08-03-2005 11:31									#61
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quote: Originally posted by Sava If China and the US are destined to fight WW3 against each other, I sure wish it would be over something more important than TAIWAN. for pete's sack!@ generally, I lean towards wanting Taiwan to remain democratic... I believe the overall solution to this situation would be to push for democratic reforms in China... then, when China becomes sufficiently "democratic" let them reunite... or hold a referrendum... but in all honesty, I could give half a **** about all this ****

Taiwan will merely be the spark that lights the fuse.

	08-03-2005 11:35									#62
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to tell the truth, I can care less about Taiwan.

I'm more concerned with N. Korea. That whole thing irritates me. No progress has been made since the war.

These countries should not be separate. oh well...

the reason why I don't care about Taiwan is because it's a non-issue. Neither the U.S. or China will ever do anything. It wouldn't be in their best interests. Although Taiwan themselves are the wildcard. They could decide to do something radical even though it's not in China's or the americans best interests. But I doubt they would wreck their country for that.

	08-03-2005 11:36									#63
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quote: Originally posted by GePap That does not make NK a client state anymore than Haiti is a client state of the US (or was int he 90's). Just like the uS does not want refugees, China does not want refugees, and a split Korea is also a weaker Korea, so it serves two purposes. That does not make it as client- if it were a client, why would it need nukes? A client state would never get nukes.

China has no problems enforcing its borders or sending refugees back to certain death. NK is a client state of China.

	08-03-2005 11:39									#64
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quote: Originally posted by Whoha China has no problems enforcing its borders or sending refugees back to certain death. NK is a client state of China.

Actually, China has a LOT of trouble doing so- if it were as you claimed, how could NK refugees climb into foreign embassies in Beijing? Estimates are that there are at least 100,000 illegal NKI refugees on the chinese side of the border. Why China would have an easier time than the US patrolling a long, mountanous border, I don't understand.

Oh, and NK is NOt a client of China. If it were, it would have no nukes. The evidence is pretty obvious and clear.

	08-03-2005 13:40									#65
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I believe they're bluffing, and building up military to back up the bluff. The economic cost of going to war is simply too high. In addition, war would be extremely unpopular due to the one-child policy.

The present state of uneasy peace has been going on for 56 years, and has survived a number of battles on small islands in the strait, decades of artillery bombardment, and air battles. There's no reason it can't go for another 50.

	08-03-2005 13:57									#66
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quote: Originally posted by DaShi Can't access the BBC from the mainland. So much bullying, and China has yet to build a formidable enough military to back it up. Chilling view of things to come?

For those of you blocked by the communist censors:

quote: Last Updated: Monday, 7 March, 2005, 15:30 GMT E-mail this to a friend Printable version China's intolerance of dissent As part of the BBC's China Week, Haoyu Zhang of BBC Chinese.com looks at the country's continued intolerance of any form of political dissent. Ever since President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao formally took power more than two years ago, they have called on officials to put people's interests first and help build a civil and harmonious society. All this comes against a backdrop of rising social tension, as many sections of Chinese society feel left behind by the economic boom. Achieving "harmony", however, seems to have meant that any dissenting voices are dealt with most swiftly and more harshly than ever before. Ding Zilin is a retired university professor in her 70s. For the past 16 years, she and a few others who lost sons and daughters during the 1989 Tiananmen massacre have been calling on the government to apologise. But in response, these women, known as the Tiananmen Mothers, have faced imprisonment, house-arrest, phone-tapping and constant surveillance. Since late February this year, as Beijing prepared for the annual meeting of China's parliament, it was almost impossible to get through by telephone to any of the known dissidents inside China. Their home numbers were either "no longer in service" or answered by a middle-age male voice, who responded: "Sorry, there is no such a person here". When the BBC finally reached Mrs Ding - at a secret mobile number supplied by another dissident - the conversation lasted only a few minutes. Mrs Ding first asked whether it was true that the European Union would soon lift its arms embargo on China, imposed in protest at the Tiananmen crackdown. "France and Germany have always put their business interest first," said Mrs Ding. "I hope that Britain will stand up for principle and I call on Mr Blair not to lift the embargo," she said. Mrs Ding told the BBC that she had already lost hope in the new generation of leaders in China. "I can't even go and get groceries without them following me and harassing me; neither Deng Xiaoping nor Jiang Zemin treated me as badly as ..." Then the line went dead. Zhang Xianling is another Tiananmen Mother. Her only son was killed during the protests. She has also been subjected to numerous arrests and daily harassments. "The police follow me wherever I go," said Mrs Zhang. "When I wanted to go to the shops, they even joked about running the errand for me." Mrs Zhang is also losing hope in the new generation of leaders. A couple of months ago, when some sympathetic people from Hong Kong posted boxes of printed T-shirts to her, she was arrested - just for receiving the T-shirts. "I guess some of the police officers feel bad about doing the things they do," said Mrs Zhang. "Their excuses are always that they stand to lose their jobs if they don't follow orders." Mrs Zhang does not subscribe to the theory that increasing economic prosperity in China will result in improved human rights. She said her group had written so many open letters to both President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, asking them to reconsider the government's position on Tiananmen. There were hopes the new leadership, which was not so closely implicated in what happened, would be more flexible. But the only response so far has been more surveillance and harassment. Rule of Law? China's government says it wants to "introduce the rule of law" as part of its drive to create a more harmonious society. Last week, Guo Guoding, a Shanghai lawyer who became known for defending dissidents and the more vulnerable members of society, had his office ransacked by police. He was accused of unspecified "illegal" dealings and of violating the constitution. Many in the Chinese legal profession know this fate all too well. Some even joke that there are more lawyers in prison than criminals. Lawyer Gao Zhicheng runs his own practice. He told the BBC that he was not surprised by his fellow lawyer's plight. "Well, he's made a name for himself and thus attracted a lot of attention," said Mr Gao. "Many lawyers are thrown into jail each year in China, because the more attention they attract, the more likely they'd expose the inherent evils in the current legal system," he said. Mr Gao has himself made a name for himself defending the weak. He said he had been questioned more than 20 times by the authorities this year. Mr Gao believes that ultimately change will have to come from the grassroots. "Hope lies with the people," he said. Reviving 'Old' China Feng Congde, one of the student leaders in 1989 who fled China, now lives in Paris and works as a China expert and a social science researcher. He agrees with Mr Gao's analysis. Mr Feng said that during his flight to the West, he was only able to evade police capture thanks to help from various underground qigong, or meditation, groups. "We university students were convinced that the way to change China was to model everything on the West," he said. He said he only realised after the experience that the real power of change and the real hope for political change lay with reviving the "old" China. "For thousands of years, these grass-root organisations and underground societies have always served as a counterbalance of power to the state," said Mr Feng. Mr Feng thinks that as China gains more economic freedom, increasing numbers of the grass-root societies will slowly revive and rehabilitate, and lead to change in China's political system. These groups, of course, need people to recruit. But even in Britain, just ask any of the tens of thousands of young Chinese students who flock into the many UK universities each year, the great majority of them either do not care or think that things are fine back home. Huang Hua, the general secretary of the Chinese Democratic Party in the UK, one of the many overseas Chinese dissident organisations, said he often meets with Britain's Chinese students and finds that they care very little about politics. But Mr Huang does see hope. "Occasionally you do run into a few bright young minds," he said. "They quickly realised, after only a few months in Britain, that the root malaise of China lies within the authoritarian system."

	08-03-2005 14:04									#67
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quote: Originally posted by GePap That does not make NK a client state anymore than Haiti is a client state of the US (or was int he 90's). Just like the uS does not want refugees, China does not want refugees, and a split Korea is also a weaker Korea, so it serves two purposes. That does not make it as client- if it were a client, why would it need nukes? A client state would never get nukes.

Ok, you can keep living in la-la land while the rest of us will acknowledge that the North Korea is utterly dependent upon the Chinese for its continuing existence. Without the Chinese there is no oil, little electricity, no coal, much less food, and little to no consumer goods. The Chinese keep propping up the North Koreans because they don't want a potentially hostile South Korea or worse US forces on their border. In there view it is better to have a troublesome puppet then completely independent foreigners.

Does anyone doubt North Korea would implode without Chinese help?

	08-03-2005 14:31									#68
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quote: Originally posted by DaShi Can't access the BBC from the mainland.

	08-03-2005 14:34									#69
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Even in the Chinese media there have been subtle hints of increasing repression of dissident. . .s .

As for rule of law, this unfortunate story was relayed to me fairly recently. During the winter break, a Chinese friend's brother ran away from his home (which he has done before). During this time he stayed in a shady area of a small turn. An area ripe with prostitutes and such. One day, he volunteered to babysit a prostitute friend's daughter. After this he was quickly threatened by the prostitute that if he didn't pay her ~$5000 USD, she would accuse him of being a child molester and have him thrown in jail. Unable to give her the money and foolish enough to even stay in the town, the prostitute made good on her threat and had him arrested. His family then arrived hoping to ask the police to release him as there was no evidence at all of harm or molestation to the child. To their surprise, the police asked for an equally large sum of money and threatened to put pressure on the entire family. His lawyer told him to pay, otherwise, my friend and his family risk losing their jobs and possibly being arrested on false charges.

	08-03-2005 19:02									#70
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quote: Originally posted by PLATO The question is: Will China stop at Taiwan if we don't defend it? They have already grabbed Tibet and part of India. They have invaded North Vietnam and set up a client state in North Korea. Now they threaten Austrailia if they even come out as supporting us? Not to mention that the number one espionage threat in the USA is China.

I don't think people here give a sh*t as long as the Chinese keep Wal-Mart's shelves stocked.

	08-03-2005 19:09									#71
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There's too much business between US, China and many others. The US couldnt really attack China because so many (including US) would be hurt by that. At the same time... China would be hurt just as well. China will bark and bark and bark... but they know themselfs any kind of bite would hurt them probably more than Taiwan is worth. What would they gain from it?? And besides... if Taiwan decides to fight back - well... I dunno if China could take it. If they did I think Taiwan would be a big mess - making it even less worth it for China to bother with it. And if the US does decide to help defend Taiwan that makes it just that much more harder for China and that much more less worth it.

You'll see a military build up on both sides for years to come. Nothing more.

	08-03-2005 19:11									#72
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Or... China will do something stupid - the US will step in and bit ch slap China back to the stone age.

	08-03-2005 19:15									#73
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china would never survive a long war without the use of nukes...they are the largest importers of oil and metal...and when a war would break out they will be lost in a matter of weeks with oil and metal

	08-03-2005 19:17									#74
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quote: Originally posted by My Wife Hates CIV Or... China will do something stupid - the US will step in and bit ch slap China back to the stone age.

	08-03-2005 19:48									#75
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin Ok, you can keep living in la-la land while the rest of us will acknowledge that the North Korea is utterly dependent upon the Chinese for its continuing existence. Without the Chinese there is no oil, little electricity, no coal, much less food, and little to no consumer goods. The Chinese keep propping up the North Koreans because they don't want a potentially hostile South Korea or worse US forces on their border. In there view it is better to have a troublesome puppet then completely independent foreigners. Does anyone doubt North Korea would implode without Chinese help?

See, the problem is, you are still wrong, andf you are wrong because you incorrectly equate one thing with another. You just stated that China has reasons to prop NK up- I agree. Then you state that this must make NK a puppet. That is were your logic falls apart. Just because China does something in its OWN interests does not mean that NK has to do what China tells them.

If China had total control over NK, do you think they would have nukes? Of course not, NK would not have nukes if it were a puppet of China, because NK would not 1. need nukes, 2. China would not want NK to have nukes.

Is that so hard to understand? It shouldn't be so hard, you know.

	08-03-2005 20:45									#76
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quote: Originally posted by GePap 2. China would not want NK to have nukes.

How do you know? If you get your client to nuke your enemies then you have plausible deniability. I would not put this beyond the Chinese political thought process.

	08-03-2005 20:49									#77
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Here is the Cato Institute's Executive summary of their brief on the China-Taiwan military situation as of February 2003:

quote: The China-Taiwan Military Balance: Implications for the United States by Ivan Eland Ivan Eland is director of defense policy studies at the Cato Institute and author of Putting "Defense" Back into U.S. Defense Policy: Rethinking U.S. Security in the Post–Cold War World. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Executive Summary China's economy is four times the size of Taiwan's and apparently growing at a faster rate; that economic disparity between China and Taiwan could eventually lead to a military disparity as well. Nonetheless, even an informal U.S. security guarantee for Taiwan against nuclear-armed China is ill-advised. Taiwan is not strategically essential to America's national security. Moreover, China has significant incentives to avoid attacking Taiwan. Perhaps the most crucial is that hostile behavior toward Taiwan would jeopardize China's increasing economic linkage with the United States and other key countries. Taiwan has several military advantages that it could exploit. First, Taiwan could use a "porcupine" strategy to deter China— Taiwan does not need to be able to win a conflict with a more powerful China; it needs only to inflict unacceptable damage on Chinese forces. Second, Taiwan would have the advantage of defending an island against an amphibious attack—an attack that is extremely hard to execute successfully. Prospects for a successful defense are enhanced because China would be unlikely to have strategic surprise; air or naval supremacy; or sufficient landing forces, fleet air defense, or naval gunfire support. Third, because of current Taiwanese naval superiority (including anti-submarine warfare capabilities) and deficiencies in Chinese fleet air defense and command and control, even a partial Chinese naval blockade would be difficult to carry out. Fourth, Chinese missile strikes on Taiwan could be countered with enhanced passive defenses and retaliatory strikes on the Chinese homeland by the superior Taiwanese air force. Rather than provide an informal security guarantee to Taiwan, the United States should sell that nation more arms to defend itself. President Bush has authorized the sale of more weapons, but Taiwan needs to spend more on its own defenses and actually buy the needed weapons.

http://www.cato.org/pubs/fpbriefs/fpb-074es.html

Taiwan seems to be formidable in its own right and it is not at all assured that a PRC attack would be successful even without US intervention.

	08-03-2005 20:54									#78
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quote: Originally posted by PLATO How do you know? If you get your client to nuke your enemies then you have plausible deniability. I would not put this beyond the Chinese political thought process.

And then you would trully be paranoid. NK nukes anyone offensively, and the country will be destroyed- hence China not only has to worry about refugees streaming on its border, plus whatever fallout comes its way, but then a unified Korea....all the things it does NOt want.

You know what, couldn't the Spviets have done the same thing? Let one of their puppet regimes get nukes, nuke the west, then deny responsiblity? The soviets had East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania and BUlgaria as puppets- most if not all those states had the money and technical knowhow to make nukes- why was it then that only the USSR in the whole warsaw pact had nukes? Cause it was of no use for the Soviets to let thier puppets have nukes.

Yet again, the best evidence against the arguement that NK is a puppet is what is currently going on. On the NK side itself, why would NK need nukes? Does not the puppet have several hundred Chinese nukes to back it?

	08-03-2005 20:57									#79
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quote: Originally posted by PLATO Taiwan seems to be formidable in its own right and it is not at all assured that a PRC attack would be successful even without US intervention.

Invading Taiwan would be one if not the hardest amphibious assaults ever attempted. The Chiense have to cross 100 miles plus of open ocean and then attack an Island with limited possible landing sites- its not like you can hit anywhere on the coast of an island as mountainous as Taiwan.

China is a couple of decades from having a fair chance of doing it on its own. The point is, China can scare people away from taiwan, and try to besiege them that way.

Oh, and China's economy is more than four times Taiwan- they are using GDP, not PPP numbers.

	08-03-2005 21:09									#80
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quote: Originally posted by GePap See, the problem is, you are still wrong, andf you are wrong because you incorrectly equate one thing with another. You just stated that China has reasons to prop NK up- I agree. Then you state that this must make NK a puppet. That is were your logic falls apart. Just because China does something in its OWN interests does not mean that NK has to do what China tells them.

So we agree that China has an interest in NK not imploding but disagree over NK being a puppet. I've pointed out how China provides a life line of just about everything and without that lifeline Pyongyang goes belly up and you're sole piece of reasoning has being that Pyongyang has nukes so it must be independent.

That fact remains the north needs China to survive and China finds it convent & ideologically is still married to it's cold war ally. China has simply decided that NK having nukes isn't a good enough reason to pull the trigger and end North Korea. I'm sure the Chinese big wigs don't like NK having nukes but they're more afraid of a unified Korea which is allied to the US and Japan. I'm not big on semantics so if you don't want to call North Korea a client state of China then you don't have to but please admite that China has an extreme amount of leverage and can decide to end Kim's regime simply by cutting off the flow of energy, fod, and raw materials.

	08-03-2005 21:14									#81
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quote: Originally posted by GePap And then you would trully be paranoid. NK nukes anyone offensively, and the country will be destroyed- hence China not only has to worry about refugees streaming on its border, plus whatever fallout comes its way, but then a unified Korea....all the things it does NOt want.

If China wanted a NK without nuclear arms then all it has to do is agree to the four party talks and tell NK that the life line ends unless they give up their nukes. At that point NK has no choice. However, the Chinese don't do this so they must feel the alternative is worse then NK having nukes.

	08-03-2005 21:28									#82
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quote: Originally posted by GePap And then you would trully be paranoid.

About Chinese long term ambitions? You betcha!

The question is: Why aren't you?

They certainly are doing everything they can to prepare for a war with the US and I don't recall us threatening them.

	08-03-2005 21:32									#83
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin I'm not big on semantics so if you don't want to call North Korea a client state of China then you don't have to but please admite that China has an extreme amount of leverage and can decide to end Kim's regime simply by cutting off the flow of energy, fod, and raw materials.

Semantics matter. As for cutting the regime off, yes, China can make NK's life unbearable. BUt what does China gain from that? Not having acted sooner, China is stuck now with a nulcear NK, and if it were to take concrete actions to make Kim behave throught economic strangulation, who knows what Kim would do, but whatever he did, China would have a problem on its border.

	08-03-2005 21:41									#84
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quote: Originally posted by PLATO They certainly are doing everything they can to prepare for a war with the US and I don't recall us threatening them.

Lets see:

Number of US troops in the Pacifc? 100,000 plus. Number of Chinese troops anywhere near the US? 0.
The US sells arms to what China terms a wayward province, even thought we acknowledge China's territorial claim. How curious.
Percentage of total world military spending done by the US? 49%.
Which state runs spy planes just outside the other's territory? You know, I have missed those Chinese spy planes over Catalina Island....

China is modernizing its military- OH MY GOD! HOW DARE CHINA BUY WEAPONS NOT 1970'S VINTAGE! ITS OBVIOUS THEY INTEND TO CONQUER THE WORLD BY TRYING TO GET A MODERN MILITARY!!!!


The difference is that I don;t see the Chinese "gearing up for war with the US". Any state wants a modern, capable military. China has a large but backwards one. Now they have the money to have a modern one. They are supposed to NOT modernize, to make the US feel safer??? Since when is that their priority?

Also, China has made its intentions with regard to Taiwan clear for 50 years. Have you ever asked yourself Plato, what the Chinese think of a foreign power stating openly that they will come to defend what you view as a separatist province 10,000 miles away form their home, and 100 from yours? What business of the US is that?

So there are cvountless reasons why I am not paranoid about Chinese intentions. A basic willingness to understand the Chinese position helps immensely. Try it one day.

	08-03-2005 23:05									#85
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Gepap makes some valid points.

	09-03-2005 05:28									#86
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Impossible...

	09-03-2005 05:37									#87
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Actually, China has a LOT of trouble doing so- if it were as you claimed, how could NK refugees climb into foreign embassies in Beijing? Estimates are that there are at least 100,000 illegal NKI refugees on the chinese side of the border. Why China would have an easier time than the US patrolling a long, mountanous border, I don't understand. Oh, and NK is Not a client of China. If it were, it would have no nukes. The evidence is pretty obvious and clear.

The US is hindered not by want of resources, but of politics. The Chinese problem if that they have very little control of the rural areas where those people are stashed away. China has however moved troops to the border, doesn't have any idiots fighting against that locally.

Britain,France,et all have nukes, and they could have been considered US client states could they not?

quote: Originally posted by GePap Number of Chinese troops anywhere near the US? 0.

Actually the Chinese have a bunch of peace keepers deployed in Haiti, have effective control of the Panama Canal, and are going through latin America making deals with like minded locals left and right, like this charmer:
"Da Silva and Hu set up a China-Brazil coordinating committee chaired by Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi and Brazilian Vice President Jose Alencar. In the joint communique released at the end of the summit, Brazil agreed that Taiwan and Tibet are inseparable parts of China and stated its opposition to any unilateral action aimed at separating Taiwan from China. The two sides agreed never to politicalize the human rights issue in world affairs, leaving it to each state to do as it wished internally to crush dissent. Beijing expressed its appreciation for Brazil's support in the United Nations convention on human rights– a forum that has made a mockery of the term. :

http://www.tradealert.us/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=1168
http://www.tradealert.us/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=1246

	09-03-2005 05:57									#88
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quote: Originally posted by techumseh China should be unified. It's time to end the civil war. One way or another.

	09-03-2005 05:58									#89
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quote: Originally posted by SpencerH The military situation is analogous to western europe in the 70's. American and allied forces could slow or stop an invasion for a while but without nukes (which is a completely unrealistic threat in this case) we could not stop the eventual Chinese 'takeover' of Taiwan.

Uh, if we stepped in, China would never even touch the beach.

	09-03-2005 06:01									#90
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quote: Originally posted by Sava If China and the US are destined to fight WW3 against each other, I sure wish it would be over something more important than TAIWAN.

Yeah, well, if Germany's going to take Alsace and Lorraine, you wouldn't think the death of Prince Ferdinand would set them off...