they hate.

The amusing thing is that it is going to happen whether they like it or not.

	19-02-2005 03:20									#55
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Nah. We could just throw a nuclear war and pretty much forget about the whole global warming thing.

	19-02-2005 03:20									#56
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The experts agree: Humans may or may not be responsible for global warming... let's have a nuclear war

	19-02-2005 03:21									#57
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon The present trend of warmer sea temperatures, which have risen by an average of half a degree Celsius (0.9F) over the past 40 years, can be explained only if greenhouse gas emissions are responsible, new research has revealed.

ok, how about there is a **** load of stuff we don't understand about the environment(and well everything), which is why we can't make a valid climate model?

	19-02-2005 03:36									#58
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Perhaps, but what we do know points to us.

There's no excuse for standing around holding our nobs. The energy pigs will have to be stopped. And that means you, Canada!

	19-02-2005 09:45									#59
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quote: Originally posted by Whoha ok, how about there is a **** load of stuff we don't understand about the environment(and well everything), which is why we can't make a valid climate model?

Except for one little ole thing y'all are fergettin'. If reality matches the model, it's a valid model.

	19-02-2005 09:48									#60
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Not true at all. Our ability to measure reality is limited.