01-04-2005 22:01									#61
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"I don't really care if his plan is good or not"

The battle-cry of the Bush supporter!!

Thanks, now I understand US politics.

	01-04-2005 22:11									#62
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin A Bush's solution is... to burden the economy twice as much? There is no getting around the fact that Bush's solution costs $2 trillion and doing nothing costs $1 trillion. That's twice the cost even a child knows that's a bad deal.

Bush's solution includes putting money into the private economy that will enchance its growth, while at the same time reducing the burden on the working by the natural growth in the retirement accounts.

	01-04-2005 22:14									#63
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quote: Originally posted by Kidicious SS is insurance, so they still get a benefit.

This makes no sense

	01-04-2005 22:17									#64
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Bush's solution includes putting money into the private economy that will enchance its growth,

The money comes from the private sector except what is borrowed from foreign buyers.

quote: while at the same time reducing the burden on the working by the natural growth in the retirement accounts.

?

	01-04-2005 22:18									#65
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quote: Originally posted by pchang This makes no sense

SS is insurance against growing too old and not having money to live on. Blacks who contribute to SS get this benefit.

	01-04-2005 22:22									#66
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Bush's solution includes putting money into the private economy that will enchance its growth, while at the same time reducing the burden on the working by the natural growth in the retirement accounts.

Most trained fund managers can't beat the market average so how well do you think Joe 6 pack is going to do on average? Also there is the mentioned problem of that extra $1 trillion dollars in debt which Bush wants' I'm guessing the drag of that $1 trillion in additional debt will be greater then any increases caused by individual accounts. It is simply wreckless to rack up an additional $2 trillion in debt just so Bush's backers in the financial market can get even richer.

	01-04-2005 22:27									#67
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Oerdin, if you simply put your money in conservative mutual funds, one will on the average earn around 10%. Bonds earn around 5%, but they are tax free, normally.

I think people will be limited in the things they can invest in so that they don't pull an Enron on themselves.

Regardless, making 10% on one's money is better than making nothing.

	01-04-2005 22:56									#68
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Personally, I'd cut benefits and raise the retirement age.

Raising retirement age, yes... but I'd cut the subsidies to the farmers and other subsides on food prices.

I mean, a quarter of Americans are super chunky - why not give the same money but let food prices raise to more natural levels?

EDIT: One big difference between bonds and stocks - bonds are fixed term. You know you`ll get your money back (otherwise Federal govt would lose all financial backing overnight).

Stocks need careful watching day to day and even minute to minute to get the best price back. There CAN be a higher return than bonds - but it's not guaranteed. Something like 80% of stock trades lose small amounts of money.

In other words - who pays for the people to watch the stock markets and trade at the right times, eh?

	01-04-2005 22:58									#69
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Oerdin, if you simply put your money in conservative mutual funds, one will on the average earn around 10%.

What low risk, 10% return mutual funds are you talking about?

	01-04-2005 23:15									#70
	Got spare money?

http://flagship3.vanguard.com/VGApp...&FundIntExt=INT

VTSMX from Vanguard

10.5% annualized total return since inception

	01-04-2005 23:18									#71
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quote: Originally posted by pchang Actually, older blacks suffer from heart disease and diabetes at a greater rate than the rest of the population. So, they do die younger (even after correcting for the gang violence).

On average non-whites do die earlier:
about 5 years earlier.

code:
        TOTAL                   WHITE                  NONWHITE

 STATES           TOTAL    MALE   FEMALE  TOTAL    MALE   FEMALE  TOTAL    MALE   FEMALE


UNITED STATES    75.37   71.83   78.81   76.13   72.72   79.45   71.25   66.97   75.39

Hope it works correctly.

The Website is here:
average life expectancy by state

ACK!

	01-04-2005 23:19									#72
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Your stat is true, but if you break it down some more you will notice that Asians live longer.

	01-04-2005 23:20									#73
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No, I didn't read it right, it's a 5 year difference.

ACK!

	01-04-2005 23:24									#74
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What Boshko is missing is that the obligation (i.e., debt) is the same under both scenarios (current v. Bush proposal). The only difference between the two is that the debt in the current system is implied by what has been promised by the government, while Bush's plan makes the debt explicit and runs it through the bond market.

Now you might say that the promises of the government aren't even good enough to wipe your bottomside with and therefore it isn't "debt." But if you start saying that, then I would suggest that you seriously examine the magnitude of the shaftitude for yourself once your turn comes around to retire.

There are no free lunches.

	01-04-2005 23:31									#75
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But in the old plan, I will see SS, in Bush's, I may not.

ACK!

	01-04-2005 23:34									#76
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quote: Originally posted by pchang http://flagship3.vanguard.com/VGApp...&FundIntExt=INT VTSMX from Vanguard 10.5% annualized total return since inception

Read the website and find out that it's moderate to moderate-high risk.

	01-04-2005 23:47									#77
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quote: Originally posted by Kidicious Read the website and find out that it's moderate to moderate-high risk.

Read more closely and you will see it matches the entire stock market (Wilshire 5000 index). It is moderate to moderate high risk because the stock market itself is rated as moderate to moderate high risk.

	02-04-2005 00:14									#78
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quote: Originally posted by pchang Read more closely and you will see it matches the entire stock market (Wilshire 5000 index). It is moderate to moderate high risk because the stock market itself is rated as moderate to moderate high risk.

Duh.

	02-04-2005 00:26									#79
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Oerdin

	02-04-2005 01:10									#80
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quote: But in the old plan, I will see SS, in Bush's, I may not.

And this is bad... why?

	02-04-2005 01:16									#81
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quote: Originally posted by DanS And this is bad... why?

Well gee, I don't know.

Maybe because I've been paying into it for 20 years already?

I deserve to have it when I retire?

I'd rather know I'm going to have it, than hope I'm going to have.

ACK!

	02-04-2005 01:32									#82
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quote: Originally posted by Tuberski On average non-whites do die earlier: about 5 years earlier.

And what you missed from the earlier part of the thread is that an very high number of minority males die young, which brings down the total average. Homocide is the number one cause of death for youn African American males. Infant deaths are also higher, so it pulls the whole group down.

A better study would only look at people who make it past 40.

	02-04-2005 01:52									#83
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quote: Originally posted by Ned I could accept this. However, I have heard differently in that blacks as a whole do not live long enough to take advantage of SS.

Ned, African American mortality statistics are skewed because of such high rates of death among young (usually urban) blacks who die from un-natural causes. But if you exclude those deaths, blacks actually live longer than whites on average.

Don't ask me to cite that, but I'm 90% positive its true.

Edit: Didn't realize there was a last page. This has already been said.

	02-04-2005 02:03									#84
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quote: Well gee, I don't know. Maybe because I've been paying into it for 20 years already? I deserve to have it when I retire? I'd rather know I'm going to have it, than hope I'm going to have.

(1) You will be compensated according to your contributions no matter the system we have.

(2) If you would prefer to invest 100% of your non-SS retirement fund in a riskless asset, such as government bonds, you would be able to do so. I think you're clinically insane for doing so, but different people have different risk preferences, and who am I to judge.

(3) If you wish to stay in SS entirely, you can do so. I would prefer that increasingly few people choose SS, but nobody's going to force you out of the system if your heart is set on it.

	02-04-2005 02:39									#85
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Well, all this proves is that statistics lie.

	02-04-2005 06:59									#86
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quote: Out of the frying pan, into the fire, as long as it's change it's good?

In this case, yes. Moving to a system that may be worse while opening up opportunities for reform is much better than sticking with a system we know is bad and is almost impossible to reform.

quote: My respect for you diminishes daily.

The feeling is mutual.

	02-04-2005 07:04									#87
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quote: The battle-cry of the Bush supporter!!

I'm not a Bush supporter in this case, really. I'm a supporter of Social Security reform and sadly Bush is the only one who has made a major push for it in decades. Who knows when we'll see another attempt if this fails?

	02-04-2005 07:08									#88
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: The battle-cry of the Bush supporter!! I'm not a Bush supporter in this case, really. I'm a supporter of Social Security reform and sadly Bush is the only one who has made a major push for it in decades. Who knows when we'll see another attempt if this fails?

I thought Clinton scrapped most of the Social Security system to pay off the national deficit? Sounds like a reform to me.

	02-04-2005 08:42									#90
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quote: Originally posted by DanS What Boshko is missing is that the obligation (i.e., debt) is the same under both scenarios (current v. Bush proposal). The only difference between the two is that the debt in the current system is implied by what has been promised by the government, while Bush's plan makes the debt explicit and runs it through the bond market. Now you might say that the promises of the government aren't even good enough to wipe your bottomside with and therefore it isn't "debt." But if you start saying that, then I would suggest that you seriously examine the magnitude of the shaftitude for yourself once your turn comes around to retire. There are no free lunches.

Ah good, FINALLY someone answers my original post. But under the current system the government is basically promising people who pay into the system that they're going to get SS eventually but the government doesn't have to find buyers to cover these promises and doesn't have to pay interest. To cover the private accounts, Bush will have to print a ****-load of bonds and find buyers and pay them interest. Since the whole basic premise of Bush's plan is that stocks are better investments than bonds, who the hell is going to buy all those bonds (at current interest rates)?