09-03-2005 07:22									#91
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Invading Taiwan would be one if not the hardest amphibious assaults ever attempted. The Chiense have to cross 100 miles plus of open ocean and then attack an Island with limited possible landing sites- its not like you can hit anywhere on the coast of an island as mountainous as Taiwan. China is a couple of decades from having a fair chance of doing it on its own. The point is, China can scare people away from taiwan, and try to besiege them that way. Oh, and China's economy is more than four times Taiwan- they are using GDP, not PPP numbers.

We did in Feb. of 1964. I was in the biggest Amphibious operation at that time since W.W.II. We landed on the Southeast coast of Taiwan near the city of Kaohsiung.
We had 2 Amphibious Sq. with 4 APAs 2 AKAs in each sq.
My ship the USS Navarro APA-215 carry 1,800 marines. Each KA could carry around 500 marines. Our APDs could carry around 50 Recon marines.
We had 2 carriers, USS Kitty Hawk and USS Hornet with their support and 2 CA Cruiser, the USS St Helena and the USS Providence with their support ships. There was over a 100 ships involved with this landing. We landed about 14,500 marine and we stay there around 10 or more days.
It can be done, we did it.

	09-03-2005 07:24									#92
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin So we agree that China has an interest in NK not imploding but disagree over NK being a puppet. I've pointed out how China provides a life line of just about everything and without that lifeline Pyongyang goes belly up and you're sole piece of reasoning has being that Pyongyang has nukes so it must be independent. That fact remains the north needs China to survive and China finds it convent & ideologically is still married to it's cold war ally. China has simply decided that NK having nukes isn't a good enough reason to pull the trigger and end North Korea. I'm sure the Chinese big wigs don't like NK having nukes but they're more afraid of a unified Korea which is allied to the US and Japan. I'm not big on semantics so if you don't want to call North Korea a client state of China then you don't have to but please admite that China has an extreme amount of leverage and can decide to end Kim's regime simply by cutting off the flow of energy, fod, and raw materials.

Or a bullet.

	09-03-2005 07:50									#93
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What people are missing is that China is very patient, but determined. They waited over 50 years to reclaim Hong Kong. I don't think they want a confrontation at this time, they'll just wait and keep building up their economy and their armed forces. When the time is right, Taiwan will fall into their hands like a ripe apple.

	09-03-2005 07:58									#94
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In my experience, there is little patience in China. I live in Hangzhou which is reknown for its laidback attitude; however, I'd never use the word pateint to describe the way of life here.

If China wants Taiwan to peacefully rejoin the mainland, why not curb all the "we will crush you!" rhetoric?

	09-03-2005 09:02									#95
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Posturing, propaganda, I guess. I'm pretty sure that if China does use force, it will be when their economic and military strength is much greater relative to the US and Taiwan. I'm sure they will wait until there's more international support and there's a less beligerent government in Washington. If I were them, I'd bide my time and wait for a good opportunity.

But in the end, I think they would prefer to use diplomatic, political and economic pressure for a peaceful settlement. Don't forget, China holds a large portion of the US debt. The Americans are not without vulnerabilities.

	09-03-2005 09:10									#96
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Yeah, well, to hurt the US they have to hurt themselves.

	09-03-2005 09:23									#97
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Also, China has made its intentions with regard to Taiwan clear for 50 years. Have you ever asked yourself Plato, what the Chinese think of a foreign power stating openly that they will come to defend what you view as a separatist province 10,000 miles away form their home, and 100 from yours? What business of the US is that?

The fact that they are historical allies from WW2 on word is good enough for me. The fact that they are a fellow democracy, a good trading partner, and there is a lot of US money invested on the island is just icing.

	09-03-2005 09:28									#98
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker Yeah, well, if Germany's going to take Alsace and Lorraine, you wouldn't think the death of Prince Ferdinand would set them off...

You are mixing up your wars. Alsace & Lorraine got taken by Prussia (soon to be Germany) in the Franco-Prussian war, WW1 was set off by the Arch Duke being shot, though France did retake Alsace at the end of WW1 (then lost it in 1940 but regained it in 1945).

	09-03-2005 09:43									#99
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quote: Originally posted by Joseph We did in Feb. of 1964. I was in the biggest Amphibious operation at that time since W.W.II. We landed on the Southeast coast of Taiwan near the city of Kaohsiung. We had 2 Amphibious Sq. with 4 APAs 2 AKAs in each sq. My ship the USS Navarro APA-215 carry 1,800 marines. Each KA could carry around 500 marines. Our APDs could carry around 50 Recon marines. We had 2 carriers, USS Kitty Hawk and USS Hornet with their support and 2 CA Cruiser, the USS St Helena and the USS Providence with their support ships. There was over a 100 ships involved with this landing. We landed about 14,500 marine and we stay there around 10 or more days. It can be done, we did it.

Uh, perhaps you're missing that you were not going up against 300,000 defenders and 1.5 million in reserve troops, not to mention massive waves of anti-shipping missiles as your ships start to get near the coast. Unless I'm missing something, you were talking about an unopposed landing which is an entirely different matter.

Basicly if the US had to outright invade Taiwan today by itself, it would not be a pleasant prospect even for them. If you don't have the US's naval and air capabilities it becomes unbelievably difficult.

	09-03-2005 10:22									#100
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin You are mixing up your wars. Alsace & Lorraine got taken by Prussia (soon to be Germany) in the Franco-Prussian war, WW1 was set off by the Arch Duke being shot, though France did retake Alsace at the end of WW1 (then lost it in 1940 but regained it in 1945).

I thought France started off with those in WWI.

	09-03-2005 14:07									#101
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quote: Originally posted by techumseh What people are missing is that China is very patient, but determined. They waited over 50 years to reclaim Hong Kong. I don't think they want a confrontation at this time, they'll just wait and keep building up their economy and their armed forces. When the time is right, Taiwan will fall into their hands like a ripe apple.

What people are missing is that Taiwan is very patient, but determined. They've waited for over 50 years to reclaim the mainland. I don't think they want a confrontation at this time, they'll just wait and keep building up their economy and political system. China will fall into their hands like a ripe kumquat.

	10-03-2005 04:28									#102
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Very cute. Not credible, but cute.

	10-03-2005 04:40									#103
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quote: Originally posted by Whoha The US is hindered not by want of resources, but of politics. The Chinese problem if that they have very little control of the rural areas where those people are stashed away. China has however moved troops to the border, doesn't have any idiots fighting against that locally. Britain,France,et all have nukes, and they could have been considered US client states could they not?

NO, they were not US client states- France and the Uk had indepent foreign policies all along- they were strong US allies, but the US had little say in internal politics.

quote: Actually the Chinese have a bunch of peace keepers deployed in Haiti

Wow, peacekeepers..lol.

quote: have effective control of the Panama Canal

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...wait, let me catch my breath....HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

I am sorry, but this by itself has shot your credibility down to bellow zero. Next time you make such a ridiculous statement, be sure its not a Panamanian you make it too.
Oh, and for your information- Panama does not recognize the People's Republic of China... in Panama, the Chinese embassy means the embassy of the Republic of China. Panama makes a fair amount of money from this charade. The PRC gives stuff to Panama to get it to switch, and Taiwan gives Panama stuff to keep the situation as is.

quote: , and are going through latin America making deals with like minded locals left and right, like this charmer: "Da Silva and Hu set up a China-Brazil coordinating committee chaired by Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi and Brazilian Vice President Jose Alencar. In the joint communique released at the end of the summit, Brazil agreed that Taiwan and Tibet are inseparable parts of China and stated its opposition to any unilateral action aimed at separating Taiwan from China. The two sides agreed never to politicalize the human rights issue in world affairs, leaving it to each state to do as it wished internally to crush dissent. Beijing expressed its appreciation for Brazil's support in the United Nations convention on human rights– a forum that has made a mockery of the term. : http://www.tradealert.us/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=1168 http://www.tradealert.us/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=1246

As fore what is left of this post, buying influence does nto equal boots on the ground, specially since soverign states get to do whatever the hell they want in terms of making friends with other states.

	10-03-2005 06:10									#104
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quote: Originally posted by techumseh Very cute. Not credible, but cute.

Sound like you. Except you just get annoying after a while.

	10-03-2005 07:17									#105
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quote: Originally posted by Mordoch Uh, perhaps you're missing that you were not going up against 300,000 defenders and 1.5 million in reserve troops, not to mention massive waves of anti-shipping missiles as your ships start to get near the coast. Unless I'm missing something, you were talking about an unopposed landing which is an entirely different matter. Basicly if the US had to outright invade Taiwan today by itself, it would not be a pleasant prospect even for them. If you don't have the US's naval and air capabilities it becomes unbelievably difficult.

Ge said it could not be done, I just showed that it could be done. And yes if we had to do it, we would have tons of air strike and other before we landed.

	10-03-2005 07:54									#106
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quote: Originally posted by GePap HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...wait, let me catch my breath....HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. I am sorry, but this by itself has shot your credibility down to bellow zero.

http://edition.cnn.com/SPECIALS/199...ries/operation/

A front company for the PLA controls both ends of the canal and some naval base real estate.

	10-03-2005 09:16									#107
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quote: Originally posted by Whoha http://edition.cnn.com/SPECIALS/199...ries/operation/ A front company for the PLA controls both ends of the canal and some naval base real estate.

Which is essentially completely irrelevant. The US still has effective control of the canal, especially since they can always quickly send in another military force to take control of the area if Panama doesn't toe their line in wartime. China isn't in a position to project any force in that area. Part of the current Panama Canal policy is special arrangements to quietly allow US subs to cross the canal. The reality is that if the Chinese company tried to block US acess to the canal during wartime, the Panamanian government would overrule them since they want to avoid a US invasion.

	10-03-2005 09:19									#108
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Why would China want to block US access to the canal? I'm sure Beijing is perfectly content with merely having spies on either end of the canal that can keep tabs on any American ships passing through...

	10-03-2005 09:40									#109
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten Why would China want to block US access to the canal? I'm sure Beijing is perfectly content with merely having spies on either end of the canal that can keep tabs on any American ships passing through...

I'm honestly not sure how much good that actually does China. US Carriers are too big to use the canal anyway and would go around South America. I'm pretty sure the way it works with US submarines is they just know a submarine has gone through the canal, not which one. Its also true that a substancial part of the US fleet is ordinarily based in the Pacific, and other ships currently in the Middle East would not be going through the canal to get to the area around Taiwan. The thing is only a portion of the US fleet is needed to deal with China, so keeping track of ships going through the Panama Canal isn't going to be that helpful since they have to worry about more than sufficient naval capability to defeat China regardless.

	10-03-2005 09:47									#110
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quote: Originally posted by Mordoch I'm honestly not sure how much good that actually does China. US Carriers are too big to use the canal anyway and would go around South America. I'm pretty sure the way it works with US submarines is they just know a submarine has gone through the canal, not which one. Its also true that a substancial part of the US fleet is ordinarily based in the Pacific, and other ships currently in the Middle East would not be going through the canal to get to the area around Taiwan. The thing is only a portion of the US fleet is needed to deal with China, so keeping track of ships going through the Panama Canal isn't going to be that helpful since they have to worry about more than sufficient naval capability to defeat China regardless.

But if thing got hot, I'm sure the Chinese there have some plans on how to hurt us.

	10-03-2005 09:57									#111
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hello to the universe Whoha inhabits:

THe Canal itself is run by a quasi public organization, so who own territory on the old canal zone is irrelevant to the every day operations of the Panama Canal. That a company has a contract to run the ports is utterly irrelevant to the ability of anyone to move throught the canal.

So yes, my hysterical laughter at utterly insane and complete wrong assertions by nuts that China "controls" the canal were fully justified.

	10-03-2005 10:23									#112
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quote: Originally posted by Joseph But if thing got hot, I'm sure the Chinese there have some plans on how to hurt us.

Its definately not so easy or clear what China can do here. Sabataging the canal so it is innopperable for a long period is actually pretty difficult. The canal is also a key route for shipping worldwide, so China risks angering alot of nations by doing so, and besides sanctions, certain nations do have the potential capability to intervene in this conflict in a militarily significant way. Its also true that the US is going to be tipped off to Chinese mobilization in preperation for an invasion significant in advanced due to satellite data, and may start moving forces from the Atlantic to the Pacific before China actually attacks Taiwan or the US declares war on China. If China actually launched what would be charactorized as a terrorist attack on the Panama Canal before the US even says its going to intervene on Taiwan's side, this guarantees that the US isn't going to back out of this conflict until they have stopped China from taking Taiwan.

Basicly screwing around with the Canal is far more trouble than its worth for China.

	10-03-2005 10:31									#113
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Why are people discussing this banal idocy? Heck, TAIWAN has control of the Canal, OMG! Evergreen has an butt ugly skyscrapper in Panama City.....the TAIWANESE will blow up MEXICO!!!

	10-03-2005 10:33									#114
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quote: Originally posted by GePap the TAIWANESE will blow up MEXICO!!!

Tease.

	10-03-2005 12:02									#115
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker Sound like you. Except you just get annoying after a while.

Annoying pseudo-left dilettantes is a bonus.

	10-03-2005 12:58									#116
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Why are people discussing this banal idocy? Heck, TAIWAN has control of the Canal, OMG! Evergreen has an butt ugly skyscrapper in Panama City.....the TAIWANESE will blow up MEXICO!!!

Evergreen is everywhere... they even have their own bottled water and symphony orchestra, in addition to a shockingly bad web design department.

	10-03-2005 20:25									#117
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quote: Originally posted by GePap hello to the universe Whoha inhabits: The Canal itself is run by a quasi public organization, so who own territory on the old canal zone is irrelevant to the every day operations of the Panama Canal. That a company has a contract to run the ports is utterly irrelevant to the ability of anyone to move throught the canal. So yes, my hysterical laughter at utterly insane and complete wrong assertions by nuts that China "controls" the canal were fully justified.

Ok, I'm not going to argue with you about how valuable to China that territory would be, or how much the ability to interdict travel through the canal from it would be, or any of your word mincing about whether or not China has absolute control of NK or not, but back to the argument at hand, China is playing the game every bit as much as we are, and they are not the innocent angels you make them out to be.

	10-03-2005 23:14									#118
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Lifting the European arms embargo is significant, and unpleasant development for US military interests. From Janes 1995 - and this is a DECADE old I cannot afford the subscription. Foreign or foreign assisted items are in bold face, I may miss a few because this is not my field of expertise, i.e. Chinese copies of foreign military hardware.

This is just one example I could have cited - I chose the first destroyer class listed - after submarines. They have ALOT of equipment they have imported from Russia and the Europeans, and yes even the US - look at the powerplants. Try looking at this and telling me that European arms imports to China are not significant.

Luhu (type 052) class DDG

Main machinery - 2 GE LM 2500 gas/turbines

Missles : SSM : 8 YJ-1 (Eagle Strike) (C-801) active radar homing to 40 km (possible extended range version) at 0.9 Mach, warhead 165 kg, sea-skimmer makes very hard to defeat
SAM : 1 Thomason-CSF Crotale octuple launcher

Guns : 2-100mm/56 twin (18 rounds/minute)
8 x 37mm/63 (4 twin) (180 rounds per minute)

Torpedoes : 6-324mm Whitehead B515 (2 triple) tubes. Whitehead A 244s : anti-submarine

A/S Mortars : 2 FQF 2500 (Chinese built)

Contermeasures : Decoys 2 SRBOC Mk 33; 6 barrelled Chaff launchers. 2 China 26-barrelled Chaff launchers.

Combat data systems : Thomson-CSF TAVITAC.

Radars : Air Search : Rice Screen #D G band. Hai Ying: G band.
Air/surface Search : Thompson-CSF Sea Tiger E/F band.
Navigation: I-band
Fire Control : Type 34-7G I band. Two Rice Lamp I band.
Sonars : hull mounted active search andattack, meium frequency.
VDS: active attack medium frequency.

Helicopters: 2 Harbin Z9A (Dauphin)

	10-03-2005 23:35									#119
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There is another way to look at this. Blowing lots of money on imported weaponry is going to hurt China's long term growth and economic power.

quote: Here is something to think about Peace is one big waste of equipment. -from antiwar play "Mother Courage and Her Children"

	11-03-2005 00:35									#120
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quote: Originally posted by Whoha Ok, I'm not going to argue with you about how valuable to China that territory would be, or how much the ability to interdict travel through the canal from it would be, or any of your word mincing about whether or not China has absolute control of NK or not, but back to the argument at hand, China is playing the game every bit as much as we are, and they are not the innocent angels you make them out to be.

No, the Chinese are no innocent angels, but at least you, unlike PLATO it seems, acknowledges we also play the game.