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Kalius
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Kriegsgewitter
Aug 2002 time: 16:30
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EDIT: X-post with Docfeelgood 
Precisely.
Think about it. It's easy to lift a bucket full of water, but to lift a bucket full of water and, say, 3 bags of cement, it's not terribly easy, easpecially when your weaker.
The trouble with prediction is that there is not enough information available at the time of the quake to predict. It's only afterwards we know what type of quake it was. Additionally, there is no set mathematical formula to say "At this depth and at this magnitude, there will be a tsunami". We simply haven't got a large enough population of tsunami to choose from.
Additionally, there are many other variables, such as water depth, postion of the moon, time of day, time of year.. again, we simply do not have the population size of tsunami required to make accurate inferences as to whether a tsunami will strike.
This only applies to centres like the Pacific Early Warning System, who are far away. If we have many buoys in the ocean, which is essentially an Early Warning System specific to that region, we can use motions of the water to predict a tsunami (because a 1m wave among 30m waves repeated many times post earthquake would generally mean a tsunami). As it stands though, we simply cannot predict when one will strike.
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Zulu Elephant
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Looks like there's going to be no tsunami. All the experts seem to be saying there wont be one and it seems that its only the news directors who are still holding out hope (and doc feelgood)
Wonder how many people died in the quake?
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Ned
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of Aptos, CA
Oct 1999 time: 21:30
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quote: Originally posted by Sn00py
I'm residing in Singapore at the moment and lastnight I felt a very long and dragging sway. It lasted about 2 minutes. I'm from New Zealand so I can identify earthquakes quite easily, seems a lot of Singaporeans didn't notice it.
I stood up and tried to feel the movement, just to make sure it wasn't just me being dizzy.
So this morning, I find out that there really was an earthquake at the same time I felt one. Now that I have felt the earthquake, I am going to be much more precautious, I don't want to be near beaches when one happens again. |
I live about a mile from the epicenter of the massive '89 quake. I moved here just after the quake, though. But for years we had significant aftershocks that were quite impressive. We still get quakes, but usually they are a long way off.
As well, I was in SoCal during the big quake of '72. Now for me, that was scary. It went on for about 1 minute, during which time the entire house was shaking violently and loudly.
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